中国工业二氧化碳边际减排成本测算与行业碳达峰预测

本文从边际减排成本入手，对中国工业各行业减排空间与碳达峰进程进行考察。在采用方向距离函数非参数估计方法测算1997—2019年中国工业行业二氧化碳边际减排成本的基础上，对2020—2030年中国工业各行业边际减排成本变化趋势进行预测，研判了目前发展趋势下工业各行业碳排放达峰进程，并进一步分析其影响因素。研究发现，估算期内中国工业各行业二氧化碳边际减排成本均有明显上升，但各行业上升速度和减排空间存在较大差异。预测结果显示，现有发展趋势下我国大部分工业行业可在2030年按期实现碳达峰，部分重工业行业需加快转型速度。行业结构、能源消费结构和能源使用效率对各行业边际减排成本具有显著影响，为控制减排成本、加快碳达峰进程提供了可行思路。     

中国低碳电力技术减排潜力及减排成本分析

利用技术经济学方法测算了中国核电及可再生能源等低碳电力技术的二氧化碳减排潜力和减排成本。研究结果表明,2020年低碳电力技术的累计装机容量将超过6×108 kw,年发电量达到2.3×1012 kwh时,占全国电力消费总量的30%左右,可替代煤炭6.6×108 tec,从而避免近20×108 t的CO2排放。但除水电、核电外,大部分低碳电力技术的减排成本处于200~700 CNY/t CO2的较高水平,为低碳电力技术的示范推广及大规模应用带来经济障碍。因此,政府应制定合理的电力发展政策和规划,尽快降低可再生电力技术的发电成本、解除不稳定电力大规模并网的技术障碍,从而促进低碳电力技术的快速、健康发展。     

中国节能减排潜力测度与优化路径

在综合考虑能源利用和污染物排放的基础上,利用数据包络分析方法构建节能潜力和减排潜力的测度模型。利用1996—2010年中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)的相关数据,计算其节能潜力和减排潜力。基于此,利用ArcGIS10.0软件分析中国节能潜力和减排潜力的时空演进情况,找到各省节能减排的最优路径。结果表明:整体上看,中国具有较大的节能减排潜力,其中节能减排潜力较大的省份主要有山西、贵州、云南、陕西和甘肃等;随着时间的推移,中国的节能减排潜力呈明显的"西-中-东"阶梯状分布格局,节能、减排的重点区域均有向西部地区转移的倾向;中国节能减排的重点监控省份可选择的优化路径有渐进式和飞跃式两种。     

四川省能源消耗二氧化碳排放与减排目标分析

为应对全球气候变化,中国政府决定到2020年单位GDP二氧化碳排放较2005年下降40%～45%。在参考IPCC能源碳排放系数和中国碳氧化率等基础上,结合中国实际建立了能源消耗二氧化碳核算方法。以四川省为例,分析其2000～2010年间能源消耗二氧化碳排放,同时建立情景方案分析二氧化碳减排目标。结果表明:四川省能源消耗以煤为主,2010年能源消耗二氧化碳排放量为26900.15万吨,占全国排放总量的3.23%,且增速较快。单位GDP二氧化碳排放总体呈下降趋势,2000～2010年间年均下降率为2.4%,但与发达国家差距明显。建立的3个二氧化碳减排目标方案中,与趋势发展情景和规划发展情景相比,适宜发展情景更加合理,在该情景方案下,2015年单位GDP二氧化碳排放较2010年下降17.08%,2020年较2005年下降45.55%,可完成规划目标且更符合四川省发展实际。最后根据分析结果提出了四川省二氧化碳减排建议。     

京津冀地区钢铁行业节能和CO_2减排的技术路径

京津冀地区聚集了中国近1/3的钢铁产能。钢铁行业为该地区的经济发展做出了很大贡献,但是也面临着节能和CO_2减排的巨大压力。建立自下而上的综合优化模型,以钢铁行业国家鼓励推广的44项节能技术为基础,在京津冀地区钢铁行业发展目标约束下,优化技术发展路径。研究表明,高温高压干熄焦技术等25项投资成本较低、节能量大的技术将会被广泛采用。在2015—2025年期间内,与基准情景相比,减排情景和碳税情景下的累计节能潜力分别为1 550万吨标准煤和2 549万吨标准煤,累计CO_2减排潜力分别为4 029万吨和6 629万吨;三种情景下的CO_2减排成本分别为7 931.2亿元、8 021.3亿元和10 217.5亿元。与减排情景相比,在碳税情景下,减排成本增加27.38%,但CO_2减排潜力将进一步提高64.5%。因此,采用成本低、节能量大的技术和征收一定的CO_2排放税能够有效地促进CO_2减排。     

中国工业部门的能源效率与减排潜力分析

基于全要素能源效率框架,本文通过引入方向性距离函数和数据包络分析,测算了中国工业部门2000-2009年的能源效率和CO2减排潜力。实证结果表明,以既定最优生产前沿为参考,中国工业部门的总体能源效率偏低,减排潜力较大;各行业能源效率与减排潜力存在较大差异;不同行业能源效率与减排潜力呈现差异性动态变化。本文认为政府可以通过实施差异性碳税政策、灵活利用碳市场机制、强化节能技术研发和促进可再生能源利用以及加强企业环境执法监管等举措来推动中国工业部门提高能源效率及减少CO2排放。     

节能减排、环境规制与技术进步融合路径选择

本文从节能减排与产业发展的困境出发,通过构建动态面板计量模型分析环境规制与技术进步影响节能减排的内在机制并探究其融合路径.研究发现,技术进步能够促进整体行业的节能减排,环境规制与技术进步具有明显的交互作用.然而,这一影响机制存在行业异质性:重污染行业环境规制并没有显示积极的规制效果,其交互作用显著存在;轻污染行业则相反,环境规制得以有效发挥,但其交互作用并不存在.笔者建议应根据行业特征调整规制政策,从规制工具类型转变、独立规制环境等方面创造条件推动环境规制与技术进步共同发挥节能减排作用.     

西北地区重工业城市工业行业碳排放分析——以兰州市为例

气候变化和能源短缺使得低碳工业发展模式成为我国等发展中国家工业化的必然选择,位于西北地区的兰州等以资源、能源加工为主的重工业城市,构建低碳工业发展模式意义重大。通过构建工业行业CO2排放量指数和碳强度竞争力指数,分别从工业行业结构减排和技术减排的视角来分析兰州市工业行业CO2排放状况和减排潜力。结果表明:2007~2011年,兰州市在结构减排方面成效不大,结构减排潜力依然很大;工业行业整体的碳排放强度较高,减排技术与全国平均水平差距较大,主要工业行业在技术减排层面潜力很大,并确定未来结构减排和技术减排的重点行业。在此基础上,提出工业行业CO2减排对策建议,为兰州市以及同类型城市发展低碳工业提供依据。     

不同类型技术进步的节能减排绩效及其动态变化

运用非参数SML生产率指数模型,测算了1994—2014年中国35个工业行业的基于绿色增长的技术进步,并采用面板模型对按能耗与碳排放分组的行业分别进行能耗强度和CO_2排放强度回归。结果表明:生产前沿的科技创新是推动中国工业绿色全要素生产率提高的主动力,前沿科技创新的节能降耗绩效最高,纯技术效率的CO_2减排绩效最高;技术进步的节能降耗效应与CO_2减排效应具有非对称性,技术进步的CO_2减排绩效大于其节能降耗绩效;能源消费结构调整的CO_2减排绩效大于其节能降耗绩效。     

“十二五”各省区CO2排放控制及减排压力评价

对中国各省区十二五期间的CO2排放控制量进行测算,分析了各区域减排的压力和国家整体目标的实现程度。在各省区完全执行国家减排分配方案的情况下,国家整体减排目标实现92%以上,十二五减排目标还不能完全实现。2015年全国30个省区CO2排放总量达到152亿t,十二五期间增加排放量40亿t。虽然排放强度目标设置为下降,但是2015年各省区CO2排放量在2010年基础上仍然有较大幅度的提升,增加量在数量上差异较大,分布上东部和北部地区的增加量高于其他地区。对比了各省区十一五期间的实际增量和十二五控制增量,发现沿海地区和华北地区减排压力较大,中西部和东北地区减排压力较小。在基期年和目标年,文章都具体分析了排放量、排放强度和排放增量的空间分布情况。最后针对计算过程和结果分析,提出了政策建议。     

Consequences of the IPPC’s BAT Requirements for Emissions and Abatement Costs: A DEA Analysis on Norwegian Data

The Integrated Pollution and Prevention Control (IPPC) directive from the European Union implies that regulatory emission caps shall be set in accordance with each industry’s Best Available Techniques (BAT). The directive, which represents a harmonization of environmental regulations towards a BAT principle, is currently being implemented in all the EU member states and the states associated with the European Economic Area. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of this implementation on emission reductions and costs, using data from Norwegian manufacturing industries. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to construct a frontier of all efficient installations. The frontier is based on all installations within an industry that use the Best Practice Technique (BPT). We estimate the changes in emissions due to the implementation of IPPC as the difference between an installation’s actual emissions and the emissions that would occur if it operated on the frontier. The method reveals a strong potential for emission reductions. Further, estimates of short-run abatement costs indicate that considerable emission reductions can be achieved with low or no costs, but that the implementation of a strict BAT principle for all installations involves substantial costs. To the extent that the abatement costs of an installation would be excessive, IPPC includes some limited modifications of the strict BAT principle. It seems important that these modifications are fully utilized by authorities to achieve the most cost efficient implementation of the directive.      

Impacts of EU carbon emission trade directive on energy-intensive industries — Indicative micro-economic analyses

The cost impacts from the European emission trading system (ETS) on energy-intensive manufacturing industries have been investigated. The effects consist of direct costs associated to the CO₂ reduction requirements stated in the EU Directive, and of indirect costs of comparable magnitude that originate from a higher electricity price triggered by the ETS in the power sector. The total cost impacts remain below 2% of the production value for most industries within the ETS in the Kyoto period. In the post-Kyoto phase assuming a 30% CO₂ reduction, the total cost impact may raise up to 8% of production value in the heaviest industry sectors. In steel and cement industries the cost impacts are 3-4 fold compared to the least affected pulp and paper and oil refining. Electricity-intensive industries outside the ETS will also be affected, for example in aluminum and chlorine production the indirect cost impacts from ETS could come up to 10% of production value already in the Kyoto period. As industry sectors are affected differently by the ETS some correcting mechanisms may be worthwhile to consider in securing the operation of the most electricity-intensive sectors, e.g. balancing taxation schemes that may include as income source a levy on the wind-fall profits of the power sector due to ETS. A future improvement in ETS for industries within the scheme could be scaling of the emission reduction requirement so that the relative total emission reduction costs are at about the same level.     

Static and dynamic efficiency of pollution control strategies

A great deal of the economic literature on pollution control strategies concentrates on the efficiency of environmental policy instruments. Most analytical studies in this field show that market instruments are more efficient with respect to the cost of pollution abatement of a given number of polluters than non-market instruments. According to several analytical studies, market instruments should also be more efficient with respect to innovation in pollution abatement equipment than non-market instruments. In the empirical literature a great number of case studies exist with estimations of the savings of abatement costs of market instruments in a situation without technological progress. Empirical studies about the impact of environmental policy market instruments on the abatement costs in situations with technological progress are lacking.The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap. The paper deals with an empirical estimation of abatement costs for the emission of SO₂ of coal-fired electricity units in the Netherlands from 1985 to 2000. First, the working of market instruments and non-market instruments (the existing environmental policy of the Dutch government) is simulated in a static situation. Second, we analyse the learning effects of flue gas desulphurization. The efficiency advantage of market instruments turns out to be larger in a situation of technological progress than in a static situation.     

经济结构、技术进步与环境污染——基于中国工业行业数据的分析

文章将环境污染的影响分解为规模效应、结构效应、纯生产技术效应、纯污染治理技术效应、混合技术效应、结构生产技术效应、结构治理技术效应和综合效应,并运用37个工业行业2001-2009年三种主要废气排放数据实证分析了工业经济结构和技术进步对工业废气减排的贡献,得到如下结论:纯生产技术效应、纯污染治理技术效应在减排过程中占据了主导地位;工业经济结构的变化对工业废气减排的作用效果不明显,相对2001年甚至还加剧了环境污染;结构生产技术效应和结构治理技术效应都对废气减排起到了促进作用,环境技术进步在一定程度上弥补了工业结构的不合理。     

The Impact of Productivity Growth on the Costs of Production in Australian Manufacturing Industries*

The primary objective of this study is to examine the impact of technological progress on costs of production in 34 Australian manufacturing industries. An analytical model incorporating the notion of factor-augmenting technological change was developed and applied to each industry. The results indicated that in most of the industries technological progress during the period 1954–55 to 1981–82 had been biased towards augmenting labour and thereby reducing the cost of labour per unit of production. The implication of the analysis is that there is a nexus between incomes policy and the rate and bias of factor-augmenting technological change.     

有偏技术进步对碳强度的影响及传导机制研究

本文通过构建包含资本、劳动和碳要素的超越对数函数模型，对中国30个省（市）技术进步偏向进行判别，通过构建多重中介效应模型，探究其影响碳排放强度的传导机制，并分析不同资源丰裕度下传导机制的异质性。主要结论：①碳要素偏向型技术进步和碳排放强度呈显著正相关，技术进步偏向碳节约型有助于推动碳减排。②碳要素偏向型技术进步可通过能源利用效率和经济发展水平中介效应间接影响碳排放强度。③资源型省（市）主要通过提高经济发展水平路径，而非资源型省（市）主要通过提高能源利用效率路径促进碳要素偏向型技术进步的减排效应。④碳要素偏向型技术进步的减排效应存在显著双门槛效应，能源利用效率越大、经济发展水平越高，碳要素偏向型技术进步对碳排放强度的影响越大。因此，需加大技术进步偏向碳要素节约的诱导力度，注意不同资源丰裕度下碳减排的不同路径，加强能源利用效率提高，推动经济绿色发展，助力“双碳”目标实现。     

The meta-technology cost ratio: An indicator for judging the cost performance of CO2 reduction

This paper constructs an innovative ratio of meta-technology cost (MTCR) by combining the meta-frontier framework and shadow price model. This ratio is not only an indicator to account for country-specific technology heterogeneity or technology heterogeneity across a group of countries to measure improvement toward the meta-frontier. This ratio also computes the absolute value difference between the real and ideal minimum marginal abatement costs for the non-market good CO₂ to achieve specific emission reduction. An equally weighted combination of technological readiness and innovation is used to classify countries into groups. The value of the MTCR via the computation of the meta marginal abatement cost (MAC^meta) and group marginal abatement cost (MAC^group-k) allows us to identify the possible improvement of marginal abatement cost (MAC) in absolute value. That is, observation of the MTCR, along with its components the MAC^meta and MAC^group-k, provides more intuitive and comprehensive information for commanding the cost performance of CO₂ reduction than the traditional meta-technology ratio alone.     

Technology elasticity and potential on energy saving and emission reduction: evidence from China

This article investigates the elasticity of different technology choices to energy efficiency and chemical oxygen demand/ammonia nitrogen emission reducing efficiency among 38 industries in China from 2008 to 2011. With data envelopment analysis, total-factor productivity growth, the common measure of technical progress, is divided into different parts: technical efficiency relative to the frontier, technology change and scale efficiency, which are regarded as three different choices of technological progress. For various industries, technology elasticity is quite different and the importance of different technical choices is diverse in the improvement of efficiency on energy saving and emission reduction. Policymakers could focus on the elasticity of different technical progress choices in various industries to improve energy and emission reduction efficiency.     

Optimal Timing of CCS Policies with Heterogeneous Energy Consumption Sectors

Using the Chakravorty et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 30:2875–2904, 2006) ceiling model, we characterize the optimal consumption paths of three energy resources: dirty oil, which is non-renewable and carbon emitting; clean oil, which is also non-renewable but carbon-free thanks to an abatement technology, and solar energy, which is renewable and carbon-free. The resulting energy-mix can supply the energy needs of two sectors. These sectors differ in the additional abatement cost they have to pay for consuming clean rather than dirty oil, as Sector 1 (industry) can abate its emissions at a lower cost than Sector 2 (transport). We show that it is optimal to begin by fully capturing Sector 1’s emissions before the ceiling is reached. Also, there may be optimal paths along which the capture devices of both sectors must be activated. In this case, Sector’s 1 emissions are fully abated first, before Sector 2 abates partially. Finally, we discuss the way heterogeneity of abatement costs causes sectoral energy price paths to differ.     

CO2 abatement policy with learning-by-doing in renewable energy

This paper analyzes the implications of CO₂ abatement when there is endogenous technological change in renewable energy. A multi-sector numerical general equilibrium model for Denmark is proposed to reflect two basic assumptions about technological progress in renewable energy. First, there is learning-by-doing and unit costs of production are a decreasing function of cumulated output. Second, technological progress only benefits new vintages of capital. The learning-by-doing process is calibrated to match current projections for technological progress in wind-based electricity. The implications are a marked reduction in the total and marginal cost of abatement and a decline in the optimal level of near-term abatement.