基于GWR模型的北京市住宅用地价格影响因素及其空间规律研究

通过选择住宅地价影响因素并设定量化标准、构建地理加权回归(GWR)模型对1997—2004年北京市住宅用地出让数据进行了统计及空间可视化分析,探索了不同影响因素对北京市住宅用地价格的影响及其空间差异性。发现北京市住宅地价多中心影响效应显现";生活质量型"较之"生活便利型"基础设施对住宅用地价格的影响更大;地铁与城市快速路对于住宅用地价格的影响具有明显的空间"互补效应";土地面积对地面单价影响显著。     

An Application of the Hedonic Price Model to the Perth Residential Land Market*

This paper presents the results of an application of the Rosen-Freeman hedonic price model to the Perth (Western Australia) residential land market. A sample of over two thousand market transactions is used to estimate the value of residential land attributes. Major emphasis is given to those particular land attributes that are subject to public regulation and to the policy implications that follow.     

城镇化、城乡消费比例和结构对居民消费间接CO2排放的影响*

本文利用投入-产出分析法计算了我国居民消费间接CO2排放量,并应用结构分解分析（SDA）方法分析了城镇化、城乡消费比例、消费结构等因素对居民消费间接CO2排放的影响。研究结果发现：（1）城镇化的扩张和消费结构的升级是增加我国居民消费间接CO2排放的重要因素,尤其是食品、居住和交通通讯是导致居民消费间接CO2排放的主要部门;（2）城乡消费比例和排放强度对居民消费间接CO2排放具有明显的抑制作用;（3）人均消费的提高对居民消费间接CO2排放增长贡献最大。最后,本文基于实证结果提出了减少我国居民消费间接CO2排放的政策建议。     

A model of the impact of transportation investment on land rents

A monocentric model of urban space with production and residential areas identified is exercised to indicate the possible impacts of transportation investments on land rents. The price elasticity of demand for outputs and the elasticity of the supply of inputs to the urban area are important determinates of the level of rents. The model is useful for identifying the distributional consequences of transportation investments, and has the potential of being used to identify optimal financing schemes.     

Location decisions under uncertainty and the urban model

This letter uses a simple urban model to analyze the impact of random transportation costs on residential location decisions of households. It is shown that such uncertainty steepens the fall of land prices with distance from the CBD and can, in a specific example, cause an increase in optimal city size.     

Market structure and credit procyclicality: Lessons from loan markets in the European Union banking sectors

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the market structure has an impact on procyclicality in the European Union bank loan markets. The cyclical responses of three types of bank loans (residential mortgage loans, consumer loans, and corporate loans) are quantified separately using the interacted panel vector autoregression model at the country level and the single-equation panel regression model at the bank level. Using a sample of 26 European Union countries, we find that the procyclical responses of residential mortgage loans and consumer loans are significantly stronger and prolonged when the banking sector is more concentrated or dominated by foreign banks. However, we find that there are nonlinear relationships between the market structure and credit procyclicality based on bank-level data. We also find some heterogeneities between advanced and transitioning European Union banking sectors. Finally, our findings confirm the leading role of residential mortgages in intensifying credit fluctuations.     

Commercial-to-residential land-use conversion and residential recentralization in large cities

I examine the long-term impact of a real estate bubble on the land-use patterns of Tokyo and Osaka from 1980 to 2003 and find that fluctuations in land prices reflected changing demand for commercial land relative to that for residential land, which, in turn, affected housing supply and residential location choices. During the real estate bubble, land developers favored commercial over residential development because the perceived productive value of commercial land increased sharply. Thus, daytime population in central cities increased and residential population fell. During the economic downturn, however, the demand for commercial space fell, houses were favored by land developers and residents were recentralized. My causal estimates show that the commercial-to-residential land-use conversion can explain approximately 9% to 16% of the housing starts after the bubble burst in Tokyo and Osaka, and their populations would have been reduced by 2% to 3% otherwise. The effect is more prominent in their central business districts. My findings provide a novel explanation for the recent changes in central neighbourhoods.     

Tradability and market penetration costs: Explaining foreign market servicing intensities

Industry level data shows striking differences among sectors in ratios of exports to FDI sales. We identify the elements behind the sectoral differences in the mode of foreign market servicing in the context of a general equilibrium model of monopolistic competition. Our calibration exercise shows that traditional margins such as transportation, fixed entry costs, utility weights, and dispersion of firm productivity are not enough to capture the observed sectoral differences, as is commonly assumed. We propose augmenting the model to allow for sectoral differences in intangible costs of operating in a foreign market in order to explain these observations.     

TRANSPORTATION COSTS,AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY,AND CROSS‐COUNTRY INCOME DIFFERENCES*

I study the role of transportation for development by introducing regional trade and a transportation sector into the standard two‐sector model of agriculture–nonagriculture. Low transport productivity can distort the allocation of resources across geographically dispersed production units within sectors and between agriculture and nonagriculture. I infer cross‐country transport productivity disparities from observed domestic transport costs and transport infrastructure stocks. “Endowing” rich countries with the transport productivity of poor countries would reduce their income by 10%. Combining transport productivity disparities with disparities in nonagricultural productivity and arable land the model yields a 50% higher rich–poor income ratio than the two‐sector model.     

土地双垄断情况下的收益博弈

本文通过重复信号博弈模型和双垄断模型,运用制度分析法来考察现有土地制度安排下地方政府和中央政府对土地利用的最优反应,结果显示:(1)中央政府对地方政府的监管成本过高,导致土地垄断利润分配过程中地方政府获利更大,进而催生了《土地管理法》;(2)现有地方土地资源利用完全不受限制,导致地方经济发展失去了中央宏观调控的约束。因此,本文提出相关对策建议。     

Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors

A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.     

基于MARKOV理论的扬州市土地利用结构预测

根据扬州市1996—2004年间的土地利用平衡表数据,求得这期间全市土地利用结构的平均转移概率矩阵,运用Markov理论,模拟并检验2004年全市的土地利用结构,发现模拟值与实际值基本吻合,说明运用Markov理论预测扬州的土地利用结构是可行的。由此对全市2010年和2020年土地利用结构变化作预测,结果表明:在今后十几年的土地利用中,耕地、园地会继续减少,工矿用地和交通用地将大幅上升,但是各自的年变化幅度都会降低,同时农村居民点用地会不断减少,表明土地集约化利用将会是扬州市未来土地利用的侧重点。建议扬州市今后能改善农用地结构、引进先进技术以提高农用地效益;同时积极挖掘存量建设用地,提高建设用地的利用率。     

Understanding errors in EIA projections of energy demand

This paper investigates the potential for systematic errors in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) widely used Annual Energy Outlook, focusing on the near- to mid-term projections of energy demand. Based on analysis of the EIA's 22-year projection record, we find a fairly modest but persistent tendency to underestimate total energy demand by an average of 2 percent per year after controlling for projection errors in gross domestic product, oil prices, and heating/cooling degree days. For 14 individual fuels/consuming sectors routinely reported by the EIA, we observe a great deal of directional consistency in the errors over time, ranging up to 7 percent per year. Electric utility renewables, electric utility natural gas, transportation distillate, and residential electricity show significant biases on average. Projections for certain other sectors have significant unexplained errors for selected time horizons. Such independent evaluation can be useful for validating analytic efforts and for prioritizing future model revisions.     

A Simple Model of Recent Changes in the Residential Property Market*

A simple model of the Australian residential property market incorporating two form of tenure, owner occupation and renting, is developed. While the supply of housing services is common to both tenures, the demands of tenants and owner occupiers are independent and separate. The equilibrium values of rental and house prices are determined simultaneously in the two sectors. The model is then used to qualitatively assess the likely effects on rents and house prices of some important elements of the September 1985 tax package.     

The effects of urban transportation changes: A general equilibrium simulation

This paper uses a general equilibrium simulation model of residential land use to study the long-run effects of transportation changes in a closed city. The effects considered here include the aggregate benefits from and income distributional impact of the changes, in addition to the induced alterations in the physical characteristics of the city and in the location and modal choice of different income groups. The paper breaks new ground in its treatment of modal choice in a location theory model. An interesting point brought out in the simulations is the welfare-interdependence of different groups resulting from their spatial interaction.     

基于ESDA的城市住宅地价时空分异研究——以南京市为例

通过对住宅地价样点数据的收集和处理,运用GIS空间探索性分析(ESDA)技术对南京市2000-2009年住宅用地出让地价进行了空间特征分析,生成数字地价模型,探索住宅地价空间分布规律,并通过空间分析技术从微观区位层次来研究地价时空差异。研究发现:南京市住宅地价呈现明显的单中心空间结构,并表现出点轴扩展模式;随着时间推移,南京市住宅地价空间结构不断反生变化,地价峰值中心开始向南、向东扩散;地铁快速交通、城市规划及环境等因素对地价时空变异起着重要的影响作用。     

The new long-term trend in the price of natural gas

A significant negative trend in the long-term price of natural gas at the wellhead is revealed from simulations with a partial equilibrium model of the industry in the United States. The model framework consists of a simultaneous equations system for production from reserves and for demands for production in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. We utilize a wide range of historical data to calibrate the model and then develop two sets of scenarios for future prices, one based on further industry development under current regulation, and the other based on deregulation and development of an open market for gas services. The key variables — price of natural gas, level of production and inground gas reserves — for the next 10 years improve for the consumer whether or not there is deregulation but the second scenario leaves the consumer better off sooner.     

市场潜力与西部地区资源开发

文章模拟了运输成本和市场规模变化情景下市场潜力指数的变化,模拟结果表明,大部分的西部省区在现阶段的运费水平之下,能够通过运输成本的降低有所受益。但是运输成本下降的空间十分有限,难以通过运输成本的降低根本的改善西部的市场通达性。因此现阶段,市场规模是造成东西部地区之间市场潜力差异的主要原因。西部大开发进程中,国家首先致力于改善西部的投资环境,进行了大规模的基础设施建设。但是运输成本降低在改善西部地区市场通达性的同时,也减小了西部资源东运的成本。西部地区市场规模狭小,东部地区强大的市场引力作用吸引了资源的东运和制造业的集聚,成为了阻碍西部地区资源开发的逆向作用力。要对抗东部沿海地区的强大集聚引力、实现西部地区的资源开发、促进西部地区的工业化进程,就必须改善西部地区的市场通达性。因此,在推进基础设施建设的同时,西部开发应该更加重视扩大内需,增强市场引力作用。     

Growth,economic structure,and residential distribution of a small city

This article presents a growth model of a small open city with economic structure and geography. The city which is located along a line segment has three, industrial, services and housing, sectors. The spatial growth model of a small city synthesizes the main ideas in some important models in the neoclassical growth theory, urban economics, and the literature of economic growth of small open economies. We show that the dynamic system has a unique equilibrium. We also simulate the motion of the urban economy over time and space. The unique feature of our approach is to treat production activities, economic structure, residential distribution, capital accumulation, and consumption on the basis of microeconomic mechanism as an integrated whole. Our simulation provides some important insights into the processes of the urban economic growth. For instance, under certain conditions, when the industrial sector’s productivity is increased, the wage rate, price of services, capital intensities of the services and industrial sectors, and per-worker output levels of the two sectors are increased. The total labor supply, the capital stocks employed by the three sectors and the labor forces by the service and industrial sectors are all increased. The shares of the three sectors are not affected by the technological change in the long term, even though the shares are initially affected. The per capita consumption level of the industrial goods rises and the consumption level of services falls. The land and housing rents are increased and the consumption of housing per household falls. Moreover, the current account balance tends to be more in surplus and the growth rate is increased.     

Optimal size of a residential area within a municipality

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the optimal size of a residential area within a municipality under different market structures. We find that under a private duopoly the optimal size of the residential area depends on the ratio between transportation costs and a negative externality due to congestion. The optimal size is the whole municipality when the ratio is low enough and a small area of the municipality when the ratio is high enough. The transition from a flat residential area to a more compact one is not continuous, so some large-enough residential areas are never optimal. Under a mixed duopoly the transition from a flat residential area to a more compact one is continuous as the ratio increases. By comparing the two cases we find that for intermediate values of this ratio a flat city is optimal for a private duopoly while compact cities emerge under a mixed duopoly.