The Role of Hedge Funds in International Financial Markets

This paper analyses the risk and return characteristics of a wide universe of hedge funds in the period 1990–2000. Most major categories of hedge funds are found to have outperformed (often by a considerable margin) the performance of traditional asset classes. The potential impact of hedge fund trading on market spreads and volatilities is examined especially in the period 1998, so as to provide some guidelines in terms of regulation of such funds. It is shown, however, that despite hedge fund difficulties in that period, the inclusion of hedge funds in investor portfolios definitely moves the efficiency frontier outwards, and allows significantly higher levels of returns for given levels of risk. This is primarily because of the low level of correlation of certain hedge fund styles, especially arbitrage strategies, with other hedge fund styles and with traditional assets.
(J.E.L.: G10, G11, G14, G23).     

A reliable performance measure to differentiate China’s actively managed open-end equity mutual funds

We compare different fund performance measures to examine which performance measures can generate risk-adjusted returns between high ranked and low ranked China’s actively managed open-end equity mutual funds. Our results show that only the six-factor (five factors (market, size, b/m, profitability & Investment facotrs) plus a momentum factor) alpha as the performance measure meets the criteria. Separated by the six-factor alpha, better performing funds have a larger asset under management, a better past 6-month cumulative return, a better stock picking ability, and a higher percentage of hybrid funds. Through our sample period from July 2004 to December 2015, the highest ranked quintile funds generate a monthly risk-adjusted return of 0.24% more than the lowest ranked quintile funds and the six-factor alpha reliably selects a better fund portfolio in both bear and bull markets on the basis of both fund return and holding data. Furthermore, our results from fund trading data show that funds with the highest six-factor alpha rank demonstrate a better trading skill in bear markets, suggesting that those better performing funds exhibit their market timing and stock picking abilities when investors need them most.     

Cumulant instrument estimators for hedge fund return models with errors in variables

We revisit the factors incorporated in asset pricing models following the recent developments in financial markets – i.e., the rise of shadow banking and the change in the transmission channel of monetary policy. We propose two versions of the Fung and Hsieh (2004) hedge fund return model, especially an augmented market model which accounts for the new dynamics of financial markets and the procyclicality of hedge fund returns. We run these models with an innovative Hausman procedure, tackling the measurement errors embedded in the models factor loadings. Our empirical method also allows for confronting the drawbacks of the instruments used to estimate hedge fund asset pricing models.     

国际对冲基金的中国资产配置研究

"热钱"进入的状况和影响目前正在受到国内各界的广泛关注。文章借用以指数收益推算要素敞口的方法,研究了"热钱"的典型代表———国际对冲基金在中国金融市场上的投资活动和资产分布。从全球对冲基金行业来看,尚不存在大规模投资于中国大陆市场的迹象。全球对冲基金业绩仅与中国股票市场存在较微弱的正相关关系。就大中华区而言,大陆股票、香港股票和台湾股票市场是这一地区对冲基金的主要活动场所。没有发现对冲基金在行业意义上进入中国债券、期货和房地产市场的证据。文章还分析了国际对冲基金进入中国的主要渠道和目前国内对对冲基金的监管现状,并提出有关政策建议。     

Risk aversion and portfolio allocation to mutual fund classes

The major factors affecting fund flows allocated to a range of mutual fund classes bearing different risk–return profiles are studied. The flexible functional form of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) is applied to identify the major drivers of Greek investors' demand patterns for equity, bond, balanced and money market funds, given the strong growth rates of the domestic fund market and the economy's latest entry into the EMU. An increase in household expenditure is shown to have a positive impact on mutual fund flows. An adverse price impact, however, may erode budget benefits towards a fund class, as the price factor appears to be important. The cross-price effects provide insight on complementarity and substitutability among the mutual fund classes. Variations in investors' risk aversion attitudes affect demand for mutual funds and can result in asset reallocation between the asset classes. The conclusions have useful policy implications particularly to asset fund management and portfolio allocation strategies and can be compared with established mutual fund markets.     

Skillful hiding: evaluating hedge fund managers’ performance based on what they hide

Mandatory disclosure of hedge fund portfolios has been a hotly debated topic. This article studies asset returns of ‘confidential holdings’ (confidentiality treatment [CT]) or those assets that were not voluntarily disclosed by US-based hedge funds in their original 13F filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission. After analysing returns from 1999 to 2013, we find that in aggregate, the CT position size, ownership share and returns are statistically different to non-CT positions. We provide a mechanism for regulators and investors to rank fund managers based on what they hide in positions.     

What drives the high moments of hedge fund returns?

We study the high-moment distribution of hedge fund returns and identify factors that drive high-moment risk. Using hedge fund monthly returns, we find a strong correlation between the first four moments of returns (i.e. mean, standard deviation (SD), skewness, and kurtosis) and different characteristics of the funds such as leverage, liquidity, incentives, and strategy-related factors. We find that after controlling for other factors, incentives-related factors and a hedge fund’s specific strategy have the greatest impact on the distribution of fund returns. Our evidence also suggests investors allocate across hedge fund characteristics while placing greater emphasis on fund strategies and incentive factors.     

Mesdames et Messieurs,momentum performance is not so abnormal after all!

This article provides evidence regarding the performance of momentum investment strategies that is consistent with the Neoclassical Theory. More specifically, while momentum investment returns appear orthogonal to systematic risk in the extant literature, this article illustrates that they are due to correlated changes of hedge portfolio systematic risk exposures with market conditions. Momentum portfolios are excellent market timers in both expanding and contracting markets. Their returns however are generally not abnormal when timing is considered in an augmented unconditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), while the standard version erroneously considers them to be so, possibly explaining why momentum studies have so far rejected the Neoclassical Theory.     

地方养老基金委托投资风险的审计控制

在全国社保基金理事会受托投资运营广东省企业职工基本养老保险基金的示范下,越来越多的地方养老基金实行多元化的投资运营乃属大势所趋。既要拓宽养老基金的投资渠道,又要强化包括政府审计在内的监督形式以控制投资尤其是证券投资的风险,是当前中国地方养老基金运营管理的现实选择。通过对各地养老基金的审计监督,明确只有经省级政府动议、本级人大和国务院批准,委托给国家专门成立或其他具有优秀业绩的资产管理机构开展多元化投资运营,并在委托合同中规定进入投资市场的比例、规模、进度、期限、对象与保底收益等事项,才能在最大程度上防范和化解投资风险,促进投资风险预警机制和风险控制制度的健全,确保基金的保值增值。     

澳大利亚共同基金法的革新及对我国立法的启示——以运作结构为分析视角

澳大利亚共同基金立法起初确立了"二元主体"的运作结构,但是,二者在职权运用过程中产生的内在张力使共同基金难以实现其为投资者谋求高额利润回报的愿景。1998年修改后的法律引入的"一元主体"结构取代了原有的运作模式:仅由基金管理人对基金的运作承担受托义务,资产保管人则退出了受托义务关系。尽管新的运作结构试图克服责任不清的弊病,然而事实表明任何试图通过淡化资产保管人受托义务并详列其法定义务与责任的做法并不可取。如今正值我国《证券投资基金法》修改,澳大利亚修法的经验与教训值得我国在确定共同基金运作模式时作为重要的参考与借鉴。     

A novel measure of liquidity premium: application to the Korean stock market

This study proposes a novel measure for an asset’s liquidity premium. Applying Brownian first-passage time distribution properties, we derive an explicit form of liquidity premium embedded in the asset price. Our liquidity premium measure is intuitive because it assesses the extent to which the value of the asset should be increased from the current market price if investors were allowed to retain the asset until they achieve an investment goal. This measure is readily available for assessing an asset’s liquidity because it does not require information on the asset’s transactional characteristics. Our empirical experiment using Korean stock market data suggests that the liquidity premium in this study is inversely related to Amihud’s (2002) illiquidity ratio, which is commonly used to measure stocks’ illiquidity.     

The Role of Market Sentiment in Asset Allocations and Stock Returns

Abstract

The authors investigate the role of mutual fund flows in incorporating market sentiment into asset prices. They show that retail investors adjust their investments among mutual fund categories in response to changes in market sentiment. Consistent with sentiment-induced price pressure through fund flows, they further find that firms favored by mutual funds, such as large-cap, dividend payers, and firms with high institutional ownership are sensitive to market sentiment. The authors construct a pricing factor representing sentiment risk and find that the sentiment factor is significant in standard asset pricing models and robust to various sorting procedure.     

我国社保基金委托投资管理费率研究

本文针对目前我国社保基金委托投资管理费率结构单一，不利于激励基金公司朝着投资者收益最大化的方向努力运作的问题，提出将费率划分为固定的和与业绩挂钩的两部分。同时，为了防止基金公司为获取更高的绩效管理费而吸收过度的积极风险，在费率设计的过程国引入了风险预算，结合我国证券市场的特点，提出了基于风险预算的我国社保基金投资管理费率设计方案。     

资产配置政策对基金收益的决定--对中国封闭式基金的实证研究

本文通过对中国封闭式基金的收益进行IK分解,将其分解为政策收益和积极操作收益,以图考查中国基金资产配置政策对基金表现的决定作用.经过对所搜集的上市封闭式基金的相关数据的实证分析,我们得出结论:(1)各封闭基金的资产配置政策对其总收益表现平均有50%的决定作用;(2)资产配置政策的差异只能解释12.5%的基金间的收益差异;(3)我国封闭基金的投资的积极操作过于活跃,并未取得正的积极操作收益,反而对基金总收益产生负影响,降低了政策收益对总收益的解释能力,积极操作越活跃,总收益越差;(4)我国封闭基金总体上没有优于市场的表现.     

投资主体结构改变对股市的影响——兼论多空均衡与股市泡沫的预防

文章将香港地区股市按投资主体结构变化划分为三个阶段,发现投资主体结构的改变影响了股市的形态.在市场的波动方面,引入对冲基金的第三阶段虽然最短,但其波动却对全时段形态起着决定作用,而以个人投资者为主的第一阶段的形态却与全时段差距最大.另外,因为多空势力不均衡,以传统基金主导的市场更易形成泡沫;而在股市中引入对冲基金与衍生产品后,股市的走势发生变化并减少了对经济与社会带来的负面影响.     

宏观型对冲基金动向及其对中国金融稳定的影响

近年来,宏观型对冲基金加快了策略转型和运作方式调整,表现为进一步分化为中小型化和专业化,其结构性变化是投资者中的机构投资者显著增加,大型金融机构也相继设立了机构内对冲基金;在投资策略方面,为了减少风险暴露,宏观型对冲基金正在寻找与各国政府意愿和金融市场走势更加协调的投资策略;这些新的变化对于各国金融稳定提出了新的挑战。目前,中国的经济金融形势十分有利于对冲基金实施多头策略,因此,如何有序开放金融市场和金融业及有效阻止对冲基金可能给中国金融体系造成的冲击是中国应当考虑和关注的问题。     

Optimal hedge ratio under a subjective re-weighting of the original measure

In this article we study a risk-minimizing hedge ratio with futures contracts, where the risk of the hedged portfolio is measured through a spectral risk measure (SRM), thus incorporating the degree of agent’s risk aversion. We empirically estimate the optimal hedge ratio (OHR) using a long time series of UK and US equity indices, the EURUSD and EURGBP exchange rates and four liquid commodities (Brent crude oil, corn, gold and copper), to represent different asset classes. Comparing the results with common OHRs (such as the minimum variance and the minimum expected shortfall), we find that the agent’s risk aversion has a material impact, and should not be ignored in risk management.     

The interbank market during a crisis

The autumn of 1998 provides a setting in which to test the performance of the interbank market during a potential financial crisis. This period witnessed Russia's effective default on its sovereign bonds and the near collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Despite these negative shocks to bank capital and increased uncertainty in financial markets, the federal funds market still effectively channeled liquidity to those institutions in need at rates consistent with Federal Reserve intentions. Further, risk premiums on overnight lending were largely unaffected and lending volumes increased, suggesting that the federal funds market performed well during this period.     

我国证券投资基金总体绩效的实证分析——基于总业绩评价理论

本文基于2007—2010年间数据,对我国开放式证券投资基金中的股票型基金、混合型基金和债券型基金的总体绩效进行了比较实证分析。研究发现:各股票基金的业绩表现极不均衡,基金经理的选股能力参差不齐,但选股能力或者择时能力有了明显的提高;各混合型基金的绩效分布都较为接近正态分布;我国债券型基金的业绩表现基本稳定,并没有随着股票市场的大起大落而表现出明显的好与差,其风险收益均大于与市场同风险的投资组合的风险收益,但是这种优势并不太明显。     

“私募股权基金的基金”的差异化发展——基于政府财政资金运用研究

在后金融危机时代,随着政府财政职能的不断完善和创新以及国家财政收入持续增长,科学合理的使用国家和地方财政资金,将对提高财政资金管理水平和使用效率,促进私人资本投资活动、扩大政府资金影响力、减轻政府负担以及转变职能等方面都具有重要意义.成熟的私募股权基金市场,是政府实现其政策的重要工具之一,其中“私募股权基金的基金”(PEFOF)为政府财政投资提供了不错的选择,也是政府设立并按照市场化运作的引导基金.本文将对政府财政投资PEFOF在投资标的差异化、投资额度及使用条件差异化、投资对象与投资策略差异化、投资模式及投资区域差异化等方面进行了分析与研究,提出加快发展我国政府财政资金PEFOF的建议与对策.