证券支持黑龙江、吉林两省西部地区农业机械合作社建立的可行性分析

随着我国人口红利逐年下降和城镇化进程不断加快,中国农村地区农业人口老龄化问题日渐突出,如不及时解决农村劳动力缺失的问题,十年之后中国粮食安全将难以保障。农业生产机械化是我国农业升级最为基础的部分,其高效的生产力可有效补充中国农村出现的劳动力缺口。但是我国耕地所属散乱,极不利于大型农机作业,只有将各户土地集中使用,才能解决我国农业生产机械化最棘手的问题。本文以东北西部地区为样本剖析农业机械化生产的收益构成,研究农村合并耕地成立农业机械合作社的可行性。本文借鉴国内外较为成熟的证券化理论,结合东北地区实际情况,首创的提出利用证券市场加速我国农业升级的构想。     

Rural Poverty: Old Challenges in New Contexts

Poverty is still a predominantly rural phenomenon. However,the context of rural poverty has been changing across the world,with high growth in some economies and stagnation in others.Furthermore, increased openness in many economies has affectedthe specific role of agricultural growth for rural poverty reduction.This paper revisits an ‘old’ question: how doesgrowth and poverty reduction come about if most of the poorlive in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture? What isthe role of agricultural and rural development in this respect?Focusing on Sub-Saharan Africa, and using economic theory andthe available evidence, the author comes to the conclusion thatchanging contexts has meant that agricultural growth is onlycrucial as an engine for growth in particular settings, morespecifically in landlocked, resource-poor countries, which areoften also characterized by relatively low potential for agriculture.However, extensive market failures in key factor markets andlikely spatial effects give a remaining crucial role for ruraldevelopment policies, including focusing on agriculture, toassist the inclusion of the rural poor in growth and development.How to overcome these market failures remains a key issue forfurther research. JEL codes: O41, Q10, O55     

Promoting Efficient Rural Financial Intermediation

Although governments have traditionally used subsidized creditprograms to promote agricultural growth, this approach has generallyfailed to improve incomes and alleviate poverty in rural areas.It has also led to the mistaken belief that rural credit programscannot be profitable. A new approach seeks to raise standardsof living in rural areas by casting the government in a veryd role—one of setting a favorable legal andpolicy environmentfor rural financial markets and addressing spec market failurescost effectively through well-designed and self-sustaining interventions.There is evidence that this approach can be highly successful.The Village Bank system of Bank Rakyat Indonesia has shown thatfinancial services can be extended to millions of low-incomerural clients without relying on subsidies. Indeed, the programhas generated enormous profits for the bank by using simple,innovative, and largely replicable techniques.      

Why Most Developing Countries Should Not Try New Zealand's Reforms

During the past decade New Zealand has introduced far-reachingreforms in the structure and operation of government departmentsand agencies. This model has attracted interest in developingcountries because it promises significant gains in operationalefficiency. But developing countries, which are dominated byinformal markets, are risky candidates for applying the NewZealand model. The author suggests that basic reforms to strengthenrule-based government and pave the way for robust markets shouldbe undertaken first.      

THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY: A Review of Its Operation and Effects on Developing Countries

Policy changes in the European Community (EC)—the world'slargest importer and, since 1986, exporter of agricultural commodities—mayhave significant effects on world markets and developing countries.This article investigates the EC's Common Agricultural Policy(CAP), its history, mode of operation, and the prospects andpossibilities for change, to bring out the implications of thepolicy for developing country exporters and importers. The hypothesisthat evolves differs from that of many studies in proposingthat an agricultural liberalization in the EC is unlikely toeffect any great change in world market prices over the firstfew years. Developing countries' principal gain from a liberalizationof the CAP would derive from increased stability of world marketprices, improved access to export markets, and a reduction inthe uncertainty currently caused by discretionary measures inthe EC.      

From Prices to Incomes: Agricultural Subsidization without Protection?

Drawing from the experience of the direct income support programsrecently introduced in the European Union, Mexico, and the UnitedStates, this article highlights problems that may arise whenthe agricultural sector of a developing economy moves from price-basedsubsidization to less distorted income support. Such programsare a step in the right direction, but as currently implemented,they have many shortcomings. Moreover, developing countriesmay lack the necessary supporting arrangements needed to makesuch programs effective. The article argues that the programsshould not restrict the use of land, that the programs shouldlast for a stipulated period of time, and that the fiscal costsshould be contained by linking income support payments to worldprices.      

Policies on Managing Risk in Agricultural Markets

Over the past dozen years, policymakers have largely abandonedlong-standing popular approaches for addressing risk in agriculturewithout fully resolving the question of how best to manage thenegative consequences of volatile agricultural markets. Thearticle reviews the transition from past policies and describescurrent approaches that distinguish between the trade-relatedfiscal consequences of commodity market volatility and the consequencesof price and production risks for vulnerable rural householdsand communities. Current policies rely more heavily on markets,even though markets for risk are incomplete in numerous ways.The benefits and limitations of market-based instruments areexamined in the context of risk management strategies, and innovativeapproaches to extend the reach of risk markets are discussed.      

LAND RIGHTS SYSTEMS AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Links between land rights and agricultural development providea conceptual framework to analyze land rights systems in Sub-SaharanAfrica. The discussion demonstrates that land rights in Sub-SaharanAfrica evolved in response to changing political, social, andeconomic conditions, often the results of governmental interventionsthat may not have been conducive to efficiency or equity. The evidence dispels some popular misconceptions about landrights systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is increasing individualizationof ownership, and in many areas possession has always been individual.Even in areas where communal ownership has been imposed, cultivationand possession remain with individual households and an increasingrange of rights to land are appropriated by the individual household.Existing and indigenous systems are not inherently equitable.Land sales and mortgaging by individuals are observed frequentlyin many areas where such transactions are not recognized underthe formal legal system. The lesson from others parts of the world is that efficiencyultimately requires formal recognition of individual land rights.That stage has not been reached yet in many parts of Sub-SaharanAfrica, but in many other parts the justification for a changein land rights arrangements already exists. The practical problemin such cases is the careful analysis of benefits and costs,including equity considerations.      

EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS: GROWTH, BENEFITS, AND POLICY CONCERNS

Since the mid-1980s, stock market activity has increased substantiallyin many developing countries. This article first examines themain characteristics of emerging stock markets and illustratesthe evolution of equity prices in these markets during the lastdecade. It then discusses the reasons for the markets' growthand assesses the extent to which they have been affected bydomestic policies and external factors. The authors discussthe likely benefits of these markets, the effects any abruptcorrection in stock prices could have for the economy, and theways in which these markets can be made more efficient.      

DUMPING AND ANTIDUMPING: THE RHETORIC AND THE REALITY OF PROTECTION IN INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES

A wide gap separates the rhetoric from the reality of protectionin industrial countries. Antidumping is the current realityof that protection. Protectionist interests stretch the definitionof dumping as far as they may to shelter actions against importsunder the antidumping umbrella. This article is about antidumping, in particular about the historyof antidumping regulation and its evolution under the GATT systeminto a major instrument of protection. The thesis is straightforward:antidumping is the fox put in charge of the henhouse—ordinaryprotection with a good public relations program. There is littlein its history to suggest that the scope of antidumping wasever more particular than protecting home producers from importcompetition, and there is much to suggest that such protectionwas its intended scope. The article has three sections. The first looks into the originsof antidumping regulation, the second examines contemporaryregulation (antidumping under the GATT), and the third summarizesthe significance of the first two.      

TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND COMMERCIALIZATION IN AGRICULTURE: The Effect on the Poor

Do the economic gains brought by technological innovation andcommercialization in agriculture work their way through to thepoor? The prevailing optimistic view is that they do. But thisview is not universal: some hold that these forces for changecan interact with, or even induce, institutional and marketfailure, with adverse consequences for the poor. Adherents of the pessimistic view point to real-world instancesin which the poor have failed to reap the benefits, or evenhave lost, from the technological change or commercialization.Where these effects have occurred we find that they are mostlyattributable to inelastic demand or adverse institutional features;often, when technology or commercialization has been blamedfor the decline in income of the poor, other—not necessarilyconnected—policies have in fact been responsible for thedamage. This article contends that the optimistic view is, by and large,correct: normally, technology and commercialization stimulateagricultural growth, improve employment opportunities, and expandfood supply—all central to the alleviation of poverty.The evidence does not offer much encouragement to an extensionof this view—that through "social engineering" the benefitsfrom technology and commercialization can easily be targetedtoward the poor; the limited opportunities for such targetingshould of course be seized.      

Principles of Financial Regulation: A Dynamic Portfolio Approach

Economists seeking explanations for the global financial crisisof 1997–99 are reaching consensus that a major factorwas weak financial institutions, which resulted in part frominadequate government regulations. At the same time many developingcountries are struggling with an overregulated financial system—onethat stifles innovation and the flow of credit to new entrepreneursand that can stunt the growth of well-established firms. Inparticular, too many countries are relying excessively on capitaladequacy standards, which are inefficient and sometimes counterproductive.The author argues that financial systems can be reformed successfullyusing a "dynamic portfolio approach" aimed at managing the incentivesand constraints that affect not only financial institutions'exposure to risk but also their ability to cope with it. Thearticle sets out general principles of financial regulationand shows how the dynamic portfolio approach can help countriesdeal with the special problems that arise during the transitionto a more liberalized economy as well as those that arise indealing with a financial crisis similar to the 1997 crisis inEast Asia.      

HOUSING AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN RUSSIA: ZHIVAGO'S LEGACY

The inadequacy of housing and its effect on the quality of lifego a long way toward explaining many aspects of Russian life,but little data has been available to determine how housingaffected the relative well-being of the citizenry. This paperpresents comprehensive data examining for the first time theeffect that seventy years of a socialist housing allocationscheme had on the distribution of income. It seems clear thathousing provided by the government or by employers has a valuethat can be measured to yield useful inferences about the distributionof income and wealth. This article shows that housing allocation had a progressiveeffect on the distribution of income in Russia. In addition,when the imputed value of housing is added to household income,the increase in income inequality that occurred in recent yearsis significantly reduced. The analysis concludes with a discussionof how housing policy could be used to address poverty concerns,an important aspect of the transition process.      

INFLATION AND THE COSTS OF STABILIZATION: Historical and Recent Experiences and Policy Lessons

This article reviews various experiences with stabilization.It first examines stabilization programs in the context of hyperinflation—lookingat the experiences of Austria and Germany in the early 1920sand Bolivia in 1985—and then reviews and interprets theresults of orthodox stabilization plans (applied in Argentina,Chile, and Uruguay during the mid-1970s and early 1980s) andthose of heterodox programs (the austral plan in Argentina andthe cruzado plan in Brazil, with a glance at the Mexican andIsraeli experiences). The paper concludes with a discussionof conceptual issues and implications for the design of stabilizationpolicies.      

Cofinanced Public Extension in Nicaragua

How effective is agricultural extension? Is it worth the vastsums governments spend to provide it, mostly as a free service,to farmers worldwide? Relatively few studies exist that measureand compare the benefits of extension activities against theircosts. In the absence of such data, this pilot activity concentratedinstead on demand. Would demand for extension services be highif they were no longer free? The existence of solid demand wouldpresuppose some benefits from the service. Further, might chargingfor the service actually improve its quality and sustainability? The pilot program in Nicaragua described here set out to testwhether a truly demand—driven extension system aimed atfarmers with small-and medium-size holdings could be developed.The principal mechanism was a contribution by the farmer paidas a bonus to the extensionist: the aim was to introduce incentivesfor providers to improve the service through rewards linkedto the quality of their work and to establish direct accountabilityof extensionist to client. The outcomes showed that the cofinancingconcept can be successful. The article describes the design,implementation, and results in the expectation that the lessonslearned may be of interest elsewhere.      

BEYOND RATE OF RETURN: REORIENTING PROJECT APPRAISAL

Traditional approaches to project appraisal fail in practiceto address two fundamental questions: whether a project belongsin the public or the private sector; and what effect any externalassistance associated with the project has on the country'sdevelopment. The first issue is of general interest to bothnational policymakers and international donors. If the governmentprovides a good or service that would otherwise have been providedby the private sector, the net contribution of the public projectcould be low. The second issue is of particular concern to donors.If financial resources are fungible, the project being appraisedmight well have been undertaken with out external financing.In this case, donor funds are actually financing some other,unappraised project. Both cases argue for a shift in the emphasisof project evaluation away from a concern with precise rate-of-returncalculations and toward broader sectoral analyses and publicexpenditure reviews. In this context, three areas critical forproper project appraisal include a consideration of the rationalefor public intervention, the fiscal impact of the project, andthe fungibility of external assistance.      

Globalization, Poverty, and Inequality since 1980

One of the most contentious issues of globalization is the effectof global economic integration on inequality and poverty. Thisarticle documents five trends in the modern era of globalization,starting around 1980. The first trend is that growth rates inpoor economies have accelerated and are higher than growth ratesin rich countries for the first time in modern history. Developingcountries’ per capita incomes grew more than 3.5 percenta year in the 1990s. Second, the number of extremely poor peoplein the world has declined significantly—by 375 millionpeople since 1981—for the time in history. The share ofpeople in developing economies living on less than $1 a dayhas been cut in half since 1981, though the decline in the shareliving on less than $2 per day was much less dramatic. Third,global inequality has declined modestly, reversing a 200-yeartrend toward higher inequality. Fourth, within-country inequalityin general is not growing, though it has risen in several populouscountries (China, India, the United States). Fifth, wage inequalityis rising worldwide. This may seem to contradict the fourthtrend, but it does not because there is no simple link betweenwage inequality and household income inequality. Furthermore,the trends toward faster growth and poverty reduction are strongestin developing economies that have integrated with the globaleconomy most rapidly, which supports the view that integrationhas been a positive force for improving the lives of peoplein developing areas.      

工程机械产业在全球金融危机中的发展研究——以湖南为例

湖南工程机械产业规模逐渐扩大,市场占有率高,产业集群明显,创新能力强,品牌优势突出,但在全球金融危机中受到影响,面临诸多挑战与考验,要把湖南打造成世界机械之都,必须开拓新兴市场、加强自主创新、优化产品结构、重视产品推介与售后服务、完善产业发展政策,从而实现湖南工程机械产业从容走出金融危机的"冬天"。     

Reassessing Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

During the past decade, the use of conditional cash transferprograms to increase investment in human capital has generatedconsiderable excitement in both research and policy forums.This article surveys the existing literature, which suggeststhat most conditional cash transfer programs are used for essentiallyone of two purposes: restoring efficiency when externalitiesexist or improving equity by targeting resources to poor households.The programs often meet their stated objectives, but in someinstances there is tension between the efficiency and equityobjectives. The overall impact of a program depends on the gainsand losses associated with each objective.      

How Research Can Assist Policy: The Case of Economic Reforms in Uganda

Research has had a powerful impact on policy in Uganda, affectingthe climate of opinion, improving the quality of the policydebate, and helping focus public policy and intervention onpoverty reduction. Uganda's successful use of knowledge andresearch to help set public policy priorities demonstrates thateven a poor postconflict country can, in a relatively shortperiod of time, create an effective information base and feedbackmechanisms for decisionmaking.