Did foreign banks stay committed to emerging Europe during recent financial crises?

Our objective is to investigate empirically the behavior of foreign banks with respect to real loan growth during periods of financial crisis for a set of countries in which foreign banks dominate the banking sectors due primarily to having taken over large existing former state-owned banks. The eight countries are among the most developed in emerging Europe, their banking sectors having been modernized by the middle of the last decade. We consider a data period that includes an initial credit boom (2005 – 2007) followed by the global financial crisis (2008 & 2009) and the onset of the Eurozone crisis (2010). Our two innovations with respect to the existing literature on banking during the financial crisis are to separate foreign banks into two categories, namely, subsidiaries of the Big 6 European multinational banks (MNBs) and all other foreign-controlled banks, and to take account of the impact of exchange rates during the period. Our results show that bank lending was impacted adversely by both crises but that the two types of foreign banks behaved differently. The Big 6 banks remained committed to the region in that their lending behavior was not different from that of domestic banks supporting the notion that these countries are treated as a “second home market” by these European MNBs. Contrariwise, the other foreign banks active in the region were involved in fueling the credit boom but then decreased their lending aggressively during the crisis periods. Our results also indicate that bank behavior in countries having flexible exchange rate regimes differs from that in those in (or effectively in) the Eurozone. Our results suggest that both innovations matter for studying bank behavior during crisis periods in the region and, by extension, to other small countries in which banking sectors are dominated by foreign financial institutions having different business models.     

Bankruptcy regime and the banking system

Banks’ behavior as creditors relies heavily on the content of legal rights granted by the national bankruptcy laws. Using a sample of 87 countries over the period 2005–2016, this paper investigates whether the degree of such legal rights influences the following banking indicators: (1) private credit, (2) bank lending-deposit spread, and (3) foreign banks’ presence. Robust dynamic panel estimates indicate a significant and positive impact only on foreign banks’ presence in countries with a high level of creditors’ protection and bankruptcy systems that encourage the survival of financially distressed firms.     

Foreign banks,financial crises and macroeconomic fluctuations

Understanding the implications of increased foreign bank presence is especially compelling in periods of financial crisis. In this paper, we explore this issue by examining the relationship between the involvement of foreign banks in the banking systems and the volatility of key macroeconomic variables in normal and crisis periods. Using a sample of 20 Emerging European countries from 1998 to 2013, we find that an increase in the assets of foreign banks in the banking system reduces output and consumption growth volatility in general but does not significantly affect the volatility of investments. However, these banks were found to play a significant role in increasing output, consumption and investment volatility in 2009. Our findings suggest that foreign banks’ harmful impact during the global crisis was only temporary and that they seem to help Emerging European countries stabilize macroeconomic volatility in normal times and after the global crisis.     

发展中国家内、外资银行信贷行为差异分析

众多发展中国家的金融改革实践表明,银行业开放的正负效应并不具有显著的国别一般性,特别是在信贷稳定性上,在东道国和外资银行母国经济运行的不同时期,外资银行与东道国国内银行的信贷行为可能存在较大的差异性,进而对东道国的经济金融稳定带来不同的影响。本文从全球范围内抽取了21个发展中国家（地区）和转轨国家中的400余家内、外资银行为样本,以其在2002～2010年间的相关数据构成面板数据集,来对内、外资银行在此期间的信贷行为差异进行检验。研究发现,外资银行的信贷行为确实与国内银行存在着差异性,主要表现在外资银行的信贷增长既表现出与东道国的经济增长显著正相关,又明显受到母国经济状况的影响;在经济正常的年份里,外资银行的信贷表现更多的取决于东道国的经济状况,而当外资银行母国发生经济危机时,却会对外资银行的信贷增长造成较大的负向冲击。     

The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth

This paper explores the finance–growth nexus in 14 countries from Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe (CESEE) over the 1995–2015 period. It investigates whether including two ‘non-standard’ variables, i.e. a credit cycle dummy and foreign bank relevance, deepens our understanding of the role of a typical financial determinant of economic growth, i.e. bank credit. We find evidence of a negative impact of bank credit on economic growth and the significance of cyclical fluctuations of bank credit. In contrast, a higher market share of loans granted by foreign-owned banks in a cyclical upswing and stock market capitalisation are found to have a proactive effect on growth.     

Credit in Times of Stress: Lessons from Latin America during the Global Financial Crisis

The 2008–2009 global financial crisis disrupted the provision of credit in Latin America less than in previous crises. This paper tests whether specific characteristics at both the bank and country levels at the onset of the global crisis contributed to the behavior of real credit growth in this region during the crisis. As shown, financial soundness characteristics of Latin American banks, such as capitalization, liquidity, and bank efficiency in the pre‐crisis period, played a role in explaining the dynamics of real credit during the crisis. We also found that foreign banks and banks that had expanded credit growth more before the crisis were also those that cut credit the most. Among country‐specific characteristics, we found evidence that balance sheet measures such as the economy's overall currency mismatches and external debt ratios (measuring either total debt or short‐term debt) were key variables in explaining credit growth resilience.     

Regional foreign banks and financial inclusion: Evidence from Africa

Regional foreign banks expanded quickly over the past decade in developing and emerging countries and have a growing influence in banking systems. We question whether the development of African regional foreign banks, also called Pan-African banks, influences financial inclusion of firms and households. To this end, we combine the World Bank Global Findex database and the World Bank Enterprise Surveys with a hand-collected database on the presence of regional foreign banks. We find that Pan-African banks presence increases firms’ access to credit and limited evidence that they favor financial access of the middle class by restoring confidence in banks. We suggest that this impact is related to the adoption of an aggressive strategy aiming at gaining market shares rather than through the exploitation of informational and technological advantages.     

Fiscal deficits,monetary reform and inflation stabilization in romania

Developing countries have witnessed an increase in foreign bank participation during the last decade. Using bank level data for the period 1991–2001, we examine the influence of foreign banks on the financing of small firms in Tanzania. Despite dominating the banking sector, results suggest that the financing of small firms by foreign banks is insignificant compared to domestic banks. Clearly, there is a need for a new approach to policy that will encourage significant foreign bank lending to small firms.     

Bank efficiency in South‐Eastern Europe

This study examines the cost and profit efficiency of banking sectors in six transition countries of South‐Eastern Europe over the period 1998–2008. Using a stochastic frontier approach, our analysis reveals that the average cost efficiency of South‐Eastern European banks is 68.59 percent, and the average profit efficiency is 53.87 percent. Regressions on the determinants of bank efficiency show that foreign banks are characterized by higher profit efficiency but lower cost efficiency, and government‐owned banks are associated with lower profit efficiency than domestic private banks. However, the efficiency gap between foreign‐, domestic private‐ and government‐owned banks narrows over time. We also find that the market power of a bank has a positive association with both cost and profit efficiency. Institutional development, proxied by progress in banking regulatory reforms, privatization and enterprise corporate governance restructuring, also has a positive impact on bank efficiency.     

The operation of the Mexican banking system under foreign multinational corporations’ control: new activities and traditional income

This paper discusses the operation of banks in developing economies dominated by foreign multinational corporations (FMCs), and argues that banks have acquired new activities without drastically modifying the composition of their income. This discussion takes place in the light of the profound changes in financial systems that have modified the linkages between banks, capital markets, businesses and households, during the period of globalization and financialization. The main argument of this paper is that although foreign multinational corporations have become dominant in developing countries, and bank activities have diversified, the multinational corporations of the banking sector still rely on interest margins, particularly from consumer credit. This is explained in terms of specific bank credit activities that operate under oligopolistic structures, a condition that has not being modified by foreign multinational corporations’ dominance in developing banking markets.     

Banking Sector Performance in Latin America: Market Power versus Efficiency

Since the mid‐1990s the banking sector in the Latin American emerging markets has experienced profound changes due to financial liberalization, a significant increase in foreign investments, and greater merger activities often occurring following financial crises. The wave of consolidation and the rapid increase in market concentration that took place in most countries has generated concerns about the rise in banks' market power and its potential effects on consumers. This paper advances the existing literature by testing the market power (Structure–Conduct–Performance and Relative Market Power) and efficient structure (X‐ and scale efficiency) hypotheses for a sample of over 2500 bank observations in nine Latin American countries over 1997–2005. We use the Data Envelopment Analysis technique to obtain reliable efficiency measures. We produce evidence supporting the efficient structure hypotheses. The findings are particularly robust for the largest banking markets in the region, namely Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. Finally, capital ratios and bank size seem to be among the most important factors in explaining higher than normal profits for Latin American banks.     

Declining US output volatility and its effect on labour flow volatility: an MGARCH analysis

This article examines the impact of the level and volatility of the real exchange rate on UK foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from the seven major countries of origin of the investment over the period 1975–2001. We use both fixed effects and dynamic generalized methods of moments (GMM) panel estimation techniques, and manufacturing data disaggregated by high and low R&D content of the sector of destination. Our results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on FDI flows into the UK, irrespective of the sector of destination of the investment. On the other hand, the level of the real exchange rate is found to have a statistically insignificant effect on FDI after controlling for endogeneity of the regressors.     

Global banking,global crises? The role of the bank balance-sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises

We examine whether shocks to leveraged creditors with cross border holdings have an incidence on debtor countries׳ risk of suffering financial turmoil. We construct a new proxy of shocks to international banks׳ balance-sheets using credit ratings and the structure of their international assets. This allows us investigating the effect of (foreign) bank balance-sheet shocks on domestic financial turmoil in a large sample of 146 developed and emerging economies from 1984 to 2011. Our proxies of shocks towards bank balance-sheets are strong predictors of systemic banking crises in their debtor countries. Confirming these results, bilateral bank flows significantly decrease when creditor banks׳ assets are hit by negative shocks, as measured by credit rating downgrades from third-party countries. Short-term liabilities towards global banks appear to increase roll-over and funding risks, thereby amplifying the impact of shocks to foreign lenders’ balance-sheets. Domestic banking sectors vulnerabilities, such as illiquid assets and a low deposit-asset ratio, are found to increase crisis contagion risk. In contrast, a high level of global liquidity attenuates the transmission of shocks to international banks׳ assets to debtor countries.     

WTO challenges and efficiency of Chinese banks

After joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001, China was given 5 years to completely open up its banking market for international competition. Chinese banks have been renowned for their mounting nonperforming loans and low efficiency. Despite gradual reforms, the banking system is still dominated by state ownership and encapsulated monopolistic control. How to raise efficiency is a key to the survival and success of domestic banks, especially the state-owned commercial banks. Two important factors may be responsible for raising efficiency: ownership reform and hard budget constraints. This article uses a panel data of 22 banks over the period 1995 to 2001, and employs a stochastic frontier production function to investigate the effects of ownership structure and hard budget constraint on efficiency. Empirical results suggest that nonstate banks were 8–18% more efficient than state banks, and that banks facing a harder budget tend to perform better than those heavily capitalized by the state or regional governments. The results shed important light on banking sector reform in China to face the tough challenges after WTO accession.     

Banking reforms,performance and risk in China

We investigate the impact of the banking reform started from 2005 on ownership structures in China on commercial banks’ profitability, efficiency and risk over the period 2000–2012, providing comprehensive evidence on the impact of banking reform in China. We find that banks on average tend to have higher profitability, lower risk and lower efficiency after the reforms, and the results are robust with our difference-in-difference approach. Our results also show that the Big 5 state-owned banks (SOCB) underperform banks with other types of ownership when risk is measured by non-performing loans (NPLs) over the entire study period but tend to have fewer NPLs than other banks during the post-reform period. Our results provide some supporting evidence on the ongoing banking reforms in China, suggesting that attracting strategic foreign investors and listing SOCBs on stock exchanges appear to be effective ways to help SOCBs deal with the problem of NPLs and manage their risk.     

Involuntary excess reserves,the reserve requirements and credit rationing in China

Using a sample of 95 banks that covers the period 2000–2011, this article examines Chinese banks’ credit lending behaviour in response to the changes in the reserve requirement ratio in the presence of involuntary excess reserves (IERs) in the banking system. The study finds that Chinese banks with positive IERs one period after a reserve requirement shock experience a significantly increased credit supply in response to an increase in reserve requirement ratio. However, the reserve requirements have no significant impact on the credit supply in Chinese banks that have negative IERs one period after a reserve requirement shock. This article sheds lights on the effectiveness of Chinese monetary policy, which uses reserve requirements as the primary tool to sterilize excess liquidity and restrain credit expansion.     

Competition and commercial banks risk-taking: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa region

This study investigates the relationship between competition and the risk-taking attitude of banks. We test how this relationship manifests in the Sub-Saharan African(SSA) region’s commercial banks in light of the competition-fragility view, using the generalized methods of moments. We studied 440 commercial banks in 37 SSA countries over the period 2006–2015. The results provide evidence that supports a positive relationship between competition and banks’ overall risk as well as their credit risk but suggests that off-balance sheet risk reduces with competition. We, therefore, conclude that the propensity to undertake higher risk in a competitive banking environment largely accounts for fragility as argued in the competition-fragility view.     

Do Financial and Institutional Variables Enhance the Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean? A Panel Cointegration Analysis

Using recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration tests and the Fully-Modified OLS methodology (FMOLS), this paper estimates the impact of remittances on the economic growth of selected upper and lower income Latin American & Caribbean (LAC) countries over the 1990–2007 period. Despite the large flow of remittances to the region, there have been relatively few empirical studies assessing the impact of remittances on economic growth in LAC. Panel unit root tests suggest that several of the macro variables included in the model exhibit unit roots, yet, at the same time, Pedroni’s panel cointegration test determined that there is a cointegrating relationship among the variables in the estimated model. The FMOLS estimates suggest that remittances have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in both groups of countries. The estimates also indicate that both the degree of economic freedom and credit provided by the banking system have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in upper (middle) income LAC countries. The sign of the interaction term between remittances and the credit (and EFI) variables suggest that remittances act as substitutes for these variables. Finally, the effect of remittances on both sets of countries is stronger in the presence of a financial (credit) variable.     

Does the Degree of Development Matter in the Impact of Banking Crises on International Trade?

This paper analyzes how a country's degree of economic development affects the impact of banking crises on international trade. To this end, we estimate a gravity model of trade using a sample of 139 countries over the period 1975–2012. Our results show that middle income countries are generally the most negatively affected. In contrast, financial turmoil appears to have less impact on bilateral trade flows among high income countries and, more specially, among low income nations. The level of financial development, contract enforcement, as well as the extent of the use of banking credit within international trade all help to explain our findings.     

银行监管对银行业结构演进的影响——基于市场准入与经营范围监管视角的研究

文章以银行业集中度作为银行业结构的代理变量,实证检验了市场准入和经营范围的监管对一国银行业结构的影响。研究结果表明:(1)对国内银行市场准入的限制会增加银行业集中度,加强外资银行准入的限制则会降低银行业集中度;(2)发展中国家对于银行从事证券业务的限制更敏感;(3)发达国家对于银行从事保险和房地产业务的限制更敏感。拓展模型结果显示,放松外资银行准入会强化银行经营范围监管对银行业集中度的边际效应。