新形势下地质工作服务领域和方式的若干思考

文章强调 ,在新形势下 ,应从强国富民和实施可持续发展的战略高度充分认识地质工作在国民经济中的重要地位和作用。并对新时期地质工作的服务领域和服务方式作了全面的论述 ,认为地质工作要为国家经济社会发展的宏观决策、为区域经济和地方经济发展、为依法保护矿产资源和规范开发利用的秩序、为促进全球经济一体化提供服务 ;要为市场配置资源的开发和利用提供指导 ;要为工业化进程提供足够的矿产地作为物质保障 ;还要为全社会提供相关的公益信息服务。     

Carbon Sequestration and Conservation of Tropical Forests Under Uncertainty

Concern for global warming has focused attention on the role of tropical forests in the reduction of ambient CO₂ levels and mitigation of climate change. Deforestation is a major land use change in the tropics, with forest resources undergoing degradation through the influence of logging and conversion to other uses. Land use change is a product of varied local and regional resource use policies. Management of forest resources is one such major temporal factor, influencing resource stability and the carbon pool. Under a given management policy, both the long period of forest growth, and the slow turnover and decay of the carbon pool, enhance the relevance of stand level management policies as cost-effective mechanisms mitigating climate change. Apart from regional level uncertainties like the nature of land use and the estimation of carbon storage in vegetation and soil, the carbon flux of tropical forests is greatly influenced by uncertainty in regenerative capacity of forests and in harvest and management policies. A case study from India is used to develop a transition matrix model of natural forest management, and to explore the economic implications of maintaining and expanding existing carbon sinks. The study further explores the significance of investments in additional carbon sinks in plantation forests, given continued uncertainty in natural forest management.     

Prices,policies, and place: What drives greenfield development?

While the recent global financial crisis heightened awareness of the linkages between global financial capital and urban spatial pattern, the timing of urban development – largely thought to be market driven – is not fully understood. Parcel-level studies of urban land-use change, which often use hazard models to investigate if and when development occurs, offer an opportunity to juxtapose the extent to which decisions to develop individual plots of farmland into housing are driven by market forces, the unique characteristics of the land and its intraurban location, or policies such as transportation infrastructure and municipal annexation. Using residential completion data in the Phoenix, Arizona region from 1992 to 2014, a period of dramatic commodity, fuel, and home price swings, and land cover imagery, we develop a parcel-level hazard model to gauge the relative impacts of market, policy, and place-based drivers of land change. We find limited evidence of induced development associated with freeway planning, that annexation and development are closely linked and moreso during economic booms, high fuel prices spur development in the region's core, and agricultural and urban land rents affect the timing of development. This study advances our understanding of development decision- making, policy impacts, and urban land-use change modeling and provides an empirical connection between local and global drivers of Greenfield development.     

Virtual built-up land transfers embodied in China’s interregional trade

China’s vibrant interregional trade has widened the gaps between production and consumption, which transfers the pressure of built-up land resources caused by population expansion and supply/demand imbalances. This study comprehensively analyzes China’s built-up land use issues, considering the complex interregional trading network. Accordingly, the virtual built-up land transfers embodied in China’s interregional trade is illustrated, based on a multi-regional input-output analysis. In China, the national average of virtual built-up land intensity illustrates a downward trend. This demonstrates the effectiveness of the intensive built-up land utilization policies implemented in many parts of the country. Three economic regions of China with the most active trade activities (the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions, and Guangdong Province) have attracted many virtual land flows to relieve the built-up land resource pressures caused by rapid economic development. These flows have mainly derived from neighboring provinces. Considering the detail virtual built-up land transfer profiles embodied in China’s interregional trade, policymakers must collaborate to formulate differentiated policies and optimize built-up land types that combine industrial structure and trade patterns.     

Public policy change and its impact on urban expansion: An evaluation of 265 cities in China

Public policies play a vital role in shaping our cities. However, the impact of public policies on the spatial expansion of urban areas needs to be better understood in order to achieve better policy outcomes. During the period of China’s economic reform, the central government of China has made many changes in three sets of public policies—regional development policies, the household registration (hukou) system, and urban land and housing market policies—to promote coordinated development of small, medium and large cities. This study aims to examine the effects of these public policy changes on urban expansion across 265 Chinese cities at or above prefecture level. We first quantify the spatial patterns of urban areas and evaluate the extent of urban sprawl of the 265 cities from 1995 to 2015 using multi-temporal land cover data. These cities are classified into six categories according to a city tier system used in China. Through a set of individual fixed-effects models, we then explore how changes in the three sets of policies have influenced urban expansion differently across different-tier cities. Results show that sprawling patterns of urban expansion, which have been more prominent in small and medium sized cities since 2000, are associated with shifts in policies to support stronger economic and population growth as well as real estate development. Our findings highlight the need for policymakers to take a holistic approach by considering the size of cities together with their social, environmental, and economic characteristics in order to minimise inequality and achieve coordinated urban development goals.     

China’s megaregion policy: Performance evaluation framework,empirical findings and implications for spatial polycentric governance

Megaregion has emerged as a new dimension of global urbanization. A megaregion approach based on polycentric strategy is deemed to enhance regional economic competitiveness. Numerous studies have highlighted the economic benefits, celebrated the spill-over effects, and outlined the creative potentials of contemporary megaregion policies in different nations worldwide. However, further policy instruments require the knowledge about the achievement and failure of megaregion policies that seek for spatial, economic, social, and environmental efficiency and sustainability. This paper introduces China’s megaregion policy and proposes an analytical framework for performance evaluation from four principle domains (rational urban growth, economic development, social equity, environmental protection) at three levels (internal collaboration, integral development, and overall development). Using a case of the Megaregion around Hangzhou Bay (MAHB), we find very limited success of China’s megaregion policy. In particular, the megaregion policy only accomplishes the economic goal, and fails to achieve the goals of rational urban growth, environmental protection, and social equity. A series of mechanism based regressions are established and show that the implementation duration of megaregion policy: (1) associates positively with the economic growth; (2) relates negatively to social equity and urban rational growth; and (3) has no significant relationship with improved environmental quality. Institutional fragmentation, no unified spatial planning, and inadequate legislation at megaregional level are the underlying causes of the expected performances within the policy context of governance itself. We finally propose some possible solutions and discuss the implications for spatial polycentric governance. The demonstrated methodological framework can be applicable to other megaregions around the world. This paper is thus believed to provide some new insights for land use policy.     

刍议国际碳交易体系对我国的启示及发展趋势

中国是全球第二大温室气体排放国和核证减排量一级市场最大供应国,却处于国际碳交易体系碳价值链的最底端,没有形成像欧盟排放交易机制(EU ETS)那样比较完善的碳交易体系。本研究在介绍国际碳交易体系基础上,结合我国国情,分析得出中国目前尚未具备建立全国性强制型碳交易市场的条件;CDM一级市场严重受制于国际气候政策导向,依托我国已发展的大规模CDM一级市场,培育碳现货市场;针对中国区域经济发展不均衡,优先建立区域性碳交易市场;基于碳现货市场,大力扶持碳衍生产品市场等启示。分析自2013年1月1日生效的《京都议定书》第二承诺期国际气候政策变化,并预测未来国际碳交易市场发展趋势。     

The regional economic effects of a reduction in carbon emissions

Concern about climate change has led to policy to reduce CO₂ emissions although it is likely that policy will have differential regional impacts. While regional impacts will be politically important, very little analysis of them has been carried out. This paper contributes to the analysis of this issue by building a small model involving two regions, incorporating the right to emit CO₂ as a factor of production with the level of permitted emissions set by the national government. We argue that there is likely to be pressure on governments to use other policies to offset the possible adverse regional economic consequences of the pollution‐reduction policy; we also consider a range of such policies. Using numerical simulation, we find that a 10 per cent reduction has relatively small but regionally differentiated economic effects. Standard fiscal policies are generally ineffective or counterproductive while labour market policies are more useful in offsetting the adverse effects.     

Landscape patterns of development under two alternative scenarios: Implications for conservation

The spatial pattern of urban development has important ecological and conservation implications. Urban sprawl, characterized by scattered and low-density urban development, is commonly criticized for its negative ecological impact. In response, growth management policies have been proposed in order to promote compact development, which is generally considered more favorable from an ecological perspective. Spatial simulations of land cover change are useful for comparing urban development scenarios and their potential effects. One aspect that has not received much attention is how the rate of development may affect differences between compact development and urban sprawl in terms of their potential impact to biodiversity conservation at the landscape scale. Our goal in this study was to compare the spatial pattern and landscape-scale conservation and ecological implications of sprawling development (expected under unregulated development) versus compact development (promoted by growth management policies) at different development rates. We focused on Israel's Mediterranean region—a region characterized by high human population density and heterogeneous land cover. Using a cellular automata model, DINAMICA-EGO, we calibrated and validated an urban development model for the period between 1998 and 2007. Using this period as a reference, we simulated two scenarios 20 years into the future: unregulated (resulting in a more sprawling development pattern) versus regulated development (resulting in a more compact development pattern). For each scenario we analyzed a range of development rates, and compared built-up area patterns, and several landscape-level attributes of natural habitats, conservation priority areas, and protected areas. We found that at development rates comparable to those observed during 1998–2007, there was no major difference between the two scenarios. At higher development rates, some differences between the scenarios emerged: natural core areas were more fragmented and smaller in their extent, and a higher proportion of conservation priority areas were expected to undergo development in the unregulated scenario. Overall, the regulated scenario was more favorable for conservation. Since the regulated and unregulated scenarios exhibited only minor differences in lower development rates, modifications to policy measures included in the regulated scenario should be considered in order improve its effectiveness.     

The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture

Despite a significant growth in food production over the past half-century, one of the most important challenges facing society today is how to feed an expected population of some nine billion by the middle of the 20th century. To meet the expected demand for food without significant increases in prices, it has been estimated that we need to produce 70–100 per cent more food, in light of the growing impacts of climate change, concerns over energy security, regional dietary shifts and the Millennium Development target of halving world poverty and hunger by 2015. The goal for the agricultural sector is no longer simply to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, rural development, environmental, social justice and food consumption outcomes. However, there remain significant challenges to developing national and international policies that support the wide emergence of more sustainable forms of land use and efficient agricultural production. The lack of information flow between scientists, practitioners and policy makers is known to exacerbate the difficulties, despite increased emphasis upon evidence-based policy. In this paper, we seek to improve dialogue and understanding between agricultural research and policy by identifying the 100 most important questions for global agriculture. These have been compiled using a horizon-scanning approach with leading experts and representatives of major agricultural organizations worldwide. The aim is to use sound scientific evidence to inform decision making and guide policy makers in the future direction of agricultural research priorities and policy support. If addressed, we anticipate that these questions will have a significant impact on global agricultural practices worldwide, while improving the synergy between agricultural policy, practice and research. This research forms part of the UK Government's Foresight Global Food and Farming Futures project.     

水利资金政策演变与发展趋势研究

水利资金关系我国水利事业发展和水利工程建设运营,水利资金政策则是实现资金规范高效使用与管理的依据和保障。在梳理1980—2020年国家层面关于水利资金政策的基础上,从政策特征、政策主体、政策工具及政策主题多维度运用政策计量方法开展水利资金政策文本分析,探究了我国水利资金政策的全貌及演化规律,找寻新时代水利资金政策的发展趋势。研究发现,政策出台数量与经济社会发展进程相适应,水利现代化改革持续深化;为保证水利资金政策的制定和推行协调顺畅,发文主体以政策网络为主,且逐渐呈现多元化主体共商共治趋势;政策工具以命令控制型为主,相伴导向激励和建议辅助,由单一向组合政策工具转变;政策主题由安全性、保障性的刚性需求转变为整体性、协调性的发展需求。研究结果可为水利资金管理与高效使用提供理论参考。     

Late Industrialization and Structural Change: Indonesia, 1975–2000

This paper examines economic growth and structural change in Indonesia during the period 1975–2000 using an input–output-based structural change decomposition method. The analysis focuses on the sources and pattern of growth during three phases of economic development: the inward-oriented phase from 1975 to 1985; the outward-oriented phase from 1985 to 1995; and the recent phase of crisis and recovery from 1995 to 2000. Growth during the first phase, although impressive, was moderate in comparison with the export-led manufacturing-driven growth during the second phase. During both these phases, the Indonesian economy witnessed significant structural changes, especially within manufacturing. However, the dynamics underlying growth and structural change showed important differences. Although growth under the first two policy regimes was assisted by favourable economic circumstances, selective industrial policies may also have played a significant role. The results suggest that the long neglect of the technological foundations and human capital base of the economy could be holding back recovery and sustained growth in the present phase.     

Afforestation and forestry land allocation in northern Vietnam: Analysing the gap between policy intentions and outcomes

Many tropical countries have recently implemented similar forest policies including large-scale afforestation programmes and the devolution of land-use rights. Their success in enhancing livelihoods and contributing to improved environmental services has been widely questioned. This paper discusses the impacts of state afforestation efforts and forestry land allocation on farmers’ land-use decisions in northern Vietnam. It links policy outcomes with factors located beyond the local level by analysing the decision-making process at the policy implementation stage. Our study suggests that the current national afforestation campaign has not successfully involved households in the forestry sector and that forestry land allocation to households has often disrupted existing land-use systems with little impact on afforestation. These discrepancies between policy intentions and outcomes are partly linked to the relative freedom provinces have to interpret and adapt policies during the implementation stage. In this respect, the political and economic context has played a significant role in providing particular financial and bureaucratic incentives to the former State Forest Enterprises and to civil servants. However, we argue that these actors have been allowed or even encouraged to take advantage of these incentives by national policy-makers thanks to: (1) the lack of clarity or the poor adequacy of the policies designed at the central level, and (2) the blurred character of prevailing national discourses promoting afforestation and community-based forest management. We recommend that national policy-makers allow flexibility in policy implementation but develop mechanisms of accountability and control between the provincial and the central authorities.     

Managing China's pastoral lands: Current problems and future prospects

China has the second largest area of pastoral land in the world, and these lands and their peoples play a very beneficial role in the global environment. Because of China's huge population, rate of social reform, and economic development, the pastoral ecosystems are at a critical turning point. There is a conflict between national benefit and the land users (mainly herders) benefit. This paper introduces the scale of pastoral land, the history of its management institutions, past and current projects and programs, as well as the current framework of policy and law as relevant to land management. The challenges for pastoral management in terms of institutions, administration, technology and their shifting role in regional economies of scale are also analyzed. Opportunities for sustainable development in China's pastoral lands are presented. Finally, this paper highlights the available approaches for enhancing livelihoods and conserving pastoral land, including establishment of law and policy framework at the national level, redefining use rights for community management, promoting Integrated Ecosystem Management (IEM) as a basis for natural resource utilization, preserving and respecting cultural aspects of pastoral peoples, and shifting the focus from GDP generation to environmental protection.     

中国林业建设的理性思考——学习与实践科学发展观笔记

从尊重自然规律和经济规律的视角,对60年来中国林业建设中关注的一些事情,如林业建设方针,生态作用与林业产业发展的关系,资源危机和国有林区管理体制改革等,进行深入的思考、论证,以求找出事情发生深层次的原因,以利于向现代林业建设转变。     

A postmortem of forest policy dynamics of Nepal

Evolution of public policy is governed by various factors of political change, institutional realignment, and global environmental discourse. Improved understanding of these factors is a prerequisite for policy-makers to solve forestry related socio-economic and environmental issues. In this study, we assessed the policy and institutional shifts in Nepal’s forest policy regime through discursive institutionalism framework. We conducted a literature review, including Nepal’s forest policy documents that were developed after 1950, and undertook an in-depth interview with twenty-five people representing five stakeholders groups. Based on specific features and objectives of the policies, we classified and discussed four different evolving periods of forestry sector: (1) strict protection period (1950–1975); (2) resource creation for crisis management period (1975–1986); (3) participatory forestry period (1986–2008); and (4) period of broad-based global normative discourse (2008 onwards). Our results showed that framing of ideas and discourse, and its interacting environment (dialectic space and discursive sphere) have determined institutionalization and deinstitutionalization of the country’s forest policy. In addition, Nepal’s forest policy pathways were shaped by a shift in 1) domestic political systems, 2) global environmental discourse and institution, and 3) the process of paradigmatic change and transformation. We conclude that policy durability and discursive shift in public policy are governed by how policy making-institutions embrace public aspirations and consider socio-political context of the country while framing policy discourse. We argue that articulation of discourses into discursive spheres and its ways of deliberation for discursive practices largely defines the trajectories- institutionalization and deinstitutionalization of public policy.     

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis on land use: The case of Romania

The aim of the present study is to test empirically the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for 42 Romanian counties over the 2000-2014 period. Specifically, we investigate the existence of an inverted U-shaped curve relationship between residential built-up land and economic development in a low-income EU country undergoing rapid and profound transition. We do so by making innovative use of spatial panel econometric techniques. Contrary to our expectations, the results indicate an inverted EKC, implying that higher levels of residential built-up area occur for higher levels of wealth. Moreover, we find that the built-up land in Romania mainly reflects processes of urban expansion, such as sprawl or suburbanization, that may have harmful environmental and social consequences. Spatial spill-overs in terms of built-up land arise and spread, albeit to a limited extent, to neighbouring locations. These findings are of potential significance for policy makers, because they highlight the need for coordination among neighbours. Furthermore, strengthening the institutional framework and local tax management, and planning urban regeneration better could curb and even reverse the extensive built-up land expansion and real estate speculation.     

The Evolution and Implications of the U.S. Food Security Act of 1985

The Food Security Act of 1985 sets the United States (U.S.) policy course for the five years, 1986–1990, in the areas of farm product prices and farmer incomes, agricultural production, food aid, and trade in agricultural products. It is clearly an evolution of past policy, deeply rooted in the institutional processes of participatory policymaking. The Act will have important implications for not only domestic producers, consumers, agribusinesses, and taxpayers, but alto product agricultural exporters and importers around the world. Just as it was substantially, affected by the current loss of export markets and the economic crisis in the U.S. agricultural sector, its implementation and impacts will be affected in the future by the unpredictable weather, macroeconomic conditions around the world, and international trading policies. This article examines the development of the policy embodied in the Act and analyzes its primary economic implications. Although most provisions of the U.S. agricultural price and income policy that had evolved over the past half century were continued, important changes were made. The resulting policy closely mirrored the preferences revealed from research concerning farmers and leaders of national agricultural and food interest groups. Primary changes from the previous 1981 Act were: lengthening the duration to five years; substantial lowering of the minimum price support levels; permitting a gradual decline in the minimum target prices; providing for a whole dairy herd buyout program; establishing export enhancement initiatives through credit, promotion, and export payment-in-kind (PIK); and initiating major efforts to increase farmland conservation and withdrawal of fragile lands from production. Likely implications of the new Act include: (1) lower product prices for agricultural producers around the world, and also farmer incomes if there is no income protection from national policies; (2) a similar but a less proportionate impact on consumers; (3) a substantial burden on the U.S. Treasury, and possibly those of the other nations as well, depending upon the type of policies followed; and (4) likely intensification in the immediate future of the economic conflicts and negotiations between major agricultural trading nations of the world. Research played a vital role in the development of the U.S. 1985 Act. Given the turbulent, uncertain, and important nature of the agricultural and food sector in the world, research is challenged to provide more and better knowledge for future policymaking.     

An assessment of policies affecting Sustainable Soil Management in Europe and selected member states

This paper analyses soils-related policies in Europe and in selected member states and regions. Our approach breaks down policy packages at European, national and regional levels into strategic objectives, operational objectives, policy measures and expected impacts, and assesses the relationships between these elements and soil stakes. Four major policy packages, both at EU and national level (CAP-I, RDP, Environment, national initiatives) were analysed. A numerical scale was developed to quantify the level of “embeddedness” of soil stakes in these policy packages. We found that countries better embed soil stakes into their policies when they also put more efforts on environmental innovation. In turn, countries with a high embeddedness level, with high trust in European institutions and that make more efforts towards renewable energy, tend to propose a wider variety of management practices to farmers for dealing with soil stakes.     

国土空间开发强优势区的理论认知与政策机制设计 ——基于优势区原理的思考

研究目的：从国土空间开发优势区原理出发,探究土地资源空间配置效率改进路径,提出空间治理体系现代化需求下国土空间开发强优势区治理模式的政策机制,为中国国土空间用途管制提供理论依据。研究方法：理论演绎与分析。研究结果：国土空间开发强优势区是对传统经济活动空间分布思想的深化,是集传统经济优势和政策优势为一体的具备区域空间比较（主导）优势的一种空间（经济）单元,表现一种约束和引导土地资源空间格局的专门化配置方案;在传统经济优势空间格局配置的基础上配以差别化政策体系,具有土地资源主体功能分工协作效率的比较优势,具备土地资源空间配置效率改进的时代意义。研究结论：在综合推进区域协调发展、追求高质量发展等国家发展战略理念下,加快国土空间治理体系现代化以形成地域空间经济建设与生态保护的强优势区治理模式,应构建以土地市场机制、政策（政府）调控机制、社群监督机制协同并进的国土空间治理政策（机制）体系。