Exchange rate mean reversion from real shocks within an intertemporal equilibrium model

The post Bretton Woods era has been characterized by real exchange rates that exhibit mean reversion, with mixed evidence as to whether this reversion is partial (PPP never holds) or essentially complete. This paper generates these stylized facts theoretically by synthesizing a simple intertemporal open economy model with the elasticities approach to the current account. A central feature of the model is the existence of non-traded goods. The model can generate partial or approximately complete mean reversion for the real exchange rate (depending on parameter values) if innovations in output are made up of permanent and temporary components. In addition, temporary output shocks generate a type of hysteresis wherein the short-run path for the exchange rate permanently alters its long-run equilibrium value.     

Evaluating the penetration of the commodity economy

A recurring theme across the social sciences is that there is a natural and inevitable shift towards commodification. In this linear view of the trajectory of economies, ‘non-commodified’ economic activities are rapidly vanishing as the commodity economy, in which goods and services are produced by capitalist firms for a profit under conditions of market exchange, becomes ever more victorious, powerful and hegemonic. Until now, few have questioned this meta-narrative. Here, however, the intention is to evaluate critically the penetration of commodification. Investigating the depth and speed of the permeation of the advanced economies by the commodity economy, it is revealed that the non-commodified sphere has far from disappeared. Indeed, over the past 40 years, it has grown relative to the commodity economy and is now equal in size when the time spent working in these spheres is measured. Explaining this in terms of both the inherent contradictions embedded in the pursuit of commodification as well as the existence of ‘cultures of resistance’, the paper concludes that commodification is not only far from inevitable but the possibility of alternative futures for work beyond the all-conquering on-going advance of capitalism.     

Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies

This paper re-examines the extent to which gains from international diversification are due to differences in industrial structure across countries. Recent papers by Roll (1992), Journal of Finance 47, 3–42 and Heston and Rouwenhorst (1994), Journal of Financial Economics 36, 3–27 investigate this issue and find conflicting evidence. Using a new database, the Dow Jones World Stock Index, with coverage in 25 countries and over 66 industry classifications, we decompose comprehensively both country and industrial sources of variation. We confirm that little of the variation in country index returns can be explained by their industrial composition. We also uncover differences in the proportion of variation in industry index returns that is captured by country and industry factors and discuss the implications for global diversification strategies.     

The preparedness of companies to adopt International Financial Reporting Standards: Portuguese evidence

This paper uses ordinal regression, structural equation modelling, and multivariate analysis techniques to investigate the preparedness to adopt IFRS that was exhibited by listed Portuguese companies in August 2003. We find the level of preparedness was significantly associated with company size, commercial internationalization, audit by a ‘Big 4’ accounting firm, and profitability. Our findings will help to indicate the pre-conditions that are likely to spur lagging companies (and countries) to prepare to implement IFRS.     

Smaller business governance: Exploring accountability and enterprise from the margins

Smaller businesses now rank higher upon the corporate governance agenda. This agenda places their accountability and ‘enterprise’ particularly at issue. It is only put at issue because of just one possible problematization however. That problematization firstly assumes judicious accountability to be the crux of good governance with accounting at its hub. It secondly assumes that smaller businesses are the very seedbed of any ‘enterprise economy’, virtually irrespective of what form they take, or ‘enterprise’ they display. By then combining these assumptions together, this finally reproblematizes any relationship between accountability and ‘enterprise’, so that ‘de-regulation’ and decoupled accountability liberates smaller business ‘enterprise’ further. Others might question and challenge the very basis, as well as particular formulation, of this problematization however. A better grasp of the greater fluidity and complexity of smaller businesses would make the boundaries of their accountability and ‘enterprise’ more clear and leave their respective margins more suitably exposed. As a key potential instrument for that purpose managerial accounting research might then better inform the debate by specifically rendering these boundaries more visible while also identifying the precise scope for manoeuvre at/across their margins as well. To that end this paper uses certain enabling frameworks to construct and interpret the particular case of managerially accounting for a grown smaller business working across exactly those margins from the perspective of a ‘reflective practitioner’ acting as a field researcher for these purposes. As well as offering fresh insights into how far the boundaries of accountability and enterprise might legitimately stretch, this case calls for more critical thinking about how they might change.     

Commodity Trade and the Carry Trade: A Tale of Two Countries

Persistent interest rate differentials account for much of the currency carry trade profitability. “Commodity currencies” offer high interest rates on average, while countries that export finished goods tend to have low interest rates. We develop a general equilibrium model of international trade and currency pricing where countries have an advantage in producing either basic inputs or final goods. In the model, domestic production insulates commodity‐producing countries from global productivity shocks, forcing final‐good producers to absorb them. Commodity‐currency exchange rates and risk premia increase with productivity differentials and trade frictions. These predictions are strongly supported in the data.     

Transferring knowledge across sub-genres of the ABC implementation literature

In the last decade, a continuous stream of empirical articles has investigated how various implementation process factors (including, top management support, adequate resources, and ABC training) influence ABC implementation success. However, at the same time, a growing number of researchers have criticised this ‘mainstream approach’ for, among other things, neglecting issues of power and politics and for viewing ABC implementations as something inherently positive. Based on Lukka and Granlund's [Lukka, K., Granlund, M., 2002. The fragmented communication structure within the accounting academia: the case of activity-based costing research genres. Acc. Organ. Soc. 27, 165–190] call for communication between various streams of ABC research, the purpose of this paper is to discuss how the ‘mainstream’ implementation literature may benefit from insights made in the politically oriented literature. A key conclusion is that such an analysis not only provides us with enriched explanations of the relatively strong and coherent findings in the ‘mainstream’ ABC implementation literature, but has also the potential to explain ‘unexpected’ and ‘contradictory’ results found in this stream of research. Based on these observations, a number of directions for future research are proposed.     

Exploring (false) dualisms for environmental accounting praxis

This paper focuses on the political nature of the linguistic dualisms or ‘false antinomies’ that inhere in environmental accounting practice and environmental accounting research. These dualisms, ‘subject–object,’ ‘man–woman,’ ‘mind–body,’ and ‘culture–nature,’ the paper argues, need to be ‘ambiguized’ if the politics inherent in these dualisms are to be resisted. Two strategies for the ‘ambiguization’ of these dualisms are suggested: ‘performative parody,’ which is a strategy intended for environmental accounting practitioners, and ‘democratic reflexivity,’ which is a strategy intended for environmental accounting researchers. In taking this linguistic focus, the paper challenges common sense constructions of the environment and the potentially elitist and anti-democratic nature of environmental accounting research. By offering these two strategies, the paper provides a means of environmental accounting praxis, or means of resisting global ‘environmental’ domination.     

Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system

This paper explores the relationships between quotations, spreads and transactions in the Foreign Exchange market. Such interactions have been the subject of much work in markets such as the NYSE, but until now have gone unexamined in the FX market owing to a lack of data. Using a 7 hour, transactions-based data set we examine the determinants of both quote revisions and spreads. The results indicate that trades are a major factor in spread determination and quote revisions. Furthermore, there is evidence that the widely documented negative auto-correlation in quote returns is at least partially caused by the ‘thinness’ of this particular segment of the FX market.     

Information and the transnational SME controller

One of the issues that face the small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) when expanding is the ‘control’ issue and this paper investigates and presents preliminary evidence of ‘controlling’ or ‘management accounting’ practice in a transnational SME. Wibsey, the site of the case, is now a small group of companies that have expanded from a U.K. base into 10 European countries. This expansion has posed complex problems, which have increased the information requirements of the SME. The contextual issues of complexity and resulting challenges for the transnational organization in its management accounting, information and control systems are considered. Wibsey uses traditional management accounting as the basis of supporting decision-making in the group and a lower level of information need is reported, in contrast to Dent (1996) (Dent, J. F., 1996. Global competition: challenges for management accounting and control,Management Accounting Research , 7(2), 247–269), because the group chooses to maintain a traditional ‘accounting-led’ evaluation system in controlling and evaluating its transnational operations.     

How Does FDI React to Corporate Taxation?

Based on a panel of bilateral FDI flows among 11 OECD countries over 1984–2000, we show that, although agglomeration-related factors are strong determinants of FDI, tax differentials also play a significant role in understanding foreign location decisions. We further investigate non-linearities in the impact of tax differentials, and explore the impact of tax schemes. Our results are consistent with the imperfect competition literature which underscores the possibility of tax differentials across countries in equilibrium.JEL Code: F21, H25, H87     

A new approach to forecasting exchange rates

Building on purchasing power parity theory, this paper proposes a new approach to forecasting exchange rates using the Big Mac data from The Economist magazine. Our approach is attractive in three aspects. Firstly, it uses easily-available Big Mac prices as input. These prices avoid several potential problems associated with broad price indexes, such as the consumer price index used in conventional PPP studies. Secondly, this approach provides real-time exchange-rate forecasts at any forecast horizon. These high-frequency forecasts could be appealing to those who want up-to-date exchange-rate forecasts. Finally, as our forecasts are obtained through a simulation procedure, estimation uncertainty is made explicit in our framework that provides the entire distribution of exchange rates, not just a single point estimate. Using exchange rates of six major currencies to illustrate the approach, we compare the Big Mac forecasts with those derived from a random walk and the CPI and find some support for our approach, especially at longer term horizons.     

Beyond the mundane: reconciling breadth and depth in futures enquiry

For some time there has been a need within Futures Studies (FS) to develop methods which go beyond the dominant empirical tradition. For many years there has been a near-exclusive emphasis on understanding the external world ‘out there’. But as time has gone by, so it has become clear that our ability to understand the world ‘out there’ crucially depends on an underlying world of reference that is ‘in here’. Understanding the near-future environment calls for a combination of ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ views which, for example, give as much credence to judgment as to calculation. This paper considers a way of considering these very different ‘ways of knowing’. Overall, the aim is to go beyond what might be termed ‘mundane’ analysis, i.e. that which is preoccupied with surfaces, and to open out a broader arena for futures enquiry.     

Vulnerability and industrial hazards in industrializing countries: an integrative approach

The extra vulnerability of industrializing countries to environmental problems and industrial accidents cannot be understood or solved by a ‘normal’ scientific analysis. Aspects of the social and institutional context must be included, through analyses based on post-normal science. The standard two-dimensional classification of PNS is modified to have axes ‘social ‘and institutional vulnerabilities’ and ‘complexity of technological hazards’. The analysis is mainly applied to the case of the relatively rare accidents with catastrophic potential. In these, the deaths per accident in India, Mexico and Brazil are much greater than in the industrialized countries. This discrepancy arises partly from location of such plants near residential communities for marginalized workers and their families. Other socio-political factors are relevant, as the role of these countries in the global production system, the enforcement of safety and planning laws, quality of housing, and lifestyle of residents. Reducing the vulnerability of industrializing countries will therefore require major social policies and a comprehension of the limits of the normal scientific and economic approaches to such problems.     

Envisioning new--buying used: Are the Pacific Islands caught between alternative communication futures?

With the ‘complexification’ of today's society, due in large measure to rapid technological convergence in the fields of communications and informatics, developing Pacific island countries are faced with what at the surface appears to be a devil's choice: jump on the high-tech bandwagon and risk being subsumed by the Western-dominated ‘cyberculture’, or withdraw from the technology-induced developments evidenced in richer countries and thereby run the risk of falling even further behind. This dichotomy is, of course, false and paints a rather nihilistic picture of Pacific islands futures. The contention here is that such a polemic is selling the Pacific islands a ‘used future’. Therefore, it is vitally important, at this juncture, for Pacific island leaders, entrepreneurs and citizens to recognize that creative, long-term future strategies for planning and optimizing the application and use of high-tech communications in economically advantageous and culturally appropriate ways are desperately needed.     

巨无霸指数视角下的货币汇率均衡水平分析

基于购买力平价理论的巨无霸指数因其简单易懂,为判断汇率水平均衡性提供了一个简便的工具和辅助的视角。文章按经济体类别对《经济学人》公布的巨无霸指数走势特征进行了考察,并依据其修订指数的思路进行了新指数计算方法的推导及数据试算。通过对新老BMI数据的系统考察,发现经济金融条件类似的国家,其巨无霸指数存在一致性,新兴经济体货币低估存在一定的普遍性;汇率均衡程度与金融市场发展水平、资本项目开放程度、外汇管制等因素之间未存在必然联系;调整后的巨无霸指数显示,人民币汇率可能已经处于比较稳定的均衡水平。     

Teaching about the future

Since 1984 UNESCO has been developing a programme of prospective studies. This programme was re-named ‘future-oriented studies’ and is now centred around three groups of activities: a project on the futures of culture; the development of education and training with special emphasis on disseminating the methodology of future-oriented studies; and the creation of an international bibliographic database called FUTURESCO. An invitational seminar, ‘Teaching about the future’, held in Vancouver, 21–23 June 1992, was a direct consequence of the above. It was organized and hosted by UNESCO (with FUTURESCO and the Canadian Commission for UNESCO). It brought together about 20 professional futurists from Pacific Basin countries to consider a range of theoretical, practical and pedagogic issues associated with teaching futures, mainly at the tertiary level.     

Revisiting the ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment : A conversation

In 1991, futurist Bruce E. Tonn proposed a ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment to the US Constitution. His proposed ‘Court of Generations’ lacked punitive powers but, hopefully, would have sufficient legitimacy to counteract extreme present-minded thinking evident in US political processes and institutions. Although Tonn's ‘Court of Generations’ Amendment has been well received in the futures community, who else has heard of it? Otherwise, has it made any difference? How can the cumbersome and nonfuturistic amendment procedure in the US Constitution generate a futures-oriented ‘Court of Generations’? And for those who sincerely look forward to a ‘Court of Generations,’ precisely what kind of tactically savvy visionary leadership will give the ‘Court of Generations’ any chance of being approved? During 1997, Vincent Kelly Pollard engaged Dr. Tonn in an Internet conversation aimed at clarifying these issues.     

Trade concentration, openness, and deviations from purchasing power parity

Economists have often explained deviations from PPP in terms of random relative price changes. While all countries are subject to such real shock, empirical studies indicate that PPP seems to hold closer for some countries than others. This paper emphasizes two major reasons why we should expect systematic differences across countries in deviations from PPP: (a) the concentration of trade and (b) openness. The more diversified trade, the less susceptible the country to random shocks affecting individual goods, so that shifts in the PPP ratio are lower. The more open the economy, the greater the weight of traded goods in the overall price indices, so that if exchange rates are determined by traded goods prices, yet empirical tests of PPP use national price indices, PPP should hold better in more open economies.     

Social accounting research: An Australasian perspective

This paper provides an insight into the nature and the extent of social accounting research being undertaken within Australasia. It demonstrates that Australasian researchers account for a significant amount of internationally published social accounting research, but emphasises that the research effort seems to be confined to a limited number of researchers perhaps reflecting a lack of ‘take-up’ in this area in terms of the scale of participation. Information is also presented about the relative propensity of journals within the sample to publish social accounting research, and identifies that ‘top tier’ accounting journals historically have not published social accounting research. The paper also considers various factors which seem to be impeding the ‘recruitment’ of new social accounting researchers.