中国不同收入等级城镇居民预防性储蓄动机强度测度及分析--基于拓展的Dynan模型的检验

本文拓展Dynan模型,并用中国2002-2012年31个省份面板数据对城镇不同收入等级家庭的预防性储蓄动机进行测度分析。结果表明：城镇居民预防性储蓄动机更多来自中等收入居民家庭,且不同收入等级家庭的预防性储蓄动机强度呈现正态分布特征。城镇不同收入等级家庭储蓄行为基本不受当期流动性约束影响,而服务类消费价格普遍上涨带来预期流动性约束对城镇居民储蓄行为有显著影响。     

社会养老保障制度影响我国居民储蓄行为的实证检验

通过应用生命周期模型实证检验我国社会养老保障制度对居民储蓄的影响,本文发现养老金数额的变化对我国居民的预防性储蓄行为产生显著作用。提高养老金标准,建立由中央财政支持的统一的社会保障体系是降低我国巨额储蓄的必经之路。     

预防性储蓄动机的异质性与消费倾向的变化——基于中国城镇居民的研究

本文构建理论模型并进行实证检验,证明消费者预防性储蓄动机存在异质性:(1)教育程度是预防性储蓄动机重要影响因素而年龄不是;(2)消费过度敏感和过度平滑在中国消费者中典型并存,教育不能减弱消费者过度敏感和过度平滑,甚至会加剧消费过度平滑;(3)消费支出不确定性并不完全决定于收入不确定性.因此,为了提高居民的消费倾向和改变中国现有的高预防性储蓄状况,关键在于降低预期消费支出的不确定性对消费者的影响.     

我国居民家庭的资产配置分析——基于预期通货膨胀等因素的视角

近年来,随着我国居民生活质量的持续提高和资本市场发展的不断完善,家庭的资产配置问题历久弥新,成为关注的焦点。它不仅受家庭内部特征因素的影响,而且受宏观经济环境的影响。文章在混合式新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线框架下,在设定关于预期通货膨胀率和预期真实利率的VAR方程基础上,建立状态空间模型,选用2002年1月至2015年12月的序列数据,运用卡尔曼滤波算法来估计预期通胀率,划分家庭的资产类别为储蓄类(通货、存款)、收益类(股票、证券投资基金、国债、保险准备金)和耐用品类(住宅资产),构建多元GARCH模型,综合分析宏观经济指标因素(GDP增长率、利率和预期通胀率)、家庭内部因素(收入水平、家庭其他决策中的消费)和资产价格因素(房产价格)对家庭资产配置的影响,家庭将据此调整资产配置方案,实现更加合理、有效的配置目标。     

我国居民预防性储蓄研究

由于未来的不确定性所导致的预防性储蓄动机,造成我国居民储蓄率较高,而抑制了即期消费。本文从预防性储蓄理论出发,通过定性和定量分析研究我国居民的预防性储蓄行为,然后分析预防性储蓄动机对居民消费需求的影响,最后提出政策建议。     

收入不确定性预期影响西部农村居民消费的实证研究

论文以西部农村居民消费为研究对象,分析其受到收入不确定性预期影响的消费行为。西部农村居民主要收入来源不稳定,其对未来不可预测的支出存在不确定性。当西部农村居民受到收入不确定性预期的影响,会将其增加的持久收入中的更大一部分转变成储蓄,以应对未来不可预料的支出。针对收入不确定性预期产生的负面效应,提出相关对策建议：建立持续增收机制和加快农村居民社会保障的建设。     

我国居民预防性储蓄动机实证研究

改革开放以来，我国经济取得快速发展的同时，也面临着储蓄过度、消费不足的问题，其中重要原因是人们预期的短视和经济制度环境变化的不确定性。这些因素对居民的消费、储蓄行为产生了深远影响。本文以经济转型时期不确定性为研究背景，采用1978-2010年间宏观经济数据来分析转型背景下我国城乡居民预防性储蓄动机的时序变化，进而对影响居民预防性储蓄动机的因素做了实证检验。最后提出了相应的对策建议。     

浅谈中国居民预防性消费储蓄的实证检验

本文拟以预防性消费储蓄理论为研究框架,运用1978年～2004年时间序列数据,采用误差修正模型来(ECM)来对中国居民的储蓄行为进行实证检验。本文证明了经济转轨时期中中国居民消费储蓄的预防性储蓄特征,并提出了刺激居民消费的相关政策性建议。     

城市化进程中固定资产配置与居民消费行为分析——以居民住房资产为主要研究对象

随着制度变革和城市化驱动住房需求释放,居民的财富管理和资产配置持续投向住房,现如今住房已成为中国居民家庭的主要资产,居民住房资产配置支出对城镇居民的其他消费产生挤占。随着人均收入和城市化率的提高,消费结构从食品等生存性需求转变到居住、教育等改善性和发展性需求,北京、上海、深圳等大城市的居住消费占比均明显高于全国均值。居民的住房资产显著正向影响家庭消费支出,但财富效应较小,不同收入水平家庭的住房资产对消费影响效应存在差异,可以预期,随着中国城市化进程向大都市化迈进,大城市的消费成长空间巨大,并将继续保持增长态势。     

财政社会性支出与居民消费关系的实证研究

财政社会性支出对居民消费有着重要影响.本文以消费函数理论为基础,通过数理方法推导出财政社会性支出影响居民消费的理论模型,并进行计量检验.结果表明,财政社会性支出的长期变化可以改变消费者持久收入水平,并影响消费者的未来收入预期,进而改变其消费决策,即从长期来说财政社会性支出能明显刺激居民消费.     

基于资源配置视角的保险公司社会责任研究

本文从保险的性质与职能所天然具有的社会性出发,研究保险公司履行社会责任的缘起,并对其社会责任的内涵和边界做了理论澄清;利用演化经济学中的Logistic模型,从保险业资源配置的视角分析了保险公司如何在营利性、保险资源开发与履行社会责任三者间求得平衡;并提出了促进我国保险公司履行社会责任,实现保险资源有效开发和利用的相应措施。     

Evaluation of a decision support training effectiveness measure

Resource constraints affect the US Department of Defense's ability to simultaneously sustain current operations and recapitalize for future challenges. An assumption is that decision support training may improve resource allocation decisions; however, few instruments are available to measure the effectiveness of decision support training to verify that assumption. The purpose of this research is to evaluate an instrument to measure decision support training effectiveness. Using data collected from a resource allocation simulation, we found a significant positive relationship between decision support training and outcomes in a controlled field study involving a complex problem. Thus, in the proper context, the resource allocation simulation described herein may be a reliable measure of decision support training effectiveness. Copyright © 2008 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

International comparison of household asset allocation: Micro-evidence from cross-country comparisons

Asset allocation, an important part of household finance, attracts constant attention across countries. Due to the differences between countries, asset allocation presents different characteristics in various countries. This paper compares and analyzes the differences in household asset allocation around the world based on the data of 23 developing and developed countries, such as China, the United States, 20 EU countries, and Australia, at the micro-level. This paper finds that in all of these countries, except for the United States, housing assets often occupy a large proportion of household total assets, which we give the name ‘Valuing Housing’, mainly attributed to the high housing value-to-income ratios (especially in developing countries). Further analysis shows that, with the increase in household income, the proportion of housing assets in most countries presents an inverted ‘U' shape, which first increases and then decreases, and where the inflection point appears in the top 20% of households. Also, with increases in income, China, the United States, and some other countries see an increasing proportion of financial assets. The top 20% of households tend to invest in financial assets. In addition, as the ages of household heads increase, the proportion of housing assets tends to first rise and then level off, and that of financial assets tends to first decrease and then level off. The conclusions of this paper help to better understand the differences in the allocation of household assets across countries and explain the underlying causes.     

An empirical analysis of factors predicting the behavioral intention to adopt Internet shopping technology among non-shoppers in a developing country context: Does gender matter?

Motivated by the lack of knowledge of what factors deterring Internet users from adopting the Internet shopping in developing cultures, this investigation is therefore intended to underline the possible factors responsible for their deterrence. To achieve this objective, a model was proposed by involving factors established in literature as key potential drivers for predicating individuals' behavioral intention to adopt new technologies. The proposed factors were drawn from popular IS/IT adoption theories, namely perceived ease-of-use, perceived usefulness, perceived compatibility, social influence, trust, perceived risk, privacy, security, Internet shopping anxiety, Internet self-efficacy and price. Gender moderating influence was investigated in the conceptualized relationships between proposed factors and behavioral intention.This study was implemented by collecting data through a self-administered questionnaire from a broad diversity of Jordanian Internet users. Analyzing the data which consists of 261 valid datasets was accomplished by using WarpPLS 4.0. The results provide significant statistical evidence in support of all the factors hypothesized to influence behavioral intention to adopt with the exception of three factors: perceived risk, privacy and security. Furthermore, the gender was found to moderate the relationships between five of the proposed factors (perceived ease-of-use, social influence, trust, perceived risk, privacy) and behavioral intention. This study has also revealed some differences between online shoppers (based on prior literature and results) and non-shoppers. Interestingly, the proposed model explains 58% of the total variance in intention to adopt Internet shopping. Findings and limitations are discussed, theoretical contributions and practical implications are outlined, and future research directions are suggested.     

Computer ownership and home usage: the case of Malaysia

The multi‐functionality of computers and the increased accessibility of the Internet have created a demand for computers at home which was previously concentrated in offices. Using the Heckman two‐step model and by combining socioeconomic factors and insights from Becker's theory on allocation of time in the household with information system theories, it was found that: (i) household allocation of resources; (ii) age and gender; and (iii) household social environment are significant in determining computer purchase decisions and its extent of usage in households in Malaysia, a developing information, communication and technology country. Responses collected from 500 computer users were used in the study. Unlike most household technologies, the results also suggested that despite the multi‐functionality of computers, it was perceived as a technology that facilitates the consumption process more than the production process.     

Effects of social media on consumers’ purchase decisions: evidence from Taobao

Given the rapid growth of social media, it is important to understand the effects of social media on consumers’ purchase decisions in the e-commerce environment. However, although some e-commerce sites have started to link themselves to social media to enhance user interactions, previous studies of social media and service management have shed little light on the effects of social media on consumers’ purchase decisions. This study proposes a theoretical research model that includes social media factors, social impact transfer factors, and e-commerce outcome factors. We posit social interaction ties and social media commitment as key elements of social media. An online questionnaire was conducted to test the research model and hypotheses based on survey data collected from Taobao, the largest e-commerce site in China. The analysis results indicate that social interaction ties have significant positive effects on social impact transfer factors and trust in online vendor, whereas they do not directly influence visit intention. Social media commitment plays a crucial role in increasing social impact transfer factors and e-commerce outcomes. The findings reveal the different effects of normative and informational social influences on consumer purchase decisions. Further implications are discussed.     

The Effect of Firm Profit versus Personal Economic Well Being on the Level of Ethical Responses Given by Managers

Members of organizations are continually making decisions that have important consequences for themselves and the firms for which they work. In some cases these decisions affect human well being and social welfare and thus have important ethical impacts for those affected by the decisions.This study examines if certain strategic situations (enhancement of firm profits versus personal economic well being) cause decision makers to act more or less ethically. A questionnaire consisting of two vignettes which depicted actual business situations was used to collect data from 171 managers of a large Southeastern financial and communication conglomerate. Results from multivariate repeated measures tests suggest that managers will vary their level of ethical response when faced with a situation where their own economic well being is at stake.     

Consumer motivation for the decision to boycott: The social dilemma

This study suggests a rational framework to explain consumers’ decision to boycott. We proposed an instrumental boycott framework based on rational response to the offending behaviour of a target company. The hypotheses embedded within the research model are empirically evaluated. The data were collected by questionnaire survey, and structural equation modelling was utilized for data analysis. The results show that social factors (message credibility, expected overall participation and perceived boycott effectiveness) generate motivations for consumers’ boycott decisions. In addition, it is identified that these factors increase consumers’ perceived likelihood of boycott success. Further, it is also found that consumers' perceived likelihood of boycott success positively affect their boycott decision via the possibility of changing a target company's offending behavior and unwillingness to purchase the target company's products. The results of this study explain consumers’ instrumental boycott decision‐making process in terms of social dilemma. Further, this study provides practical contributions for understanding consumers’ rational boycott behaviour. Specific implications for marketing managers and boycott organizations are outlined in the general discussion. Suggestions for future research are also presented in the conclusion.     

The case against active pension funds: Evidence from the Turkish Private Pension System

Using data on private Turkish pension funds we show that most active managers are not able to provide performance beyond what could be achieved by passive indexing. The average fund beats its benchmark by only 26 basis points, before fees. We also observe herding behavior among managers' asset allocation decisions which can potentially explain their lack of overperformance. Our results strongly support the need for low-cost index funds in emerging market countries that are reforming their pension schemes. We further recommend regulatory oversight on the “activeness” of funds and introduction of default plans with more balanced asset allocations.