Inequality and the business cycle: evidence from U.S. survey data

ABSTRACT

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on measures of economic inequality obtained from U.S. survey data. To identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and monetary policy shocks, we estimate vector autoregressions and impose sign and zero restrictions on impulse response functions. We find that the effects of the macroeconomic shocks on inequality depend on the type of shock as well as on the measure of inequality considered. Contractionary monetary policy shocks increase expenditure and consumption inequality, whereas income and earnings inequality are less affected. Adverse aggregate supply and demand shocks increase income and earnings inequality, but reduce expenditure and consumption inequality. Our results suggest that different channels dominate in the transmission of the shocks. The earnings heterogeneity channel is consistent with the inequality dynamics after monetary policy shocks, but it appears to be less crucial when the economy is hit by either aggregate supply or aggregate demand shocks. Using variance decompositions, we find that although the macroeconomic shocks account for large shares of the variation in the macroeconomic variables, their contributions to the dynamics of the inequality measures are limited.     

Monetary policy in search of macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth

The question of the implication of the macroeconomic policy environment for welfare may be an empirical one, and the answer may well differ amongst economies. In this paper, we evaluate the role of monetary policy toward inclusive growth. The evidence from a large sample of countries shows that in both the short and long terms, low inflation and stable economic growth are associated with lower income inequality, improved well-being of the poor and greater inclusion. Both short-term and long-run effects are statistically significant and show that monetary policy that aims at low inflation and stable economic growth is most likely to improve permanently growth inclusiveness and the conditions of the poor. However, in advanced economies where inflation rates are considerably lower, disinflation hurts the poor and equity, ignites greater unemployment cost, and worsens growth inclusiveness. In any case, price and output stability is necessary for greater growth inclusiveness. Thus, the twin objectives of macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth offer no trade-offs.     

Effects of monetary and government spending policy on economic inequality

Using detailed micro-level income and expenditure data, we study the effects of monetary and government spending policy shocks on income and expenditure inequality in the US from 1990 to 2018. We find that expansionary monetary and government spending policy shocks systematically decrease income, disposable income and expenditure inequality. There is evidence of time variation on the effects and monetary policy and transfer payment shocks. Various impulse responses suggest that the impacts of the policy shocks increase during and after the Great Recession. The responses of income and expenditures of households at different percentiles suggest that expansionary monetary and government spending policy have a larger positive impact on households with low income and expenditures relative to those at the top of the distribution. We do not find evidence of the significant impact of Quantitative Easing policies on income inequality, however, expenditure inequality appear to increase due to the policies.     

Taking down the wall: Transition and inequality

In this article, we investigate the main determinants of income inequality in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States during the period 1990–2018. To this end, we address a major methodological challenge that lies at the core of the cross‐country literature on income inequality: the potential endogeneity of income per capita, which is largely ignored by most empirical studies. We adopt a two‐pronged empirical strategy by (1) using trading partners’ weighted average real GDP as an instrumental variable and (2) estimating the model via the two‐stage least squares approach for static models and the generalized method of moments estimator for dynamic models. Our empirical findings are consistent with the Kuznets curve that illustrates a nonlinear relationship between income inequality and the level of economic development. We also find that the redistributive impact of fiscal policy is statistically insignificant and taxation and government spending appear to have the opposing effects on income inequality in transition economies over the sample period.     

The distributive effect of monetary policy: The top one percent makes the difference

The paper evaluates the distributional effect of monetary policy. The empirical analysis is implemented for the USA, where the dynamics in income inequality is mainly driven by the variation in the top one percent of the income distribution. The paper uses the inequality measures that represent the whole income distribution. The distributive effect of monetary policy is evaluated in the cases of different frequency data. To identify a monetary policy shock, the paper applies the contemporaneous and the long run identification methods. In particular, a cointegration relation is determined among the considered variables and the vector error correction methodology is used for the identification. The obtained results indicate that contractionary monetary policy decreases income inequality. These results can have important implications for the design of policies to reduce income inequality by giving more weight to monetary policy.     

RE-EXAMINING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STABILISATION POLICY

This paper develops an alternative international macroeconomic model for evaluating the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in stabilising national income under fixed and floating exchange rates. It encompasses national output and income, saving, investment, money and capital flows and linkages between the exchange rate, price levels and real interest rates consistent with international parity conditions. It demonstrates that the nature of government spending is pivotal to the effectiveness of fiscal policy, revealing that, ceteris paribus , higher public consumption expenditure contracts national income and depreciates the exchange rate, whereas higher productive public investment spending has opposite effects. The framework also shows that the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as macroeconomic policy instruments is not ultimately dependent on the exchange rate regime.     

Increased Earnings Inequality and Macroeconomic Performance: the case of Canada in the 1980s

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the increase in earnings inequality and the relationship to macroeconomic conditions, in Canada, during the 1980s. Regression results presented here indicate that a positive and uniform relationship between the unemployment rate and earnings inequality existed through the period 1981 to 1989. These results contrast with recent findings that the unemployment-inequality relationship weakened in the late 1980s in other liberal economies, such as the US and UK. The main policy implication is that stimulative macroeconomic policy remains a relevant policy instrument in Canada and, more generally, that institutions, such as the degree of unionization, and policies, such as minimum wages, may partially explain differences in the pattern of inequality among countries.     

The Single Currency and Labour Market Flexibility: a Necessary Partnership?

This paper examines the macroeconomic consequences of rigidities in the European labour markets, and shows that attempts to impose a single monetary regime on economies with different structures can lead to a breakdown in co-ordination. Such breakdowns can occur when expenditure-switching effects are dominated by the income effects of greater policy discipline. Market flexibility should therefore be given greater importance than the process of policy formulation in the 'New Europe'     

Economic Polarization and US Policy Activism

Many economists view the increased inequality associated with globalization as the cause of the US ‘employment miracle’. This paper argues, to the contrary, that any such benefits are short-lived. Increased income inequality has heightened social—and especially racial and genderpolarization; and the reactions of globally mobile corporations to this polarization have reduced both access to capital and the size of the fiscal and monetary policy multipliers. Stimulative macroeconomic policy remains crucial in achieving a more prosperous, less unequal society, if it includes measures to enhance access to human and financial capital.     

On the determinants of long-run inflation uncertainty: Evidence from a panel of 17 developed economies

Based on a cross section of 17 advanced economies and data for the period 1975 to 2015, we examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. We construct a proxy for the unobservable inflation uncertainty based on the slowly evolving long-term variance component of inflation from a Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). We show that long-run inflation uncertainty is high if an inflation-tolerant central bank governor is in power during a period of high inflation, if the policy rate is below the one that is prescribed by the Taylor rule and during times of heightened stock and exchange rate volatility.     

Inequality,Redistribution, and the Financial Crisis: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts for Austria

In this paper, we provide novel findings regarding the distributional effects of the global financial and economic crisis and how redistribution operated during this time, using detailed data for Austria. We construct distributional national accounts for the period 2004–2016 by combining survey data, tabulated tax data, and detailed national accounts data. The comprehensive data set allows us to analyze the distribution of macroeconomic income growth across the income distribution and to explore the evolution of income inequality over time. Our results suggest that as the distribution of growth changed over time, this had considerable repercussions for inequality, which started to decline at the very beginning of the economic and financial crisis, but increased again after 2012. We find that capital income largely determined both the level and the dynamics of income inequality. Government spending was found to play a key role for redistributive effects across the income distribution. In particular, in-kind transfers redistributed pre-tax income to a large extent. Our results show further that individuals with lower educational levels and younger individuals faced negative growth in pre-tax income over the years and also benefited considerably from redistribution.     

Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies

Commodity terms of trade shocks have continued to drive macroeconomic fluctuations in most emerging market economies. The volatility and persistence of these shocks have posed great challenges for monetary policy. This study employs a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the optimal monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks in commodity dependent emerging market economies. The model is calibrated to the South African economy. The study shows that CPI inflation targeting performs relatively better than exchange rate targeting and non-traded inflation targeting both in terms of reducing macroeconomic volatility and reducing the losses of a non-benevolent central bank. However, macroeconomic stabilisation comes at a cost of increased exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the appropriate response to commodity induced exogenous shocks is to target CPI inflation.     

Traded and non-traded goods: An empirical test with Nigerian data

An income expenditure model is used to describe the relationship between the balance of payments and price inflation of non-traded goods. Real and monetary approaches to the balance of payments suggest different relationships among these variables, and compatible elements of the monetary approach are incorporated into the income-expenditure model. The model is then tested with Nigerian data for the period 1960–1979. The pattern of economic growth and conduct of monetary policy make the Nigerian economy a convenient test of the empirical significance of these macroeconomic relationships.     

Macroeconomic Policy and Employment Growth in Australia

Abstract
This article, which explores various aspects of macroeconomic policy and employment growth, is prompted by the relative lack of attention given to these issues in the Green and White Papers on unemployment. The problem of hysteresis reinforces the generally recognised need to reduce the excessive volatility of output and employment growth in Australia. International comparisons presented in the article suggest that Australian output and employment growth have been more volatile than those of the three major OECD countries. Reduction in macroeconomic volatility requires more effective short-term demand management than we have had in the recent past, and in turn, means that we must know more about the strength and timing of the effects of major macroeconomic policy instruments on employment growth and unemployment. This article presents employment growth equations for Australia over the period 1979–93 which incorporate domestic macroeconomic policy effects as well as the influences of the international business cycle. We show that monetary and fiscal policy have had a significant impact on the evolution of employment in Australia and, in particular, that tight monetary and fiscal policy contributed substantially to the recession of 1990–92.     

International spillovers of ECB’s unconventional monetary policy: the effect on Central Europe

We examine how unconventional monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) influences macroeconomic stability in three Central European economies. We estimate various panel vector autoregressions (PVARs) using monthly data from 2008 to 2014. Using the shadow policy rate and central bank assets as measures of unconventional policies, we find that output growth and inflation in Central Europe temporarily increase following an expansionary unconventional monetary policy shock by the ECB. Using both impulse responses and variance decompositions, we find that the effect of unconventional policies on output growth is much stronger than the effect on inflation.     

The effect of growth volatility on income inequality

This paper assesses the long-run effect of growth volatility on income inequality using a comprehensive panel of annual U.S. state-level data during the 1945 to 2004 period. Using the pooled mean group (PMG) estimator, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that larger growth volatility positively and significantly associates with higher income inequality. Our key finding is robust to alternative lag structures, conditioning variables, inequality measures, volatility indicators, time periods, and panel estimators. Our key finding does change for asymmetric effects, where larger growth volatility positively and significantly associates with higher income inequality only for positive economic growth. The volatility effect proves positive, but insignificant, for negative economic growth.     

Impact of foreign prices and interest rates on canadian economy under alternative monetary and exchange rate regimes

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of U.S. short- and long-term monetary policy under both flexible and managed floating systems, using the new CANDIDE Model 2.0. We have also examined the role of domestic monetary policy in the Canadian economy under both fixed and flexible exchange rate systems. The following are some of the important findings of our study:

1. Our results support the traditional view that under the fixed exchange rate regime, monetary authorities cannot successfully pursue an independent monetary policy from its trading partners — an effort to increase money supply will be almost offset by increases in the balance of payments deficit. In contrast, in the flexible exchange rate regime, monetary policy is more effective in producing an increased growth in output and employment. However the increased output growth comes at the cost of higher prices induced by increased wages and a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.
2. Our results suggest that the impact of U.S. interest rates on investment, GNE, employment, productivity, and government debt is less severe in a pure floating exchange rate regime, compared to the managed floating system. However, the impact of U.S. interest rate policy on the Canadian inflation rate is worse in the case of flexible exchange rate regime. Even though real income and inflation are less favourable in both cases, our results indicate a trade-off between output growth and inflation.
3. Our results imply that under a pure floating monetary authorities can determine the long-run rate of inflation in Canada independent of others. However, the United States and Canadian economies are interrelated during the adjustment process, even under the flexible exchange rates, through the terms of trade and the wage-price spiral channels.

     

Growth, income distribution, and fiscal policy volatility

The relationship between income distribution and economic growth has long been an important economic research subject. Despite substantial evidence on the negative impact on long-term growth of inequality in the literature, however, there is not much consensus on the specific channels through which inequality affects growth. The empirical validity of two most prominent political economy channels - redistributive fiscal spending and taxes, and sociopolitical instability - has recently been challenged. We advance a new political economy channel for the negative link between inequality and growth, a fiscal policy volatility channel, and present strong supporting econometric evidence in a large sample of countries over the period of 1960-2000. Our finding also sheds light on another commonly observed negative relation between macroeconomic volatility and growth. We carefully address the robustness of the results in terms of data, estimation methods, outlier problem, and endogeneity problem that often plague the standard OLS (ordinary least squares) regression.     

Explaining local manufacturing growth in Chile: the advantages of sectoral diversity

This article investigates whether the agglomeration of economic activity in regional clusters affects long-run manufacturing Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth in an emerging market context. We explore a large firm-level panel dataset for Chile during a period characterized by high growth rates and rising regional income inequality (1992–2004). Our findings are clear-cut. Locations with greater concentration of a particular sector have not experienced faster TFP growth during this period. Rather, local sector diversity was associated with higher long-run TFP growth. However, there is no evidence that the diversity effect was driven by the local interaction with a set of suppliers and/or clients. We interpret this as evidence that agglomeration economies are driven by other factors such as the sharing of access to specialized inputs not provided solely by a single sector, e.g. skills or financing.     

Structural change in the Australian electricity industry during the 1990s and the effect on household income distribution: A macro–micro approach

The Australian electricity industry experienced significant structural change during the 1990s mainly as a result of microeconomic reform. We analyse the effects of the structural change on the distribution of household income using a macro–micro approach. Our work shows that, nationwide, all income deciles experience higher real incomes in the order of 2%. Our results show that a previously state-owned monopoly industry can experience significant structural change while generating significant improvements in household real income without leading to significantly adverse impacts on national or regional income inequality. It suggests that policy makers in advanced economies should seriously consider such reforms given that they may generate large economic benefits with rather small economic costs.