基于系统动力学的健康服务业发展对策研究

健康服务业是全球下一个兆亿明星产业,它的发展对于推动创新型经济、优化产业机构具有重要的意义。目前我国健康服务产业正处于发展初期,面临着诸多问题。通过对健康服务产业发展的动力要素及其作用机制的分析,运用系统动力学方法建立健康服务产业发展的系统动力学模型,最后基于反馈回路的分析提出我们应该从政府引导、技术创新、医疗改革以及人才管理等四方面进行努力。     

农民视角的西北地区集体林权改革政策研究——以陕西为例

文章基于问卷调查与田野调查的资料,从农民的视角考察了我国西北地区集体林权制度改革的若干重要问题。研究发现,农民对林改成效的评价与政策预期存在不小的差距;林权改革取得一定的社会效应,但是它的经济成效并不明显;林权改革既要体现农民本位和保障农民权益,也要关注村社权利和村庄整体福利的提升;林改政策执行出现了某些程度的偏差,需要引起高度重视。此外,要密切关注林改后的农民需求及其变化,努力建构以农民需求为导向的公共政策供给机制,促进改革不断向纵深发展。     

The effects of exposure to high temperatures during pregnancy on adolescent mental health: Evidence from China

This paper provides the first study to explore the relationship between exposure to ambient temperatures during pregnancy and adolescent mental health in China. The results show that experiencing one more hot day relative to local historical contemporaneous average values during pregnancy significantly increases the likelihood of mental health disorders in adolescence. The impact is larger in the first and second trimesters. Individuals born in the northern region and whose mothers work in agriculture are more vulnerable to high temperatures. Prenatal exposure to hot days is more harmful to the mental health of older adolescents. Additionally, the adverse effects are similar for both men and women and individuals with rural and urban hukou. Biological effects, income effects, and human capital accumulation might be three operative channels of the impact. These findings add to the evidence on the lasting health effects of early life exposure to climatic shocks and call for policy interventions during pregnancy.     

新时期我国户改新思路：基于政策创新的视角

改革开放以来,我国从中央到地方所进行的一系列户改探索不能简单地归纳为制度改革,更应该是政策创新。政策创新是公共管理思维的变迁所形成的新模式,基于政策创新模式,新时期我国户改既关注户籍政策内容的科学合理,又关注如何制定科学合理的户籍政策并使其发挥实效。新时期应着力从价值取向、创新主体、配套机制、法制化、政策学习等方面着手,加快推进我国户籍政策创新。     

How entrepreneurship could be promoted after the collapse of a socialist economic system

The purpose of this paper is to provide empirical observations from postcommunist countries to suggest which policy sets applied make most sense for the promotion of micro-enterprises. Three overall conclusions can be drawn. First, an early, comprehensive and radical reform is the superior approach for the promotion of entrepreneurship, because the prevalence of rent seeking interests is so easily established and it is so difficult to break. The second conclusion, however, is that a certain space for small enterprises can be created even in a very corrupt economy dominated by severe rent seeking. A third conclusion is that the Russian deregulation of 2002 represents the worst of all worlds, because all its elements were incremental.     

Foreign trade regimes and employment in South Africa: An intertemporal comparison

Previous research has suggested that the labour requirements of an import substitution policy compare unfavourably with a policy of export promotion for South Africa. This paper presents an alternative methodology. Using an open input/output model, more emphasis is placed on the backward linkages that trigger off spillover effects which result from a unit Increase in domestic value added ofexportables and importables. The results show that a broad import substitution policy is not less favourable in terms of employment generation than a broad export promotion policy. This could indicate that a policy of ‘inward industrialisation ‘, which relies to some extent on import substitution, might not have relatively unfavourable employment effects.     

Parental migration,educational achievement,and mental health of junior high school students in rural China

China's rapid development has led to an unprecedented increase in migration rates as an ever-growing number of rural residents migrate to urban areas to seek better job opportunities and help alleviate family poverty. Economic pressures and structural restrictions force many of these migrant workers to leave their children behind in their rural homes, which has led to the emergence and expansion of a new subpopulation in China: left-behind children (LBCs). This study examines the impacts of parental migration on the educational outcomes (specifically math achievement) and mental health (specifically anxiety) of LBCs using data covering 7495 children in a prefecture of Shaanxi Province (from three surveys conducted between 2012 and 2014). We distinguish between “both parents migrating,” “one parent migrating,” “only a father migrating,” and “only a mother migrating.” We also explore the impacts on male versus female LBCs. We find no significant impact of parental migration on the math achievement of LBCs. In terms of mental health, however, our results indicate that left-behind girls were negatively affected by one parent migrating, especially if the migrating parent was the father. The findings suggest that it may not be necessary for policy makers to design special programs to improve educational outcomes of LBCs in general. However, local committees, schools, and parents should pay particular attention to left-behind girls living with only one parent, as they may be more vulnerable to mental health problems than their peers.     

Land Reform and Farm Production in the Northern Uplands of Vietnam*

Economic theory suggests that increased tenure security will lead to increased productivity. However, existing literature on the relationship between land tenure and land productivity provides inconclusive evidence. The present paper analyzes the impact of land reform on chemical fertilizer use and land productivity of rural farms in the Northern Uplands of Vietnam using a panel dataset collected before and after land reform. The results show that land reform has positive effects on both chemical fertilizer use and land productivity, but the level of influence is different between land privatization and land titling. Relevant policy implications are thus derived for the promotion of farm production in the region.     

构建广西科技与开放互促战略体系及实施规划思考

该研究以地缘开放政策和科技政策组合驱动创新发展为目的,对广西以北部湾经济区进入深入调研,研究广西以北部湾经济区为代表特有的改革开放政策等基础优势条件,以之组合科技政策构建广西特有的科技与开放互促战略体系的取向;提出构建以一带一路市场、辐射地区产业转型升级、壮大科技产业群、推动北部湾城市群发展为导向的科技与开放互促战略体系及实施规划;为促进战略规划有效实施的对策措施。     

创新提升事业单位思想政治工作科学化水平

深化事业单位的改革是顺应社会主义市场经济发展的需要,而深化事业单位改革的一个重要方法可以从提升事业单位的思想政治工作科学化水平着手,在推进事业单位改革的过程中,我们需要将科学发展观中以人为本的内涵和事业单位的特点相结合,从而来创新提升事业单位思想政治工作科学化水平。改革的推进,需要调动起每一个人的主观能动性,提升职工的工作创造性和积极性,使思想政治工作呈现积极健康向上的特征。     

改革开放以来中小企业扶持政策文本分析

对改革开放以来我国政府出台的中小企业扶持政策进行文本分析。按时间顺序收集到由中央层面发布的中小企业扶持政策文件共211份，运用文本分析法，从文本类型、发文单位、政策主题及演进阶段等维度进行量化研究。研究发现：中小企业扶持政策演进经历了“恢复—探索—发展—密集”四个阶段，政策出台紧密结合国家形势和中小企业的发展需求；文本形式集中体现为规章、通知等，立法支持尚有缺失；扶持手段逐渐从初期的金融、财税及资金支持拓宽为系统化、社会化的创新创业支持，但支持力度有待提高。     

Pandemic (COVID‐19) Policy,Regional Cooperation and the Emerging Global Production Network†

In this paper, we explore the possible policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic shock as well as the related economic (financial crisis) shocks on trade and global value chains (GVC) in East Asia. We find that regional policy coordination is critical to mitigate and isolate the pandemic shock. It is important to identify the pandemic events early to flatten the pandemic curve at the national and regional level. This supports a recent study by the World Bank (2020), which highlights the importance of early mitigation policies during the pandemic shock. The cost of the pandemic and economic shocks will increase significantly when several countries in the region experience the pandemic shock concurrently. In this case, flattening the regional pandemic curve becomes important. The results also indicate the need for greater coordination in East Asia to mitigate the pending economic shock in terms of unemployment, corporate bankruptcy and financial market fragility. The paper also highlights that the stability of the GVC network is critical during the pandemic in terms of hedging the risk of disruptions to the procurement of critical medical and health products as well as maintaining service linkages to manufacturing, such as the logistics sector. Regional policy coordination and the stability of GVC will be valuable in the post‐pandemic recovery of the region.     

If You Build It Nearby and Keep the Price Low,Will They Come? Large-Scale Evidence on the Relative Roles of Access and Quality in Use of Healthcare in Low-and Middle-Income Countries

Health policy reform often emphasises improving access to healthcare. Recent studies highlight the role healthcare quality plays in determining which health providers individuals use and health outcomes. Yet, there is little standardised large-scale evidence on the importance of quality of care relative to access in determining healthcare use. This paper examines the relative roles of access and quality in whether individuals seek healthcare and how these vary with socioeconomic status in a sample of over 250,000 national household survey respondents from low- and middle-income countries. My results suggest that quality is as large a barrier as access. Among quality barriers, drug availability is as large a barrier as provider availability. Analyses of the barriers-socioeconomic status gradients indicate that the quality-SES gradient is much less steep than the access-SES gradient, highlighting that increasing incomes may not be sufficient to address quality barriers and that supply-side interventions may be necessary.     

Early Experience and Later Outcomes of Education: Schooling Transition Evidence from Indonesia

This paper investigates the effect of early school experience on later educational attainment. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we find that students who repeat a grade at primary school are less likely to progress to junior high school. We also find that grade retention is associated with lower rates of transition from junior high school to senior high school. The relationship persists across years and samples. Meanwhile, the age of students when starting school and the hours they spend there have limited effects on whether they continue their schooling. We also observe that the effects of parental education and household income on the transition of students from primary school to junior high school are weakening. Given the long-term impact of grade retention, policymakers should be cautious when recommending it for underachieving children and should look for alternatives.     

Salaires et mobilité de l'emploi des professionnels de santé dans les milieux urbains du Cameroun

The objective of this study was to analyse the influence of wages on health professionals' job mobility. Based on health professionals data collected in urban areas of Cameroon, a binomial logit model was estimated. Our results show that wages are negatively correlated with the likelihood of health professionals to consider an imminent departure from the current health facility for another job in or outside the health sector. The increase of one unit of the residual potential wage gain decreases the probability to consider a voluntary departure from the current job of 4 per cent to 8 per cent for another job in the health sector or outside. Wage improvement can then be considered as a retention policy of health professionals in their current health facility. This strategy can be used to curb the migration problems of health professionals and strengthen a health system which is already suffering the pangs of the human resource crisis for health. However, this wage improvement strategy expresses the complexity of retention policies for health professionals based on wages in the public sector, as it can induce adverse effects linked to the loss of human resources.     

社会阶层认知分化的实证研究——基于有序Probit面板模型的估计

文章基于2012与2014年中国劳动力动态调查数据,利用有序Probit面板模型对我国劳动力社会阶层认知分化进行影响因素分析。实证显示,具有先赋性和自致性因素优势的个体更倾向于作出较高的阶层认知;主观认知因素显著影响劳动力的社会阶层认知,"相对剥离感"不利于阶层认知的提升。上述结论关于主观认知解释变量的内生性和有序模型的非正态性设定都是稳健的。此外,这些因素对劳动力社会阶层认知分化的边际概率影响具有一定的地区差异性。这些结果对我们正确评估社会转型期的代际传承、弱势群体生存状态、青年人职业选择、劳动力身心健康等都具有政策意义。     

Do Adolescents with Emotional or Behavioral Problems Respond to Cigarette Prices?

Adolescents with mental health problems have much higher rates of smoking than those without such problems. Although a large body of evidence suggests that higher cigarette prices reduce smoking prevalence and the quantity smoked, little is known about the interaction between mental health or behavioral problems and tobacco consumption in the general population or among adolescents. Using a national representative sample of adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health and employing validated psychiatric measures of emotional distress and behavioral problems, we estimate the price elasticity of cigarette demand for adolescents who have behavioral or emotional problems. The results indicate that these adolescents are at least as responsive to cigarette prices as adolescents with no emotional or behavioral problems.     

Estimating Cost Functions of Malaysian Commercial Banks: The Differential Effects of Size,Location, and Ownership*

Bank integration and competition policies are a core part of current financial reforms intended to strengthen the financial sector in Malaysia. This paper intends to clarify the production technology employed in Malaysian banks and indicate important policy implications for current bank consolidation policy. While it is essential to conduct a microeconomic analysis of the banking sector to appraise financial reform policy, Katib and Mathews (2000) is the only formal study in this area that uses micro level data on Malaysian banks. Our analysis expands on Katib and Mathews’ study in three aspects. Firstly, while Katib and Mathews employed Data Envelopment Analysis, we use estimation analysis based on a parametric approach. Secondly, we examine technological differences among Malaysian banks according to the size of operations, location of branches and ownership structure. Thirdly, we also explicitly incorporate the existence of hidden bad loans in estimating cost functions. According to our estimation analysis, there is a difference in production technology between large‐sized banks and small or medium‐sized banks. While economies of scale are observed for large‐sized banks, no economies of scope and technological progress are observed for any banks. The results of our analysis suggest that, while the current reform policy is basically appropriate, serious problems remain regarding bank consolidation and the lack of market competition.     

The performance and support of food gardens in some townships of the Cape Metropolitan Area: An evaluation of Abalimi Bezekhaya

Drawing on an evaluation of the gardening promotion activities of Abalimi Bezekhaya, a gardening organisation operating in the townships of the Cape Metropolitan Area, this article puts forward recommendations and policy directives for the development of urban agricultural initiatives. Field research, undertaken with gardeners in the townships, utilised participatory methodologies to elicit their opinions and gain insight into their motivations for gardening, the various constraints they face, and their opinion of the services provided by Abalimi Bezekhaya. From these exercises, recommendations were made to the organisation on how it could improve its services to the communities. In addition, the evaluation revealed that urban agriculture offers gardeners an opportunity to become involved in a development strategy which holds tremendous potential and which can expand into an entrepreneurial activity, if due attention is paid to issues of policy, agricultural development, land reform and the creation of livelihoods.     

要素配置、产业发展与产业结构——基于政府主导的产业发展战略视角

文章构造了理论模型分析政府主导的发展战略通过影响资本和劳动力的配置,从而影响产业发展以及产业结构调整,并利用1984-2015年省际数据实证检验了发展战略对于产业发展以及产业结构调整的影响效应。结果发现,产业发展战略提升了各产业的资本深化程度,对于中国产业发展以及产业结构有很大的主导作用。具体来说,产业发展战略促进了各产业的发展,对第二产业发展的促进效应最大,并且产业的发展存在内部滞后效应;发展战略可以显著地促进产业结构高级化,但是对于产业结构合理化和有效产业结构存在负向作用,即不利于资本-劳动在产业中的配置以及经济增长的结构效应,同时,产业结构调整也存在明显的滞后效应。