Connecting Distributions with Power Tails on the Real Line, the Half Line and the Interval

Univariate continuous distributions have three possible types of support exemplified by: the whole real line , , the semi‐finite interval and the bounded interval (0,1). This paper is about connecting distributions on these supports via ‘natural’ simple transformations in such a way that tail properties are preserved. In particular, this work is focussed on the case where the tails (at ±∞) of densities are heavy, decreasing as a (negative) power of their argument; connections are then especially elegant. At boundaries (0 and 1), densities behave conformably with a directly related dependence on power of argument. The transformation from (0,1) to is the standard odds transformation. The transformation from to is a novel identity‐minus‐reciprocal transformation. The main points of contact with existing distributions are with the transformations involved in the Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and, especially, the Johnson family of distributions. Relationships between various other existing and newly proposed distributions are explored.     

Moment convergence of M‐estimators

This study extends the rate of convergence theorem of M‐estimators presented by van der Vaart and Wellner (weak convergence and empirical processes: with applications to statistics, Springer‐Verlag, Newyork, 1996) who gave a result of the form r  to a result of the form sup_nE | r , for any p≥1. This result is useful for deriving the moment convergence of the rescaled residual. An application to maximum likelihood estimators is discussed.     

A J–function for inhomogeneous point processes

We propose new summary statistics for intensity‐reweighted moment stationary point processes, that is, point processes with translation invariant n‐point correlation functions for all , that generalise the well known J‐, empty space, and spherical Palm contact distribution functions. We represent these statistics in terms of generating functionals and relate the inhomogeneous J‐function to the inhomogeneous reduced second moment function. Extensions to space time and marked point processes are briefly discussed.     

On the Ratio of Fréchet Random Variables

The distribution of the ratio X/Y is derived when X and Y are independent Fréchet random variables. Extensive tabulations of the associated percentage points are also given.     

Derivation of a joint occupancy distribution via a bivariate inclusion and exclusion formula

Consider a supply of balls randomly distributed into n distinguishable urns and assume that the number of balls distributed into any specific urn is a random variable with probability function . The joint probability function and binomial moments of the number K_i of urns occupied by i balls each and the number K_j of urns occupied by j balls each, i≠j, given that a total of S_n=m balls are distributed into the n urns, are derived in terms of convolutions of q_x, x=0,1, . . . and their finite differences. Also, some illustrating examples are discussed.     

A law of large numbers for abstract random variables

Summary It was emphasized by Fréchet [8] that in many of the practical applications, we get, as a result of a random experiment, an abstract random variableX belonging to a setX. Givenn determinations of the variableX, an arithmetic meanZ _n is introduced in 2-. It reduces to the classical arithmetic mean, whenX is the set of real numbers. Moreover, if the random variableX is Gaussian, having a meanM(X), and belongs to a certain (4-) familyF, the introduced arithmetic meanZ _n constitutes an exhausting estimation [5] of the meanM(X).     

Sociological Models Based on Fréchet Random Variables

Products of random variables are of both practical and theoretical significance to social scientists. This has increased the need to have available the widest possible range of statistical results on products of random variables. In this note, the distribution of the product XY is derived when X and Y are independent Fréchet random variables. Extensive tabulations of the associated percentage points are also given.     

Scharfe untere und obere Schranken für die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Realisation vonk untern Ereignissen

Summary LetA ₁,...,A _n be events in a probability space (,A,W). We denote byL _k the event, that at leastk events among then eventsA ₁,...A _n occur, and byK _k the event, that exactlyk events occur. If only the inequalities _i W(A _i ) _i ,i=1,...,n, are known, we calculate sharp lower and upper bounds forW(L _k ) andW(K _k ). These bounds only depend onn, k and _i , _i ,i=1,...,n. They are relevant, when treating combined tests or confidence procedures.     

Acyclicity,anonymity, and prefilters

We analyze the decisiveness structures associated with acyclical collective choice rules. In particular, we examine the consequences of adding anonymity to weak Pareto, thereby complementing earlier results on acyclical social choice. Both finite and countably infinite populations are considered. As established in contributions by Donald Brown and by Jeffrey Banks, acyclical social choice is closely linked to prefilters in the presence of the weak Pareto principle. We introduce the notion of a conditional prefilter and use it to generalize their results. In the finite-population case, adding anonymity implies that the collection of decisive sets is a special case of a conditional prefilter. We then identify the decisiveness structure that results from adding anonymity to the weak Pareto principle. Moving to infinite populations, we obtain the decisive set that consists of the entire population as a possibility, along with a new class of prefilters that we refer to as symmetric free Fréchet prefilters. The choice of the term Fréchet prefilter is motivated by the observation that they share a defining property with the well-known Fréchet filter—namely, that all sets in the requisite collection are such that their complement is finite.     

Hierarchical models for independence structures of networks

We introduce a new family of network models, called hierarchical network models, that allow us to represent in an explicit manner the stochastic dependence among the dyads (random ties) of the network. In particular, each member of this family can be associated with a graphical model defining conditional independence clauses among the dyads of the network, called the dependency graph. Every network model with dyadic independence assumption can be generalized to construct members of this new family. Using this new framework, we generalize the Erdös–Rényi and the β models to create hierarchical Erdös–Rényi and β models. We describe various methods for parameter estimation, as well as simulation studies for models with sparse dependency graphs.     

Differentiability as convergence to perfectly competitive equilibrium

A concept of convergence to perfectly competitive equilibrium, called asymptotically no-surplus, is demonstrated for a sequence of exchange economies in which both the number of agents and the number of commodities is increasing. The no-surplus criterion for perfect competition represents an ordinal extension of the marginal productivity theory of distribution. Its asymptotic definition resembles a Fréchet derivative.     

Das maximale signifikanzniveau des Tests: “LehneH o ab,wennk untern gegebenen tests zur ablehnung führen”

Summary On one sample space there aren tests with critical regionsK ₁ and levels of significance _i ,i=1, ...,n (resp.n eventsK _i in a probability space with probabilities not greater than _i ,i=1, ...,n). In this paper we calculate the smallest upper bound of the level of significance of the test reject the hypothesis, if at leastk among the,n tests do so (resp. of the probability of the event at leastk among then events are realized). By the way, we will show, that this smallest upper bound does not change, if we replace at leastk by exactlyk.     

(No) Foundations of dominant-strategy mechanisms: a comment on Chung and Ely (2007)

This comment revisits Chung and Ely (Rev Econ Stud 74:447–476, 2007) in which robustly optimal auctions where investigated. Chung and Ely used a maxmin approach to define robust optimality. Chung and Ely provided conditions under which dominant strategy auctions are robustly optimal in their sense. This comment proposes a refinement of Chung and Ely’s criterion and shows that, with this refined criterion, dominant strategy auctions are not optimal if there are at least three bidders. According to the refinement the auctioneer should not choose dominated auctions, that is, auctions for which there exist other mechanisms that never generate lower expected revenue, and sometimes higher expected revenue. We construct such a dominating mechanism for dominant strategy auctions. The construction exploits the possibility of side bets when beliefs are not derived from common priors. Chung and Ely (Rev Econ Stud 74:447–476, 2007) admitted such beliefs.     

Ein allgemeines Konstruktionsverfahren für Konfidenzbereiche

Summary A theorem ofTakács concerning interchangeable random variables is used to derive a simple method for the construction of confidence regions. Applying this method to a location parametera we get a.s. convergence of the confidence interval toa if the sample sizen increases while its probability is (n–1)/(n+1). Under certain conditions the interval contains always the maximum-likelihood estimate and another estimate which results from a least squares postulate. Lower bounds are given for the probability that our intervals become shorter than the intervals we would get relying on the central limit theorem. In order to avoid an assumption of finite support needed first to derive the a.s. convergence, we modify our method omitting extreme values.The modified intervals converge forn with probability 1 to the true parameter value under weaker conditions. A lower bound for the probability and-using a result due toRényi-theasymptotic probability of the modified interval is given. For the two kinds of intervals a formula concerning the velocity of their convergence to the length 0 is derived.Finally, the results are extended to a shift parameter in the two-sample case. Here we derive for equal sample sizes the exact probability of the modified interval and give upper and lower bounds fir its asymptotic probability. The method is practicable also if one sample size is an integer multiple of the other.     

Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors*

Panel unit‐root and no‐cointegration tests that rely on cross‐sectional independence of the panel unit experience severe size distortions when this assumption is violated, as has, for example, been shown by Banerjee, Marcellino and Osbat [Econometrics Journal (2004), Vol. 7, pp. 322–340; Empirical Economics (2005), Vol. 30, pp. 77–91] via Monte Carlo simulations. Several studies have recently addressed this issue for panel unit‐root tests using a common factor structure to model the cross‐sectional dependence, but not much work has been done yet for panel no‐cointegration tests. This paper proposes a model for panel no‐cointegration using an unobserved common factor structure, following the study by Bai and Ng [Econometrica (2004), Vol. 72, pp. 1127–1177] for panel unit roots. We distinguish two important cases: (i) the case when the non‐stationarity in the data is driven by a reduced number of common stochastic trends, and (ii) the case where we have common and idiosyncratic stochastic trends present in the data. We discuss the homogeneity restrictions on the cointegrating vectors resulting from the presence of common factor cointegration. Furthermore, we study the asymptotic behaviour of some existing residual‐based panel no‐cointegration tests, as suggested by Kao [Journal of Econometrics (1999), Vol. 90, pp. 1–44] and Pedroni [Econometric Theory (2004a), Vol. 20, pp. 597–625]. Under the data‐generating processes (DGP) used, the test statistics are no longer asymptotically normal, and convergence occurs at rate T rather than as for independent panels. We then examine the possibilities of testing for various forms of no‐cointegration by extracting the common factors and individual components from the observed data directly and then testing for no‐cointegration using residual‐based panel tests applied to the defactored data.     

Multivariate gamma distributions with one-factorial accompanying correlation matrices and applications to the distribution of the multivariate range

Summary A new representation for the characteristic function of the joint distribution of the Mahalanobis distances betweenk independentN(μ, Σ)-distributed points is given. Especially fork=3 the corresponding distribution function is obtained as a special case of multivariate gamma distributions whose accompanying normal distribution has a positive semidefinite correlation matrix with correlationsϱ _ij=−a _i a _j. These gamma distribution functions are given here by one-dimensional parameter integrals. With some further trivariate gamma distributions third order Bonferroni inequalities are derived for the upper tails of the distribution function of the multivariate range ofk independentN(μ, I)-distributed points. From these inequalities very accurate (conservative) approximations to upperα-level bounds can also be computed for studentized multivariate ranges.     

Transformationen,die die Normalverteilung charakterisieren

Zusammenfassung Es sei A: R ⁿ R ⁿ eine Abbildung mit für jedes sei einn-dimensionaler Zufallsvektor. Wir beschreiben die Klasse aller TransformationenA, für die unabhängige, nachN(0, 1) verteilte Komponenten hat, sofern nur die KomponentenX ₁,...,X _n des Zufallsvektors ebenfalls unabhängig und identish Gaußisch verteilt sind mit Erwartungswert Null und Varianz 1. Weiter sind Bedingungen angegeben, die sicherstellen, daß nachN(O, ²) verteilte KomponentenX ₁,...,X _n hat, sofern dieX ₁,...,X _n unabhängig und und identisch verteilt sind. Zwei vonBeer undLukacs behandelte Transformationen sind Spezialfälle der hier untersuchten Transformationen.

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Summary Let A: R ⁿ R ⁿ be a transformation with the property for every . We consider a random vector and characterize the class of all transformationsA such that has independentN (0, 1) distributed componentsY ₁,...,Y _n if has the same distribution. Furthermore in the paper there are given conditions which ensure that hasN(O, ² distributed components if and are identically distributed and the componentsX ₁,...,X _n are independent, identically distributed random variables. Two of the transformations tried byBeer andLukacs are special cases of our transformations.

     

Stable Asymptotics for M‐estimators

We review some first‐order and higher‐order asymptotic techniques for M‐estimators, and we study their stability in the presence of data contaminations. We show that the estimating function (ψ) and its derivative with respect to the parameter play a central role. We discuss in detail the first‐order Gaussian density approximation, saddlepoint density approximation, saddlepoint test, tail area approximation via the Lugannani–Rice formula and empirical saddlepoint density approximation (a technique related to the empirical likelihood method). For all these asymptotics, we show that a bounded ψ (in the Euclidean norm) and a bounded (e.g. in the Frobenius norm) yield stable inference in the presence of data contamination. We motivate and illustrate our findings by theoretical and numerical examples about the benchmark case of one‐dimensional location model.     

Intra-national Purchasing Power Parity and Balassa–Samuelson Effects in Italy

Abstract

Considering a sample of 71 Italian metropolitan areas, this paper goes beyond the assumption that a unique core inflationary process exists in a macroeconomy. It shows that local long-run inflation rates can display remarkable variability. On the one hand they are negatively correlated with productivity growth; on the other, the less competitive the local retail sector, the higher is long-run inflation.

Parité de pouvoir d'achat intranational et effets Balassa–Samuelson en Italie

Résumé La présente communication, qui examine un échantillon de 71 zones métropolitaines en Italie, va au-delà de l'hypothèse de l'existence, dans une macroéconomie, d'un processus unique d'inflation de base. Elle démontre que les taux d'inflation locaux de longue durée font preuve parfois d'une variabilité remarquable: d'un côté, ils sont en corrélation négative avec l'expansion de la productivité, de l'autre moins le secteur local du commerce au détail est compétitif, plus l'inflation à long terme est élevée.

Paridad de poder adquisitivo intranacional y efectos Balassa–Samuelson en Italia

Extracto Este trabajo, que considera una muestra de 71 áreas metropolitanas italianas, va más allá de suponer que dentro de una macroeconomía existe un único proceso inflacionario básico. Muestra que los índices locales de inflación a largo plazo pueden exhibir una variabilidad significativa. Por una parte, se correlacionan negativamente con el crecimiento de la productividad; por otra parte, cuanto menos competitivo es el sector minorista local, más alta es la inflación a largo plazo.      

Moment (in-)equalities for differences of order statistics with different sample sizes

Summary Leto _j:n be thej-th order statistic andq _:n the -quantile of sample sizen. Ther-th moment of |o _j1:n1-o _j2:n2| is calculated in terms of hypergeometric distributions. This equality is applied to obtain moment (in-)equalities for |q _:n1-q _:n2|.