例谈古典概型计算中的排列组合问题

通过对一个典型放球入盒问题几种解法的分析与比较,探讨了古典概型计算中排列组合的应用,并进一步强调了样本空间选取时应注意的问题。     

概率中的几何概型与古典概型的“误”与“悟”

本文在解决古典概型与几何概型求概率的问题上给出了详细的分析,从怎样区分所给问题是否为古典概型还是几何概型,以及对两种概型具体应如何解决问题求概率给出了详细的阐述。     

服务型制造业岗位新划分:模块型工作与磨合型工作——基于岗位与外部互动方式的视角

本文基于工作岗位与外部互动方式的视角,提出了服务型制造业岗位新的划分方式,并对不同岗位类型的管理思想和模式进行了探讨。     

公路工程概、预算编制中常见的问题及对策

公路工程概、预算是一项重要的工作,本文对当前公路工程概、预算编制中常见的问题进行了分析并提出了问题的对策。     

企业竞争优势的生态观阐释

企业竞争优势的理论分析已成为目前战略管理理论的一个热点,本文通过对一系列竞争优势理论的梳理和分析,提出一种新的观点,即企业竞争优势生态观,以期揭示企业可持续发展的深层次原因。     

概率统计在实际生活中的应用

现主要研究了概率统计在实际生活中的应用,包括将概率中的古典概型,全概率公式等知识应用到生活的各个领域并进一步讲解概率在保险业、排队问题和遗传病问题中的具体应用。     

基于区间二型模糊集的VIKOR多属性决策方法研究

针对传统VIKOR方法不能处理不确定语言信息的缺陷,本文在VIKOR方法的基础上提出了一种基于区间二型模糊的VIKOR扩展方法用于解决多属性决策问题。首先介绍了区间二型模糊的概念、运算法则,接着定义了一种新的计算区间二型模糊集之间的距离公式,在此基础上提出基于区间二型模糊的VIKOR扩展方法。最后,通过一个算例说明该方法的有效性和合理性。     

涡旋压缩机的研究

在空调系统中,新的制冷工质对涡旋压缩机的结构提出新的要求。经过结构改进,对涡旋压缩机进行研究,涡旋压缩机将会有更大的发展空间。     

浅谈流程型组织的构建动因

信息技术的发展，加速了经济全球化，使市场“3C”特征更加明显，这一切都要求组织进行变革，打破原来部门间的组织职能，建立新的流程型组织。本文通过对组织的内外部环境分析，阐明了流程型组织构建的动因。     

浅析铁路工程调概索赔策略

铁路项目造价控制是通过概算来控制的,设计院出据的经审核的核备概算是在初步设计基础上编制的,但投资检算仅是对设计的一种考核而不是工程造价的控制指标。这就造成由于设计深度不同造成工程造价不能反映最终的工程施工情况,设计院为了不受到处罚,在投检编制过程中出现可能超概算的情况时,采用人为降低造价标准或一些需发生项目不计算费用的办法,来使投检额控制在概算范围内。为此,如何做好铁路工程的调概索赔管理、通过项目经营求得效益最大化更具挑战性。     

How to Construct a Random Probability Measure

This article presents an overview of several constructive methods for generating random probability measures. Applications of random probability measures include Bayesian statistics, average optimal control problems, average error bounds for numerical equation solving methods, and models for random distributions of mass in space.     

Goodness of Fit for Discrete Random Variables Using the Conditional Density

In this paper we find a new test of goodness of fit in the case of discrete random variables. The main advantage of the methodology proposed in this paper relies on the fact that given the sample, we can control the probability of the type I error, that is α, and then find the exact value of the probability of the type II error, β, associated, in some cases. The results are not asymptotic, but exact. Also a conditional test for two alternatives is obtained. We also include some simulations in order to check the power of the procedures.Mathematics Subject Classification (2000) Primary 62G10 · 62B05 · Secondary 62E10     

基于向量理论的随机变量分解

在向量空间理论应用于概率论研究的基础上,讨论了随机变量作为向量的分解问题,得到了随机变量的分解定理,并利用分解定理给出了二维随机变量相关系数的几何意义。     

Random Sets: Models and Statistics

This paper surveys aspects of the theory of random closed sets, focussing on issues of practical and current interest. First, some historical remarks on this part of probability theory are made, where the important role of Georges Matheron is emphasized. Then, fundamental characteristics of the distribution of random closed sets are introduced. The very important Boolean model serves as an example for discussing mathematical and statistical problems. A number of further models is then considered, namely excursion sets of random fields, the system of edges of the Poisson Voronoi tessellation and various random systems of non-overlapping spheres. Finally, some ideas of particle statistics are presented, including some models of random compact sets.     

Testing the Correlated Random Coefficient Model

The recent literature on instrumental variables (IV) features models in which agents sort into treatment status on the basis of gains from treatment as well as on baseline-pretreatment levels. Components of the gains known to the agents and acted on by them may not be known by the observing economist. Such models are called correlated random coe cient models. Sorting on unobserved components of gains complicates the interpretation of what IV estimates. This paper examines testable implications of the hypothesis that agents do not sort into treatment based on gains. In it, we develop new tests to gauge the empirical relevance of the correlated random coe cient model to examine whether the additional complications associated with it are required. We examine the power of the proposed tests. We derive a new representation of the variance of the instrumental variable estimator for the correlated random coefficient model. We apply the methods in this paper to the prototypical empirical problem of estimating the return to schooling and nd evidence of sorting into schooling based on unobserved components of gains.     

Random non-response in multi-character surveys

In the present investigation, we have made first shot to propose an alternative estimator of population total, in the presence of random non-response, for multi-characteristics by using probability proportional to size and without replacement (PPSWOR) sampling when the selection probabilities are poorly correlated with the study variables. The mean square error (MSE) expressions are derived for the proposed estimator. The behavior of the proposed estimator has been examined under super population model. An empirical study has also been carried out to look into the performance of the proposed estimator. The proposed estimator has been applied to real data set.     

Sample Design and Allocation for Random Digit Dialling

Sample design and sample allocation methods are developed for random digit dialling in household telephone surveys. The proposed method is based on a two-way stratification of telephone numbers. A weighted probability proportional to size sample allocation technique is used, with auxiliary variables about the telephone coverage rates, within local telephone exchanges of each substrata. This makes the sampling design nearly “self-weighting” in residential numbers when the prior information is well assigned. A computer program generates random numbers for the local areas within the existing phone capacities. A simulation study has shown greater sample allocation gain by the weighted probabilities proportional to size measures over other sample allocation methods. The amount of dialling required to obtain the sample is less than for proportional allocation. A decrease is also observed on the gain in sample allocation for some methods through the increasing sample sizes.     

如何对高新技术企业实施产品抽检

从深圳开展对高新技术企业现状调查及对高新技术企业产品抽检的实例出发，阐述了对高新技术企业产品实施监督抽查的必要性及困难，并详细介绍了可行的做法。     

Random scheduling with deadlines under dichotomous preferences

A group of individuals share a deterministic server which is capable of serving one job per unit of time. Every individual has a job and a cut off time slot (deadline) where service beyond this slot is as worthless as not getting any service at all. Individuals are indifferent between slots which are not beyond their deadlines (compatible slots). A schedule (possibly random) assigns the set of slots to individuals by respecting their deadlines. We only consider the class of problems where for every set of relevant slots (compatible with at least one individual) there are at least as many individuals who have a compatible slot in that set: we ignore the case of underdemand. For this class, we characterize the random scheduling rule which attaches uniform probability to every efficient deterministic schedule (efficient uniform rule) by Pareto efficiency, equal treatment of equals, and probabilistic consistency (Chambers, 2004). We also show that a weaker version of the probabilistic consistency axiom is enough to achieve our result. Finally we show that efficient uniform rule is strategyproof.     

基于双自适应Lasso惩罚的随机效应分位回归模型研究

研究目标：解决随机效应分位回归模型中固定效应和随机效应系数同时估计和选择问题。研究方法：对固定效应和随机效应系数同时实施自适应Lasso惩罚,并为参数估计设计交替迭代算法。研究发现：新方法不仅对随机误差分布具有较强的稳健性,而且在不同稀疏度模型下均有着良好的表现,尤其是在高维情形时。研究创新：本文提出的方法在对模型中重要自变量进行选择的同时能够充分考虑随机效应的影响;交替迭代算法不仅有效解决了需要选择两个惩罚参数的困境,而且收敛速度快。研究价值：为实际工作者对面板数据和纵向数据的分析提供了有效的建模方法。