基于ECM的我国税收弹性实证分析

运用时间数列和计量分析方法,利用1978--2006年我国税收收入和GDP数据,针对1978—1994年和1995--2006年两个阶段分别建立误差修正模型,对我国税收的长期弹性和短期弹性进行分析。研究结果发现：1978—1994年我国税收的长期弹性小于其短期弹性;自1995年以来,我国税收弹性发生了显著变化,税收的长期弹性大于其短期弹性。     

Cigarette tax revenues and tobacco control in Japan

The hypotheses of non-addiction, myopia and rational addiction are tested using annual, quarterly and monthly data. Changes in the prices of Japanese cigarettes can be viewed as exogenous from the point of view of consumer behaviour, because the Japanese government controls cigarette prices. The empirical results of this paper support the addiction hypothesis. The short-run and long-run price elasticities range from ?0.338 to ?0.421, and from ?0.679 to ?0.686, respectively; thus, increases in tax revenues in the long run are likely to be smaller than those in the short run. As a result, tax increases would be an effective means of curbing smoking and reducing its social cost. Furthermore, the debt compensation programmes for the Japan Railway and the National Forestry will not go according to plan, unless revenues are increased in the future.     

Efficient Policies for Green Design in a Vintage Durable Good Model

Using a dynamic durable good model, we investigate efficiency-restoring policy schemes in case of free garbage disposal. In the long-run, efficiency is attained by a subsidy on recyclability of the durable and a tax on the purchase of the durable. On the short-run adjustment path, in contrast, both policy instruments may change their signs such that the government harms recyclability by taxing it and promotes the demand for the durable good by subsidizing it. A deposit--refund system is shown to yield the efficient allocation both in the short-run as well as in the long-run.JEL classification: H21, Q28     

Government spending and revenues in the Greek economy: evidence from nonlinear cointegration

This paper attempts to re-evaluate the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government revenues and expenditures of the Greek economy over the period 1999–2010. The empirical analysis applies the newly developed asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology of Shin et al. (2011) which permits more flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process towards equilibrium, than in the classical case of a linear model. Our findings point towards the fiscal synchronization hypothesis, supporting evidence of asymmetric interactions between the two fiscal components in both the long- and the short-run time horizon. More particularly, in the long-run, the negative changes of expenditures dominate the response of revenues, while the opposite applies in the response of expenditures.     

The International Transmission of Tax Policies In A Dynamic World Economy*

The international transmission of tax shocks are analyzed in a two-country infinite-horizon representative agent framework. the viability of the tax regimes, arising from the arbitrage conditions characterizing equilibrium in a perfect world capital market, is emphasized. Conditions for both short-run and long-run viability are derived, and the two polar regimes of source-based and residence-based taxation are discussed. In general, the former is found more likely to satisfy the viability conditions than the latter. With equity financing, the long-run viability of residence-based taxation is likely to require the harmonization of tax and/or dividend policy. the main features of the dynamic adjustment paths following a tax increase are characterized.     

Dynamic employment adjustments over business cycles

This paper uses U.S. monthly industrial production employment data between 1964 and 2000 to examine the dynamic labor adjustments of production workers and nonproduction workers in both the short and long-run. The results from the short-run analysis show that the dynamic adjustment of production workers is consistent with business cycles. However, the adjustment of nonproduction workers is relatively fixed, lags behind the shocks over business cycle changes, and exhibits the quasi-fixed factor property. In the long-run, we found that nonproduction workers and production workers are cointegrated indicating that the two series are in long-run equilibrium.First version received: March 2002/Final version received: November 2003We would like to thank James McClure, participants in the Economics Department seminar series at Ball State University, and an anonymous referee for their comments and suggestions.     

A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis

This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export GDP and vice versa (short-run bidirectional causality), (ii) the long-run effect of exports on non-export output, however, is negative on average, but (iii) there are large differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP across countries. Cross-sectional regressions indicate that these cross-country differences in the long-run effect of exports on non-export GDP are significantly negatively related to cross-country differences in primary export dependence and business and labor market regulation. In contrast, there is no significant association between the growth effect of exports and the capacity of a country to absorb new knowledge.     

Tax competition,tax coordination and tax harmonization: The effects of EMU

There is little doubt that the step towards a monetary union in Europe will increase both the distorionary effects of existing differences in national tax systems and the intensity of tax competition for internationally mobile commodity and factor tax bases. This paper discusses selected issues of commodity and capital tax coordination that are likely to be affected by monetary unification. Starting from the distortive present scheme of value-added taxation in Europe we first analyze the effects of a switch to a general origin-based VAT as a way to maintain national tax rate autonomy over this important tax base. While an origin-based VAT would neither distort trade flows — both within the EU and with third countries — nor investment decisions in the long-run, its short-run effects are likely to be severe in the absence of exchange rate flexibility. In the field of capital taxation the focus switches to the feasibility of regional harmonization measures when there is no cooperation with the rest of the world. We argue that in a monetary union the mobility costs of capital will be significantly lower within the EU as compared to outside investments. This provides an efficiency argument for minimum source taxes on both interest income and corporate profits even if cooperation with third countries is infeasible.     

How a race to the bottom can make you fat

This article measures the effect of fiscal competition on obesity rates in the United States through education and health spending. We hypothesize that fiscal competition to attract firms results in lower business tax revenues and higher public infrastructure spending which crowds out education and health spending leading to an increase in obesity rates. We empirically test this hypothesis. We find that there is significant fiscal competition to attract firms. Next, we show that when business tax revenues are lowered and public infrastructure spending favouring businesses increased, public health and education spending declines and obesity rates significantly increase. Thus, fiscal competition significantly contributes to obesity rates through the education and health spending channel.     

Long-run investment under uncertain demand

In the literature investigating the impact of uncertainty on short-run and long-run investment, most authors have used a log linear profit function. This functional form has been generally considered a reasonable approximation for a more general one and has the advantage of providing closed form solutions for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation. In this paper, we consider the profit function for the case of a monopolistic firm facing a linear demand function with additive shocks. Under this assumption, analytical solutions, for both short-run investment rule and long-run rate of capital accumulation, are not available. We then 1) propose an analytical approximation of the short-run investment rule and 2) show how such approximation can be used in order to derive the corresponding i) steady-state distribution of the optimal stock of capital and ii) the long-run average rate of capital accumulation. Finally, we compare the long-run rates of capital accumulation calculated under both profit function specifications. We find that, within a plausible range of parameter values, the two rates are significantly different. Hence, we conclude that the choice of a log linear functional form has a non-trivial impact on the magnitude of the long run rate of capital accumulation.     

Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study

This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union in East Asia focusing on business cycles synchronization. Considering the critical role of trade integration in the East Asian integration process, we study whether East Asian countries are characterized by business cycle synchronization. The related empirical literature dedicated to business cycles synchronization in East Asia does not lead to firm conclusion. In this paper, we suggest a different empirical approach allowing, contrary to the previous studies, to detect endogenously structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure based on the time-varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but it distinguishes also this dynamics between short- and long-term. We compute also cohesion statistics to test if countries tend to be more synchronized or not. The main finding of this paper is that the increase in bilateral trade inside the East Asian region significantly improves long-run business cycle synchronization. The short-run influence of bilateral trade shows mixed results. Indeed, short-run cycles remain significantly influenced both by shocks hitting each country and by economic policy responses. As a consequence, more bilateral trade and convergence in economic policy constitute two complementary processes to promote business cycle synchronization.     

Tax reforms under market distortions in product and labour markets

Using a two-agent model comprised of capitalists and workers, this paper examines the importance of imperfect competition in product and labour markets in determining the welfare effects of tax reform. The reform considered consists of eliminating the capital tax alongside a concurrent rise in the labour tax. In contrast to the perfectly competitive model, models with product or labour market failures each result in welfare losses for the workers in the long-run. In a realistic calibration to the UK economy, combining these imperfections implies that this tax reform will be Pareto improving in the long-run. However, these welfare gains over longer time horizons come at the cost of short-run losses, which, consistent with previous research, result in welfare losses for workers post-reform.     

Government spending and revenues in Sweden 1722–2011: evidence from hidden cointegration

This study examines the long-run causal relationship between government revenues and spending of the Swedish economy over the period 1722–2011. The results based on hidden cointegration technique and a modified version of the Granger non-causality test, show that there exists a long-run and asymmetric relationship between government spending and government revenues. Our estimation results can be summarized into three main empirical findings. First, the government follows a hard budget constraint and soft budget constraint strategies in the case of negative and positive shocks, respectively. Second, negative shocks to the fiscal budget are removed fairly quickly compared to positive shocks. Third, bi-directional causality between revenues and expenditures offers support in favor of the fiscal synchronization hypothesis. The policy implication is that budget deficit’s reduction could be achieved through government spending cut, accompanied by contemporaneous tax controls.     

Aggregate price responses to wage and productivity changes: Evidence from the U.S.

This papei examines the dynamic responses of prices to wage and productivity changes and distinguishes between short-run and long-run effects. The long-run solution of the dynamic specification is consistent with the hypothesis of markup pricing over unit labour costs. The restrictions implied by this long-run behaviour are not rejected.by U.S. data. In addition, the evidence supports the view that the short-run wage effects are significantly stronger than productivity effects.     

Company tax reform with a water's edge

This paper analyzes the effects of switching from a corporate tax system based on separate accounting (SA) towards a system in which two countries form a formula apportionment (FA) union while a third country sticks to SA (water's edge). Our analysis draws a positive picture on the water's edge regulation. In the short-run, for given tax rates, the transition from SA to FA is likely to reduce profit shifting from the FA union to non-FA tax havens. In a long-run tax competition analysis, we find a negative water's edge externality under FA that tends to be less detrimental than the profit shifting externality under SA and may offset other externalities under FA.     

出口退税、贸易盈余和外汇储备的一般均衡分析与中国的实证

本文构建了一个简单的大国开放经济一般均衡模型,从理论上探讨了外汇储备从贸易盈余时的短期均衡到贸易平衡时的长期均衡的动态变化过程,并在此基础上量化分析了降低出口退税率对长期均衡时的外汇储备的影响。研究表明,降低出口退税率在短期内对减少贸易盈余和控制外汇储备增量有一定的帮助,但长期来看则与出口产品的价格弹性密切相关,只有降低那些价格弹性较大的产品的出口退税率,才能够有效地减少长期均衡时的外汇储备,否则可能产生适得其反的效果。中国数据的实证研究支持了理论模型的结论。由于中国的出口产品总体缺乏价格弹性,因此,近年来实行的一系列出口退税政策改革在长期内使国家外汇储备出现了一定程度的增加。本文最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

Hollowing out of the Real Economy: Evidence from China’s Listed Firms

The paper studies an often-observed phenomenon of diversification of manufacturing firms into real estate development in East Asian economies. Utilizing a sudden change in China’s accounting standards that requires firms to disclose information about their real estate holdings for investment purpose (or investment property), we examine both the impact of such diversification on firms’ investment in their original business and the stock market response to such diversification. Our results confirm there exists underinvestment in original business (or hollowing out of the real economy) for firms diversifying into real estate, and that there is a lack of investor response to such diversification, in both short-run and long-run. Our study calls for further research on the role of real estate development in the long-run competitiveness of developing economies.     

Foreign enclaves and economic development: A theoretical analysis

We consider an urban foreign enclave with sector-specific foreign capital in an otherwise mobile-capital Harris-Todaro model. We consider the taxation of foreign capital. A dynamic version of this model is considered. The long-run equilibrium and the comparative steady-state effects are analyzed. We get some interesting effects of reduction in tax rate on foreign capital on the short-run and the long-run equilibrium levels of domestic factor income and national income under some meaningful conditions.     

Optimum Growth and Carbon Policies with Lags in the Climate System

We study the optimal carbon tax in an economy in which climate change, stemming from polluting non-renewable resource, affects the economy’s growth potential. Our main contribution is to introduce and explore the natural time lag of the climate system between emissions and damages to capital accumulation in an endogenous growth setting. This allows us to investigate how optimal climate policy, and its interplay with climate dynamics, affect long-run growth and the transition of the economy towards it. Without pollution decay, a higher speed of emissions diffusion steepens the growth profile of the economy. With pollution decay, this leads to lower short-run but higher long-run economic growth during transition. Poor understanding of the emissions diffusion process leads to suboptimal carbon taxes, resource extraction and growth.     

Bribes vs. taxes: Market structure and incentives

Firms in low-income countries often avoid paying taxes by making informal payments to tax officials. To decrease these payments, we design an incentive scheme for business tax inspectors that rewards them according to the anonymous evaluation submitted by inspected firms. We show theoretically that incentives decrease the bribe amount, but make firms facing a more inelastic demand more attractive for inspectors. Attaching higher weights to the evaluation of smaller firms limits the scope for targeting. We evaluate both schemes in a field experiment in the Kyrgyz Republic. Our intervention reduces average business costs and prices, and increases tax revenues.