Predicting Efficiency in Angolan Banks: A Two‐Stage TOPSIS and Neural Networks Approach

This paper presents an efficiency assessment of the Angolan banks using Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). TOPSIS is a multi‐criteria decision‐making technique similar to data envelopment analysis, which ranks a finite set of units based on the minimisation of distance from an ideal point and the maximisation of distance from an anti‐ideal point. In this research, TOPSIS is used first in a two‐stage approach to assess the relative efficiency of Angolan banks using the most frequent indicators adopted by the literature. Then, in the second stage, neural networks are combined with TOPSIS results as part of an attempt to produce a model for banking performance with effective predictive ability. The results reveal that variables related to cost structure have a prominent negative impact on efficiency. Findings also indicate that the Angolan banking market would benefit from higher level of competition between institutions.     

外资银行进入对东道国银行业效率的影响——东欧国家的经验与中国的实践

东欧国家银行改革的经验表明,外资银行进入能普遍提高东道国银行业的效率。但是,外资银行发挥积极作用亦取决于一定条件:东道国经济发展水平、银行业规模及发育程度、监管水平、银行业的改革路径和引资方式。本文在综述东欧国家银行业改革经验的基础上,提出中国银行业改革的7个命题,并用中国24家银行1999～2006年间的数据构建模型进行检验,最后得出结论:短期内外资银行进入会导致东道国银行业利润水平下降、风险管理水平上升,在中国的背景下可以认定这是外资银行积极作用的发挥;外资银行机构数量的增加和持股比重的上升都能刺激中国银行业效率的改进,但是外资银行持股比重的影响更具普遍性;不同类型银行对外资银行进入的反应存在差异,国有商业银行反应比较迟钝,而股份制和城市商业银行反应比较迅速。     

Cost efficiency,economies of scale,technological progress and productivity in Indonesian banks

This study estimates cost efficiency, economies of scale, technological progress, and productivity growth among Indonesian banks from 1993 to 2000. Average cost efficiency for the banking sector over this period was 70%. However, there is a marked difference in cost efficiency before and after the Asian economic crisis. The banking sector cost efficiency was 80% prior to the crisis and 53% after the crisis. Moreover, results indicate that private-owned banks and joint venture/foreign banks were more efficient than public-owned banks. Furthermore, the relationship between cost efficiency and total assets suggests an optimum bank asset size. Cost reductions attributed to technological progress and economies of scale were greater prior to the Asian economic crisis. Larger decreases in total factor productivity are evident in the post-crisis period.     

What Drives Cost Efficiency of Banks in China?

This study uses stochastic frontier analysis to examine the factors that influenced cost efficiency of banks in China from 2005 to 2013. The results indicate that policy variables, such as the reserve requirement ratio, the interest rate spread and open market operations by the People's Bank of China, are effective in improving the cost efficiency of banks, but shadow banking variables may reduce cost efficiency. Among the various bank types, city commercial banks appear to be the most efficient and foreign banks are the least efficient. The present study suggests that policy‐makers can have a positive influence on bank cost efficiency by adjusting macro policy variables on different types of banks and by requiring more information on the shadow banking activities to improve monitoring.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of China's financial reform—The efficiency of China's domestic banks

This paper estimates the cost and profit efficiency of the Chinese domestic banking sector to evaluate the effectiveness of China's financial reforms since 1978. We use the performance of foreign banks as the benchmark because foreign banks, subject to intensive worldwide competition, are perceived as possessing superior governing structure and organization, more advanced technologies and better trained labor force. On the other hand, competition in China's banking sector is mainly in the form of nonprice measures, thus putting foreign banks at a disadvantage. We find domestic banks have gradually caught up the cost advantage of foreign banks in a manner consistent with the increased competitive pressure. On the other hand, the profit advantage of domestic banks over foreign banks is widening because of institutional arrangements, cultural and social networks as well as the profit scope and revenue scale economy.     

外资银行进入与东道国银行体系的效率改进--新兴市场国家的截面数据分析

20世纪90年代以来,外资银行在新兴市场国家银行体系中的重要性不断提高。外资银行的进入能否改善东道国银行体系的效率是学界非常关注的问题。鉴于此,本文专门针对新兴市场国家的经验情况展开分析,认为外资银行对东道国银行体系效率的改善有赖于有效竞争的环境,并受到一定的约束条件和传导路径的限制。东道国金融发展的深度、金融监管的水平、外资银行的数量及经营管理水平等都会对其银行体系效率的改进产生重要影响。通过截面数据分析,本文提出了新兴市场国家在外资银行大举进入的情况下,如何改进本国银行体系效率的相关政策主张。     

Labour use efficiency in the Indian and Pakistani commercial banks

The Indian and Pakistani banking industry is said to have an excessive use of labour due to the significant market share of government owned banks. Both countries have undertaken a process of regulatory reform to bring about market discipline in the usage of inputs and to increase the labour use efficiency and productivity. The focus of this paper is the estimation of productivity and efficiency of labour use in the banking sectors of the Indian sub-continent. The results show that the efficiency of labour use across the Indian sub-continent is improving over time and that foreign banks are more efficient compared to domestically owned banks in their usage of labour.     

Drivers of technical efficiency in Malaysian banking: a new empirical insight

Restructuring and rationalisation of Malaysian banking in 2000 and the subsequent policy of deregulation and liberalisation adopted by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) have resulted in a significant transformation of Malaysian banking. Banks are now poised to play a pivotal role in the economic transformation of the economy as envisaged in the Financial Sector Blue Print 2011–20 of BNM. Using the data envelopment analysis technique, the technical efficiency of 19 commercial banks (8 domestic banks and 11 foreign banks) operating in Malaysia during 2005–12 is evaluated. Then, using bootstrap‐corrected efficiency scores, the drivers of bank efficiency were estimated using the Tobit regression approach. Results clearly show that three large domestic banks are not only more efficient than their counterparts, but are also more efficient than the foreign banks. Bank size and return on assets are found to be the significant drivers of technical efficiency of Malaysian banks. Capital adequacy and the advances to deposit ratio also have a role in driving technical efficiency. The results also indicate that banks that are more effective in managing credit risk, as reflected in a lower level of non‐performing assets as a percentage of total assets, and have lower levels of personnel expenses to total assets, are more efficient. The findings have significant implications at the individual bank level and also at the policy level.     

中国外资银行服务贸易自由化的经济影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡SIC-GE模型的定量分析

本文利用2005～2009年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行进入壁垒的实际数据,通过设立银行业收益和成本方程发现并估算出消除壁垒带来的两方面行业直接效应,即外资银行服务价格水平下降1.9%和国内银行业经济效率改进1.8%。在此基础上利用国家信息中心可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)就壁垒消除对整个经济体的影响进行了系统评估。测算结果表明,两个直接效应中,改进国内银行业经济效率的经济影响是主要的;从宏观层面上看,短期内能够带来就业和GDP相对基准情景增长,同时居民消费、投资和出口有所增长。进口随着国内需求的扩张略有增长,净出口明显扩大。总体上,研究结果表明,2005年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行贸易壁垒是一项较为有效的政策举措,具有较好的示范作用。     

Impact of international expansion strategy on the performance of Japanese banks

The effect of cross-border diversification on bank performance is part of the broader debate on how multinational banking and financial integration affect the global financial economy. Previous studies that examined this relationship present mixed results - namely that cross-border diversification improves bank performance but also increases bank risks that could lead to systemic failure. Even so, this line of debate has not been examined in the case of Japanese banks conducting international operations. The present study questions whether cross-border diversification improves the performance of Japanese banks and to what extent each cross-border expansion activity affects bank performance. The latter was largely ignored in previous studies. Our results show that cross-border diversification improves cost efficiency but decreases/harms the profit efficiency of the banks analyzed. In addition, we find that the expansion of foreign assets and foreign branch operations present funding risks and operational inefficiency. We offer two important recommendations. First, as a major player in international lending, the current expansion activities of Japanese banks require close monitoring and supervision to prevent systemic risk resulting from aggressive and risky overseas expansion activities. Second, the current expansion strategies of Japanese banks, especially the expansion of overseas assets and branch operations (retail banking), should be re-examined.     

Competitive Conditions in the Tanzanian Commercial Banking Industry

Abstract: Since 1991, Tanzania has made important improvements in reforming its financial sector, dismantling the state‐dominated banking sector and allowing foreign bank entry. Despite this, the banking industry is still concentrated with low accessibility to financial services. Large foreign banks dominate the financial landscape, preventing competitive dynamism to permeate the sector. This paper analyses the competitive nature of the Tanzanian banking industry from 2004 to 2008. Utilizing a rich bank level data set, we employ the Panzar–Rosse methodology to compute the competitive index, taking into account risk, efficiency, regulatory and macroeconomic factors. The results show that banks in Tanzania earned their income under conditions of oligopolistic conduct. Moreover, the competitive index derived from an interest revenue equation was not significantly different from that obtained using an aggregate revenue measure. This suggests that the degree of contestability from traditional intermediation activities approximates overall bank behaviour. The overall message is that greater market contestability can be achieved by adopting measures aimed at stimulating competitiveness in the banking sector, including consolidating gains on the macroeconomic front and allowing more foreign bank entry so as to increase the spread of banking services.     

外国所有权与银行治理演化

从银行公司治理的特征出发,探讨了外国所有权与国内银行治理制度演化的关系。结果表明,控股股东与非控股大股东之间的有效制衡关系是实现银行治理效率的最优安排;只要外国所有权的制度质量高,并且持股数量达到一定的比例,可以实现国内商业银行治理机制向国际先进的治理制度演化。为此,监管当局应增加外国股权投资者的制度质量评估,适当提高持股比例、延长持股年限,促使战略投资者与国内银行形成紧密的战略合作关系。     

我国商业银行开展投资银行业务的模式设计

混业经营的外资银行全面进入中国,将对国内银行形成巨大挑战。本文结合理论与国内实际情况,论述了我国商业银行开展投资银行的必要性。在对西方商业银行从事投资银行业务模式进行比较研究的基础上,根据我国目前的实际运行模式及其将来的发展要求,提出我国商业银行从事投资银行业务未来的主流目标模式。     

The foreign exchange exposure of Chinese banks

Using the capital market approach and the equity price data of 14 listed Chinese banks, this empirical study finds that there is a positive relationship between bank size and foreign exchange exposure. This relationship may reflect the larger foreign exchange operations and trading positions of larger Chinese banks and their significant indirect foreign exchange exposure arising from impacts of the renminbi exchange rate movements on their customers. Empirical evidence also suggests that the average foreign exchange exposures of state-owned and joint-stock commercial banks in China are higher than those of banks in Hong Kong, notwithstanding their limited participation in international banking businesses compared with their Hong Kong counterparts. It is also found that negative foreign exchange exposure is prevalent for larger Chinese banks, suggesting that an appreciation of the renminbi tends to reduce their equity value. It is therefore likely that the banking sector's performance will be hampered. Together with the fact that decreases in equity values generally imply a higher default risk, the effects of different scenarios of renminbi appreciation on the default risk of Chinese banks should therefore be closely monitored.     

Impact of the Emerging Financial Holding Company Model on Small Business Borrowers' Financial Welfare: Contemporary Evidence from Nigeria Based on the Monti‐Klein Approach

This study exploits the adequacy of the Monti‐Klein model to analyse the banking firms' lending behaviour and uses the geometric lag analytic model to detect the lifespan of bank conglomeration impacts on small business financial welfare. We find that, although the impact of emerging conglomerate banks on lending to small businesses is significantly negative (δ = ?0.6897; p < 0.01), the effect reverses to a pre‐conglomerate positive status within one year. Hence, bank conglomeration does not negatively affect the financial welfare of small business borrowers in the long run. Contrary to the widespread belief and fear, the negative effects are not permanent. Large banks are feared to have no time for mid‐sized businesses. We find, however, that mere increases in size, as may be caused by economic or internal growth, do not pose a threat to small businesses. Large‐sized banking firms positively and significantly correlate with small and predictable risks (δ = 1.7935; p < 0.01). Hence, contrary to what regulators fear, there is no real issue surrounding the idea that building diversifying banks will influence small business loans negatively. What matters is the means through which large banks emerge. Therefore, regulators ought to exercise caution so that they do not discourage their emergence.     

外资银行进入对我国银行业竞争格局的影响

本文以波特的"五力"模型为分析工具,力图分析外资银行进入对我国银行业竞争格局的影响,认为国内银行业在中国加入WTO之后面临着外资银行进入的竞争挑战。因此,国内银行业要实施创新,提高创新能力,从而提高竞争力。     

Competitiveness and Efficiency of the Banking Sector and Economic Growth in Egypt

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of financial reforms on competitiveness and production efficiency of the banking sector, as well as the short‐term and long‐term impact on economic growth, in Egypt during 1992–2007. The results suggest that the reforms have a positive and significant effect on competitiveness and production efficiency. Also, the evidence shows that state‐owned banks are generally less competitive than private banks and foreign banks are less competitive than domestic banks. The average x‐inefficiency of Egyptian banks is around 30 per cent, which is comparable to those reported for other African countries. Finally, there is evidence to suggest a significant relationship between financial bank productive efficiency and economic growth in the short run but not in the long run. Overall, the results support the argument for continuing the financial sector reform programme in Egypt.     

Risk preference and efficiency in Chinese banking

This paper aims to measure banking efficiency by considering risk preferences in 49 Chinese commercial banks during the period of 2004–2012. It adopts a method which allows for endogenous classification of three risk preferences, namely the conservative, moderate and aggressive risk modes, by changing direction vectors. Banking efficiency is measured on the basis of optimal risk preference. The findings show that the moderate risk preference is the most appropriate strategy to achieve technical efficiency in the Chinese banking sector. However, the aggressive risk preference involving low risk costs, compulsory credit spreads and scale expansion played a critical role in promoting the development of Chinese banking sector, but its effect decreased rapidly. The findings also imply that the average technical efficiency scores of joint stock commercial banks and city commercial banks were higher than those of state-owned commercial banks under the optimal risk preference, and that the measured efficiency mainly shows a trend of improvement over time.     

Financial Liberalization and Foreign Bank Entry on the Domestic Banking Performance in MENA Countries

Abstract: This study examines the impact of financial liberalization and foreign bank entry on the domestic banking sector from 1996 to 2007, and builds upon and expands the work of Lee (2002). We find that foreign bank entry, financial liberalization, ownership structure and degree of openness of foreign bank entry positively impact domestic banking system operating efficiency, capitalization, risk management, long‐term soundness, financial performance as well as economic and financial development. However, foreign bank entry is associated with reduced profit margins and increased operating costs of domestic banks in countries with less developed capital markets. Empirical evidence seems to support the argument that foreign bank presence leads to better allocation of capital and eliminates connected lending practices.     

外资银行进入对信贷资源配置的影响——以新欧盟成员国为例

本文从信贷规模、信贷结构变化两方面分析了外资银行进入新欧盟成员国后,大大提高了东道国的信贷资源供给,使得东道国信贷规模扩大;随着外资银行对东道国渗透程度的增加,其业务重点将逐渐从对优质客户资源的争夺转为向中小企业拓展信贷业务。随着信贷评估制度和技术的改善,家庭部门信贷比例也不断上升。外资银行进入对提高东道国信贷资源配置效率有着重大意义。