中国金融市场与房地产投资的协整和Granger检验

本文通过对中国1985～2005年金融资产和房地产投资的年度数据进行协整和Granger因果关系检验,发现以金融资产为指标的金融市场和房地产投资之间存在长期和短期的均衡关系及单向因果关系,即金融资产的增加极大地促进了房地产投资总额的增加。     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm’s cash holding in China: The key role of asset reversibility

This paper investigates how asset reversibility affects the sensitivity of firm’s cash holding to economic policy uncertainty in China. Using the 2012 national input-output table for 139 industries, we measure the industry-level asset reversibility and match them with nonfinancial publicly listed firms over 2007−2017. The results show that asset reversibility has a significant and negative effect on the positive uncertainty-cash holding sensitivity, especially for firms with more severe financial constraints. Furthermore, we find that firms with higher asset reversibility invest more in fixed assets, suggesting that real investment is an important mechanism. In addition, baseline results are robust to potential endogeneity and alternative measures of asset reversibility and economic policy uncertainty. Our findings reveal that asset market friction is a critical determinant of firm’s cash holding.     

Labor allocation in transition: Evidence from Chinese rural households

Empirical models are developed in this paper to quantitatively analyze households' participation in decisions on hiring labor and supplying labor off the farm, hired labor demand and off-farm labor supply of rural Chinese households. Econometric estimates use micro-level data from Zhejiang province over the period 1995–2002. The main results suggest that the decisions to hire labor and participate off the farm are made jointly and are positively correlated. A household's labor demand decreases with increasing wages for hired labor, whereas the effect of the wages of off-farm workers on a household's labor supply differs significantly depending on the household's kind of labor market participation. The results also indicate that the accumulation of productive assets, the development of livestock production and agricultural prices have increasing effects on labor demand but reducing effects on a household's off-farm labor supply. Land market integration enhances participation significantly but has no significant impact on time allocation. Finally, the results suggest non-separability between hired labor demand and household characteristics, indicating the rural labor market in Zhejiang province is still functioning imperfectly.     

Rebalancing in China: A taxation approach

The rebalancing of the Chinese economy is analyzed through a heterogeneous taxation of various types of firms. Based on a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model, the paper applies tax reforms to raise consumption, reduce some firms' overinvestment (overcapacities) and maintain a high level of welfare.To rebalance consumption and investment, taxation may allow reallocating a part of the labor force to firms that are not overinvesting (via business taxes and social security contributions). Moreover, the correction of distortions in production factor costs (capital and labor) is necessary during certain reforms applied in the model; that is, on the one hand, higher credit costs for firms that face soft budget constraints (via financial transactions taxes) and, on the other hand, a catch-up of foreign firms' wages by domestic firms (via social security contributions).These tax reforms bring welfare benefits to households and stabilize the welfare reaction to productivity shocks. Another interesting result is that in this framework, the rebalancing of the domestic demand in China does not require the readjustment of the external financial position. Indeed, the aggregate savings rate remains high and the supply of domestic assets is reduced.Finally, another model proposes a heterogeneous taxation of consumption across home and foreign goods to enhance consumption.     

Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Chinese Manufacturing Firms' Financialization and Servitization

This study examines the impact of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on Chinese manufacturing firms' financialization and servitization. Using a difference-in-differences approach with propensity score matching, we found that OFDI encouraged firms' financial and service activities. The effects of OFDI on financialization were stronger for firms specializing in short-term financial assets, operating in labor and technology-intensive sectors, investing overseas to pursue production, resources and markets there, and investing in non-OECD and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Meanwhile, firms investing overseas were more likely to provide services at the sale or postsale stages. Outward foreign direct investment has also boosted the service activities of firms operating in the technology-intensive sector by investing overseas to seek resources and markets, as well as investing in non-OECD and BRI countries. Finally, OFDI partially influenced the extent of financialization and servitization of firms by affecting their profit-making ability.     

The Manpower Law of 2003 and its implementing regulations: Genesis,key articles and potential impact

This paper reviews Indonesia's Manpower Law 13/2003 and related regulations, against a backdrop of slow employment growth, business concerns about the legislation and government attempts to change it in 2006. The paper focuses on severance rates and dismissals, short-term contracts and out-sourcing, and minimum wages, also briefly discussing other articles, and comparing the law with those in neighbouring countries. It suggests that certain articles have contributed to significantly higher wage costs and reduced flexibility in the management of labour in Indonesia's formal sector, even though compliance is by no means universal within the private sector. Key provisions, especially large increases in severance rates, and needs criteria imposed for the purpose of setting minimum wages, are also out of step with labour market policies in other developing countries. Circumstantial evidence suggests that these measures have adversely affected the investment climate and damaged prospects for a recovery in employment.     

A hallmark of India’s new economic policy:: deregulation and liberalization of the financial sector

A fundamental job of the financial sector of any economy is to allocate capital efficiently. To achieve this, capital is supposed to be invested in the sectors that are expected to have high returns and be withdrawn from sectors with poor prospects. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the validity of this proposition in the context of financial liberalization in India. We first examine whether the total funds (debt and equity) available for investment started flowing to the “more efficient” (defined later), Indian firms due to financial liberalization. We examine changes in the allocation of credit across industrial sectors and changes in the allocation of capital among firms within the same sector or industry. Our empirical analysis shows that during the early years of financial liberalization the share of investment going to the more efficient firms did not rise, resulting in no perceptible rise in the overall efficiency of investment allocation for the economy. Our analysis of the sources and uses of funds shows that in the period immediately following the announcement of liberalization in 1991, there was a tendency in the Indian corporate sector towards a myopic use of funds. The surge in the availability of funds in the stock market, coming mainly from small and medium savers, failed to translate itself into any noticeable rise in gross fixed assets (GFAs). Thus, the lack of an improvement in the index of efficiency of investment allocation can be partly ascribed to bad investments to begin with. The message that emerges is that financial reforms in an inadequate regulatory framework do not necessarily have positive effects.     

Analysts' Interpretation and Investors' Valuation of Tax Carryforwards*

We examine how financial analysts and equity investors incorporate information on deferred taxes from carryforwards into earnings forecasts and share prices. We focus on carryforwards because, in providing this information each period, management must use their private information about the firm's profitability prospects. Thus, accounting measurement of tax carryforwards is another way of providing a management earnings forecast. In analyzing the role of carryforwards in valuation, we distinguish between two conflicting effects. First, deferred taxes from carryforwards represent future tax savings; hence, they should be valued positively as assets. In contrast, the existence of tax carryforwards may signal a higher likelihood of future losses, which would have a negative effect on expected earnings and share prices. We find that analysts consider earnings of firms with carryforwards to be less persistent because of the increased likelihood of future losses. We also find that analysts tend to be less precise and more optimistic (biased) in forecasting earnings of firms with carryforwards. This higher optimism and lower precision are more pronounced just after firms adopt Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SPAS) 109 and are almost entirely corrected over time. An analysis of investors' valuation indicates a strong positive relation between deferred taxes from carryforwards and share prices, suggesting that these carryforwards are valued as assets. Also, earnings and book values of equity are valued less in firms that have carryforwards than in firms without carryforwards. Finally, the valuation allowance required under SFAS 109 assists equity investors in valuing a firm's earnings and net assets. The combined findings on analysts' interpretation and investors' valuation suggest that analysts fail to fully capture the implication of carryforwards on future earnings within their forecasting horizon.     

Tax Incentives and Maturity Mismatch between Investment and Financing: Evidence from China

This paper examines the effects of China's accelerated depreciation policy (ADP) on the maturity mismatch between investment and financing. Using panel data for China's A-share nonfinancial listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and a staggered difference-in-differences approach, we found the following. First, ADP significantly aggravated the degree of corporate maturity mismatch, and this result was robust across multiple checks. Second, due to an insufficient long-term loan supply, firms had to finance the fixed investments induced by ADP with short-term debts, leading to maturity mismatches. Third, the positive policy effects were mainly significant for firms with high policy exposure, high-risk preferences, a high degree of information asymmetry, and firms with weak long-term financing capacity. Finally, maturity mismatch exacerbated corporate financial risks. Our research findings indicate that passive maturity mismatch is prevalent among Chinese companies and emphasize the need to address financial repression in order to mitigate the potential financial risks that may arise from tax incentives.     

Labor Market Distortions in Côte d'Ivoire: Analyses of Employer‐Employee Data from the Manufacturing Sector*

Abstract: This paper investigates the extent and nature of distortions in the labor market in the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire by using quantile regression analysis on employer‐employee data from the manufacturing sector. We found that the labor markets in Côte d'Ivoire do not seem to be much distorted. Unions may influence employment through tenure but do not seem to influence wages directly except for vulnerable minorities that seem protected by unions. Establishment‐size wage effects are pronounced and highest for white‐collar workers. This may be explained by the efficiency wage theory, so that, even in the absence of unions, segmentation and inefficiencies will still be present as long as firms seek to retain their employees by paying wages above the market clearing level. The inefficiency arising from establishment‐size wage effects can be mitigated by education. Furthermore, the premium to education is found highly significantly positive only for higher education, and not for basic education, indicating that educational policies should also focus on higher education.     

Expansionary monetary policy and credit allocation: Evidence from China

We identify the impact of expansionary monetary policy in China during the 2008–2009 global financial crisis on the credit and investment allocation among firms. We obtain robust evidence that expansionary monetary policy led to the misallocation of bank credit to less productive firms after controlling for confounding factors. However, we find that investment increased more for more productive firms. Additional analyses show that this occurred partly because more productive firms hoarded cash before the crisis, and partly because less productive firms invested more in financial assets.     

Financing and monitoring in an emerging economy: Can investment efficiency be increased?

This study investigates the influence of the financial system on firms' investment efficiency in China. For this purpose, we employ country level data of capital markets and financial institutions along with financial data from 2797 Chinese firms in the period from 1998 to 2015. The firms are priori classified into four groups, by high and low values of financial constraints and agency problems. Results show that financial development influences firms' investments positively either directly or by reducing cash flow sensitivity. The impact remains the same for all types of firms. Moreover, the financial structure has an impact on investment efficiency of firms; this result also remains the same even after controlling levels of financial development. Study contributes that capital market based financial structure impacts investment decisions by reducing financing constraints and agency issue due to its strong monitoring ability.     

内部控制、法制水平与实体企业金融化——基于2011—2020年沪深A股制造业上市公司经验数据

近年来，随着资本市场的逐步审慎开放，中国金融业得到了快速发展，而实体经济则随着中国经济转向高质量发展阶段而增速放缓，实体企业基于“蓄水池”效应和“投资替代”效应而不断扩大金融投资，使得企业金融化现象成为学术界关注的焦点问题。系统研究内外部治理对实体企业金融化的作用有利于实体企业“脱虚向实”。基于2011—2020年沪深A股制造业上市公司财务数据，将其金融资产占比连续3年及以上增加界定为金融化，从内外部治理视角探究其对实体企业金融化的影响，最终发现，内部控制质量对实体企业金融化有抑制作用，并且法制水平增强了内部控制质量对实体企业金融化的抑制作用。最后提出抑制企业金融化的建议。     

Economic geography and inequality in China: Did improved market access widen spatial wage differences?

New economic geography (NEG) models predict that costly transport and the spatial distribution of demand affect the profits firms can earn in different locations, leading to higher wages for workers employed in cities with better geographic access to markets. In light of the ongoing economic integration and market reforms that occurred in China after 1995, we use three waves of Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) data to measure the extent to which the influence of market access on wages changed and affected wage dispersion across Chinese cities over the next 12 years. Employing the gravity-based method of Redding and Venables (2004) to calculate the market access available to firms located in each city, we test whether the elasticity of the wage with respect to local market access increased over time. We find that in all three years market access of the worker's location has a positive and significant influence on the wage. Consistent with extensive labor market reforms of the late 1990s, the estimated wage elasticity doubles between 1995 and 2002 and is stable thereafter. Our estimates indicate that wages of all workers become more responsive to market forces in a manner consistent with NEG predictions, both skilled and unskilled and those working for state as well as private enterprises. We also provide evidence that these results are not driven by omission of other forms of agglomeration or by selection bias. Estimated spatial differences in nominal wages are large: a worker moving from an inland location to the coast in 2007 would have doubled his or her nominal wage. Counterfactual analysis indicates that spatial differences in market access contribute to wage inequality, but less so over time.     

Monetary policy,cash holding and corporate investment: Evidence from China

This paper uses 13,766 firm-year observations between 2003 and 2013 from China to investigate the effects of monetary policy on corporate investment and the mitigating effects of cash holding. We find that tightening monetary policy reduces corporate investment while cash holdings mitigate such adverse effects. The cash mitigating role is especially significant for financially constrained firms, non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) and those firms located in a less developed financial market. Cash holding also improves investment efficiency when monetary policy is tightening and tightening monetary policy enhances the ‘cash-cash flow’ sensitivity. Our empirical evidence calls for a critical evaluation on the monetary policies implemented in China which are less effective for state-owned enterprises. It also calls for a necessity for local government to further develop regional financial markets to protect vulnerable businesses, such as non-SOEs and financially constrained firms, from external shocks in order to maintain their sustainable growth and competitive advantages.     

Financial reform and financing constraints: Some evidence from listed Chinese firms

This paper examines the impact of recent financial reforms in China on the financing constraints and investment of publicly-listed Chinese firms. Two continuous indices are constructed to measure the evolution and intensity of financial reforms: a financial liberalization index and a capital control index. Dynamic panel GMM method is used to estimate firms' financing constraints in an Euler-equation investment model. Based on panel data of listed firms for 1996–2007, we find that large firms face no credit constraints and smaller firms display significant constraints. However, the sensitivity of large firms' investment to their cash holdings is heightened as more financial reforms take place. It appears that reforms that gradually eliminate preferential treatments to large firms, primarily state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, have subjected these firms' investment decisions to stricter market-based discipline and therefore raised their financing constraints. No significant change in the financing constraint is detected for smaller firms in China. This is interpreted as financial reform in China has not been substantial enough for its benefits to reach smaller firms.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China

This paper designs a quasi-natural experiment for the identification of causal relationships between economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment-financing decisions using China's supply-side structural reform in 2015. We construct measures of asset reversibility across industries using China's national input–output flow table and match them with nonfinancial firms listed in China's A-share stock market from 2013 to 2017. We then use the difference-in-difference estimation strategy to investigate two-dimensional variations in periods (i.e., before and after 2015) and asset reversibility (i.e., high- and low-reversibility industries). The empirical results show that economic policy uncertainty significantly impedes real investment and reduces net debt issuance for private firms, whereas no such effects exist in state-owned firms. Interestingly, however, economic policy uncertainty has no significant impact on firms' cash-holding decisions.     

China＇s Outward Direct and Portfolio Investments

This paper analyzes developments and trends related to China's outward direct and financial investments by examining Chinese firms’overseas acquisitions, China's holdings of US Treasury securities, and the recently formally launched Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor programs. Strategies should be developed to reach optimal decisions for both direct and portfolio investments. We argue that China should have a longer‐term view for both direct and portfolio investments, enabling China to become the leader in Asia while maintaining its sustainable growth objective. China should invest heavily in the development of the Asian bond market and the Asian Currency Fund when making both portfolio and direct investment decisions.     

External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers

The external balance sheets of many emerging market countries are distinguished by their holdings of assets primarily in the form of foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves, while their liabilities are predominantly equity, either foreign direct investment or portfolio equity. We investigate the claim that this composition served as a buffer for the emerging markets during the global financial crisis of 2008–09. We use data from a sample of 67 emerging market and advanced economies, and several indicators of the crisis are utilized: GDP growth rates in 2008–09, the occurrence of bank crises and the use of IMF credit. Our results show that those countries that issued FDI liabilities had higher growth rates, fewer bank crises and were less likely to borrow from the IMF. Countries with debt liabilities, on the other hand, had more bank crises and were more likely to use IMF credit. We conclude that the “long debt, short equity” (hold debt assets, issue equity liabilities) strategy of emerging markets did mitigate the effects of the global financial crisis.     

The Voluntary Inclusion of Forecasts in the MD&A Section of Annual Reports*

Abstract. In this study, we appeal to theories advanced by Darrough and Stoughton (1990) to enhance our understanding of why some firms may voluntarily include directional forecasts in their annual reports while others do not. The data are consistent with their predictions that a firm's disclosure policy reflects its concern for both financial market valuation and product market competition. We find that for “good news firms, the probability of forecasting is increasing in the financing requirements but decreasing in the threat of competitor entry. The converse holds for “bad news” firms. These results lend further empirical support to the observation that the familiar good news hypothesis tested in the management earnings forecast literature offers only a partial explanation for the decision to forecast. Interestingly, however, even after controlling for financial and product market considerations, an overall voluntary disclosure bias still exists in the data. The data also provide support for the OSC's concern about a voluntary disclosure bias. Only 17.5 percent of our sample forecasts represent revisions downward relative to the previous year's results. However, in contrast to the OSC's concern about a general lack of forward-looking disclosures in annual reports, 35.9 percent of our sample firms include directional forecasts in their MD&A or elsewhere in the annual report.