Telecommunications services and economic growth: Evidence from India

This paper estimates the growth contributions of telecom services by public and private sectors and distinguishes it from the information technology services. Socio-economic determinants of demand for telecom services are estimated for fixed and mobile phones in the framework of a Logit model and using data from a small-household sample survey in India. Estimation results show a significant negative impact of price and a positive impact of income variables; distinguish the importance of social caste, education level, nature of occupation, age of household head and family size between fixed and mobiles phones and offer evidence for substitutability of mobile phones for fixed phones. These results add to the empirical knowledge of socio-economic determinants of telecom demand and have implications for selective design of policies towards promotion of higher demand and attainment of higher economic growth by fixed and mobile services in India and other developing countries.     

Moving targets: Introducing mobility into universal service obligations

Structural changes in the economies of developing countries are leading to increased mobility of work and family life, and so an accommodating set of universal service obligations (USOs) implies new goals that extend beyond wireline telephone penetration and access. Wireless telephony penetration frequently exceeds wireline penetration in developing countries, and digital wireless platforms can incorporate Internet technology. This paper evaluates the history of telecom development in Mexico that has led to wireless telephony becoming the new consumption norm. The study takes the eMexico project as a case study of diversified USOs beyond wireline telephony. It considers potential obstacles to incorporating mobile phone and Internet (“Wireless Web”) services into Mexico's diversified universal service policy, including economic barriers to political mobilization over issues of telecom policy.     

Quality-adjusted international price comparisons of mobile telecommunications services

Many countries' policymakers have conducted international price comparisons of mobile telecommunications services to prevent service operators from overcharging subscribers. However, those comparisons have become more complicated because of the escalation in service usage and telecommunications expenditures spurred by the proliferation of smartphones and broadband LTE wireless internet service networks. The basket-based methodologies that have been widely used for international price comparisons are also limited—first, because the baskets for comparison may not be representative of actual service usage patterns in some countries; second, because they are difficult to apply to highly differentiated service plans due to the significant increase in wireless internet service usage and widely used plans with unlimited voice call service and SMS/MMS; and third, because they cannot consider the quality of service, such as upload and download speed in various service environments, at all. As an alternative, this paper proposes a hedonic pricing model that accounts for service quality and its variation in potentially disruptive environments, as well as fixed charge for a mobile phone additional to the price of service plans. The model was used to derive quality-adjusted price indices of mobile telecommunications services for twelve cities in ten countries with broadband LTE wireless internet service. The empirical results confirmed that the price index of each city varied significantly across the specifications,—both within the United States and internationally—depending on whether the model was constructed to reflect service quality and its variation on roads, in buildings, and in subways. The price index of each city also varied depending on whether the subsidized price of a mobile phone was considered part of the monthly price of a service plan. These results have important implications for policymakers seeking to understand the ultimate level of mobile telecommunication service prices for their country in a global context.     

Technical innovation and 3.5 mobile phone generation: Lessons from Korea

In 1996, the Korean mobile communication market was the first in the world to commercialize the code division multiple access (CDMA). Since then, the voice-based mobile phone market has continued to grow and has now reached near saturation. Having recognized the potential of the mobile data service as a new source of profit, telecommunication operators are scrambling to evolve 3.5 generation (3.5G) technology in order to lead market competition. Recently, the Korean 3.5G mobile telecom market has faced stiff competition from CDMA-based EVDO Rev.A and global system for mobile telecommunications (GSM)-based high-speed downlink packet access (HSDPA). In addition, the world's first wireless LAN-based wireless broadband internet (WiBro) service was commercialized in June, 2006. This paper reviews the current status of the 3.5G technology and analyzes the service standardization strategies from the viewpoint of technological evolutions. This paper also suggests implications for Korea's specific circumstances where different mobile telecom technologies complement and compete with one another. Korea's experiences may serve as important lessons for other countries or operators who try to introduce the 3G and look beyond mobile telecom technologies.     

Competition reform and household welfare: A microsimulation analysis of the telecommunication sector in Ethiopia

This paper presents a novel simulation method for estimating the likely welfare effects of policy reforms aimed at increasing competition in strategic economic sectors such as mobile phone services. The proposed method relies on a partial equilibrium simulation approach and estimates the welfare impacts on current consumers and the potential welfare effects among new consumers brought into the market by changes in prices due to competition. This approach is applied to the information and communication technology (ICT) sector in Ethiopia, one of the three countries in the world with a monopoly in the market for mobile phone services. Based on household budget survey data for 2015/16 and departing from a baseline reform scenario that dilutes the market share of the state-owned monopoly to 45 percent, the simulation model estimates a 25.3 percent reduction in the price of mobile services and an increase in 5.7 million new users of mobile services. The predicted drop in prices and increased users would generate a combined relative welfare gain of 1.18 percent (1.09 percent among current users and 0.09 percent among new users), that could be translated into a 0.31 percentage point decline in the national poverty rate and equivalent to lifting about 275,000 people out of poverty. Alternative reform scenarios that dilute the market share of the monopoly to 75 percent and to 30 percent are expected to reduce poverty rate in 0.13 and 0.52 percentage points, respectively. The method proposed in this study represents a useful tool for promoting competition reforms in developing countries, particularly in sectors known for excluding significant segments of the population because of high consumer prices.     

Broadband expectations and the convergence of ranks

Broadband Internet service to widely held to be a significant contributor to economic development and global competitiveness, and comparison of adoption rates across countries are common. This paper presents evidence that the relative broadband Internet adoption ranks across the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (“OECD”) countries are converging to the wireline telephone adoption ranks in the mid 1990s. This was a time when wireline telephone service had reached maturity, but before consumers began to abandon traditional telephone services for mobile services and Internet telephone technologies. As such, in the absence of better data on household adoption, wireline telephone rank is a useful proxy for a country's ultimate fixed-line broadband penetration rank. Having such an educated guess available regarding broadband rank should reduce the amount of anxiety over rankings, since similar rankings across the two services implies suitable broadband performance. Large departures, alternately, may be a cause for concern or delight. Like prior analyses, the findings suggest that the adoption of communications services is largely an economic and demographic issue.     

Entering the mobile service market via mobile platforms: Qualcomm's BREW platform and Nokia's Preminet platform

The mobile telecommunication market has evolved from simple voice to multimedia services. In the past, the primary players in mobile services were local operators in different countries; international telecommunication vendors, such as Qualcomm and Nokia, were seldom involved in the mobile service market. In order to enter this market, Qualcomm and Nokia have separately introduced their mobile application platforms, called respectively BREW and Preminet. This paper examines how the two companies attempt to share the mobile service market through their mobile platforms and internationalized business models. This paper also analyzes their mobile platforms’ business models and their strategic implications.     

Are OTT messaging and mobile telecommunication an interrelated market? An empirical analysis

OTT messengers such as Facebook and WhatsApp have gained wide popularity among mobile users while the traffic of text messaging is in strong decline. As such, there is a debate over whether both services are interrelated and constitute a joint product market, which has important implications for the current wave of mergers in the mobile industry and regulation policy. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to provide an empirical analysis of how the consumption of OTT messengers affects demand for text messaging and mobile voice services. We make use of an innovative dataset which includes very detailed information on smartphone usage in Norway and consider a novel approach to address this question which is embedded in the complexity of two-sided markets. Interestingly, our findings suggest that OTT messengers complement demand for traditional mobile telecommunication services for this context. Consequently, both markets are interrelated but do not constitute a joint market from the perspective of competition policy in Norway. Moreover, we find an explanation for why reductions of text messaging usage have been so drastic in some countries and an analogous development for mobile voice is rather unlikely. Finally, our empirical results provide a new perspective on the modelling of consumer utility in communication networks in the theoretical literature.     

The transformation of the mobile telecommunications industry in Pakistan: A developing country perspective

This paper offers a rare insight into the reality of the mobile telecommunications market transformation in Pakistan. Our analytical framework treats the mobile telecommunications market as a complex socio-technical system. Specifically, we define the telecommunications market as being composed of technology standards and three sets of social actors that include government institutions, network and service providers, and users. In the case of Pakistan, these social actors together determine the adoption of standards and services, and thus shape the trajectory of the market change. Our case study provides evidence that a pro-competition policy is imperative for mobile telecommunications development in developing countries, and an independent regulator is critical in promoting technological innovation.     

Economic analysis of the introduction of the MVNO system and its major implications for optimal policy decisions in Korea

This study analyzes the anticipated economic effects arising from the introduction of the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) system in the mobile communications service market. For the analysis, actual data (or estimated data)—such as price elasticity, the number of subscribers, traffic volume, rate, and access charge—were combined with an assumption about a competition scenario in the future market. Based on this analysis, consumer surplus, and change in the service provider's profits were estimated according to the type of policy that may be adopted for the MVNO system by the regulator. The results of the analysis indicate that consumer surplus appears to increase largely because of the reduction of the mobile service rate by the promotion of “service-based competition,” which occurs upon adoption of an MVNO policy in the mobile communication service market. Moreover, the introduction of an MVNO system into the mobile communication market seems to be socially beneficial regardless of policy type if access charges are set reasonably by a cost-plus or retail-minus method. In particular, in order to make sense of the introduction of a special MVNO, whether by the cost-plus method or the retail-minus method, the correct discount rate must be used in setting an access charge between the special MVNO and the significant market power (SMP) mobile network operator (MNO).     

Estimating consumer surplus in the mobile telecommunications market: The case of Korea

This paper estimates consumer surplus in the Korean mobile telephone services (MTS) market. The Korean mobile telecommunications market has grown rapidly since 1997 when competition was introduced and Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology was commercialized. Because consumer surplus is relevant to the controversy over establishing an appropriate price level between consumers and service providers, the need for a robust measurement of benefit from MTS is increasing. The measured net consumer surplus estimated by means of elasticities of demand reached about US$48.8 billion in the period 1996–2004 and the changes amounted to about US$8.8 billion during the same period. In particular, after competition was introduced into the market with an accompanying price decrease and increase in the number of subscribers, consumers have benefited greatly. Therefore, it can be inferred that a facility-based competition policy and the reduction in price of access such as handset subsidies all played a positive role in the early diffusion of MTS in Korea. The estimated consumer surplus in this paper does not include network externality (option externality); if this were considered, the total social welfare of the consumer would be larger.     

Intra-LATA toll elasticities

Regulatory commission hearings on intra-LATA toll competition have focused, for the purpose of revenue rebalancing, on the market elasticity of demand for intra-LATA toll service. This paper presents estimates of the intra-LATA toll elasticity based on a detailed model of residential customers' demand for short-haul service. The results are compared with those from other studies. The consensus of the studies indicates a residential elasticity of around -0.4.     

Whose call is it? Targeting universal service programs to low-income households’ telecommunications preferences

Do universal service programs give customers what they want? This paper uses new survey data to study low-income households’ telecommunications choices in the United States and to consider the degree to which such households’ preferences are addressed by existing universal service programs. The research shows that households that choose only one form of telecommunications increasingly are choosing a mobile phone, while those that choose to have both modes of communications are shifting their usage towards their mobile phones. These trends are less pronounced among higher-income households. One implication for universal service policy is that traditional subsidies for landline phones are increasingly ineffective in reaching low-income households such subsidies are designed to help; subsidies for acquiring and using mobile phone services might be more beneficial to low-income households than traditional subsidies for landline phones.     

Price elasticity of demand for broadband: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

In this study the authors analyze fixed broadband retail prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and provide estimates about the effect of price changes on broadband adoption. The analysis is based on a survey of plans and tariffs conducted by the authors during Q2 2010. Their results suggest that fixed broadband services in LAC are generally expensive and of poor quality when benchmarked against Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, although there is significant variance between markets in the region. In order to isolate the effect of prices on broadband adoption they use an instrumental-variable approach. Their findings show that broadband demand is relatively elastic to price in LAC but not in the OECD. They estimate that an average price reduction of 10% would result in an increase of almost 22% in the penetration rate in LAC, equivalent to almost 8.5 million additional broadband connections. Several policy implications result from these findings. First, national broadband policies in LAC should pay a closer attention to a deficit of competition in fixed broadband services, as households and firms face high prices for poor quality services, thus deterring adoption. Second, while their findings generally suggest that price reductions could significantly increase penetration, they elasticity estimates reveal that price effects might not be sufficient to achieve the penetration goals set in national broadband plans. This validates the need for complementary policy strategies that affect other determinants of broadband demand. The example of Brazil is used to illustrate this finding.     

Competition in Turkish mobile telecommunications markets: Price elasticities and network substitution

This paper estimates demand elasticities for Turkish mobile telecommunications markets. In contrast to most other studies, firm-level data is used to estimate dynamic panel data models including instrumental variable techniques. Both short- and long-run elasticities are calculated, yielding a long-run price elasticity of −0.72 for the post-paid market and of −0.33 for the pre-paid market. The short-run price elasticity is estimated to be −0.36 for the post-paid market and −0.20 for the pre-paid market. In addition, there is evidence of fixed-to-mobile traffic substitution for consumers who use pre-paid cards.     

Quantifying price-driven wireless substitution in telephony

For the better part of a decade, a non-trivial and steadily increasing share of households in the United States has come to rely exclusively on wireless technology for their voice communications needs. Aggregate data show clearly (1) that the share of wireless-only households has risen steadily in recent years; while (2) the price of wireless service has fallen substantially relative to traditional landline service. The aggregate data are therefore consistent with the hypothesis that wireless/wireline cross-price elasticities are positive and economically significant. However, econometric corroboration of this conjecture has proven elusive in the existing empirical literature, which has relied on datasets compiled at the turn of the millennium, when wireless substitution was very limited. Partly in response to this dearth of econometric evidence, regulators and competition authorities in the US have generally been reluctant to conclude that wireless voice service represents a meaningful economic substitute for traditional wireline telephony. In the absence of reliable econometric estimates, even the sign of the relevant cross-price elasticities is an open question: The majority of US households maintain both a landline and at least one wireless connection, so it is unclear, ex ante, whether the two services are substitutes or complements. Thus, it is critical to identify consumer behavior at the margin. Using state-level panel data from a relatively recent time period (2001-2007), this study develops and estimates a demand system that permits evaluation of the own-price, cross-price, and income elasticities of demand for wireless and wireline telephony in the United States. A one percent decrease in the price of wireless service is estimated to decrease the demand for fixed-line service by approximately 1.2-1.3%, and the parameter estimates imply that the Slutsky symmetry holds for the demand system. These results substantially exceed prior econometric estimates from the existing empirical literature, and provide evidence that wireless voice service has evolved into a strong economic substitute for traditional landline service. The parameter estimates from the demand system suggest that roughly two thirds of observed landline attrition in the United States over the sample period is attributable to the observed decline in the relative price of wireless service.     

Mobile targeting in industrial marketing: Connecting with the right businesses

Although the existing literature has acknowledged the importance of mobile marketing, few scholars have examined the efficacy of mobile targeting. This paper contributes to the burgeoning literature on mobile targeting by investigating the effects of customer mobile habits and social capital on firm sales. Leveraging unique customer mobile browsing data from a major telecom service provider in China, we use a Bayesian SEM (structural equation modeling) approach to show that customer mobile habits and social capital exert significant influences on customers' purchase intentions. Specifically, customers who engage in more hedonic mobile behaviors, such as social networking, video browsing, and gaming are associated with a higher probability of purchasing, controlling for the usage of communications apps including messaging and emailing apps, and the usage of functional apps, such as maps, living services, and app market apps. Additionally, our research results reveal a significant positive effect of social capital on firms' sales performance. These findings offer important insights that are often missing from organizational targeting campaign designs in terms of targeting both the right customers and the right business alliance partners and enable a better understanding of managerial and decision-making implications in the context of the B2B market in general.     

Diversification strategies in network-based services: The case of mobile virtual network operators

This paper aims at discussing the entry process and competitive strategies of MVNOs in Italy and France. It illustrates the features of competition in a sector – the mobile telecom service industry – which is characterized by market saturation and demand heterogeneity. In doing so, it looks at the characteristics of the two countries in terms of competition and entry of new operators, at the motivations behind the entry of MVNOs, and at the performance of different companies. Results show that the most successful MVNOs are those characterized by the ability to find a perfect match between their core competencies (large network management, strong brand reputation) and the needs of specific segments of demand that had not been previously fulfilled. In this context, companies with ICT network management skills, whether coming from the telecom sector or from other network-based service industries such as postal operators, have been particularly successful in the market. From a policy perspective, despite the failure of some MVNOs, customers have benefited from the increased competition between MNOs and MVNOs in terms of range of service offerings and prices.