Dynamic models of the labor force behavior of married women which can be estimated using limited amounts of past information

This paper examines the extent of the inadequacy of standard cross-sectional models of US labor force behavior and considers the abilities of alternative models to capture the observed continuity in the hours of work and earnings of individuals as well as in their employment histories. Both of the alternatives to the standard cross-sectional model considered in this study incorporate limited amounts of information about past work behavior that could easily be collected as part of a national population census. Using a population of 21 to 64 year old married working women taken from a 1969 through 1978 Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the variables included in the Z vector age: 1) age of the wife; 2) education of the wife; 3) state average hourly wage in manufacturing measured in 1967 dollars; and 4) unemployment rate for the state in which the wife lives. Results show that by using information about a women's hours of work and wage rate in the previous year, it may be feasible to improve on forecasts of a woman's employment and earnings behavior. For each model a separate estimate is made for wives aged 21 through 46, and for those aged 47 through 64. The dummy and difference models perform much better than the standard model, with the dummy model having the higher pseudo-chi-square statistic. These models show that systematic errors made in determining which individuals work, what they earn per hour, or how many hours they work, should result in prediction errors of the same sort year after year in the computation of annual earnings. These findings with respect to years of work and nonwork, years of part time versus full time work, and cumulative earnings over a 10 year period, confirm and extend Heckman's findings; thus, forecasting models of the work behavior of individuals should not be estimated using pure cross-sectional data. It would be important if researchers could identify what observable factors, if any, increase the likelihood that wives will alter their work behavior from what it has been in the immediate past, even if they are not able to fully understand or explain this previous work behavior.     

Consequences of self-employment for women and men in the United States

Many self-employed workers return to the wage and salaried sector of the labor market after some time. It is possible that the self-employment spell will lead to lower earnings or earnings growth upon return, due to depreciation of firm or sector-specific human capital. Using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women (NLS), this paper examines the effects of spells of self-employment on the future wage and salary sector earnings of male and female workers in the United States. The results indicate substantial penalties arise for women, in terms of returns to experience, while there is little or no impact for men.     

Woman's work: Seeking identity through occupations

Most adult women now hold full-time jobs outside the home, and the proportion is growing. While women's labor market experiences and successes have come closer to men's experiences and successes, their attachment to a labor market career, at least for married women, is not the compulsion that it is and has been for men. While many women have won the right to go off to the corporate citadel every morning, they have more often than not retained the obligation to bear most of the responsebility for the home. Ideally, postfeminist women woumen would like to be able to strike a balance between the responsibilities of the job and home. In reality, they are forced to choose between the two. Women have a right to seek identity through work as well as through parenthood-as men have always done. Those few women who insist on the right to meaningful work and the right to a family will have to push for changes in the work place as hard as they had to push to gain admittance to the jobs in the first place.     

The part-time pay penalty in a segmented labor market

This paper is the first to examine the implications of switching to PT work for women's subsequent earnings trajectories, distinguishing by their type of contract: permanent or fixed-term. Using a rich longitudinal Spanish data set from Social Security records of over 76,000 prime-aged women strongly attached to the Spanish labor market, we find that the PT/FT hourly wage differential is larger and more persistent among fixed-term contract workers, strengthening the existent evidence that these workers can be classified as secondary. The paper discusses problems arising in empirical estimation (including a problem not discussed in the literature up to now: the differential measurement error of the LHS variable by PT status), and how to address them. It concludes with policy implications relevant for Continental Europe and its dual structure of employment protection.     

Can educational expansion improve income inequality? Evidences from the CHNS 1997 and 2006 data

Rapid education expansion and rising income inequality are two striking phenomena occurring in China during the transitional period. Using the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data collected in 1997 and 2006, this paper studies how education affects individual earnings during the transitional process. We find that education accounts for only a small fraction of the personal earnings and income gap between different groups. We analyze the underlying mechanism of the impact of education on earning. More educated people tend to enter state-owned sectors, have a low probability of changing jobs in the labor market and work less time; all of these will have a pronounced impact on earning and income inequality. Quantile regression analysis shows that the low-income group's education return rate is lower, which helps little in narrowing the income gap. We decompose the earning gap into four factors: population effect, price effect, labor choice effect and unobservable effect. In explaining the earning gap in China, the price effect is more important than the population effect. The labor choice effect is also significant. We conclude that increasing educational expenditure with no complementary measures such as reforming the education system and establishing a competitive labor market helps less in reducing income inequality.     

Tariff-tax reform and exchange rate dynamics in a monetary economy

Using a dynamic monetary model, this paper analyzes the short- and long-run impacts of a tariff-tax reform on the economy, with attention being paid to short-run fluctuations in exchange rates. When a policy reform is announced and if the public believe that it will decrease excess demand, the domestic currency depreciates now to reflect its future depreciation. On the contrary, the domestic currency immediately appreciates if the public believe that it will increase excess demand. However, if there is a relatively small increase in excess demand, the public may mis-react in the exchange rate market by observing currency depreciation first and then appreciation toward the steady-state rate.     

The status of academic women in the 1990s No longer outsiders, but not yet equals

This paper reexamines the status of women in the academic labor market relative to men to determine how much progress has been made in achieving equity. Two questions will be addressed here: (1) do men and women have equal access to faculty employment in higher education, and (2) are they equally successful with regard to traditional career goals and compensation? Analyses are conducted on the educational attainment of women, their representation among faculty, their time allocation and research productivity, and their success in academia as represented by their rank attainment and earnings. While the results show that women have made considerable strides in entering the academic labor market, there is still an unexplained gap between men and women in terms of their earnings and career progression.     

Time costs,aspirations and the effect of economic growth on German fertility

Recent research has shown strong support for the model of reproductive behavior derived from the new home economics, and it is shown in this discussion that the evidence from the Federal Republic of Germany is consistent with the new home economics model. There is little support for Easterlin's relative economic hypothesis, but there is limited endorsement for model which adds the influence of experience based material aspirations to the new home economics model. Easterlin's relative income model is reviewed before directing attention to the new home economics model and an explanation of fertility movements in West Germany. The new home economics model focuses on the family division of labor between home activities and work outside the home. The marked decline in German fertility during the 1970s is mostly attributable to factors such as expanding women's earning capacities which increased the importance of 2 earner families, who have a different family division of labor and possibly preferences biased towards "quality" of children rather than numbers. Also, real wage growth lagged behind the growth in experience based aspirations, and this drop in relative income is more dramatic if it is presumed that material aspirations are based upon the family's income experienced by a young adult during his/her adolescence, rather than just the father's earnings. The mother's contribution to family income will contribute to her family's actual standard of living and the desired standard of living of her children. The labor force participation rates of married, middle-aged German women increased markedly during the 1st half of the 1950s, thus tending to enhance the increase in the standard of living desired by the young adults reaching marrying and childbearing ages in the mid-1960s. The analysis indicates that if there is not a substantial reduction in the proportion of young married women in the labor force, fertility will move countercyclically. In that there must be some floor to fertility, one should be cautious of using these parameter estimates considerably outside the 1950-1977 period. Nonetheless, the estimates indicate that economic growth will not bring a substantial rise in German fertility, and, outside the unlikely situation of sustained economic decline, fertility will remain low.     

Early labor market outcomes of university graduates: Does time to degree matter?

Using university administrative and survey data drawn from the AlmaLaurea Consortium, we analyze the effect of time to degree on the early labor market performance of Italian graduates. The empirical strategy allows identifying separately the impact of elapsed time to degree on the transition from university to work and on earnings from other determinants specific to the academic path completed. Findings suggest that delayed graduation reduces the employment probability (0.8% points for each year of delay), and this effect is still persistent five years after graduation. Once employed, graduates not completing their degree within the minimum period are also penalized in their net monthly earnings, even five years after graduation. The most penalized groups are women and graduates in non-scientific fields.     

固定资产折旧及其政策选择

折旧作为再生产过程中的经济现象,其本质属性是固定资产损耗价值的周转过程,包括固定资产价值的损耗、转移和补偿。在此理论基础上,企业折旧政策的选择应该是既能考虑补偿损耗、企业扩张和纳税延期的要求,又能满足维护和提高企业的市场价值的要求。折旧政策选择可采用以下策略,即企业盈利水平不断提高时,可以选择长时间慢速折旧和长时间平均折旧;企业盈利水平呈下降趋势或先高后低时,则可以选择短时间快速折旧和长时间快速折旧。     

Working while enrolled in a university: does it pay?

This study examines how university students' employment decisions affect their labor market success after graduation. The study is based on individual level panel data of Finnish university students from the years 1987–1998. The OLS estimates show that in-school work experience is associated with higher earnings and employment after graduation. However, work months during the enrollment are not exogenously chosen. Average local unemployment rate during enrollment is used as an instrument for work experience acquisition to correct for the endogeneity bias. Comparing graduates with equal times-to-degree, the IV estimates show that work experience increases earnings considerably one year after graduation. The effect is smaller and statistically insignificant in later years. Taking into account that working usually leads to longer times-to-degree, IV estimates show no significant returns to student employment.     

Protecting Family and Race

A bstract    American economics came of age during the Progressive Era, a time when biological approaches to economic reform were at their high-water mark. Reform-minded economists argued that the labor force should be rid of unfit workers—whom they labeled "unemployables,""parasites," and the "industrial residuum"—so as to uplift superior, deserving workers. Women were also frequently classified as unemployable. Leading progressives, including women at the forefront of labor reform, justified exclusionary labor legislation for women on grounds that it would (1) protect the biologically weaker sex from the hazards of market work; (2) protect working women from the temptation of prostitution; (3) protect male heads of household from the economic competition of women; and (4) ensure that women could better carry out their eugenic duties as "mothers of the race." What united these heterogeneous rationales was the reformers' aim of discouraging women's labor-force participation.     

Gender Differences in the Effect of Education on the Slope of Experience-Earnings Profiles

A bstract . TWO earnings models are estimated for men and women of the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Youth (1979 to 1988). Model 1 (a standard human capital equation) indicates women receive a relatively higher earnings effect from another year of education and week of work, suggesting that narrowing of the wage gap can occur through increasing these. However, increases in female education of over 20%, or increases in weeks worked of over 100% are needed to bring female earnings to the level of white males. Model 2, which includes the interaction between education and work experience, shows that more educated men have steeper experience-earnings profiles while more educated women do not. This finding indicates different earnings growth patterns among similarly skilled and market attached men and women. Results imply that increasing female skills and work effort alone are insufficient in obtaining more equitable market outcomes and that the continuation of affirmative action policies are needed to achieve this goal.     

Fertility and the human capital loss of non-participation

Female earnings function parameters are estimated jointly with interruption incidence and fertility decisions. We pay particular attention to the return to experience and the human capital loss parameter when women are allowed to self-select into various possible combinations of interruption and fertility outcomes. We find that ignoring endogenous fertility decisions may seriously bias the effect of non-employment spell lengths on female earnings, as well as the return to experience. To a large extent, the negative relationship between female earnings and non-employment spell length, that is widely documented in the earlier literature, is the result of a misspecification of the earnings functions.     

East–West migration and gender: Is there a differential effect for migrant women?

This paper examines whether female East–West migrants in Germany face a differential effect on their labor market outcomes after they move compared to both males and stayers. It builds on a “difference-in-difference-in-difference” approach, employs a matching procedure to define the corresponding before and after periods for movers and stayers and uses panel data techniques to difference away time-invariant unobservable confounders. I find that migrant women after migration do not experience significantly different earnings or employment prospects, compared to migrant males and female stayers. They do, however, face an additional negative effect on hours worked and on annual income. The results also suggest that for them, the income effect seems to dominate the substitution effect and they substitute some market work in the West with home production, in particular, with childcare.     

Capitalization of Costs and Expected Earnings Growth

Abstract

This paper offers a model that shows how the capitalization of costs affects contemporaneous earnings and the growth path of expected earnings. It makes three points. First, reported earnings under successful efforts are more price relevant than earnings under full costing or full expensing. Second, whether conditional or unconditional, conservatism always enhances the growth rate of expected earnings. Third, independent of capitalization policy, the long-run expected earnings growth rate converges either to the long-run expected free cash flow growth rate or to the depreciation rate. Therefore, while capitalization policy affects the price relevance of earnings and short-run expected earnings growth, it does not affect long-run expected earnings growth.     

Cross-sectional earnings risk and occupational sorting: The role of risk attitudes

This paper investigates to what extent individuals' risk preferences are correlated with the cross-sectional earnings risk of their occupation. We exploit data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, which contains a direct survey question about willingness to take risks that has been shown to be a behaviorally valid measure of risk aversion. As a measure of earnings risk, we use the cross-sectional variation in earnings that is left unexplained by human capital variables in Mincerian wage regressions. Our evidence shows that individuals with low willingness to take risks are more likely to work in occupations with low earnings risk. This pattern is found regardless of the level of occupation categories, region, gender and labor market experience.     

Parenthood and the earnings of married men and women

We use longitudinal data to examine the relationship between parenthood, wages, and hours worked for married men and women. We find evidence of negative selection into parenthood, substantial child-related reallocations of time within the household, and heterogeneity in the effects of children on household behavior. In households in which the wife experiences an interruption in employment, mothers' wages and hours worked fall, while fathers' hours and wages increase. In households in which the mother remains continuously attached to the labor force, however, there is no evidence of a wage decline for mothers, and the hours worked by fathers decrease substantially.     

Joint estimation of sequential labor force participation and fertility decisions using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques

We analyze the effect of children on the labor supply of married women in a framework that accounts for the endogeneity of labor market and fertility decisions, for the heterogeneity of the effects of children and their correlation with the fertility decisions, and for the correlation of sequential labor market decisions. Women with stronger propensity for market work have fewer children, work more before the first birth, and face larger negative effects of children. The total effect of a child remains considerable long after birth; prior birth-related reductions in labor supply account for a significant share of the total effect.     

Work out or out of work — The labor market return to physical fitness and leisure sports activities

This study is the first to present evidence of the return to leisure sports in the job hiring process by sending fictitious applications to real job openings in the Swedish labor market. In the field experiment job applicants were randomly given different information about their type and level of leisure sports. Applicants who signaled sports skills had a significantly higher callback rate of about 2 percentage points, and this effect was about twice as large for physically demanding occupations.Additional evidence of a sports premium in the regular labor market is arrived at when analyzing the long-run impact of physical fitness on later labor market outcomes. The analysis uses register data on adult earnings and physical fitness when enlisting at age 18. The fitness premium, net of unobservable family variables, is in the order of 4-5%, but diminishes to 2% when controlling for non-cognitive skills.