Trade Opening,Fiscal Reforms,Poverty, and Inequality: A CGE Analysis for Bangladesh

We assess the short‐ and long‐run impacts of tariff reform policies on Bangladeshi households' poverty and income distribution by developing an 86‐sector, four‐factor, and nine‐household‐group computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The main findings are that the complete removal of tariffs leads to a decrease in overall poverty with rich household groups in a relatively better position. In the short run poverty incidence increases for rural landless, urban illiterate, and low‐educated household groups whereas rural large farmer and urban medium household groups enjoy improvements in all poverty indicators. In terms of income distribution, trade liberalization enhances inequality slightly, but there is a tendency towards more equitable distribution in the long run. The choice of a fiscal compensatory mechanism with consumption tax is likely to play a negative role in terms of poverty and inequality in the short run; however, interestingly, the results are pro‐poor in the long run.     

The Effect of Humanizing Robo‐Advisors on Investor Judgments*

We examine the effect of humanizing (naming) robo‐advisors on investor judgments, which has taken on increased importance as robo‐advisors have become increasingly common and there is currently little SEC regulation governing key aspects of their use. In our first experiment, we predict and find that investors are more likely to rely on the investment recommendation of an unnamed robo‐advisor, whereas they are more likely to rely on the investment recommendation of a named human advisor. Theory suggests one reason that naming a robo‐advisor may have drawbacks pertains to the complexity of the task the robo‐advisor performs. We explore the importance of task complexity in our second experiment. We predict and find that investors are less likely to rely on a named robo‐advisor when the advisor is perceived to be performing a relatively complex task, consistent with our first experiment, and more likely to rely on a named robo‐advisor when the advisor is perceived to be performing a relatively simple task, consistent with prior research on human‐computer interactions. Our findings contribute to the literature examining how technology influences the acquisition and use of financial information and the general literature on human‐computer interactions. Our study also addresses a call by the SEC to learn more about robo‐advisors. Lastly, our study has practical implications for wealth management firms by demonstrating the potentially negative effects of making robo‐advisors more humanlike in an attempt to engage and attract users.     

Political Economy of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area： A Dilemma for China

The Asia‐Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) has become a topic of focus since the proposal was first raised in 2004. The present paper considers China's policy towards the FTAAP from a political economy perspective by probing the gains, impediments and concerns for China, and makes judgments based on several possible scenarios. The author argues that from an economic perspective, China would benefit from joining the FTAAP both in a static and a dynamic manner because both its main trade partners and trade barriers in export markets are concentrated in the Asia‐Pacific region. However, whether the Chinese Government is likely to support the initiative is largely dependent on certain crucial political and diplomatic elements, including the APEC approach, US‐Chinese relations, quality of treaty, sensitive sectors, competitive proposal of alternative and membership of Chinese Taipei. Therefore, if the Chinese Government cannot ratify the ideology and terms of the initiative, or issues that are central to China's interests are not addressed, the FTAAP will only remain a proposal possessing economic possibility in the long run, without political feasibility in the near term.     

越南商事仲裁制度的最新发展

越南商事仲裁法在2010年进行了修改。与2003年的仲裁法相比,越南2010年仲裁法在仲裁管辖范围、仲裁员制度、仲裁协议、仲裁程序、司法支持和监督等方面都做出了较大改变。最后给有意前往越南经商的中国企业和自然人提供仲裁参考。     

Who Herds? Who Doesn't? Estimates of Analysts’ Herding Propensity in Forecasting Earnings

We develop parametric estimates of the imitation‐driven herding propensity of analysts and their earnings forecasts. By invoking rational expectations, we solve an explicit analyst optimization problem and estimate herding propensity using two measures: First, we estimate analysts’ posterior beliefs using actual earnings plus a realization drawn from a mean‐zero normal distribution. Second, we estimate herding propensity without seeding a random error, and allow for nonorthogonal information signals. In doing so, we avoid using the analyst's prior forecast as the proxy for his posterior beliefs, which is a traditional criticism in the literature. We find that more than 60 percent of analysts herd toward the prevailing consensus, and herding propensity is associated with various economic factors. We also validate our herding propensity measure by confirming its predictive power in explaining the cross‐sectional variation in analysts’ out‐of‐sample herding behavior and forecast accuracy. Finally, we find that forecasts adjusted for analysts’ herding propensity are less biased than the raw forecasts. This adjustment formula can help researchers and investors obtain better proxies for analysts’ unbiased earnings forecasts.     

ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE AND INTERNATIONAL INTERACTIONS : THE IMPACT OF MARKET POWER ON DYADIC CONFLICT AND COOPERATION

This article presents a theoretical approach to analysing how a country with market power could affect international relations. The liberal view and trade‐conflict model claim that if countries seek to protect their trade gains, trade will reduce conflict between pairs of countries, designated “actors” and “targets”. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of market power on the gains from trade. Once the distribution of trade gains is changed between countries, the conflict and cooperation relationships between countries will also alter. We apply the trade‐conflict model to derive two propositions as follows: (1) the more monopoly power over exports a monopolistic target has, the greater the amount of actor‐to‐target conflict; (2) the more monopsony power over imports a monopolistic target has, the greater the amount of actor‐to‐target conflict. To summarise, these hypotheses will predict that a country with market power reaps the gains from trade and will exhibit less conflict and more cooperation, whilst the country that is exploited will exhibit more conflict and less cooperation.     

Persuasive Advertising and Product Differentiation

We suggest a simple framework for characterizing alternative ways that “persuasive advertising” may affect consumer preferences. We illustrate the implications of our theory—and contrast it with results from models of informative advertising—by analyzing the relationship between the degree of product differentiation and equilibrium levels of advertising. The analysis suggests that a positive relationship between equilibrium levels of advertising and (inherent) product substitutability is consistent only with advertising that “increases perceived product differences.”     

The Growth Barriers of Informal Sector Enterprises: Evidence from India

The present study investigates the growth barriers of informal sector enterprises in India. The empirical analysis is based on the National Sample Survey Organization's unit‐level data for three years, 2000–2001, 2005–6, and 2010–11. The results of the study reveal: proprietary and large firms survive and grow; enterprises managed by women are less likely to decline; inadequate power supply poses a severe growth obstacle to all categories of firms; and proprietary firms encounter capital shortage while large firms are constrained by the non‐availability of raw materials. We do not find evidence of sub‐contracting acting as an enabling factor in firm growth.     

CEO Power and Relative Performance Evaluation

We model relative performance evaluation (RPE) when a Chief Executive Officer (CEO) has the power to opportunistically influence the design of RPE by choosing the weight on an index‐based peer group or by customizing the selection of peers comprising a peer group. A powerful CEO compares the benefits of reducing common risk affecting his compensation with the benefits of receiving a higher bonus by economizing on expected peer‐group performance. As a consequence, the Board of Directors (BoD) is less likely to use RPE. Our analytical model yields hypotheses predicting that powerful CEOs choose to reduce common risk only partially and that BoDs choose to not implement RPE if expected peer performance is sufficiently high. Our model has further empirical implications in (i) providing new interpretations of tests for detecting strong‐form and weak‐form RPE in the presence of powerful CEOs, and (ii) suggesting a new empirical measure of CEO power with a focus on the delegation of RPE decision rights.     

Comparison of Effects from Different Institutions: Public Credit Guarantee in Korea*

We aim to compare the activities of the two main credit guarantee institutions in Korea. There has been mounting criticism that although these institutions were mandated to play different roles in financing small and medium‐sized enterprises (SME), their operations are, in fact, similar, and many SME receive overlapping support from both institutions. Using the propensity score matching method (allowing for multiple, mutually exclusive support scenarios) to compare the effects of PCG on different institutions, the present study provides suggestions to help the government make decisions regarding the consolidation of PCG funds. The results suggest that the institutions function differently and target different SME. However, overlapping support enables firms to expand their sales only, indicating the existence of inefficiency in the case of overlapping support to firms.     

The Relation between Market Values,Earnings Forecasts,and Reported Earnings*

Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.     

Shareholder Activism and Voluntary Disclosure Initiation: The Case of Political Spending

Demand for disclosures on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues has increased dramatically. Using corporate political spending disclosures as our setting, we conduct a detailed inquiry of 541 political spending‐related shareholder proposals from 2004 to 2012 to highlight the role of shareholder activism as a mechanism to motivate ESG disclosure. Unlike earlier studies, we examine both proposals that went to a vote and proposals that were withdrawn by the activist, allowing us to assess more comprehensively the success of shareholder activism. We find that 20 percent of firms targeted by disclosure proposals begin disclosing in the subsequent year, although implementation rates vary by proposal type—8 percent for proposals subject to a vote versus 56 percent for proposals withdrawn. The sponsor is also important: unions and public pension funds are less likely than other activists to target firms with agency problems and are less successful in having proposals withdrawn, and the implementations they obtain are viewed more negatively by the broader investor base. Our findings highlight shareholder proposals as one mechanism through which investors can successfully express their preferences for corporate disclosure policies. Given activists' long‐standing interest in environmental and social disclosure policies, we believe our findings generalize to a broader set of ESG disclosures.     

Ex Post Settling Up in Cash Compensation: New Evidence

This paper provides new evidence on whether and how boards solve costly ex post settling up to recover CEO cash compensation for unrealized gains that fail to materialize. Our analyses are motivated by the likely expanding role for ex post settling up as the risk of compensating executives for unrealized gains that may never materialize increases in a more intangibles‐based economy, as well as by the conflicting evidence of prior research. We provide evidence consistent with ex post settling up by (i) using alternative truncation methods to derive observations most likely to fall within the theoretically motivated incentive zone; (ii) replicating and reconciling the conflicting results of prior research that supports (Leone et al. 2006) and fails to support (Shaw and Zhang 2010) ex post settling up; (iii) using Incentive Lab data with contract‐specific information, allowing strong identification of observations in the incentive zone; and (iv) documenting predictable cross‐sectional variation, with ex post settling up being more pronounced for firms with stronger corporate governance, less conservative accounting earnings, and a larger proportion of total pay in the form of cash compensation. Overall, we conclude that evidence is strong in support of the ex post settling up hypothesis.     

Cartel Organization,Price Discrimination,and Selection of Transatlantic Migrants: 1899–1911

We study the effects of trans‐Atlantic passenger shipping cartels on tourist/business and migrant traffic. Collusion had a smaller effect on first and second class service relative to third class service. Its effects were proportionately stronger eastbound, but less important in absolute numbers given smaller eastbound traffic. Collusion‐driven consumer substitution across classes was small but non‐negligible. Thus, collusion affected migrant traffic far more than tourist/business traffic. We also confirm that collusion led to higher fares across all cabin classes, especially for steerage. We construct and calibrate an analytical model and show that the pattern of observed prices and volumes are consistent with a profit‐maximizing cartel, thus buttressing the hypothesis that the collusion effects were causal. Finally, we document that collusion led to positive selection of migrants, as measured by literacy rates and financial resources.     

TESTING FOR PPP USING SADC REAL EXCHANGE RATES

This paper attempts to provide evidence indicating that the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle is becoming less of a puzzle. It present the results of Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, non-linear tests of non-stationarity and Bayesian unit root tests, applied to 10 Southern African Development Community countries. The Bayesian tests were found to be biased in favour of a trend stationary model in all cases. It is argued that non-linear approaches to exchange rate adjustments are likely to provide a firmer basis for inference and stronger support for the PPP in the long-term. This is more so at 1 and 5% levels of significance.     

Assessing opportunities and constraints related to different models for supplying wind turbines to the South African wind energy industry

We explore the opportunities and constraints in the development of a localised wind energy industry in South Africa by analysing four wind energy projects representing different models of wind turbine production as suggested by Lewis and Wiser. We find that each model has strategic challenges and opportunities, and that particularly in the early growth stage of the industry the ‘turbine assembly’ model (with low levels of local content) has important risk and financing advantages. With regard to broader socio-economic impacts, however, we confirm the expectation that the ‘full turbine manufacturing’ model (with high levels of local content) has a significantly higher job creation potential. In terms of resulting policy implications, we support local content requirements, but emphasise the need for a strategic, phased approach to the development of industry clusters, with support not only to power producers and manufacturers, but also their domestic suppliers.     

TESTING FOR PURCHASING POWER PARITY AND UNCOVERED INTEREST PARITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME SHIFTS

Testing for purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP) has been the focus of many empirically oriented studies. While these simple economic theories of exchange rate and interest rate determination are theoretically attractive, the empirical support for these equilibrium conditions is at best mixed. Many potential reasons have been cited in the literature for the failure of such studies, ranging from market imperfections to inappropriate modelling strategies. The current state‐of‐the‐art procedure involves testing for two cointegrating vectors in a multivariate error correction model which may be economically identified as the PPP and UIP relations. However, such a procedure does not account for policy regime shifts which distort the underlying PPP and UIP relations. In this paper, a Markov‐switching vector error correction model (VECM) is considered for time series data in which monetary and exchange rate regime shifts are known to be present. Weak evidence in favour of PPP and UIP is established in a standard linear VECM, although the residuals of this model indicate that it is inappropriate in terms of functional form. The Markov‐switching VECM, however, provides convincing evidence in favour of both the PPP and UIP relations and a marked improvement in the residual distributions.     

Sex imbalance,marital matching and intra-household bargaining: Evidence from China

This paper studies the effects of sex imbalance on matching patterns in China's marriage markets. We hypothesize that the economic inequality caused by economic liberalization, together with sex imbalance, will lead to women's hypergamy (marrying up). Employing CGSS data, our empirical findings support the hypothesis. We also establish that sex imbalance enhances the postnuptial bargaining power of the wife vis-à-vis the husband in intra-household resource allocation. The findings are robust to IV estimation and robustness checks.     

Low price conspiracy: Trade regulation and the case of Japanese electronics

Conclusion The analysis of low price conspiracy suggests that even if it were legal, it requires very special and uncommon conditions. Such conditions were not present in the U.S. television industry, and the Supreme Court correctly concluded that the evidence did not support the existence of a low price conspiracy involving Japanese television manufacturers. The Court indicated that persuasive actual cost evidence must be presented to overcome economic logic that predation is very unlikely. Predation can still be shown but the standard of proof is high. After all allegations of low price conspiracy may be more likely to limit competition than any actual low price conspiracy itself.     

Director Tenure Diversity and Board Monitoring Effectiveness

This study examines the impact of director tenure diversity on board effectiveness. We find that tenure‐diverse boards exhibit significantly higher CEO performance‐turnover sensitivity and that firms with tenure‐diverse audit committees are less likely to experience accounting restatements. Furthermore, we document that tenure‐diverse compensation committees also award less excess compensation and are less likely to overcompensate. Even though tenure‐diverse boards seem to exhibit superior monitoring performance, there is limited evidence that their firms exhibit superior financial performance. The findings suggest that recent calls for board renewal, to the extent that it would increase tenure diversity rather than just decrease average board tenure, may help enhance board monitoring.