债券违约对流动性影响的传染效应研究

2014年以来我国信用债市场违约事件频发,信用风险的积聚可能引发债券市场流动性恶化。本文以2014―2019年交易所和银行间市场信用债为研究对象,实证考察违约事件对债券流动性影响的传染效应。研究发现:违约事件在同一发行主体的债券之间具有流动性传染效应,当公司的某期债券出现违约时,公司其他未到期债券的流动性水平显著下降;违约事件对同行业其他公司债券的流动性具有传染效应,当行业中出现债券违约事件时,行业内其他公司的债券流动性显著降低;违约事件爆发越密集或者违约事件越严重,对债券流动性的负面影响越大,而且民营企业债受到的影响要大于国有企业债,低信用等级债受到的影响要大于高信用等级债;在市场密集爆发违约事件或出现较为严重的违约事件时期,宏观流动性增加能够改善债券流动性。     

The role of ESG scoring and greenwashing risk in explaining the yields of green bonds: A conceptual framework and an econometric analysis

This article aims to investigate the factors that most influence the yields of public sector and corporate green bonds besides those conveyed by the conventional finance theory (e.g., rating, volatility, maturity). To accomplish that, we first develop a theoretical framework that postulates the negative relationship between the size of the underlying project financed by a green bond issuance, the use of the ESG metrics to quantify such impact, as well as the positive relationship between the risk of greenwashing practices by the issuer, and the yield to maturity of the green bond. We then provide an empirical validation of our conceptual framework by estimating multiple regression models applied to two distinct samples of public and corporate green bonds issued globally in the 2012–2020 period. The reliability of our results is confirmed by further exploring the effects of some key determinants on the yield spread of green versus comparable ordinary bonds of corporate issuers. Our findings corroborate our theoretical predictions showing that investors are inclined to accept lower returns in exchange for contributing to the funding of infrastructure projects with greater impact on the sustainability of target communities or territories and require higher premia as a form of compensation when being exposed to higher risk of greenwashing by issuers. At corporate level, greenwashing risk is higher among manufacturing (rather than services) firms but more pronounced in the financial sector. At public level, greenwashing strategies may be more easily pursued by multinational or sovereign issuers rather than local governments as the former's greater distance from communities enables them to elude investors' controls. Important recommendations are drawn for investors, rating agencies, and policymakers.     

Municipal Disclosure Timeliness and the Cost of Debt

A longstanding concern for municipal bond investors is the lack of timely financial statement disclosures. Municipalities are held to lower disclosure standards than corporations. Using continuing disclosure dates for audited financial statements, we find bond issuers with slower disclosure have higher secondary market yields and spreads, less frequent secondary market trading, and are less likely to issue new bonds. We observe that future disclosure is largely predictable based on past disclosure and that disclosure often improves prior to new bond issuances. When municipalities do not capitalize on the benefits of timely disclosure, economic consequences are imposed on bondholders and taxpayers.     

The Effect of Credit Ratings on Disclosure: Evidence from the Recalibration of Moody's Municipal Ratings

This paper examines how credit rating levels affect municipal debt issuers’ disclosure decisions. Using exogenous upgrades in credit rating levels caused by the recalibration of Moody's municipal ratings scale in 2010, we find that upgraded municipalities significantly reduce their disclosure of required continuing financial information, relative to unaffected municipalities. Consistent with a reduction in debtholders’ demand for information driving these results, the reduction in disclosure is greater when municipal bonds are held by investors who relied more on disclosure ex ante. However, we also find that the reduction in disclosure does not manifest when issuers are monitored by underwriters with greater issuer-specific expertise and when issuers are subject to direct regulatory enforcement through the receipt of federal funding. Overall, our results suggest that higher credit rating levels lower investor demand for disclosure in the municipal market, and highlight the role of underwriters and direct regulatory enforcement in maintaining disclosure levels when investor demand is low.     

Market Segmentation and the Cost of Capital in a Domestic Market: Evidence from Municipal Bonds

We study the implications of market segmentation in a domestic setting, the US municipal bond market. A (state‐level) segmentation of this market emerges from asymmetric tax exemption. Municipal bond investors are exempt from state and local taxes on bonds issued by their own state, but not on bonds issued by other states. We demonstrate that market segmentation imposes significant costs on both issuers and investors in the form of higher yields and higher costs of financial intermediation. Our results provide insight into some well‐documented artifacts of the municipal bond market, such as high yields and the popularity of insurance.     

Explaining green bond issuance using survey evidence: Beyond the greenium

The paper examines the drivers and challenges of issuing green bonds from the perspective of green bond issuers. Using survey evidence of global issuers representing 29% of total green bond issuances, the research shows that reputational benefits, the market signalling power of green bonds and a desire to curb climate change are the main motives for green bond issuance. In contrast, insufficient market evolvement, and a lack of awareness and suitable green projects represent the biggest barriers for entry to the green bond market. Most respondents consider green bond issuance costs to be higher than those of comparable plain vanilla bonds, but acceptable due to the benefits they derive from green bond issuances. Among these benefits, respondents report higher levels of demand for green bonds, higher levels of investor engagement, diversification of their investor base and a strengthened internal commitment to sustainability. Issuers' experiences vary regarding the pricing of green bonds – with 48% of respondents stating that their green bond funding costs are the same as for their plain vanilla bonds and 42% reporting lower green bond funding costs. Most issuers favour a standardisation of the definition of ‘green’ for determining which projects can be funded via green bonds.     

Why do institutional investors buy green bonds: Evidence from a survey of European asset managers

Using survey evidence from European asset managers, we provide insights into their green bond investment activities and the factors that affect their investment decisions. We find that the majority of investors are actively invested in the green bond market via a variety of investment channels. Investors prefer green bonds issued from corporate issuers and sovereigns and we find that there is strong unmet investor demand for green bonds from these issuer types, in particular from non-financial corporates in the industrials, automotive and utilities sectors. Competitive pricing and strong green credentials, both pre- and post-issuance, are the most frequently named factors impacting respondents' decision to invest in a green bond, and unclear and poor reporting on how bond proceeds are allocated to green projects induces a majority of investors to not invest in a green bond or to sell a bond if already included in the portfolio. Among policy measures to grow the green bond market, preferential capital treatment for low-carbon assets and minimum standards for green definitions receive the highest investor support, but respondents are divided whether a strict definition of ‘green’ or a less strict definition would be more beneficial for scaling up the green bond market.     

Corporate Fraud and Corporate Bond Costs: Evidence from China

This study investigates the relationship between corporate fraud and four typical components of costs associated with corporate bonds. Based on data from a booming corporate bond market in China, we confirm that fraudulent issuers have higher corporate bond costs. Specifically, they are more likely to push upward price revisions, pay higher issue fees and coupon spreads, and encounter larger underpricing after issuance. Moreover, we demonstrate that severe corporate fraud is also significantly related to the costs of corporate bonds. Furthermore, we find that investors pay more attention to fraud in accounting information and disclosure. These results remain robust to a strand of endogeneity and through the robustness tests. In additional research, we find that bonds issued by fraudulent firms tend to receive lower ratings and show inferior performance after issuance. We also demonstrate that the effects of corporate fraud on bond costs erode as time passes, although the mitigation speed is slow. Finally, we find that hiring reputable financial intermediaries can partially mitigate the negative effects of corporate fraud.     

The impact of narrative disclosure readability on bond ratings and the cost of debt

Prior research on the determinants of credit ratings has focused on rating agencies’ use of quantitative accounting information, but the there is scant evidence on the impact of textual attributes. This study examines the impact of financial disclosure narrative on bond market outcomes. We find that less readable financial disclosures are associated with less favorable ratings, greater bond rating agency disagreement, and a higher cost of debt. We improve causal identification by exploiting the 1998 Plain English Mandate, which required a subset of firms to exogenously improve the readability of their filings. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the firms required to improve the readability of their filings experience more favorable ratings, lower bond rating disagreement, and lower cost of debt. Collectively, our evidence suggests that textual financial disclosure attributes appear to not only influence bond market intermediaries’ opinions but also firms’ cost of debt.     

Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis

We analyze liquidity components of corporate bond spreads during 2005-2009 using a new robust illiquidity measure. The spread contribution from illiquidity increases dramatically with the onset of the subprime crisis. The increase is slow and persistent for investment grade bonds while the effect is stronger but more short-lived for speculative grade bonds. Bonds become less liquid when financial distress hits a lead underwriter and the liquidity of bonds issued by financial firms dries up under crises. During the subprime crisis, flight-to-quality is confined to AAA-rated bonds.     

Multimarket trading and corporate bond liquidity

Global bonds are international securities traded and settled efficiently in multiple markets. This paper examines global bonds to evaluate the effects of multimarket trading on corporate bond liquidity and pricing. The results show that global bonds are significantly more liquid than similar-sized domestic bonds of the same issuers, and their liquidity advantage is reflected in higher market valuations. These findings support microstructure models that predict a positive relation between the number of potential investors and liquidity in over-the-counter markets, and help explain the increasing use of global bonds by corporate issuers.     

The price of carbon risk: Evidence from China’s bond market

Using a 2009–2019 sample of Chinese bond issuers, we examine the effect of carbon risk on bond financing costs. Relative to low carbon risk issuers, high carbon risk issuers have substantially larger bond credit spreads, mainly because their credit risk is greater and they invest the funds in non-green projects. This positive relationship is more pronounced for issuers with financing constraints, those not making a green transition and those in cities with stringent environmental regulations. We find a reversed effect during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, China’s carbon peak and carbon neutral goals have renewed the focus on carbon risk. Carbon risk also causes bond issuers to scale back production and negatively affects their likelihood of receiving long-term financial support. Our findings suggest that investors consider carbon risk and charge a corresponding risk premium.     

YANKEE BONDS AND CROSS-BORDER PRIVATE PLACEMENTS: AN UPDATE

With U.S. Treasury yields near historical lows and the recent relaxation of U.S. regulatory reporting requirements, the U.S. bond markets are more and more frequently the markets of choice for international issuers. Total crossborder U.S. bond issuance is expected to top $350 billion in 2000, easily surpassing previous issuance levels.
Overseas issuers have three primary forms through which they can participate in the U.S. long-term debt markets: publicly traded, SEC-registered bonds (commonly known as "Yankee" bonds); traditional private placements; and underwritten Rule 144A private placements. Each of these three financing methods has distinct benefits and limitations that should be thoroughly evaluated in light of the specific objectives of the issuer. Yankee bonds are typically the most cost efficient vehicle for large, investment grade issuers, and they are expected to account for over 75% of the $350 billion market in 2000. Second in importance is the rule 144A market, which is typically used for complex structures requiring heavy rating-agency involvement, such as future financial flow transactions and project financings. The 144A market has also become a particular favorite with international issuers because of its less formal disclosure requirements and streamlined execution process. The private placement market continues to be the dominant choice of smaller issuers, companies with complicated "stories," and firms that do not wish to submit to regular scrutiny by rating agencies. This article provides a detailed analysis of each type of bond issuance and the issues facing a financial officer in trying to determine the most appropriate source of long-term debt.     

Green bond vs conventional bond: Outline the rationale behind issuance choices in China

Increasingly serious ecological problems have generated considerable focus on environmental-friendly green bonds. Although it has been experiencing rapid development, the rationales behind its issuance remained largely unexplored. This paper makes an initial discussion based on China. We analyze the roles of potential factors that might affect issuers to choose between green or conventional bonds, as well as identify the confrontational combinations of the statistically significant determinants. A sample of green and matching conventional corporate bond issuance records since 2016 is studied through the binary choice regressions (Probit and Logit) and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fs-QCA). The results demonstrate different motives and premises drive firms to choose green or conventional bonds when using debt financing. This choice can be eventually attributed to the financing demand and the preference of issuers. The factors related to bonds' specific characteristics, issuers' financial features, and external ambience conditions might play significant roles in this decision process. Additionally, we summarized three causal paths affecting the green bond issuance choice. Overall, this paper provides a knowledge basis for targeted encouraging green bond issuance, some corresponding implications are also concluded.     

Sovereign risk premiums in the European government bond market

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU government bonds on the basis of a unique data set of issue spreads in the US and DM (Euro) bond market between 1993 and 2009. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premiums which increase with fiscal imbalances and depend negatively on the issuer’s relative bond market size. The start of the European Monetary Union has shifted market attention to deficit and debt service payments as key measures of fiscal soundness and eliminated liquidity premiums in the euro area. With the financial crisis, the cost of loose fiscal policy has increased considerably.     

Yankee Bonds and Cross-Border Private Placements

With credit spreads and U.S. Treasury yields near historical lows and the recent relaxation of U.S. regulatory reporting requirements, the U.S. bond markets are more and more frequently the markets of choice for international issuers. Total cross-border U.S. bond issuance is expected to top $200 billion in 1997, easily surpassing previous issuance levels.
Overseas issuers have three primary forms through which they can participate in the U.S. long-term debt markets: publicly traded, SEC registered bonds (commonly known as "Yankee" bonds); traditional private placements; and underwritten Rule 144A private placements. Each of these three financing methods has distinct benefits and limitations that should be thoroughly evaluated in light of the specific objectives of the issuer. Yankee bonds are typically the most cost-efficient vehicle for large, investment-grade issuers. The fastest growing segment is the rule 144A market, which accounted for 38% (by number, not dollar volume) of all U.S. cross-border debt transactions in 1996. The Rule 144A structure is often used for complex structures requiring heavy rating-agency involvement, such as future financial flow transactions and project financings. The 144A market has also become a particular favorite with international issuers because of its less formal disclosure requirements and streamlined execution process. The private placement market, which accounted for 24% of cross-border transactions in 1996, continues to be the dominant choice of smaller issuers, companies with complicated "stories," and firms that do not wish to submit to regular scrutiny by rating agencies. This article provides a detailed analysis of each type of bond issuance and the related issues facing a financial officer in trying to determine the most appropriate source of long-term debt.     

Quantify the quantitative easing: Impact on bonds and corporate debt issuance

This paper studies the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP) announcement on prices, liquidity, and debt issuance in the European corporate bond market using a data set on bond transactions from Euroclear. I find that the quantitative easing (QE) programme increased prices and liquidity of bonds eligible to be purchased substantially. Bond yields dropped on average by 30 basis points (bps) (8%) after the CSPP announcement. Tri-party repo turnover rose by 8.15 million USD (29%), and bilateral turnover went up by 7.05 million USD (72%). Bid-ask spreads also showed significant liquidity improvement in eligible bonds. QE was successful in boosting corporate debt issuance. Firms issued 2.19 billion EUR (25%) more in QE-eligible debt after the CSPP announcement, compared to other types of debt. Surprisingly, corporates used the attracted funds mostly to increase dividends. These effects were more pronounced for longer-maturity, lower-rated bonds, and for more credit-constrained, lower-rated firms.     

Conditional conservatism and the yield spread of corporate bond issues

Building upon recent research which indicates that debt markets rather than equity markets shape financial reporting, this study examines how conditionally conservative financial reporting relates to the yield spread of corporate bond issues. Our findings suggest that the debt contract efficiency/information costs view of conditional conservatism, documented in private debt contracts, does not generalize to public debt contracts. Instead, a debt contract renegotiation costs perspective seems to better capture the dynamics of the public debt markets, with conditionally conservative reporting being associated with higher yield spread of corporate bond issues. Additional subsample test results indicate that the association between conditional conservatism and bond yield spreads is more pronounced in non-investment grade bonds, for bond issuers with more financial distress, and for bonds that are issued before the passage of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act. This study fills a gap in the conservatism literature, which focuses primarily on equity or private bank loan markets with traditional debt contract efficiency/information costs view.     

Do green financial policies offset the climate transition risk penalty imposed on long-term sovereign bond yields?

Asset valuations in high-carbon sectors face significant corrections due to climate risks. This paper specifically analyses whether markets impose a penalty on long-term sovereign bonds issued by countries facing higher climate-related transition risk while rewarding those that have implemented green financial policies to mitigate these risks. We find that higher carbon dioxide emissions and a lower sustainable development score (both proxies for transition risks) lead to an increase in long-term sovereign bond yields. However, the presence of green financial policies appears to offset this climate transition risk premium.     

How much can illiquidity affect corporate debt yield spread?

We present a structural method for measuring the upper bound for the illiquidity risk of liabilities issued by a levered firm. The method calculates the upper bound of illiquidity spread of a corporate bond given its duration and the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio. Consistent with the empirical literature the illiquidity spread is positively related to the issuing firm’s asset risk and leverage ratio and the illiquidity component increases with a bond’s credit quality. The term structure of illiquidity spread has a humped shape, where its maximum level depends on the firm’s leverage ratio. Finally, we demonstrate how the method’s implied restricted trading period can be used as a measure for illiquidity in the bonds’ market.