对发展城市业务的几点思考

近几年来，随着农业银行商业化经营的实践，越来越多的事实表明，发展城市业务不但是增强农行经营实力的客观要求，而且也是其求生存、求发展的唯一选择。基层行作为农业银行的经营主体，如何加快发展城市业务，是我们当前必须认真思考和积极探索的问题。     

谈农业银行城区支行如何提高市场竞争力

城市业务是银行最具商业价值和增长潜力的业务，是实现经济价值最大化的重要保障。项俊波董事长2008年5月在首届“陆家嘴论坛”上明确表示“农业银行面向三农，绝不是要削弱或放弃城市的金融业务”，巩固和发展城市金融业务是农业银行实施城乡联动的正确抉择。作为城区支行，如何加快推进业务经营转型，努力提升市场竞争力，成为我们迫切需要去思考和实践的课题。     

用科学发展观推动机构业务快速发展

在农业银行即将实行股份制改革的良好机遇期，机构业务部门学习实践科学发展观，就是要把解放思想与业务经营紧密结合起来，创新发展理念，理清发展思路，破解发展难题，力促发展转型，增强贯彻落实科学发展观的自觉性和坚定性，推动湖北农行机构业务快速健康发展。     

农业银行业务战略转型的策略

业务战略转型问题是农业银行在完善公司治理改革之后面临的又一项重要课题。中国经济的高速发展为农业银行加快业务发展、促进结构调整创造了良好的外部环境,也对农行加快业务转型提出了紧迫要求。当前,战略转型的重点是要由单纯的存贷款业务向多元化、综合化方向发展,突出业务发展重点,促进客户和业务结构优化,提高资源配置效率,提升可持续发展能力。业务战略转型是一项庞大的系统工程,涉及到银行业务经营、管理模式、运行机制、组织体系等经营管理的各个层面。本文紧密联系实际,提出了战略转型的策略措施。     

农业银行业务城市化的难点与对策

本蔗图在分析农业银行拓展城市业务的难点及存因的基础上，提出农业银行进一步推进其业务城市化的市场调整策略和增强城市农行经营活力的建议，以期促进农业银行向现代化商业银行改革的步伐。     

如何强化案件查防工作

当前，农业银行改革和发展进入了关键时期，如何加强案件防范工作，为业务经营健康发展提供安全环境，显得尤为迫切。     

农业银行拓展城市业务的策略选择

随着农业银行商业化改革的不断深入，农业银行的市场定位逐渐转变为调整农村市场，稳定和巩固县级市场，大力拓展大中城市业务市场，努力提高城市业务市场份额。但是，作为长期在县级金融市场从事经营活动的农业银行，要想在金融机构林立、竞争异常激烈的大中城市站稳脚跟并占一席之地，必须进行必要的经营策略调整。     

价值创造与农业银行城市业务转型研究

本文介绍了我国商业银行城市业务转型和价值管理的做法与经验,阐述了围绕价值创造推进农业银行城市业务转型的必要性,并在分析桎梏农行城市业务转型和价值创造能力提升主要原因的基础上,结合价值管理要求和农业银行实际,有针对性地提出围绕价值创造推进农业银行城市业务转型的具体对策,具有现实指导意义。     

关于农业银行发展城市业务问题的探讨

近两年来,工行和建行在农村收缩战线后挺进中心城市,在营业网点上进行相对扩张,在电子业务网络上进行绝对扩张。与此同时,今年国家加快了我国金融改革步伐,加入世贸组织,随着中小金融企业不断做大,银行业在城市的竞争日趋激烈。如何在同业竞争中处于领先地位,是城市农行改革与发展中必须解决的现实问题。一、当前农业银行发展城市业务面临的主要问题(一)对经营城市业务实质性认识不足。金融业在入世5年后进行拆分并实行股份制改造是大方向,如果我们在这几年不把城市业务做强、做大,可能面临拆分后被迫退出城市回归农村局面。(二)信贷管理“…     

经营转型背景下如何增强县域行综合营销能力

县域是城市和农村的结合点,是城乡联动的关节点,更是农业银行拓展蓝海市场的主要阵地,对县域行业务经营起着决定作用。随着改革发展步伐的加快,加快经营战略转型已成为农业银行的迫切需要和必然选择。面对激烈的竞争形势,县域行充分发挥网点、网络优势,强     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.