日元汇率变动与日本政府的经济政策选择

2016年初以来,日元出现大幅升值,与日本国内宏观经济政策的目标指向及经济金融形势背离。日元汇率的变动与其政府的经济政策选择存在互为因果的关系,且易受国际政治经济及外汇金融市场形势影响。通过对国际金融三元悖论原理及蒙代尔—弗莱明模型结论的分析可知,日本政府现行的浮动汇率制可以确保其货币政策的独立性与实现资本的完全流动性。     

日本政府新经济金融政策评析

近十年来,日本经济持续低迷,银行不良贷款居高不下。继2001年底至2002年初日元汇率大幅波动之后,2002年9月又开始出现股市大幅下跌。面对严峻的经济金融形势,日本政府制定了包括中央银行救市、暂缓解除存款保付,削减税收和不良债权等在内的应对措施,意在加速处理不良债权并减缓其对社会经济和金融市场的冲击。日本经济金融新政策     

日本:大地震对日本经济后续影响还将持续发酵

日本东部海域3月11日发生9级地震,并引发海啸,给日本带来巨大的直接经济损失。虽然日本政府宣布日本已进入灾后重建阶段,但地震、海啸、核泄漏带来的影响还远未结束,日本官方至今无法对灾难带来的损失作出完全的统计。由于日本在灾后实行限电政策、福岛第一核电站核泄漏事故等级的上调和全球供应链中断等因素,日本经济未来的不确定性将进一步增强。一、疲软的经济数据日本大地震严重影响日本国内经济,3月份经济数据显示,经济景气判断指数大幅下滑;日本工业生产和制造业采购经理人指数大幅下挫;消费者信     

借鉴日本经验发展我国合作住宅事业

1 日本住宅合作社的发展和特点。二战以后,随着日本工业的逐步恢复和经济的迅速发展．日本的城市人口也随之大量增加。由于战后日本的城市建设受到了毁灭性的破坏．以城市为中心的住房困难成为了日本政府亟待解决的问题之一。为了支持鼓励个人及民间的住宅建设,日本政府于1949年设立了日本住宅金融银行,并在税收方面给予一定的优惠．使住房的供给得到了一定的改善。     

日元面临超强升值压力

2002年4月美元相对西方主要货币大幅度贬值后，美元与日元之间汇率却波动不大，这实际上是日本政府操纵外汇市场的结果。本文从日本国内经济基本情况、外部帐户状况以及国内金融市场多个角度分析了对日元汇率的影响，认为日元成为近期最可能大幅升值的货币。     

日本个人住房信贷市场及其特点

日本的城市设施在第二次世界大战中遭到了严重破坏。战后 ,随着日本工业的逐步恢复和经济的迅速发展 ,城市人口大量增加 ,城市住房建设成为日本政府亟待解决的问题之一。为此 ,日本政府不断探索 ,经过几十年的努力 ,形成了比较完善的住房政策体系 ,建立起比较规范的住房金融市场运作机制。政府通过住房融资支持 ,包括住宅公库融资、住房储蓄融资 ,对个人购房实行税收减免支持以及政府住房发展机构直接提供廉价住房 ,较好地解决了不同收入阶层特别是广大中等收入阶层的住房问题。目前 ,日本的住房自有率已位居世界前列。在日本的 44 2 1万户…     

日本:GDP出现连续两个季度的负增长

3月11日发生的大地震、海啸及随后发生的核辐射危机,使日本居民及企业信心遭受到前所未有的重创。近期,日本工业生产及商品出口明显下降,国内私营部门需求低迷看,经济形势令人担忧。今年一季度,日本实际国内生产总值增长率按年率计算为负3.7%,远弱于预期,并且为连续第二个季度的下滑。尽管如此,日本政府目前尚未明确经济已     

日本企业债市场的最新发展及对我国的启示

相关研究表明,资本市场不发达、企业融资过分依赖银行贷款是造成日本20世纪80年代末以来大量不良债权集聚、流动性过剩和投资机会匮乏的一个重要原因.因此,自1996年11月起,日本政府在刺激国内消费和投资的同时,实施了一系列改革措施以拓宽融资和投资渠道,鼓励金融市场进一步发展.但经过近10年的改革,日本金融市场的发展却始终不尽人意,有的学者甚至认为过去10年的"市场化改革"是日本金融市场"失去的十年".     

外刊扫描

日本政府公布数据显示,用以衡量景气变动的同时指标,6月份一如预期下滑,促使政府提出经济正在恶化的警告。日本内阁府表示,同时指标显示日本经济正在恶化,这句话用来暗示经济日本政府警告:经济正在恶化     

对日本金融业不良债权处置的探讨

20世纪90年代初，日本泡沫经济的破灭使其国内金融业在巨额问题贷款的拖累不几乎全面陷入瘫痪；随后日本开始着手处置不良债权，在经历了1997－1998年的金融运荡之后，日本政府还专门组建了金融再生委员会（FRC），实施“金融大爆炸”（Big bang）计划，其目的是对日本国内金融体系进行乇底整治，但日本国内金融体系尤其是银行体系的现状距1998年日本政府提出的目标仍然相差较远。目前，日本被银行巨额坏帐、股市下跌以及经济不景气等现实问题深深困扰的局面并未得以扭转。2001年4月6日，日本政府推出了包括银行不良债权处置方案在内的“紧急经济对策”，试图以此为契机，使日本经济走出困境，因此重新对日本金融业不良债权问题进行探讨具有重要的现实意义。     

The effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on analyst forecast error

Our broad research objective is to investigate whether convergence towards international standards improves the decision usefulness of information. Recent changes in Japanese consolidated reporting practices to better align with international standards provide an excellent setting to investigate this research objective. Specifically, we examine the effect of changes in Japanese consolidation policy on financial analysts’ perceptions of the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Previous research provides evidence that, prior to the change in consolidation policy, consolidated financial information was not used efficiently in the Japanese capital market. Prior research finds a positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future stock returns in Japan, indicating that investors underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Consistent with prior research using stock returns, we find that financial analysts also underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings in Japan. We document a significant positive relation between subsidiary earnings and future forecast errors of consolidated earnings. However, following the changes in consolidation policy in Japan, we find that financial analysts no longer underestimate the persistence of subsidiary earnings. Changes in Japanese consolidation policy in conformance with international standards increase decision usefulness by improving the ability of financial analysts to predict overall firm performance. One limitation of our research design relates to the adoption of mandated accounting policy changes by all sample firms in the same calendar time. This makes it difficult to control for the impact of correlated omitted variables. While this concern can never be completely eliminated, we provide additional tests that examine sample partitions by firm size and industry. These additional tests support the primary findings that Japan’s efforts to converge consolidation rules with international standards have improved analysts’ consolidated earnings forecasts.     

金融支持中小企业的政策框架——日本的经验教训与启示

通过完善信用补充体系,调整政策性金融制度,日本政府强调运用"国家干预主义"来消除微观市场失灵,借以推动中小企业信贷市场的有效运转。然而,行政干预效果的短期性、财政负担的持续恶化以及金融资源配置效率的损失,意味着这种"强制性制度变迁"存在着内在的脆弱性。相比之下,通过丰富货币政策工具组合,采取市场化的弹性调控手段,日本央行信贷政策的结构调整更具效率。日本经验教训对于我国的启发意义在于,只有合理选取和调整公共政策,构建整体性的中小企业产业政策框架,才能真正建立起金融支持中小企业的长效机制。     

Foreign Ownership and Non‐Life Insurer Efficiency in the Japanese Marketplace

Traditional shareholding patterns in Japan have experienced significant change beginning in the early 1990s. Since that time, foreign institutional shareholding has increased significantly largely at the expense of domestic financial institution ownership. This article examines whether these changes in ownership patterns share a relationship with insurer performance in the non‐life insurance market. Using data from 1992 to 2005, we assess performance in terms of efficiency measures using data envelopment analyses (DEA) techniques. Our results show that higher levels of domestic financial institution ownership in Japan are associated with insurer inefficiency. Relative to that relationship, the foreign ownership–insurer efficiency relationship is found to be positive. Additionally, we find that the disparity between those relationships has become more acute since 2001 when the Japanese non‐life insurance market experienced significant consolidation.     

The Impact of Size,Stock Market Listing and Industry Type on Disclosure in the Annual Reports of Japanese Listed Corporations

This paper represents a contribution to rigorous testing of Japanese financial reporting and specifically reports on the impact of size, stock market listing and industry type on disclosure, both voluntary and mandatory, in the annual reports of Japanese listed corporations. The topic is of interest because findings in one country may not be applicable to Japan because of its so-called unique business environment and unique culture. It is found that size and listing status are important explanatory variables. In addition, manufacturing corporations were found to disclose significantly more information than other types of Japanese corporations. The interaction between industry type and quotation status was also found to be significant.     

China,Japan and the US Stock Markets and the Global Financial Crisis

In this paper, while focusing on the impact that the global financial crisis had on the stock markets of China, Japan, and the United States, the stock-price volatilities and linkage between these three countries are analyzed. In addition, the relationships between macroeconomic variables (real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables) and stock price volatility in each country are investigated. The estimation results of the EGARCH model revealed that although China’s stock price volatility was far greater than those of Japanese and US stock prices, China was less affected by the global financial crisis in 2007 than Japan and the United States. For China, stock price volatility was greater in the early 1990s, shortly after the stock market had been established, than in 2007 when the global financial crisis occurred. Furthermore, it has been revealed that the linkage of Chinese, Japanese, and US stock prices has increased since the global financial crisis. Moreover, Granger causality testing revealed China’s real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables do not affect China’s stock price volatility.     

Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US

This paper examines the magnitude of return and volatility spillovers from Japan and the US to seven Asian equity markets. I construct a volatility spillover model that deals with the US shock as an exogenous variable in a bivariate EGARCH for Japan and Asian markets. First, only the influence of the US is important for Asian market returns; there is no influence from Japan. Second, the volatility of the Asian market is influenced more by the Japanese market than by the US. Third, there exists an adverse influence of volatility from the Asian market to the Japanese market.     

What determines the Japanese corporate credit spread? A new evidence

This paper investigates the determinants of the corporate credit spreads changes in the Japanese bond markets. We show that the business cycle risk and market skewness risk affect changes in the credit spread in Japan even after controlling for the frequently used variables. We also find that the magnitude of market skewness risk is relatively higher for low-rated bonds. Our results are robust to changes in credit ratings, different maturity groups and time periods around the recent global financial crisis.     

Converging to International Accounting Standards: Views from Japan

Many countries, including the European Union member states and Australia, adopted international accounting standards in 2005. This year was also critical in Japan for convergence activities. Based on a review of 2005 financial statements and a survey of securities analysts, this study identifies key issues for convergence of Japanese and international accounting standards. We find that accounting requirements relating to fair value measurement, comprehensive income items, leases and business combinations are relevant to Japanese firms. A survey of 974 members of the Security Analysts Association of Japan about these issues indicated support for convergence and the use of fair value measurement, disclosure of comprehensive income, recognition of leases and use of the purchase method for consolidation. We report support for several positions favoured by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), a positive signal for achieving convergence goals in Japan, which will be of interest to capital market participants in Japan and other countries .     

Financial Markets and Economic Growth*

In this reprinting of the Nobel Prize‐winning financial economist's classic statement about the origins of financial crises, the Southeast Asian crisis of the late 1990s is attributed “not to too much reliance on financial markets, but to too little.” Like the U.S. economy a century ago, the emerging Asian economies did not then—and do not now—have well‐developed capital markets and remain heavily dependent on their banking systems to finance growth. But for all its benefits, banking is not only basically 19th‐century technology, but disaster‐prone technology. And in the summer of 1997, a banking‐driven disaster struck in East Asia, just as it had struck so many times before in U.S. history. During the 20th century, the author argues, the U.S. economy reduced its dependence on banks by developing “dispersed and decentralized” financial markets. In so doing, it increased the efficiency of the capital allocation process and reduced the economy's vulnerability to the credit crunches that have recurred throughout U.S. history. By contrast, Japan has not reduced its economy's dependence on banks, and its efforts to deal with its banking problems during the crisis of the late'90s served only to destabilize itself as well as its neighbors. Developing countries in Asia and elsewhere are urged not to follow the Japanese example, but to take measures aimed at developing financial markets and institutions that will either substitute for or, in some cases, complement bank products and services.     

Stock Market Reaction to the Bank Liquidation in Japan: A Case for the Informational Effect Hypothesis

Previous studies investigating the stock market reaction to U.S. bank failures rejected the bank run or domino hypothesis. However, if providing relevant bank information to the public is crucial to preventing bank panics, Japanese banks with limited disclosure are more vulnerable to bank runs than their U.S. counterparts. In this paper, I investigate the stock market reaction to Hyogo Bank's liquidation on August 30, 1995, which was the first bank liquidation in Japan and placed the financial burden on the general public. I find that stock market participants distinguished solvent banks from problematic banks. That is, my results, supporting the informational effect hypothesis, suggest that it is questionable even in Japan for the government to bail out an insolvent bank based on the potential risk of bank runs.