Some evidence on the accuracy of forecasts in R & D projects

In recent years many formal attempts, e.g. Baker & Pound, (1964), have been made to help R & D management assess the worth of R & D projects and select those most worthy of inclusion in the R & D programme. Most of these attempts are based on financial appraisals of a project's worth and require estimates of the costs and likely revenues that will result from the adoption of a given project. It is clear, therefore, that the validity of any measure of a worth for a project is dependent upon the accuracy of the estimates of cost and revenue associated with that project. Unfortunately the limited amount of evidence so far presented suggests, in particular, that cost estimates are extremely inaccurate.
In this paper, therefore, we try to add some further evidence on forecast accuracy for a number of industrial R & D projects. We begin with a short review of the existing literature evidence and continue with an analysis of the past effectiveness of R & D work and, in particular, of forecast accuracy.     

Firm Density and Industry R & D Intensity: Theory and Evidence

By deriving a formal model of industry R & D that identifies factors influencing industry R & D intensity, this paper first suggests firm density, defined as the inverse of average firm sales or simply the number of firms divided by industry sales, as a measure of market structure that is appropriate in explaining industry R & D intensity. The model shows that the cost structure of R & D, consumer preference over quality and price, the appropriability of R & D, firm density, and the average level of firm R & D intensity jointly determine industry R & D intensity. In particular, firm density has a positive relationship with industry R & D intensity, implying that firms in higher firm-density industries feel fiercer competitive pressure and thus engage more intensively in R & D. An empirical analysis of panel data on industry R & D activities of Korean manufacturing industries during the period 1991–1996 provides supportive evidence for the predictions of the model including the positive relationship between firm density and industry R & D intensity. The theoretical model and the empirical results are also consistent with the recent survey of U.S. corporate R & D activities by the U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Science Foundation (1999).     

Management of Scientific Staff at the Harwell Laboratory of the U. K. Atomic Energy Authority

Harwell's primary role. is to serve as the main research laboratory supporting the U. K. nuclear power development programme; in addition it undertakes research and development outside of the nuclear field for Government and industrial customers. Overall, there is the need to manage a very large number of separate and often disparate items of work and to ensure effective communication with senior managers of the nuclear power programme and with commercial customers on allocation of resources and technical progress. This is done through a version of "matrix management". A large proportion of the technical, commercial and staff management decisions are devolved within Harwell's matrix organisation where teams of staff required for particular items of R & D are formed by arrangements agreed locally between the two axes of the matrix. The smaller groupings of staff created in the matrix are important in providing environments where good staff management practices can be established and where a team spirit aids motivation and technical initiative.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN THE MAINTENANCE,REPAIR, AND OVERHAUL INDUSTRY: AN OPTIONS APPROACH

This paper presents a practical case application of the real options framework to a multi-stage investment in the aerospace maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry. With the deregulated commercial airline industry and military procurement reform, the $44 billion MRO sector must implement tools to remain strategically poised. In this case study, the MRO participant values a multi-stage irreversible expenditure in maintenance equipment and processes under air travel demand uncertainty using a real options analysis. The investment scenario is viewed from a delay, growth, and compound options framework, and an appropriate sensitivity analysis is performed. The main contribution of this paper is the detailed real option framing, valuation, and discussion that may be used as an illustration for industry practitioners or classroom instruction.     

The dairy herd buyout program : An impact analysis for the US feeder cattle industry

Dairy production decisions are considered to be determined outside the beef cattle industry. However, through its effects on non-fed cattle marketings, the Dairy Herd Buyout Program affects both feeder and slaughter cattle prices in the US feeder cattle industry. An impact analysis of a year-long buyout programme indicates relatively severe first-quarter price effects. However, by the second quarter price flexibilities show lessened relative price impacts, even though prices continue to decline in absolute terms. Within two years, reduced beef cattle numbers lead to higher prices than would have occurred without the buyout programme.     

Reshaping European metrology research – the role of national research managers

This paper deals with the role of research and development (R&D) managers in shaping the landscape of public research in Europe. These R&D managers work in the sphere of public research within national government laboratory services. The case we present is of the reconfiguration of metrology research. Metrology is the science of measurement. We examine why scientists and research managers in nationally embedded institutes, which are performing R&D in support of national policy and local industry needs, have chosen to co‐operate in a shared research programme. This means giving up, in part, their national sovereignty over funds and decision making. Furthermore, we examine how they have achieved the shared programme, which was launched as a European Commission (EC) programme through the Article 185 ¹ initiative, which allows the European Union to participate in research programmes undertaken jointly by several Member States.     

大型研发企业的研发投入分析——基于全球前2000家企业研发投入数据

利用2006年全球研发投入居前2000位的企业数据,考察了这些企业研发投入的一些基本特征,如产业分布、国家分布,以及研发的集中度,并探讨了企业研发投入与企业规模之间的关系。研究结论是：研发具有产业异质性;研发在一些国家集中;企业研发的总量水平、研发比率、研发增长率与企业规模具有非线性关系．中型企业具有较高的研发投入量,而小型企业与大型企业具有较高有研发投入比,以及研发增长率。     

University research and development of a microsatellite

Developing a microsatellite at a university is an effective means of training engineering students for an R&D career. Such a programme requires the adoption of many research and development processes from industry. This paper describes how tailored forms of systems engineering, project management and technology management were applied to develop a high technology product at a tertiary educational institution. This microsatellite development programme has produced students who are well prepared for the realities of engineering practice, and a research and development facility that earns research funding for the university.     

Profitability, productivity and price recovery patterns in the U.S. telecommunications industry

We undertake a study where we examine changes in the profitability, productivity and price recovery of firms in the U.S. telecommunications industry over a sixteen-year period. We assess the performance of thirty-three major companies in the local-exchange sector over six time periods 1975, 1978, 1981, 1984, 1987 and 1990, using a performance analysis model which disaggregates the profitability measure into two components: productivity and price recovery. We demonstrate the computation of performance using this technique. Our study indicates that the opening up of markets has had a significant impact on different dimensions of performance in the telecommunications industry, also validating a number of theoretical assumptions about the impact that industry changes are expected to have on firms.     

Inadequate policy analysis is to blame

Comprehensive policy analysis and public policy communication on emerging issues involving food, agriculture and natural resources are the objective of a newly established programme at Resources for the Future, an independent, non-profit research group based in Washington DC. Initiated in October 1981 with a start-up grant from the Ford Foundation, the programme is under direction of Kenneth R. Farrell, former administrator of the Economics and Statistics Service of the US Department of Agriculture. The following comments prepared by Farrell express his views on food and agricultural policy in the USA and goals of the new policy programme.     

The changing face of research anddevelopment in the public sector

This paper examines the changes that have occurred in the management and scale of R & D, in the contextof the'gas industry's experience. As a resultof the discovery o f North Sea gas and new and expanding operations, R & D has become larger, more central, and thus more integrated into and accountable to the organization as a whole. This has resulted in greater centralization and planning administered according to the ‘sponsorship’ principle. These changes have highlighted the problems of R & D choice and the comparison of commercial and non-commercial objectives in a public sector industry. The unique constraints under which nationalized industries operate and their commitment to the ‘public interest’ as well as to commercial goals, are discussed. These bear upon the way in which R & D decisions not amenable to cost/benefit analysis (such as the balance between long and short term work) are made. It is emphasized that these decisions are made by the industry as a whole and that R & D must thus be seen to be complying with industry objectives. The example of British Gas R & D Planning is used to show how ‘sponsorship’ operates and its values for R & D and the restof the industry. Comparison with other public sector industries indicates that there is no one great system for R & D and that its administration is a function of the history, technological characteristics, and present situation of the industry. These imply different procedures appropriate for the innovation process within the Industry. The role of British Gas within a national energy policy is discussed. The separation of the fuel industries affects the assumptions on which R & D plans are made and thus the degree of uncertainty inherent in all R & D planning. This raises interest- ing questions about the degree of flexibility possible in defining each industry's own objectives.     

Generating agricultural technology: Triticale for the Himalayan Hills

This article is concerned with the process of generating agricultural technologies in public sector research and development (R & D) institutions. The case study examines a research programme to develop triticale as a food crop for the people of the Himalayan hills. It explains how significant changes occurred in the priorities and organization of a triticale improvement programme in India as a result of the timely analysis of information from on-farm trials and surveys, a review of past triticale data and a field workshop in the Himalayas.     

R & D,Foreign Direct Investment and Technology Sourcing?

The U.S. experienced a surge in foreign directinvestment (FDI) during the 1980s.To date, we do notfully understand what the research and development(R & D) effects of FDI are. FDI can affect the hostcountry's R & D activities in at least two ways. First,if domestic firms perceive foreign entrants as seriousthreats to their domestic market share, they willchange their R & D policies hence industry-wide R & Dintensity also changes. Second, the increase in R & Dintensity may be attributed to foreign firms' R & Dactivities to acclimatize to U.S. conditions. Using apanel of 4-digit SIC industries from 1981–91, there issome evidence that the latter scenario may be apossible explanation for the observed changes inindustry-wide R & D intensity.     

碳税对我国电力结构演变的影响--基于CSGM模型的模拟

电力部门的脱碳化发展是整个能源系统低碳化发展的重要内容。基于国内温室气体限排减排趋势日益明显,通过构建可计算一般均衡的CSGM模型,研究电力部门未来能源消耗与排放情景,分析了征收碳税以及限排条件下电力结构的变化趋势。情景方案模拟显示,征收碳税对电力部门从化石能源向非化石能源的结构演变具有较大的推动作用。     

Entry timing,exploration, and firm survival in the early U.S. bicycle industry

We explore the relationship between a firm's entry timing and its probability of surviving the early, uncertain period of its industry, and consider the trade‐off between entering early and potentially establishing a strong position in the industry vs. waiting until technological uncertainty is reduced. We hypothesize that, owing to inertial forces, firms that enter the industry at the earliest point in its history are least likely to make the conversion to the product generation that becomes the dominant design in the industry. Exploration through the introduction of new products appears to reflect a local search process and retards the transition to the dominant design. We also hypothesize that, though firms entering early may exhibit longer life spans, their advantages are limited to the period before the emergence of the dominant design. We test our hypotheses in the early U.S. bicycle industry, and find evidence consistent with the idea that inertia limits firms' abilities to make the transition between generations of product configurations. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

提高中国医药科技国际竞争力途径——中国医药行业研发联盟现状研究

近几年对中国医药行业研发（R＆D）联盟的研究集中于理论模型和策略,对其实践状况的系统研究还很缺乏。本文通过对中国医药行业R＆D联盟的回顾性文献综述和相关信息的整理分析,总结医药R＆D研发联盟近十年在中国的现状,并提出相关建议：“产、学、研”三结合研发新药;政府与商会进行协调;促进科技成果向现实生产力转化;促进R＆D联盟市场化。     

European Economic Community industrial research priorities for the early 1980s

Respondents claimed that European effort on basic research rnay have so diminished that the long-term competitiveness of its industries is endangered. They saw a major role for the Commission in redressing this imbalance. There was little support for Commission sponsorship of applied industrial research. Some respondents felt that this could even be counter-productive by diluting effort in areas seen as important by industrial management. A role was seen for the commission in supporting more research on the legislative context and general environment in which industry operates ('contextual research'). The need for such research imposes a growing burden on industry and diverts scarce resources from work directly related to competitiveness.
A study sponsored by the Commission of the European Communities aimed to identify the types of R & D activity in aid of European industry that the Commission might support over the next three or four years. The findings are based on interviews with senior managers from some fifty firms, representing eight sectors of manufacturing industry in five European countries.     

Economic factors that affect new product substitution: A case history

A scenario is presented of a U.S. industry whose traditional products were well into the maturity stage of the product life cycle and long overdue in introducing a new product to the marketplace.     

Industry costs and consolidation: efficiency gains and mergers in the U.S. railroad industry

Since partial deregulation in 1980, there has been a massive consolidation of firms in the U.S. railroad industry premised largely on efficiency gains. We estimate a cost function and use it to calculate cost effects for specific mergers and for all mergers at the industry level from 1983–2003. Our central results are that consolidation in the railroad industry accounts for about an 11.4 percent reduction in industry costs (more than $4 Billion in 1992 prices), and that while there are tremendous differences across mergers with respect to the direction, level, timing, and source of cost impacts, most mergers result in cost savings.     

Applications of computers in R & D management

R & D Managers use computers extensively in solving technical problems. This paper examines the use they make of computers in solving Management problems. Applications of computers to various aspects of R & D programme formulation, project planning, technical information storage and retrieval, management information systems, and computer-aided training have been investigated by many companies and, in some cases, have been implemented. Some of the techniques have become well established but others are still at a development stage. No attempt has been made to evaluate the techniques described. This topic was the subject of a study by a Working Group of the European Industrial Research Management Association (EIRMA), and a report ‘Computers as Aids to R & D Management’ was distributed to members of the Association. EIRMA has now agreed to release information contained in that report and this paper is based on that information updated by the author, who was Chairman of the EIRMA Working Group.