Religion and development in post‐Famine Ireland

Over a century ago, Horace Plunkett began a debate about the role of religion in Irish development, pointing to what he saw as the economic shortcomings of Roman Catholicism. Thereafter, however, the debate waned, and only limited scholarship has subsequently investigated the significance of religion in Irish development, especially in statistical terms. In this article that lacuna is addressed, using a quantitative approach to examine the relationship between Roman Catholicism and economic and financial development in the post‐Famine era. Attention is directed to a variety of development indicators, namely, education, occupations, and commerce. By focusing on a selection of measures over time, it is possible to determine more precisely where differences, if any, occurred between the denominations and whether such differences changed over the period. The analysis reveals that Roman Catholicism tends to be initially negatively associated with more advanced development outcomes, but that this association weakens over time. As such, the results point to an economic convergence between Roman Catholics and Protestants, complementing historical evidence on an upward Catholic socioeconomic transition—a ‘Catholic embourgeoisement’—in the post‐Famine era.     

Can public policies lower religiosity? Evidence from school choice in France, 1878–1902

This study analyses the effects of public policies on religiosity by focusing on the enrolment of pupils in French Catholic primary schools between 1878 and 1902. During this period, the government increased public spending and made school attendance free and mandatory until the age of 13. The empirical analysis presented here suggests that greater public spending had no substantial effect on the enrolment in Catholic schools. By contrast, mandatory schooling laws had a negative, but quantitatively limited, impact. The overall resilience of Catholic schooling is traced to the political divide created by the 1789 French Revolution.     

China's economic fluctuations and consumption smoothing: Is consumption more volatile than output in China?

This paper provides a fundamental study of China's consumption and output fluctuations. The most recent literature reports that, in the post-1978 period, detrended consumption is significantly more volatile than detrended output in China. This indicates the inability to impose consumption smoothing. However, in those previous studies, consumption of durables, which has some features of capital, as discussed in the real business cycle literature, was not separated from private consumption. This paper is the first to estimate consumer durables for China and their service values following the method introduced in Cooley and Prescott (1995). We adjust the consumption measure to make it consistent with the real business cycle literature, and find that consumption of durables is much more volatile than output, but non-durable consumption is less volatile than, and less correlated with, output that provides evidence that supports consumption smoothing in China.     

Asset Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing: Disaster-coping Strategies in Noncontiguous and Contiguous Destitute Areas

Do households sell assets in order to smooth consumption? The empirical evidence is mixed. Using household- and village-level data in the context of China's poverty alleviation policy, we analyze the relationship between climate shocks and household coping behaviors from the perspective of whether coping strategies to deal with weather shocks are sensitive to the contiguity of destitute areas. Our results indicate that, unlike households living in noncontiguous destitute areas, households struck by weather shocks in contiguous destitute areas tended not to reduce or liquidate assets. To overcome weather shocks, households in contiguous destitute areas instead reduced household consumption, such as food consumption and increased nonfarm working hours. Our findings point to the possibility that the implicit assumption of consumption smoothing coupled with a failure to incorporate explicitly the factor of contiguous regions has led to seemingly divergent findings in the literature regarding consumption smoothing.     

Digital Financial Inclusion and Consumption Smoothing in China

In this paper, we investigate the effect of digital financial inclusion (DFI) on household consumption smoothing in China. We use four waves of the biennial China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2016, during which time DFI has significantly developed alongside financial technology across China. We split household income shocks into permanent and transitory components, and evaluate if DFI may help households to buffer against these shocks. We find that households are not able to insure against permanent shocks to income, but they can smooth approximately 70 percent of transitory shocks to income. We also find that DFI has diminished households’ ability to insure against transitory income shocks. This is partly because online purchase may lead to the oversensitivity of consumption to income. In addition, we find that contrary to DFI, traditional financial sector development contributes to better household consumption smoothing against transitory income shocks.     

Extracting economics from Roman marble quarries†

Urbanization across the Roman Empire created a demand for building materials on an unprecedented scale. Quarrying was largely conducted by municipalities, institutions, or landed aristocrats, who owned or inherited the valuable land from which stone was extracted. By using principles of economics as a guide, and with greater coordination between theory and written and archaeological sources, this article examines the decision‐making processes involved in opening a quarry. Theories of economic rationality, resource economics, and statistical methods are helpful for understanding the prices for marble recorded in Diocletian's Edict, Roman jurists’ writings about exploitation on private land, and newly discovered quarries in the region of Aphrodisias, Turkey. Here it is argued that the exchange of local building stone took place in a competitive market where landowners actively tried to improve their financial situation, but did so at considerable risk. At Aphrodisias, examples of failed attempts exist alongside long‐running and successful enterprises. Entrepreneurs there did not extract a homogeneous set of resources, but chose to target marbles with inconsistent physical properties at increasing distances from the city in response to greater demand and rising prices. Roman jurists, primarily interested in protecting property value, made landowners calculate whether potential profits earned from sales outweighed the degradation of land.     

Income Smoothing and the Usefulness of Earnings for Monitoring in Debt Contracting

We investigate whether income smoothing affects the usefulness of earnings for contracting through the monitoring role of earnings-based debt covenants. First, we examine initial contract design and predict that income smoothing will increase (decrease) the use of earnings-based covenants if income smoothing improves (reduces) the usefulness of earnings to monitor borrowers. We find that private debt contracts to borrowers with greater income smoothing are more likely to include earnings-based covenants. A structural model that explores the cause of this relationship provides evidence that smoothing improves the ability of earnings to reflect credit risk. Second, we examine technical default following contract inception. We find that income smoothing is associated with a lower likelihood of spurious technical default (when the borrower's economic performance has not declined but the loan nevertheless enters technical default). In contrast, we find no association between income smoothing and performance technical default (when the borrower's economic performance has declined). Collectively, this evidence is consistent with income smoothing improving the effectiveness of earnings-based information in monitoring borrowers.     

Resisting the melting pot: The long term impact of maintaining identity for Franco-Americans in New England

Approximately 1 million French-Canadians moved to the United States, mainly between 1865 and 1930, and most settled in neighboring New England. In 1900 almost a fifth of all persons born in French Canada lived in the U.S. These migrants exerted considerable efforts to maintain their language and to replicate their home country institutions, most notably the schooling system, in their new country. For decades, this resistance to assimilation generated considerable attention and concern in the U.S. The concerns are strikingly similar to those often invoked today in discussions of immigration from Hispanic countries, notably Mexico. Mexicans may not be assimilating into mainstream America as European immigrants did. We look at the convergence in the educational attainment of French Canadian immigrants across generations relative to native English-speaking New Englanders and to European Roman Catholic immigrants. The educational attainment of Franco-Americans lagged that of their fellow citizens over a long period of time. By the time of the 2000 Census, they appear to have largely achieved parity. The effects of World War II, especially military service, were very important in speeding up the assimilation process through a variety of related channels: educational attainment, language assimilation, marrying outside the ethnic group, and moving out of New England. Economic assimilation was very gradual because of the persistence of ethnic enclaves.     

EMU, EU, Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing

By taking a new approach to the study of the impact of EMU on consumption smoothing, centering on consumption volatility and therefore on smoothing more directly, we find that even though EMU tends to smooth consumption, it is not through cross-country property and claims. Rather it comes through the promotion of the tradability of goods, capital in particular: specifically, the encouragement of price competition, contestable home markets, ability to borrow and buy insurance at home, and the harmonization of regulations. Some of the consumption smoothing may also depend on EU membership rather than EMU as such but EMU adds to it. As a fundamental part of the analysis, the paper uses a new index of currency union which focuses on the ratio of trade with other countries sharing the same currency relative to total foreign trade.     

External Shocks and High Volatility in Consumption in Low‐Income Countries

According to the well‐known concept of consumption smoothing, the volatility of consumption is low even when income is volatile; this is confirmed by data from G7 countries. Surprisingly, however, consumption volatility in many low‐income countries is nontrivially higher than income volatility. Here I examine what causes high consumption volatility in low‐income countries. In general, volatile consumption makes consumers worse off. Therefore, understanding the causes of high consumption volatility can contribute to improving welfare in low‐income countries by suggesting measures to assist in the stabilization of consumption. Unlike much previous research, I focus on international factors when explaining high consumption volatility. The results suggest that external shocks, which are far more volatile in low‐income countries than in industrialized countries, strongly swing consumption. By capturing these mechanisms, the model I use successfully accounts for consumption volatility's differences between the sample low‐income country and sample industrialized country.     

Bride Wealth and Household Security in Rural Zimbabwe

In this paper we ask why Zimbabwean households pay bride wealthin instalments rather than a lump sum on the date of marriage.We also pose the question why the type of cattle that has tobe paid is not exactly specified. Starting from the observationthat in rural Zimbabwe risk markets are absent we show thatflexibility in both timing and type of bride wealth paymentenhances household security beyond what is feasible throughincome pooling between relatives related through marriage. Theadditional security results from the creation of a large poolof means-conditional, enforceable claims on assets that arevital for income generation and consumption smoothing purposes.     

Precautionary saving and consumption growth in Taiwan

Consumption and income have both grown rapidly in Taiwan over the past forty years, with younger birth cohorts experiencing faster growth. The long upward trend in consumption presents a strong challenge to the consumption smoothing predictions of the Permanent Income Hypothesis. Household survey data from 1976–1996 are used to examine the extent to which precautionary savings behaviour can explain this rapid consumption growth in an environment with high levels of savings. We find evidence for a strong precautionary motive in Taiwan, with levels of prudence much higher than found in the United States and United Kingdom. These high rates of prudence explain much of the rapid consumption growth, while the faster consumption growth of younger cohorts is attributed in part to their greater participation in industries with more earnings risk.     

两种标准下西安市环境空气质量的定量研究

针对新旧空气质量标准差异、西安市空气质量影响因素和预测西安市未来空气质量,通过模糊综合评价、主成分分析和三次指数平滑等方法,建立模糊综合评价、主成分分析和三次指数平滑等模型,综合评价两种空气质量标准(API、AQI),分析出西安市空气质量的影响因素包括季节和能源消耗结构等以及预测出西安市未来一周空气质量为中度污染。     

Labor Unions and Income Smoothing

We study labor unions, an important stakeholder group that has not been a focus of the earnings smoothing literature. We posit that managers strike a balance between sheltering resources from employees’ profit sharing demands and catering to employees’ aversion to downside risk by smoothing earnings. We then hypothesize that a strong labor union would intensify managerial incentives to smooth earnings. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that union strength is positively associated with earnings smoothing activities through management of both accruals and R&D expenditures.     

基于实例的水资源预测方法概述

基于合肥市近几年的城市生活用水量数据为例,对一些水资源预测方法进行讨论和比较。对合肥市城市生活用水量的现状进行简要的概述;介绍三种水资源预测方法即指数平滑法、灰色模型预测法和BP神经网络预测法的理论方法及模型;利用给定的资料数据,运用三种预测方法进行分析,通过拟和模型误差对比,判定最佳的预测方法。     

Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa

This paper examines the effects of financial and trade liberalization on growth volatility of real output and consumption in Africa. Our results suggest trade liberalization is associated with greater output and consumption growth volatility while financial liberalization increases the efficacy of consumption smoothing and stabilizes income and consumption growth. In addition, we find financial market depth and institutional quality operate jointly with trade and financial openness to reduce volatility in output and consumption growth. There is also evidence that good institutions which foster low inflation levels and volatility promote consumption and output growth stability.     

Consumption,financial wealth and labor income in Korea

By examining the relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income in Korea, this paper presents three key findings. First, we find evidence that Korean households hold a larger proportion of their wealth in human capital instead of financial wealth, compared to households in other countries. Potentially, this finding appears consistent with Koreans’ enthusiasm for human development through education despite low government funding. Another important finding is that only financial wealth fluctuations contain a large portion of temporary components. Hence, financial wealth is mainly responsible for adjustments to restore the long-run relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income during the examined period. Third, and perhaps most interestingly, this paper finds that before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, households in Korea had difficulty smoothing their consumption over time. This finding may be at least partly attributable to households’ limited access to bank loans and their low level of financial wealth accumulation prior to the crisis. In contrast, we find little evidence that households’ consumption behavior has changed during the recent global financial crisis.     

Do international investment income flows smooth income?

Do International Investment Income Flows Smooth Income? — One mechanism by which international capital market integration can smooth consumption is to stabilize national income. In order to provide income smoothing, net international investment income should negatively co-vary with GDP. Moreover, to maximize stabilization of GNP in the face of GDP fluctuations, the yield on foreign assets should move countercyclically and the yield on foreign liabilities procyclically. In both time series and panel settings, we reject these hypotheses, suggesting that positive gross international investment income positions are not associated with income smoothing at businesscycle frequencies.     

Roman technological progress in comparative context: The Roman Empire,Medieval Europe and Imperial China

The Roman Empire experienced both extensive and intensive economic growth. This article first surveys the role of technology in that process, engaging with recent literature on intensive growth under Malthusian constraints. It goes on to investigate the difference in technological progress between the Roman Empire and medieval Europe. It argues that political fragmentation explains why medieval Europe was more innovative than the Roman world, invoking a comparison with imperial China to complement the analysis. The technological success of China under the Tang and Song shows that political fragmentation is not a precondition for progress. However, Roman emperors never invested in the practical application of useful knowledge, the way Chinese rulers did.     

Food Stamp Caseloads over the Business Cycle

We use a dynamic model of food stamp caseloads with state-level panel data to estimate the impact of the business cycle on food stamp caseloads in the era of welfare reform. The macroeconomy has a substantial impact on food stamp caseloads: A one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 2.3% increase after one year. In terms of welfare policy, a 10-percentage-point increase in the share of a state's population waived from rules limiting food stamp receipt among able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs) results in a 0.5% increase in contemporaneous caseloads. States with waivers from the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program in the mid-1990s had caseloads about 1.9% higher than nonwaiver states. While changes in AFDC caseloads have historically resulted in coincident changes in food stamp caseloads, our results suggest that the link between AFDC caseload and food stamp caseload changes has dissipated substantially after welfare reform. The cyclical sensitivity of food stamp caseloads indicates the importance of food stamps in smoothing consumption during economic recessions.