Job growth in early transition: Comparing two paths*

Small start‐up firms are the engine of job creation in early transition. We ask about differences in their growth across two different transition economies: Estonia, which experienced rapid destruction of pre‐existing firms, and the Czech Republic, which reduced the old sector gradually. We find that the majority of job growth corresponds to within‐industry reallocation. The within‐industry growth of small start‐up firms is similar in the two countries, in line with the convergence to Western industry firm‐size distributions. We also find similar patterns in the evolution of wage differentials between start‐ups and old firms and small differences in the extent of low‐wage employment in start‐ups across the two transition paths. JEL Classifications: J2, J3, J4, L1, O1, P2.     

Gross job flows in Ukraine

This paper documents and analyses gross job flows and their determinants in Ukraine using a dataset of more than 2200 Ukrainian firms operating in manufacturing and non‐manufacturing for the years 1998–2000. Job destruction dominates job creation in both 1999 and 2000. Another clear‐cut result of our analysis is the strong positive effect of new private firms on net employment growth. We also find an inverse relationship between job reallocation and size for both manufacturing and non‐manufacturing, while only in the latter sector is employment growth inversely related with size. The main focus of the paper is the effect of trade flows on employment adjustment in manufacturing. Our results show that both employment growth and job reallocation at the firm and two‐digit sector level are affected by strong exposure to import competition and product market competition in export markets. These effects are more pronounced when we consider trade flows to the world at large and to the EU than when the analysis is based on trade flows to the CIS. JEL Classifications: E24, F14, J63, P23.     

JOB REALLOCATION,FINANCIAL CRISES,AND POLICY REFORMS: EVIDENCE FROM KOREA

This article investigates the dynamic process of job reallocation across Korean firms from 1985 to 2013 focusing on how the 1997 Korean financial crisis and the subsequent reforms altered job flows. I find evidence that while job reallocation was moderate and acyclical before the crisis, after the crisis it substantially intensified and exhibited procyclicality. Particularly, the reshuffling of employment across firms from different industries and of different sizes significantly occurred during the crisis period. Examining job reallocation from a geographical perspective, I find that the driving forces of regional job reallocation rates depend on the local heterogeneity of industries and geography. (JEL J63, E32, R10)     

Effects of tariffs and real exchange rates on job reallocation: evidence from Latin America

Openness to international competition can lead to enhanced resource allocation in the end. While factor reallocation is essential if net benefits are to be derived from trade liberalization, the process generates costs both for transitioning workers and for employers undergoing personnel turnover. Net welfare gains depend on adjustment costs. Understanding of these issues has been hampered by data limitations. In this paper, we overcome some of these limitations by using new, harmonized measures on job creation and destruction for a number of countries in Latin America. We use these new series to investigate the impact of the removal of protectionism on net employment and gross job reallocation in Latin America. We find a robust pattern showing that reductions in tariffs and exchange rate appreciations increase the pace of job reallocation within sectors. We also find, however, some evidence of declining net employment growth as trade exposure increases. For example, we find some evidence that in the wake of tariff reductions, there is lower net employment growth.     

Worker turnover and job reallocation in Taiwanese manufacturing

The paper examines time-series patterns of job and worker flows in a newly industrializing economy (NIE). Using plant-level data from the Taiwan manufacturing sector, the cyclical behaviour of job reallocation and its relation with worker turnover is analysed. It is found that job reallocation and labour turnover are procyclical, at both the aggregate and (two-digit) industry levels. The share of worker turnover caused by gross job reallocation is 17%, suggesting the majority of observed worker turnover reflects rotations of positions that are neither created or destroyed. There is substantial heterogeneity in plant-specific job and worker turnover patterns. Job creation and job destruction rates are higher among small plants and private-sector plants. The private plants are more dynamic than public plants in terms of worker turnover. Controlling for year and industry effects, it is found that job creation and worker turnover are both higher in export-oriented industries.     

JOB REALLOCATION, EMPLOYMENT CHANGE AND AVERAGE JOB TENURE: THEORY AND WORKPLACE EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRALIA

We explore determinants of job reallocation, employment change and average job tenure in this paper. A model which associates technological advances with the process of economic growth is modified and analysed. The features of this model allow for the possibility of asymmetric behaviour when looking at the net change in employment. Workplace data from Australia (AWIRS95) are used to test the predictions generated from the model for both employment change and average job tenure. Results are presented that provide clear evidence as to the nature of workplaces in which net employment growth is concentrated. We find that employment growth is asymmetrically related to expected changes in demand for the output of the workplace. We also find that employment is lower for workplaces that are larger, older, have greater union density, offer higher relative earnings, or are operating in a more competitive environment. The impacts on average tenure are as expected from the model and from these changes in employment. Overall there is a substantial degree of agreement between the predictions of the model and our empirical results.     

HIGH AND LOW EARNINGS JOBS: THE FORTUNES OF EMPLOYERS AND WORKERS

The focus of the literature on the effect of job changes has been on the consequences of job destruction on the individual worker. In this paper we analyze the impact on the earnings distribution of both job creation and job destruction. We establish a link between job reallocation and the movement of workers into and out of the tails of the earnings distribution. Both job creating and job destroying employers shed jobs mostly from the middle and lower tails of the earnings distribution, although this is cyclically very sensitive. Labor mobility (triggered by job reallocation) is risky: mobile workers will generally end up in the upper or lower tail of the distribution rather than in the middle. If workers move across industry boundaries, they typically move to the lower tails of the distribution. In sum, the fortunes of workers depend on the fortunes of their employers.     

Structural change,savings and current account balance

Private savings have experienced remarkable divergences across countries in recent years. In this paper we use a new factor, economic structural changes, to explain the differences of private savings in developing countries and its impacts on current account balance. We point out that growth related structural changes can be decomposed into productivity changes and job reallocations, which will affect private savings differently through wage effect and labor reallocation effect. Wage variation resulting from productivity growth will increase private savings, while labor reallocation moving from low income to high income sectors will reduce savings. Using sector level data, we find strong empirical evidence that structural change patterns have a significant impact on private savings and current account balance. This result provides another way to understand the recent “savings glut” in East Asian countries and also has some implications for the large current account imbalance issue.     

NETWORK SEARCH: CLIMBING THE JOB LADDER FASTER

We introduce an irregular network structure into a model of frictional, on‐the‐job search in which workers find jobs through their network connections or directly from firms. We show network‐found jobs have higher wages, and thus better‐connected workers climb the job ladder faster. The mean field approach allows us to formulate heterogeneous workers' recursive problem tractably. Our calibration is consistent with several empirical findings because of a composition—not information—effect. We also introduce new model‐consistent evidence: Job‐to‐job switches at higher ladder rungs are more likely to use networks.     

Do unemployment benefits promote or hinder job reallocation?

According to recent and largely untested theories, unemployment benefits (UBs) could improve the extent and quality of job reallocation even at the cost of increasing unemployment. In this paper, we use a new set of yearly panel data from a large number of countries to evaluate empirically the relationship between unemployment benefits and job reallocation. Unlike previous work assessing the effects of UBs on labor market stocks, we focus on flows and rely on policy “experiments,” notably the introduction from scratch of unemployment benefits in many countries. We exploit the longitudinal nature of our data to lessen the potentially important selection, endogeneity, and omitted variable problems. We find a positive, sizable, and significant effect of the introduction of UBs on job reallocation, arising mainly from the job destruction margin although this effect fades away over time. These findings appear to be robust to changes in the countries in the sample, control variables or estimation methods. We discuss to what extent our results are consistent with equilibrium matching models with or without endogenous sorting of workers into jobs providing entitlement to UBs and stochastic job matching.     

Market institutions,labor market dynamics,and productivity in Argentina during the 1990s

This paper addresses the effects of policy shocks and structural reforms on the dynamic behavior of manufacturing job flows and productivity in Argentina during the 1990s, and the contribution of job reallocation to productivity. The main findings are: (a) shocks to labor taxes have allocative effects, while financial shocks have aggregate effects; (b) import tariffs appear to protect obsolete jobs; (c) sectoral differences in labor intensity, openness, financial dependence and workers’ strength shape the responses to shocks; (d) intra‐ and inter‐sectoral reallocations contribute positively to productivity; and (e) trade liberalization and labor market flexibilization favor reallocation and creative destruction.     

Productivity growth from an international trade perspective

This paper presents a framework to assess the relative importance of three key sources of productivity growth that international trade research focuses on: (1) inter‐industry specialization; (2) intra‐industry reallocation of resources across heterogeneous firms; and (3) technological progress. We illustrate how to apply the framework by deciphering the productivity dynamics of the Swiss manufacturing industry. We find that intra‐industry reallocations are the most important source of growth in aggregate total factor productivity, spurred by the productivity growth of large, incumbent firms and the entry of new firms. Inter‐industry specialization and general technological progress, nevertheless, remain important supplementary sources of productivity growth.     

Property Rights,Public Enforcement,and Growth

We study the link between public enforcement of property rights, innovation investments, and economic growth in an endogenous growth framework with an expanding set of product varieties. We find that a government can assure positive equilibrium growth through public employment in the enforcement of property rights, if the economic environment is sufficiently favorable to growth and/or if public enforcement is sufficiently effective. However, in terms of welfare, an equilibrium path without property‐rights protection and growth might be preferable. In this case, the enforcement of property rights involves too much reallocation of labor from production and research towards the public sector.     

Scientific personnel reallocation and firm innovation: Evidence from China’s college expansion

Given that the supply of scientific personnel is inelastic, the expansion of public research may negatively influence private research by driving up the wage of scientific personnel and reallocating them away from private sectors. China's massive college expansion since 1999 and labor market segmentation provide us with a unique opportunity to investigate such a reallocation effect on firm innovation. Consistent with the reallocation hypothesis, we find that China's college expansion negatively influenced firm innovation as well as regional innovation in the short run. Moreover, we provide direct evidence on scientific personnel reallocation by finding that when college expansion was more intensive, highly educated laborers were less likely to choose an industrial job, and those working in industries enjoyed a higher wage rate when holding a professional (research related) job.     

Globalization,Worker Mobility and Wage Inequality

In the present paper, I integrate frictional labor markets with on‐the‐job search into an otherwise standard heterogeneous firm model of intra‐industry trade. Most importantly, I show that the returns to workers' inter‐firm mobility are higher in a trade equilibrium than in autarky. Intuitively, by favoring large and productive firms, international trade amplifies the disparities in profitability between small and large firms. Hence, the returns to labor reallocation across firms rise. In view of the empirically observed higher inter‐firm mobility among high‐skill workers, this suggests a skill‐biased impact of trade liberalization.     

Worker flows, job flows and firm wage policies

Like many transition economies, Slovenia is undergoing profound changes in the workings of the labour market with potentially greater flexibility in terms of both wage and employment adjustment. To investigate the impact of these changes, we use unique longitudinal matched employer‐employee data that permits measurement of employment transitions and wages for workers and enables links of the workers to the firms in which they are employed. We can thus measure worker flows and job flows in a comprehensive and integrated manner. We find a high pace of job flows in Slovenia especially for young, small, private and foreign‐owned firms and for young, less educated workers. While job flows have approached the rates observed in developed market economies, the excess of worker flows above job flows is lower than that observed in market economies. A key factor in the patterns of the worker and job flows is the determination of wages in Slovenia. A base wage schedule provides strict guidelines for minimum wages for different skill categories. However, firms are permitted to offer higher wages to an individual based upon the success of the worker and/or the firm. Our analysis shows that firms deviate from the base wage schedule significantly and that the idiosyncratic wage policies of firms are closely related to the observed pattern of worker and job flows at the firm. Firms with more flexible wages (measured as less compression of wages within the firm) have less employment instability and are also able to improve the match quality of their workers. JEL Classifications: J23, J31, J41, J61, P23, P31.     

Endogenous growth with a limited fossil fuel extraction capacity

Campbell (1980) and following authors have discussed a limited resource extraction capacity as an augmentation of the well‐known Hotelling model. We integrate a limited extraction capacity and related investments in the endogenous growth model of Tsur and Zemel (2005) to study its effect on economic development. The capacity constraint gives rise to three effects. On the one hand, higher energy costs and the reallocation of production towards capacity investments decrease production available for consumption, research and/or capital investments (energy costs and reallocation effect). On the other hand, research investments may increase, which boosts available production (research effect). Depending on the capital endowment and the strength of the effects, long‐run consumption may be boosted or depressed. In particular, the capacity constraint may render everlasting consumption growth non‐optimal in a resource‐rich economy. Furthermore, we find that capacity investments may be postponed to later points in time if the capital endowment is high.     

Technology Shocks and Job Flows

We consider a version of the Solow growth model where technological progress can be investment specific or investment neutral. The labour market is subject to search frictions, and the existing productive units may fail to adopt the most recent technological advances. Technological progress can lead to the destruction of technologically obsolete jobs and cause unemployment. We calibrate the model to replicate the high persistence that characterizes the dynamics of firms' neutral technology and the frequency of firms' capital adjustment. We find that neutral technological advances increase job destruction and job reallocation and reduce aggregate employment. Investment-specific technological advances reduce job destruction, have mild effects on job creation, and are expansionary. Hence, neutral technological progress prompts Schumpeterian creative destruction, while investment-specific technological progress operates essentially as in the standard neoclassical growth model. Using structural VAR models, we provide support to the key dynamic implications of the model.     

Job Creation and Job Destruction in a Regulated Labor Market: The Case of Austria

We study Austrian job reallocation in the period of 1978 to 1998, using a large administrative dataset where we correct for spurious entries and exits of firms. We find that on average 9 out of 100 randomly selected jobs were created within the last year, and that about 9 out of randomly selected 100 jobs were destroyed within the next year. Hence, the magnitude of Austrian job flows seems to be comparable to other countries, similar to the well-known results of Davis et al. (1996) for the United States. Job reallocation appears to be driven primarily by idiosyncratic shocks. However, job creation increases significantly during cyclical upswings whereas job destruction rises in downturns. We also find substantial persistence of job creation and destruction. The pronounced pattern of job reallocation rates falling with firm size and age continues to hold when we use a set of controls. Finally, we show that – controlling for sector and firm size composition – Austrian job reallocation rates are only half the rates for the U.S. This result is not surprising given the impact of tighter regulation and labor law in Austria.     

Creative destruction with on-the-job search

This paper studies the consequences of creative destruction on unemployment in a frictional labor market with on-the-job search. For a benchmark calibration, a 1% increase in growth raises the unemployment rate by 1.72 percentage points in the economy without on-the-job search and by only 0.07 percentage points with on-the-job search. Rather than contributing to unemployment through more frequent job separations, in the presence of on-the-job search, creative destruction induces a direct reallocation of workers from low to high productivity jobs.