An Empirical Study of Suicide Terrorism: A Global Analysis

This paper provides the first venue‐based empirical investigation of the number and lethality of suicide terrorist attacks on a global scale. For 1998–2010, we assemble a data set of 2448 suicide terrorist incidents, drawn from the three main terrorist event databases, i.e., International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events (ITERATE), the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), and RAND. Our data set distinguishes between domestic and transnational suicide terrorist missions. For the quantity of suicide terrorism, we apply zero‐inflated negative binomial panel (country‐year) estimation for country‐specific variables and negative binomial panel estimation for attack‐specific variables. We also present linear regression panel estimations for the impact of suicide terrorism in terms of casualties per attack. Economic, political, and military variables, at times, differentially influenced the two kinds of suicide terrorism. A host of policy conclusions are drawn from the empirical findings.     

The Impact of Self‐Perceived Relative Income on Life Satisfaction: Evidence from British Panel Data

This is the first article that uses panel data to investigate the impact of individuals' self‐perceived relative income on life satisfaction. Analyses show that the self‐perceived relative income has a significant impact on life satisfaction, but the impact is asymmetric. The decline in life satisfaction is much more significant due to perceiving a lower relative income in comparison to the rise in life satisfaction because of perceiving a higher relative income. Absolute income is only significantly and positively associated with life satisfaction in the pooled ordinary least squares estimations, but the association is never significantly different from zero when individual fixed effects are controlled. Household savings have a positive but small impact on life satisfaction. Among different financial‐related shocks, people's self‐perceived relative income varies the most due to changes in household net income, total savings, and employment status.     

EXPLORING ATTRITION BIAS: THE CASE OF THE KHAYELITSHA PANEL STUDY (2000-2004)

Attrition bias is a problem for users of panel data. Researchers need to know what socio‐economic factors are associated with attrition, and whether this is of relevance for the kind of analysis they want to conduct. This paper discusses attrition bias in the 2000/2004 Khayelitsha panel study. It shows that women, shack‐dwellers and people living in smaller households are more likely to attrit, but that the impact of these variables on the probability of attrition is relatively small. The implications for labour‐market analysis are then explored using Mincerian earnings functions and a probit regression on whether respondents are wage‐employed or not. The coefficients generated using a restricted sample of non‐attritors do not differ significantly from those generated by the entire sample. This suggests that attrition bias in this particular data set is not a problem for this kind of labour market analysis.     

Immigrant Specificity and the Relationship between Trade and Immigration: Theory and Evidence

Studies routinely document that immigrant employment concentrates in non‐traded goods sectors and that many immigrants have low inter‐sectoral mobility. We consider these observed characteristics of immigrant employment with regard to the question of how immigration affects a nation's pattern of production and trade. We model an economy producing three goods; one is non‐traded. Domestic labor and capital are domestically mobile but internationally immobile. Allowing that some new immigrants will become specific to the non‐traded goods sector, the model indicates that the effects of immigration on output and trade depend importantly on the sectoral pattern of employment of both new and existing immigrants. Empirical investigation in a panel data set of OECD countries supports the model's prediction that immigration raises the output of non‐traded goods. Consistent with the model, we also find that immigration and trade are complements. Given its empirical support, the model's implications for immigration policy are then discussed.     

Monetary Policy Impulses and Retail Interest Rate Pass‐Through in Asian Banking Markets

This paper considers the integration of financial markets and mutual influences of monetary policies in the USA and Asia based on monthly data from 1994 to 2007. We used panel‐type and time‐series and quantile panel‐type error correction models to test the influences of expected and unexpected monetary policy impulses on the interest rate pass‐through mechanism in the financial markets of 9 Asian countries and the USA. The empirics show that if interest rate integration exists in the financial markets, the following effects are observed: (i) positive impulses of unexpected monetary policy will lead to an increase in the long‐run multiplier of the retail interest rate; (ii) the adjustment of retail interest rates with short‐run disequilibrium will lead to an increase in the long‐run markup; and (iii) the empirical results of quantile regression prove that when the interest variation is greater than the 0.5th quantile and unexpected monetary policy impulses are greater than the expected monetary policy impulses, the short‐run interest rate pass‐through mechanism becomes more unstable.     

An Evaluation of the Determinants and Implications of Panel Attrition in the National Income Dynamics Survey (2008‐2010)

Panel surveys offer a valuable tool for researchers to explore the dynamics underlying individual and household behaviours. The Achilles heel of panel data is attrition. This paper examines the determinants and implications of attrition in the first two waves of South Africa's National Income Dynamics Survey. Multivariate tests in labour market and health specifications show that there is some moderate evidence of attrition bias in estimated coefficients based on the non‐attriting sample. This bias can be seen in labour market specifications, in particular for men, and for Africans, and to a much lesser degree in health specifications, in particular for small samples of Whites. Researchers should take care when using the panel data set to generalise to the overall population.     

DOES SENDING FARMERS BACK TO SCHOOL HAVE AN IMPACT? REVISITING THE ISSUE

The Farmer Field School (FFS) is an intensive training program providing farmers with science‐based knowledge and practices, including integrated pest management. Recently there has been intensive debate as to whether or not this kind of training has any significant impact. Most case studies argue that the impact, in terms of a farmer's ability to reduce the use of pesticides while increasing yields, is significant. However, panel data studies using household panel data sets for Indonesia have not been able to confirm that this is the case. The present paper uses panel data available from previous panel data studies and applies a new model specification to reevaluate whether or not the FFS induces better performances among farmers enrolled in the program and also among their neighbors, who are expected to receive some spillover knowledge from the FFS alumna.     

Analysis of Impact of Urbanization on Environmental Quality in China

As a developing country with great regional disparities, China's rapid urbanization has had important impacts on environmental quality. In this study, the drivers‐mechanisms‐effects (DME) model is built, which shows how element agglomeration, scale growth, knowledge accumulation and industry evolution drive the environmental system to change during the urbanization process. An econometric regression model using provincial panel data is further constructed to empirically analyze the impacts of urbanization on environmental quality. It is shown that during the process of urbanization in China, element agglomeration and knowledge accumulation help to improve environmental quality but with weak positive effect, while growing urban scale and industrial structure have obvious negative effects on environmental quality. The “inverted‐U shape” (up first and then down) change in the environmental quality during China's urbanization process is obvious. It is critical that China concentrates on the transformations of both city development paths and urbanization models to reduce resource and environmental costs as much as possible.     

CAPITAL MOBILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: A PANEL DATA APPROACH

In this paper we are primarily concerned with assessing the degree of capital mobility in sub‐Saharan Africa. Using the methodology as proposed by Feldstein and Horioka (1980)—later termed the “Feldstein‐Horioka puzzle”—we test the hypothesis of perfect capital mobility against the alternative of imperfect capital mobility. Following Vamvakidis and Wacziarg (1998) and Isaksson (2000), provision is made in our model to show the dependency of the lesserdeveloped countries on international finance and aid and how a more open economy contributes towards improving the level of capital movement in these countries. We also assess the change in the degree of capital mobility over the time period in an effort to see whether institutional and political changes have been successful. We show that, compared to the region, South Africa is, to a large extent, more developed and should therefore play a leading role in the “African Renaissance”. Stationary panel data estimation techniques are applied to a sample of 36 sub‐Saharan African countries over the time period 1980–2000. The benefits of using one‐way error component models are derived from simultaneously employing time and cross‐section dimensions of the data, resulting in a substantial increase in the degrees of freedom. The fixed and random effects models enable us to acknowledge country heterogeneity within the panel, making provision for differences across countries like capital control policies, financial and capital market structures and exchange rate regimes.     

Major International Information Flows Across the Safex Wheat Market

We study information flows across four wheat futures markets on four continents: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE), South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), Euronext/Liffe and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT). Three approaches for studying information flows among non‐synchronous markets are applied: cointegration techniques, vector autoregressive analysis and multiple regression proposed. Although comparable underlying assets are traded in the four markets, our results indicate that no long‐run links exist among them. ZCE is by far the most endogenous market, and Euronext/Liffe is the most exogenous one. Finally, the model points to KCBT as the most influential and sensitive wheat market. Our findings indicate that the relative openness of the SAFEX wheat market supports information flows and linkages from KCBT and Euronext/Liffe. Therefore, our results suggest that more supportive policies to incentivise higher wheat production in South Africa are required to mitigate the impact of price shocks emanating from the global wheat markets.     

Dynamics of Capital Structure: The Case of Korean Listed Manufacturing Companies*

In this paper, we develop a model of dynamic capital structure choice based on a sample of Korean manufacturing firms and estimate the unobservable optimal capital structure using a wide range of observable determinants. Unbalanced panel data of Korean listed firms for the period 1985–2002 is used. In addition to identifying and estimating the effects of the determinants of capital structure, we take into consideration some Korea‐specific features, such as the structural break before and after the financial crisis and firms’ affiliation to chaebol business groups. Our results indicate that the optimal capital structure has been affected by the financial crisis. Although the results suggest that chaebol‐affiliated firms have higher optimal level of leverage and adjust their capital structure faster than non‐chaebol firms, firms’ leverage might be associated with factors other than chaebol‐affiliation, such as size, profitability and growth opportunity.     

Social Information “Nudges”: An Experiment with Multiple Group References

Social information “nudges” concerning how others perform typically boost individual performances in experiments with one group reference point. However, in many natural settings, sometimes due to policy, there are several such group reference points. We address the complications that such multiple group social information might introduce through an experiment. The boost to average performance is significant and comparable to the one group case. Between‐group inequality does not change. Individual inequality falls, however, because the boost is largest among the pre‐“nudge” very poor performers. Finally, the boost to average performance is highest when individuals freely choose their group affiliations.     

Determinants of the Demise of Terrorist Organizations

This article investigates the determinants of terrorist groups' failure by applying survival analysis in a discrete‐time specification. Our sample consists of a diverse set of 586 terrorist groups, in which just over 63% end operations (demise) during 1970–2007. We use RAND event data and Jones and Libicki terrorist group data. Findings show that the survival of terrorist groups is bolstered by diversifying attacks, having multiple home bases, locating in the Middle East, locating in a democratic country, and limiting reliance on transnational terrorist attacks. Moreover, larger groups have better survival prospects. Religious fundamentalist terrorist groups face better survival prospects than other terrorist groups. Terrorist groups located in a country with larger tropical territory are less likely to end operations; however, groups based in a landlocked country are more likely to fail.     

REVISITING THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS FOR AFRICAN COUNTRIES: PANEL SURKSS TEST WITH A FOURIER FUNCTION

This study applies the panel seeming unrelated regression of the Kapetanios‐Shin‐Snell (SURKSS) test with a Fourier function to investigate the time‐series properties of stock prices in five African countries (i.e. Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, South Africa and Tunisia) over the period of January 2000–April 2011. The empirical results from the univariate unit root and panel‐based unit root tests indicate that unit root hypothesis can not be rejected for these five countries under study. However, results from the panel SURKSS test with a Fourier function indicate that unit root hypothesis can be rejected for Egypt and Morocco, two countries under study. Our results indicate that the weak‐form efficient market hypothesis holds in the other three countries, namely, Kenya, South Africa and Tunisia.     

Wages and Wage Inequality in South Africa 1994–2011: Part 2 – Inequality Measurement and Trends

We analyse the long‐term trends in wage inequality in South Africa, using household survey data. We show that the trends in household income inequality are largely driven by changes in wage inequality. Given the detailed nature of our series we show that measurement issues and breaks in the series need to be dealt with in order to draw robust conclusions from the data. Most standard inequality measures show that wage inequality has increased over the period. Nevertheless the choice of measure matters, because there are different trends in different parts of the distribution. It appears that the distribution below the median has become more compressed, while the top of the wage distribution has moved away from the median. The inequality in the labour market translates into even higher inequality in society given that high earners tend to live together with other high earners while low wage individuals often end up sharing their incomes with the unemployed. Furthermore there are many South Africans with access to no wage income. Given the trends analysed here it is not surprising that overall inequality in South Africa has not come down or has even increased since the end of apartheid.     

Vertical Integration,Foreign Multinationals and Stigler's Hypotheses: An Empirical Test Using Malaysian Data*

In this paper the hypotheses on motives for vertical integration as proposed by Stigler are empirically tested using a panel dataset from Malaysian manufacturing under both fixed‐effects and random‐effects specifications. Because the degree of multinational participation is expected to influence the results of the regression estimates, empirical tests are conducted with and without controlling for the effect of foreign firms’ participation. Depending on model specifications, evidence is found in favor of Stigler's hypotheses where vertical integration is positively related to demand growth and industry concentration. This result is generally consistent with those found in other vertical integration studies. Significantly, the coefficient estimates of the growth variable are not significant and biased downwards if there is no control on the effect of foreign multinationals in the estimation process.     

Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Export on Urbanization: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports on urbanization in China. Using prefecture city‐level panel data covering China's 262 prefecture cities for the period 2004–2013 and employing a dynamic panel system generalized method of moments model with instrumental variable regression techniques, our study finds that FDI and exports have, on average, played a significantly positive role in China's urbanization. However, the impacts of FDI and exports on urbanization vary across regions. FDI has a positive and significant impact on urbanization in the coastal region but has no impact on urbanization in the inland region. Exports have a positive and significant impact on urbanization in both the coastal and inland regions, but the effect is much larger in the coastal region than in the inland region. The results imply that further attracting FDI inflows and promoting exports will contribute to China's urbanization, especially for the inland region.     

Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Nexus in Ghana: A Bayesian Quantile Regression Approach

This paper presents analysis of the relationship and dependence structure between stock returns and exchange rates in Ghana using data of daily periodicity from January 4, 2011 to July 31, 2014. Analyses are conducted by means of Bayesian quantile regression (QR) technique and multiple causality tests. Our findings suggest high dependence of the equity market on the foreign exchange market in Ghana, and that the link between the two markets follows the international trade‐oriented model more than the portfolio balance theory. We report that among the six exchange rates used, only the cedi–dollar registers instantaneous effect on the equity market.     

Dynamics of Child Malnutrition in Rural and Small‐Town Ethiopia

Improving the status of malnourished children, and preventing children from becoming malnourished, lies at the heart of several of the Sustainable Development Goals. While many cross‐sectional studies examine correlates of stunting, they largely cannot identify drivers of change in stunting. We use two waves of panel data from Ethiopia and incrementally larger sets of fixed effects to control for time‐variant observable characteristics and time‐invariant unobservable characteristics. After controlling for these potential confounders, our analysis reveals that many factors that are associated with stunting in the cross‐section do not impact stunting dynamics. We also estimate individual fixed‐effects regressions, separately, according to baseline stunting status. We find evidence suggesting that while improved societal conditions drive many children out of a stunted state, certain exogenous factors may lead previously healthy children to become stunted. Overall, policymakers and practitioners would be wise to consult research utilising both cross‐sectional and panel data analyses in order to more effectively target already stunted children as well as vulnerable children who may be at risk of becoming stunted.     

Income versus Consumption Inequality in Korea: Evaluating Stochastic Dominance Rankings by Various Household Attributes

Using four rounds (1999, 2002, 2005 and 2008) of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, the present paper examines determinants of household income and consumption levels and inequalities. Unconditional as well as conditional stochastic dominance tests are performed by year, by household heads’ characteristics (age, education, gender, health, marital status and occupation) and by household characteristics (household type, household size and degree of urbanization). Mean least squares regression techniques are used to predict conditional expectations. The residuals containing effects for each characteristic conditional on the remaining characteristics are then used for the stochastic dominance analysis employing extended Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests of first‐order and second‐order dominance in distribution of income and consumption. The results provide a detailed and up‐to‐date picture of inequality and poverty by subgroup in Korea, which helps in targeting particularly vulnerable groups. While inequality in disposable income is found to be substantial, consumption inequality is less substantial. Households headed by the elderly, the uneducated, the divorced, the widowed, females, and those with health problems are found to be the most vulnerable groups.