Een model voor de voorspelling van de invloed van investeringsbeslissingen op de ontwikkeling van de onderneming

Summary This paper presents an econometric model for the purpose of forecasting simultaneously the time paths of a firm's plant, sales, debtors, capital disposal (own and borrowed), costs of various kinds, creditors, liquidities, profits and total investments, as functions of four exogenous variables (investment in plant, disuse of parts of the plant, wage rate and writing-off) and a few predetermined endogenous variables. More specifically, the consequences of alternative investment projects for financing are investigated. The equations for „explaining” items of the profit and loss account are quite good, but those for „explaining” items of the balance sheet appear to be less satisfactory. The model relates to small and medium-sized industrial firms operating on many small orders and not holding stocks (for instance, service industries) where wages are less than 60% of the out-of-pocket expenses. Dit artikel is het verslag van een onderzoek waarin het modeltechnische en econometrische deel werd verzorgd door drs. H. S. van der Kwast, P. B. D. Hilfrink en W. D. Pelger. Het werd mogelijk gemaakt door een subsidie van de Nederlandse Organisatie voor Zuiver Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek Z.W.O. onder subsidienummer 247-19. De auteur is aan Prof. Dr. J. Koerts zeer veel dank verschuldigd voor zijn opmerkingen betreffende onderzoek en artikel.     

Gedragsmodellen van de Economische Groei

Summary Two behavioural models of economic growth are developed: a neo-classical and a neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) one.In the neo-classical model consumers aspire to a certain level of consumption. Savings and supply of labour (man-hours) are the means for reaching this level.In the neo-keynesian model firms and households have a certain aspiration level with respect to profits and consumption, respectively. To reach these levels firms decide to invest and households to supply man-hours.In both models growth is entirely dependent on the parameters of the behaviour equations. In this respect they differ from the traditional neo-classical and neo-keynesian (Kaldorian) models, in which growth is eventually determined by autonomous technical progress and growth of the labour force.     

Een onderzoek naar de invloed van monetaire factoren op het reële groeiproces in enkele traditionele theorieën van economische groei (III)

Summary This is the third of three successive papers on the problem of to what extent monetary phenomena influence the real variables in a process of economic growth. In the first paper the conditions under which money is neutral was examined. The second was devoted to the impact of money in a neo-classical growth model. In the present paper the real neo-keynesian growth model of Harrod is taken as a starting-point. This is a special case of the neo-classical model, for the introduction of a constant rate of interest in a neoclassical production structure yields a constant capital-labor ratio as a result. According to the Harrod model, capital scarcity or capital abundance will generally prevail. Stable growth is a mere accident. Subsequently, the assumption of a constant rate of interest is relaxed. The rate is now assumed to be dependent on the national product and the money supply. This makes the model more flexible. Control of the growth rate of the money supply is then an instrument in the hands of the monetary authorities for the purpose of preventing situations of capital scarcity or abundance. In the case of capital scarcity, the growth rate of the money supply has to be raised. Paradoxically enough, the result of this will be that the rate of interest rises. In a situation of capital abundance the opposite is true. A steady and stable growth path is possible, because the monetary authorities are in a position to let the rate of interest take a value at which full employment prevails.      

De wet van Walras (II)

Summary Walras' Law occupies an important place in the discussions about some famous controversies such as the Patinkin-controversy and that between the Loanable Funds Theory and the Liquidity Preference Theory. After a brief introductory section about the contents and the basis of this theorem, the question of the traditionally attached identity predicate is discussed. In this connection it seemed useful to distinguish between: (a) equilibrium equations, (b) falsifiable identities, and (c) tautological identities. Walras' Law belongs to the class of falsifiable identities, because — given the assumption of the validity of the budget principle and the traditionally used definition of the excess demand concept — the Walrasian Theorem is valid even in disequilibrium situations, although it can be falsified in the real world. The second part of this study has been devoted to the question for which economic models this law can be said to be appropriate. In this connection the criticisms of Hansen, Rose, Archibald and Lipsey, Patinkin, Clower, and Tsiang have been thoroughly studied. The final conclusion is that the expressed criticisms cannot stand up, unless the underlying assumptions are changed,e.g., if a system of highly monopolized markets is chosen in stead of the traditional general equilibrium analysis based on perfect or monopolistic competition. Generally speaking, we may say that Walras' Law is also valid in inflationary, unemployment or non-tatonnement models, because these additional assumptions do not necessarily violate the above-mentioned underlying assumptions of the Walrasian Theorem. These basic assumptions are very useful and fairly reasonable in such a general equilibrium analysis, but they are neither necessarily inevitable nor always sufficiently realistic.

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Het eerste gedeelte van dit artikel is opgenomen in De Economist 1968, aflevering 4.     

Specificatie van economische relaties

Summary This inaugural address outlines the logical, theoretical, methodological and practical conditions to be satisfied by economic models.Among the logical requirements, additivity of systems of economic relations is discussed, as well as the boundary conditions to which they should conform.It is shown how the theory of economic behaviour of consumers and of producers, based on the assumed tendency towards optimalization, may contribute to the specification of theform as well as the contents of the pertinent relations. Keeping the relations as flexible and as uniform as possible is considered as a desirable objective. Particular attention is paid to applying the principle of analogy in economic science, a.o. by drawing upon laws of nature.Simplicity and manageability of the relations are mentioned as the main practical requirements. However, conditions of higher priority should be met first. On this score, linear and exponential functions as such often fail, but they may comply when incorporated in more general relationships, such as the so-called allocation models. Thus, for the choice of form and contents of economic relations, precedence of theory over empiry is advocated on principle as well as for its practicality.Rede, uitgesproken op 9 maart 1967 ter gelegenheid van de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar aan de Nederlandse Economische Hogeschool.     

Toepassing van de wet van Pareto op de lage inkomens

Summary Pareto’s Law may be applied only to the upper 50 per cent. of the incomes. In order to render it also applicable to the lower 50 per cent., the cumuled per cents. of the income recipients in this range must be calculated from poorest to richest. This can be established by making an examination of empirical material, and by comparing the log-log. scale with the log-normal distribution. The 10 per cent. highest incomes are higher, and the 10 per cent. lowest lower, than would follow from a log-normal distribution. Here, special factors are apparently exerting an influence upon the income distribution. The deviations from the log-normal distribution and the dispersion within this distribution are characteristic of a certain income distribution and are, therefore, important.     

De Theorie van de Inkomensverdeling en het welzijn van de huisvrouw

Summary The author presents some comments on the discussion between Mrs. Bruyn-Hundt and Prof. Tinbergen inDe Economist, 1973, nr. 6. In analysing the welfare of housewives, the nature of the family and of the raising of children, which is one of the ultimate aimes of human life, should be taken into account. Before deciding if, and to what extent, the unpaid services of housewives and other members of the family should be included in the national income, a production boundary within households should be defined. It is doubtful whether the inclusion of unpaid domestic services in the definition of national income is very useful for purposes of economic analysis.     

Herverdelingspolitiek van hoofdzaak naar bijzaak?

Summary A more equitable personal distribution cannot be achieved exclusively by a general incomes policy which changes primary distribution only. In that case people that have left the labour force are beyond the scope of incomes policy because their incomes often consist of transfers. Neither can redistribution instruments be considered as pseudo-policies for these groups. An effective incomes policy will therefore have not only to bring about fundamental changes in the conditions of supply and demand on the factor markets, but to make use of transfers as well.

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Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar in de staathuishoudkunde aan de Nederlandse Economische Hogeschool te Rotterdam op 20 april 1972.     

Het Landbouwverslag van 1880 en de oogst van 1882

Verslag over den landbouw in Nederland1880, opgemaakt op last van den Minister van Waterstaat, Handel en Nijverheid, door C. J. M.Jongkindt Coninck. — 's Gravenhage. — f l. —.     

Vernieuwing van concessies en erfpachten ten behoeve van landbouwondernemingen in Nederlandsch Oost-Indie

In een inleiding tot dit opstel had de schrijver, in de meening dat men bij de uitgifte in verschillende streken moest stuiten op het z.g. beschik-kingsrecht van inheemsche gemeenschappen, betrokken de vraag van het eigendomsrecht der in erfpacht uit te geven gronden. Hij wees daarin op de eigenaardige wijze van het ontstaan van dit beschikkingsrecht, als gevolg eener naar westersch recht geheel onbekende wijze van organisatie der eigendomsrechten. Op het moment namelijk van de occupatie van den bodem door leden van dergelijke gemeenschap, verkregen deze slechts een gebruiksrecht, terwijl de gemeenschap, waarvan zij lid waren, het beschikkingsrecht verkreeg. Dit z.g. inlandsch beschikkingsrecht, ontstaan als afgeleid recht bij de occupatie, moest naar de meening van schrijver dan ook strikt beperkt blijven tot het rechtmatig in bezit genomen terrein. Van zeer deskundige zijde werd echter opgemerkt, dat Prof. van Vollenhoven schreef: Geen handhaving van adatrechten, die de ontwikkeling van het land in den weg staan, zoodat de verklaring van het inl. beschikkingsrecht in deze slechts van academisch belang is. In overleg met de Redactie bleef daarom de behandeling van het eigendomsrecht op den uit te geven grond achterwege.     

Een monografie over leven en werk van Pareto

Summary The Economic Epistemology of Vilfredo Pareto by P. Tommissen (Brussels, 1971, in Dutch) contains much new material on Pareto's life and the development of his thought, as well as an almost exhaustive bibliography of the literature on Pareto. The work, though valuable in various respects, is marred by defects of arrangement and style and by serious weaknesses in its theoretical parts. It deserves a translation into English after being thoroughly revised.     

De Robbenvangst van New-Foundland

Door sommige Staten, als Engeland en Duitschland zijn, in den laatsten tijd wettelijke maatregelen genomen om de nitputting van de robbenvangst te voorkomen. Ook door de Nederlandsche regering is daartoe een ontwerp ingediend. In verband daarmede zullen deze mededeelingen van een onzer medewerkers voorzeker belangstelling outmoeten,Red     

De produktiestructuur van Nederland in de periode 1950-1966

Summary In 1961 Arrow, Chenery, Minhas and Solow presented their C.E.S. production function, which was based on the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity. They argued that, if the aggregate production function is continuous, lineair and homogeneous, then, with perfect competition and profit maximalization prevailing, the relation between the real wage rate and the average labour productivity is reflection of the production structure. This relation can, therefore, be used for specifying the production structure.In the present paper, the same line of thought is applied to the Dutch economy. Several hypotheses on the relation between wage rate and average labour productivity are tested. Statistically, it turns out that in the Dutch economy the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour is not a constant: it declines with increasing capital-labour ratio. Two statistically acceptable production equations that have this feature are presented.The efficiency parameter appearing as an integration constant in both production equations shows a decline: with labour productivity constant, the capital-labour ratio is falling over time. This means that the relation between labour productivity and capital-labour ratio shifts over time. Another outcome of this study is that technical progress is capitalaugmenting and that it brings about 50 percent of the growth in the labour productivity.De schrijvers zijn dank verschuldigd aan Prof. Dr. F. J. de Jong voor zijn stimulerende kritiek en aan de heren J. G. Althuis, F. J. van Bolhuis, J. D. Flikweert, H. Jager en B. S. Wilpstra, assistenten bij de afdeling Algemene Economie van de Economische Faculteit der Rijksuniversiteit te Groningen, voor hun bereidwillige medewerking aan dit onderzoek.     

De Instellingen van Voorzorg,opgericht door de Maatschappij tot Nut van 't Algemeen

Dit opstel is geschreven naar aanleiding van de uitnoodiging, door La Société des Institutions de prévoyance de France tot het hoofdbestuur gericht, dat de Maatschappij op de derde zitting van het algemeen wetenschappelijk congres betreffende deze instellingen, dat den 3 Juli a. s. te Parijs zal gehouden worden, vertegenwoordigd zij.In hoofdzaak bevat het den inhoud der memories, welke in 1878, ten behoeve van het Iste congres, en nu onlangs ten behoeve van het 3de congres bovengenoemd, naar Parijs zijn gezonden en in de archieven van het fransche genootschap bewaard blijven. De memorie van 1878, welke alleen een overzicht van de spaarbanken tot 1876–77 bevatte, werd opgesteld door mr. J. G. N. de Hoop Scheffer en op de eerste zitting van het congres door mr. J. L. de Bruyn Kops, toenmalig gedelegeerde der Nederlandsche regeering, nader toegelicht. De memorie van 1889 werd door den schrijver dezes bewerkt uit de gedenkschriften en jaarboeken der Maatschappij en, wat den tegenwoordigen toestand en het tabellarische overzicht der spaarbanken betreft, uit de officieele gegevens, hem tot den aanvang van dit jaar, door tusschenkomst van de besturen der departementen, met de meeste welwillendheid verstrekt.     

Over de beheersbaarheid van de geldhoeveelheid in Nederland

Summary The well-known multiplier approach to money supply processes is extended to the case of the open economy of the Netherlands. It was found, first, that the Dutch banking system serves as an important buffer in the Dutch money supply process. Second, the short-run elasticities of money supply and money demand with respect to the call-money rate were found to be +0.23 and −0.09 respectively. Third, the impact multiplier of money with respect to the open market policy variable turned out to be 0.52. The conclusion is that the Dutch central bank is capable, in principle, to control the stock of money in the short run.

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Rede, uitgesproken bij de aanvaarding van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar in de staathuishoudkunde aan de Rijksuniversiteit te Rotterdam op donderdag 22 maart 1973.     

Woonruimte,huren en woonwensen van Amsterdamse Gezinnen in 1962

Summary This is an analysis of the sample survey returns of some 200 homogeneous households who were asked for both actual and desired housing accomodation and rent, for their intention to move and for their income. These households are divided into four groups by two family sizes and by the intention to move, and several relations are studied by a covariance analysis based on the individual household data. The main objects of the analysis are (i) to establish Engel curves for housing space (number of rooms) and quality (rent per room), (ii) to compare these relations for actual and desired values, and (iii) to assess what rent levels would be acceptable in the absence of rent control which is still enforced. The main result is that the households' wishes follow the same pattern as their actual conditions; the income elasticity of quantity demand for housing varies from .25 to .40 with family size and with the intention to move; for the desired accommodation the same elasticity is about .30. The income elasticity of housing quality (rent per room) is uniformly .35 for all households and for both actual conditions and the households wishes. The maximum acceptable rent level — which varies from 20% to 15% of income — is finally obtained by determining at what level desired rent and actual rent coincide so that the household does not envisage a further increase in housing expenditure.

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Gaarne betuig ik mijn dank aan de Gemeentelijke Woningdienst van Amsterdam, die de gegevens beschikbaar stelde; aan de heer M. F. Koeman, die de berekeningen uitvoerde en met name tot de laatste paragrafen van dit artikel veel bijdroeg; en aan de heer A. Pais, die het onderzoek met stimulerend commentaar begeleidde.     

Berekening van den omvang der werkloosheid als gevolg van prijsdaling in een gesloten economisch milieu

Dit artikel is een onderdeel van een meer uitvoerige studie getiteld De labilisatie van het economisch leven en de middelen ter bestrijding. De noodzakelijkheid van een rationeel geldstelsel, welke binnenkort bij de N.V. H. D. Tjeenk Willink & Zoon te Haarlem zal verschijnen. 1n) Het eerst vermeld in zijn in 1803 verschenen Traité d'Economie politique, Chap. 15. Voor verdere literatuuropgave zie o.a.Dr. Leonhard Miksch, Gibt es eine allgemeine Ueberproduktion ? Gustav Fisher, 1929.     

UitDe Economist van 1894

Ohne Zusammenfassung

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Fromde Economisst in 1894

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Twee vergaderingen van voorstanders van het bimetallisme, blz. 522–532.

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translated by Richard Gigengack     

Theo van de Klundert: A frontier economist

Summary Twenty-five years ago, Dr. Theo van de Klundert was appointed as Professor of Economics at Tillburg University. On the occassion of this jubilee the authors review Van de Klundert's contribution to the study of economic science in the The Netherlands. The article focuses on four topics: (1) growth and income distribution, (2) capital theory, resource economics and trade, (3) controversies between Keynesians and (4) open economy macroeconomics. A short remark is made about his teaching. Van de Klundert is praised for the quality and the comprehension of his scientific work.The authors are grateful to S.K. Kuipers and M. Peeters for their useful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Economisch-historische aspecten van de ontwikkeling van het veilingwezen in de afzet van Nederlandse agrarische producten

Rede, gehouden bij het aanvaarden van het ambt van gewoon hoogleraar in de economische en sociale geschiedenis aan de Nederlandsche Economische Hoogeschool te Rotterdam op 4 Maart 1954. De tekst van het hier gepubliceerde artikel is niet volledig uitgesproken.