影子银行监管的风险防范和信贷紧缩效应——来自资管新规的证据

资管新规有效防范化解了影子银行带来的潜在系统性风险，同时对商业银行的风险偏好与资产负债业务产生了一定影响。本文利用2014—2020年上市银行半年度数据，基于资管新规政策，使用双重差分模型实证研究影子银行监管对商业银行风险承担与信贷供给的影响。结果发现：第一，相较低风险行业，资管新规显著降低了商业银行对高风险行业的信贷投放，即起到风险防范作用；第二，资管新规抑制了理财产品的发放，导致银行融资渠道收缩，进而引起整体信贷收缩；第三，为承接理财资金，银行加剧了存款竞争，存款利率因此抬升，并传导至贷款利率。进一步研究发现，资管新规削弱了货币政策传导的有效性。本文的研究对于理解实体经济的融资困境有一定启示意义。     

研究报告精粹北大核心CSSCI

《理财子公司筹备跟进理财市场格局重塑》"资管新规""理财新规"和"理财子公司新规"等一系列最新政策共同构成商业银行今后开展理财业务应遵守的监管规则。监管政策对净值化管理、打破刚性兑付、消除多层嵌套和通道等原则性问题有非常严格的规定,对投资范围、销售起点和销售渠道等放松限制,旨在通过全面风险隔离,提升市场化和专业化运作水平,实现理财业务回归资管本源的目的。截至2018年12月3日,已有18家商业银     

资管新规背景下资管业务转型发展

当前我国金融市场中,资管产品已占据不可忽视的位置。随着资管新规的出台,在新的监管框架下,资管业务转型在去通道、降杠杆、期限匹配、净值化管理等方面取得了积极进展。2021年是资管新规3年过渡期收官之年,保本理财产品实现清零,净值型产品比例大幅增加,多层嵌套现象得到改善,信托公司新旧发展动能的转换已到达相对均衡的临界点,资管业务迈入规范发展新阶段。资管新规过渡期结束也面临着部分产品打“擦边球”、净值化不彻底、存量产品难消化等后续问题。因此,应不断完善资管制度,合理调整底层资产配置,以净值化管理为核心提升机构资产管理能力,加大投资者教育建立对净值波动和风险承担的意识,有效处理资管业务过渡期结束后续面临的问题。     

推动产品净值化管理奠定资管行业转型基石

资管新规及其配套制度,构建了我国资产管理行业的规则体系。产品净值化管理作为资管新规的重要规则,是推动资管业务回归本源、有序打破资管领域刚性兑付的基石。当前,资管产品净值化转型取得初步成效,社会各界关于买者“自享收益、自担风险”的投资理念正在形成。为推动我国资管行业持续健康发展,有必要坚持资管新规基本方向,考虑宏观变量和市场承受力,继续有序推进资管产品净值化管理,顺利实现资管行业转型升级,服务于实体经济高质量发展。     

银行理财变局之下谁主“沉浮”?

<正>去年4月,央行、银保监会、证监会、外汇局联合发布了《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》(简称"资管新规"),对资产管理市场的发展带来了深远影响。如今,"资管新规"落地已有一年多时间,银行理财产品平均预期收益率跌至4.31%,为近两年最低值。银行理财收益率缘何会创新低随着"资管新规""理财新规"和《商业银行理财子公司管理办法》等监管文件接连出台,2018年又被业内称为"资管元年"。有业内专家表示,资管业务转型对银行相关业     

大资管时代银行理财高质量发展路径探索

临近2021年岁末,资管新规过渡期行将结束.在三年半的资管新规过渡期之中,一方面,以资管新规为主体的资管行业统一监管制度框架基本建立完备,包括银行理财、公募基金、保险资管、信托、证券资管、私募基金等在内的各类资管机构打破了行业桎梏和牌照垄断,消除了监管套利,同类资产管理产品监管标准得到统一;另一方面,不合规存量业务得到...     

银行理财需平衡七大关系

<正>2018年以来,以资管新规为代表的一系列新政的出台在促进我国资管行业回归本源、提升资管行业服务实体经济质效、防范化解重大金融风险等方面都具有重大意义。三年多来,在金融管理部门的统一领导下,伴随着以资管新规为核心的行业统一监管框架日趋完善,银行理财以规范带转型,以转型促发展,回归“受人之托,代人理财”的资管本源,     

资管新规背景下黑龙江省理财产品发展中的问题及对策研究

近年来,随着我国资产管理行业的迅速发展,商业银行理财逐渐成为资管子行业中最为主要的部分。2018年,“资管新规”及与其配套的“理财新规”和“理财子公司管理办法”的先后出台,统一监管标准、加快净值化转型、打破刚性兑付、期限错配和消除多层嵌套逐渐成为资管行业共同的监管方向,商业银行的理财市场面临着重大的转型和调整。文章以黑龙江省为分析对象,探讨了资管新规出台后对商业银行理财产品的影响以及存在的问题,并提出相应的政策建议。     

新规背景下地方法人银行资产管理业务调查

2018年4月27日,资管新规正式出台,标志着我国资管行业进入了统一监管的新时代。作为地方金融主力军的地方法人银行,由于在资金实力、系统建设、投研能力、客户培育等方面较全国性银行相对不足,资管新规出台一年来其资产管理业务转型情况如何是本文重点关注的问题。本文以湖南省地方法人银行为例,重点分析资管新政实施以来地方法人银行在流动性、投资配置、净值化转型、风控管理的发展状况,并对如何落实好资管新规提出了相关对策建议。     

中国交建融资新模式:PPP+资产证券化

纵览中国交建2011~2015融资活动,发现其融资方式的多样化程度相较与2010年及以前有了飞速发展,但仍以银行借款为主,还存在投融资期限错配的问题。这种融资状态无法满足其"五商中交"的战略需求,需要创新融资模式。为了鼓励基础设施领域的投资与发展,为了盘活存量,用好增量,为了提高财政资本的投资效率,政府大力倡导PPP模式和资产证券化。中国交建是最早使用PPP模式的企业之一,具有丰富的操作经验,因此可以灵活地将PPP和资产证券化并将两者结合起来创新公司的融资模式:一是从PPP项目的三种类型及中交在PPP计划中的不同身份来设计PPP项目的融资模式,拓展新型金融工具在PPP项目中的应用,注重国家主管部门不同的劣后级出资人的助力;二是分别存量资产和增量资产设计在不同金融市场发行的资产证券化产品;三是针对新增纯公益性质、准公益的低收益率项目和准公益高收益率项目的 PPP+资产证券化运作模式,保证中交的资金需求、适时退出与规避风险。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.