Global and Euro Imbalances： China and Germany

We analyze global and euro area imbalances by focusing on China and Germany as large surplus and creditor countries. In the 2000s, domestic reforms expanded the effective labor force, restrained wages, shifted income toward profits and increased corporate saving. As a result, the Chinese and German current account surpluses widened, and that of Germany has proven more persistent, with subdued domestic investment. China is an early-stage creditor, holding a short equity position and a longposition in safe debt. Germany＇s balanced net debt and equity claims mark it as a mature creditor thatprovides insurance to the rest of the world. China pays to lay off equity risk, while Germany, by contrast, harvests a moderate yield on its net claims. In both economies, the shortfall of the net international investment position from cumulated current account surpluses arises from exchange rate changes, asymmetric valuation gains, and, in Germany＇s case, credit losses.     

How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China＇s Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates？

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two‐sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.     

China as a Net Creditor： An Indication of Strength or Weaknesses？

China's international investment position is characterized by large net foreign assets, a dominance of low‐return foreign exchange reserves and costly foreign direct investment in foreign assets and foreign liabilities. In addition, China's foreign investment positions are facing potentially large exchange risks. These features reflect entrenched institutional and structural problems in China, including underdeveloped capital markets, biased resource allocation and a defective social security system. China's net creditor status might actually be an indication of weakness rather than strength. To improve its international investment position, China must speed up economic reforms and allow the market to play a fundamental role in resource allocation.     

从债权国到债务国——美国国际债务模式转变的逻辑分析

国际债务危机最初都是起源于发展中国家,发展中国家是国际债务人。进入21世纪,国际债务模式呈现出新的变化,国际债务危机从"外围"向"中心"扩散;债务危机的形式由公司债务危机向主权债务危机转变,美国由原来世界最大债权国转变成为世界最大债务国,中国作为发展中国家已成为世界债权大国。美国国际债务模式转变的内在逻辑直接反映出发达国家利用债务对实施开放经济的发展中国家进行利益转移。中国作为债权国面临着诸多挑战,维护债权国利益是当务之急。     

Renminbi internationalization as a response to the global imbalance

The build-up of huge foreign exchange reserve makes China a net creditor and also brings in significant challenges to the Chinese economy. Considering the internationalization of the renminbi as China’s response to the global imbalance, this paper analyzes the effect of renminbi internationalization on the formation of reserves and compares its benefits and costs in rebalancing China’s external position with those of outward direct investment. It assesses the current progress in the practice of using the renminbi in cross-border trade settlement and in the development of the offshore renminbi market. It further examines the possibility of the renminbi serving as a global reserve currency in the future.     

中国出口产品的国际分工地位研究——基于产品内分工的视角

在同一产品内部,出口产品价格高的国家处于国际分工高端;反之,处于低端。基于此,本文从中国出口产品价格与世界价格比较的角度,分析了中国国际分工地位。结论认为:中国出口产品绝大多数处于低端位置;随着产品技术含量增加,中国分工地位逐渐恶化;加入WTO促进出口增加的同时降低了中国分工地位,中国出口存在一定程度的"悲惨增长";相对于中国经济发展水平而言,中国国际分工地位偏低,两者不匹配。     

Financial remoteness and the net external position

This paper shows that financially remote countries exhibit more positive net external positions, hence hinting at external funding problems for more remote countries. This finding is found to be stronger for emerging and developing countries. However, being located near financially very open countries, being in currency unions with creditor countries, or being highly integrated through financial and trade linkages with a ‘core’ country facilitates net external borrowing. We also find evidence that remoteness affects primarily the gross liability side of the external balance sheet and has a stronger impact on the net equity position than on the net debt position. Consequently, the paper demonstrates the important role of geographic and bilateral factors for a country’s net external wealth.     

Net foreign asset positions and appreciation expectations on the Swiss franc and the Japanese Yen

The paper shows that currencies of countries with persistent current account surpluses and high foreign-currency denominated assets, such as the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, are under persistent appreciation pressure, particularly when the centres of the world monetary system follow expansionary monetary policies. This limits the choice of exchange rate regime. Given flexible exchange rates, a negative risk premium on the domestic interest rate can emerge. Empirical estimations provide mixed evidence for a negative impact of net foreign asset positions and exchange rate uncertainty on interest rates of international creditor countries at the periphery of the world monetary system.     

公众预期、通胀成因与经济波动牵扯

针对金融危机冲击下各国宏观经济政策所导致的新的世界经济波动,结合中国当前通货膨胀两难局面,运用古典模型中的二分法解构中国通货膨胀,得出名义变量引致了通胀的结论,并将古典增长模型与利率平滑规则有机结合,推断出现阶段通胀背景下仍应坚持适度从紧的货币政策规则,引导公众心理形成稳定的期望收入预期,才能真正意义上在稳定通胀的同时,形成社会理性消费预期,从而使扩大内需成为可能,这才是解决现阶段增长困境所在。     

“中国速度”的魅力

记得30年前,刚开始改革开放时,我们常说＂日本速度＂,这里的速度是指日本的经济发展速度和高速铁路的列车运行速度。上世纪90年代我们又说＂深圳速度＂,是指深圳的城市和经济发展速度,     

Understanding openness and productivity growth in China: An empirical study of the Chinese provinces

This paper investigates the effects of openness on China's regional productivity growth. We build a model of technology diffusion in which follower economies achieve productivity growth by taking advantage of technology spillovers from the world technology frontier. We hypothesize that China's regional productivity growth is a positive function of regional openness and a negative function of the current level of regional productivity. Empirical analysis in this paper focuses on how openness affects productivity growth in the Chinese provinces. We examine two effects of openness on regional productivity growth in China: the direct growth effect and the convergence effect. By using a variety of panel data regression techniques, we show that the direct growth effect of openness is the main effect while the convergence effect is insignificant. The findings of this paper lend strong support to the claim that the opening-up of China promotes the country's economic growth.     

关于我国玩具业国际竞争力研究

本文从目前中国玩具产业概况及国际竞争地位出发,利用联合国COMTRADE数据库数据,对我国玩具国际市场占有率、显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争力指数等三个国际竞争力的数量指标指数的分析,显示出我国玩具业出口数量优势大,外延型国际竞争力强,但又一直处于上下徘徊状态,存在可能下降的趋势。对此,本文剖析了我国玩具业存在的主要问题及其原因,指出我国玩具产业内涵型国际竞争力较弱,存在质上欠优和综合性上不强等问题,得出了我国仅是玩具制造与出口大国却不是玩具制造的强国的结论。在此基础上,本文提出了增强国际竞争力的对策。     

“中”:一个中国政治与国际政治的联合分析

“中”的思想遍布中国悠久的传统文化,它根源于中国的自然国情,演变与丰富于中国历史发展的长期性和复杂性。对于如何定义“中”,作者在提出其基本内涵之后,从中原、中庸、中道以及“中间主义”等维度对“中”进行延伸理解,以实现较为全面和深入的概括。总结来看,“中”体现了中心、平衡、道德、全面、稳定等状态。对于“中”的表现,可以从中国地缘政治、外交及内政等历史与现实、国内与国际相联通的视角来综合把握,尤其需要对中国外交的“中”进行系统分析。同时,作者把“中”与西方的“制衡”一词进行比较,进一步体现了“中”的独特价值。如何理性看待“中”在中国内政外交中的优势和难题,其实就是如何摆正“中”的位置、逐渐走到“中”的位置进而发挥“中”的最大价值。今后,中国发展将继续在“中”的道路上前进,即通过不断改革来释放内部压力与促进更好的开放,进而保障中国特色社会主义建设“稳中有进”。中国将在不断吸收外国的先进经验和克服自身不足的道路上创造人类发展的更大辉煌。     

对中国对外开放战略的若干思考

对外开放是中国的基本国策,是中国处理与世界关系的核心战略路径,它实质性地促成了中国与世界的良性互动,成为中国和平发展道路的本质特征。为此,要坚持对外开放的主体战略地位;致力于对外开放的观念创新,强调主权、安全与利益三位一体,坚持和丰富互利共赢的战略思路,以共同利益为基础创建利益共同体;同时要建构科学完备的国家战略体系,其核心内容包括,优化国家战略、完善国内开放布局,深化全球战略、拓展国家战略利益,强化地区战略、主导地区一体化进程等。     

China as a Global Manufacturing Powerhouse： Strategic Considerations and Structural Adjustment

This study examines the nature and consequences of China＇s rise to the center of world economic affairs through manufacturing-led development. Our historical analysis shows that China is still well short of the point in its developmental process where its growth might be reasonably expected to slow, or the energy, resource and carbon intensity of growth to recede. The study argues that the current trajectory of industrialization will have to be altered when China becomes more actively engaged in dealing with structural issues at home and abroad against the background of the unwinding of global imbalances. One profitable strategy that China might employ wouM be to approximate the incredibly fruitful mass-market integration efforts of the USA that eventually elevated it to its position of global primacy. The cyclical re-emergence of excess capacity in Chinese heavy industry, serious questions about the medium term ability of other major regions to accommodate further large gains in Chinese market share, and the stark conflict between the contemporary style of industrial development and the health of the biosphere indicate strongly that now is the time to catalyze the required adjustment and reform processes that will underpin sustainable long-run prosperity.     

Transition of China＇s Diplomacy and Foreign Relations

The present paper focuses on the transformation of China＇s foreign affairs. The transformation is closely associated with and mutually reinforced by the developmental changes that have taken place in China. China＇s strong economic focus has had a profound effect on its foreign relations and international strategies. With sustained growth over the past three decades （1978-2008）, China has become an important member of the world community. In particular, its influence has been growing in the Asia-Pacific area. China＇s unique developmental model and path are recognized and scrutinized worldwide. The present paper discusses special aspects of foreign aid and also explores the changes in principles of and approaches taken in the application of foreign aid policies. Under dual external and internal pressure, China has to constantly adjust, renew and improve its approach to diplomatic and international relations.     

基于“钻石模型”的中国电视娱乐产业竞争力研究

电视娱乐产业是文化产业的重要组成部分,其强劲的发展势头和巨大的经济潜力已经为世界上所有国家认同。现阶段,中国电视娱乐产业的发展尚不完善,产业的各个环节中仍存在许多问题。文章从管理学的"竞争战略理论"角度,运用迈克尔·波特的"钻石模型",对我国娱乐产业的国际竞争力进行了评估,并与韩国的电视娱乐产业进行对比,得出了一套合理提升我国电视娱乐产业竞争力的对策。     

China's Trade Liberalization and Structural Adjustments for the World Economy

While China's open-door policy has benefited the world economy, there are anxieties, both in China and abroad, about increased competition and the cost of dramatic adjustments. This paper attempts to analyse the implications of China's trade reform for structural change and welfare in China and the rest of the world. Three sets of experiments are implemented with the GATP model. The study finds that China is the biggest gainer from its own liberalization, its labour-intensive sector will expand but other sectors, including agriculture will contract. The structural adjustment for other countries is likely to be concentrated on the clothing sector. But the economies which experience the biggest adjustments are also the biggest gainers. Multilateral trade liberalization, such as the APEC free trade process, increases the gain both for the rest of the world and for China.     

中国对外直接投资的发展趋势与政策展望

中国已是世界上对外直接投资最大的发展中国家,也是全球第五大对外直接投资大国。中国对外直接投资与发达国家和发展中国家过去的投资模式不同,而是遵循一种价值链延伸型的发展趋势。中国的对外投资政策,已经朝着符合中国对外直接投资发展趋势的方向改变,但是,不管是战略层面,还是核准与管理制度层面,以及促进政策方面,要有效地支持中国当前和未来相当长一段时期内的价值链延伸型为主的对外直接投资,还需做出一些调整。     

The Case for Stabilizing China＇s Exchange Rate： Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion

China＇s financial conundrum arises from two sources. First, its large saving （trade） surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency. Instead, foreign currency claims （largely US dollars） build up within domestic financial institutions. Second, economists, both American and Chinese, mistakenly attribute the surpluses to an undervalued RMB. To placate the USA, the result was a gradual and predictable appreciation of the RMB against the dollar of 6 percent or more per year from July 2005 to July 2008. Together with the fall in US interest rates since mid-2007, this one- way bet in the foreign exchanges markets not only attracted hot money inflows but inhibited private capital outflows from financing China＇ s huge trade surplus. Therefore, the People＇s Bank of China had to intervene heavily to prevent the RMB from ratcheting upwards, and so became the country＇s sole international financial intermediary as official exchange reserves exploded Because of the currency mismatch, floating the RMB is neither feasible nor desirable, and a higher RMB would not reduce China＇ s trade surplus. Instead, monetary control and normal private-sector finance for the trade surplus require a return to a credibly fixed nominal RMB/USD rate similar to that which existed between 1995 and 2004. However, for any newly reset RMB/USD rate to be credible as a monetary anchor, foreign ＂China bashing＂ to get the RMB up must end. Then the stage would be set for fiscal expansion to both stimulate the economy and reduce its trade surplus.