Macroeconomic and financial stability in a monetary union: The case of Lithuania

In this paper, we study the implications of macroprudential policies in a monetary union for macroeconomic and financial stability. For this purpose, we develop a two-country monetary union new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints, to be calibrated for Lithuania and the rest of the euro area. We consider two different scenarios for macroprudential policies: one in which the ECB extends its goals to also include financial stability and a second one in which a national macroprudential authority uses the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) as an instrument. The results show that both rules are effective in making the financial system more stable in both countries, and especially in Lithuania. This is because the financial sector in this country is more sensitive to shocks. We find that an extended Taylor rule is indeed effective in reducing the volatility of credit, but comes with a cost in terms of higher inflation volatility. The simple LTV rule, on the other hand, does not compromise the objective of monetary policy. This reinforces the “Tinbergen principle”, which argues that there should be two different instruments when there are two different policy goals.     

International spillovers of (un)conventional monetary policy: The effect of the ECB and the US Fed on non-euro EU countries

We estimate a global vector autoregression model to examine the effects of euro area and US monetary policy stances, together with the effect of euro area consumer prices, on economic activity and prices in non-euro EU countries using monthly data from 2001-2016. Along with some standard macroeconomic variables, our model contains measures of the shadow monetary policy rate to address the zero lower bound and the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. We find that these monetary shocks have the expected qualitative effects but their magnitude differs across countries, with southeastern EU economies being less affected than their peers in Central Europe. Euro area monetary shocks have a greater effect than those that emanate from the US. We also find certain evidence that the effects of unconventional monetary policy measures are weaker than those of conventional measures. The spillovers of euro area price shocks to non-euro EU countries are limited, suggesting that the law of one price materializes slowly.     

Monetary policy,financial uncertainty,and secular stagnation

A monetary policy framework describing how to cope with a financial crisis might alleviate a recession; however, it might also result in subsequent secular stagnation. Based on an empirical New Keynesian model with financial uncertainty, this study investigates how monetary policy can avoid sluggish economic recovery in response to financial shocks. The results show that a protracted sluggish response of an output gap to a financial shock is triggered by inflation targeting, without considering interest rate variations. In such a policy, the uncertainty causes additional sluggish behavior after a sharp reduction in the output gap. In contrast, in a speed limit policy, the output gap recovers rapidly, regardless of the central bank’s approach to interest rate variations, and the uncertainty mitigates reductions in the output gap. Finally, the results are robust under several alternative settings.     

The transmission of US economic policy uncertainty shocks to Asian and global financial markets

This paper proposes a novel approach to investigating the spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty shocks on the global financial markets. Employing a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), we model US economic policy uncertainty jointly with the latent factors extracted from equity prices, exchange rates, and commodity prices. We find that US economic policy uncertainty affects these factors significantly. A country-level analysis shows heterogeneous responses to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty. With regard to equities, US economic policy uncertainty adversely affects equity prices. However, its impact on the Chinese equity market is relatively small. As for foreign exchange markets, while many currencies depreciate in response to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty, the US dollar and the Japanese yen appreciate, reflecting their safe-haven status. The Chinese yuan, whose nominal exchange rate is closely linked to the US dollar, also appreciates in response to uncertainty shocks.     

The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets

We study the multifaceted effects of trade policy shocks on financial markets using a structural vector autoregression identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively. They increase market uncertainty, lower US interest rates, and lead to an appreciation of the US dollar. The effects are significant for several weeks or quarters. Decomposing the trade policy shocks further suggests that trade policy uncertainty dominates tariff level effects. Chinese trade policy shocks against the United States further hurt US stocks.     

The international transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks: Evidence from a non-stationary dynamic factor model for the G7 countries

We employ a multi-country non-stationary dynamic factor model to assess spillover effects and transmission channels of US supply and demand shocks on a variety of macroeconomic variables in individual non-US G7 countries. We find that trade, financial and confidence channels all play a significant role in the international transmission of US shocks. However, the results point to substantial heterogeneities of shock transmission across the individual G7 economies. In particular, we find negative transmission effects for Italy and Japan as the only two G7 countries not well integrated into global value chains. Moreover, the exchange rate responses of Germany, France and Italy turn out to be far less pronounced in comparison to the other G7 economies which we relate to their membership of the euro area and their coordinated monetary policies prior to the establishment of the euro. Whereas we document a close comovement of stock market dynamics across the G7 countries, we find credit and real estate markets to be less synchronized. We do not find the effects and transmission channels to be fundamentally affected by the post-2008 economic environment.     

What does a Monetary Policy Shock Do? An International Analysis with Multiple Filters*

What does a monetary policy shock do? We answer this question by estimating a new‐Keynesian monetary policy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a number of economies with a variety of empirical proxies of the business cycle. The effects of two different policy shocks, an unexpected interest rate hike conditional on a constant inflation target and an unpredicted drift in the inflation target, are scrutinized. Filter‐specific Bayesian impulse responses are contrasted with those obtained by combining multiple business cycle indicators. Our results document the substantial uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of these two policy shocks across a number of countries.     

Global financial uncertainty

We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions. We find that the contraction in world output during the Great Recession would have been 13% milder in absence of GFU shocks. We also find support for a global finance uncertainty multiplier: the more global financial conditions deteriorate after a GFU shock, the larger the world output contraction is.     

Stocks,bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission

Understanding the complexity of the financial transmission process across various assets—domestically as well as within and across asset classes—requires the simultaneous modeling of the various transmission channels in a single, comprehensive empirical framework. The paper estimates the financial transmission between money, bond and equity markets and exchange rates within and between the USA and the euro area. We find that asset prices react strongest to other domestic asset price shocks, but that there are also substantial international spillovers, both within and across asset classes. The results underline the dominance of US markets as the main driver of global financial markets: US financial markets explain, on average, around 30% of movements in euro area financial markets, whereas euro area markets account only for about 6% of US asset price changes. Moreover, the methodology allows us to identify indirect spillovers through other asset prices, which are found to increase substantially the international transmission of shocks within asset classes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transmission of US financial and trade shocks to Asian economies: Implications for spillover of the 2007–2009 US financial crisis

This paper describes an investigation of the transmission of US shocks to Asian economies with consideration of financial linkages and trade linkages. Using the sign restriction vector autoregression (VAR) approach during 2000–2012, our empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, both US financial and trade linkages exert a significant impact on production in Asian economies. Second, through both financial and trade linkages, US spillover shocks account for around 50% of the production fluctuation in Asian economies. Third, during the episodes of 2007–2009 US financial crisis, the impact of financial shocks is greater than that of trade shocks. Results suggest that (i) Asian economies are not decoupled with US; and (ii) different from conventional findings, financial linkages between US and Asian economies are strong, especially for highly developed Asian economies. Therefore, investors and policymakers of Asian economies should take account of US financial conditions.     

Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy

This paper investigates the importance of financial depth in evaluating the asymmetric impact of monetary policy on real output over the course of the US business cycle. We show that monetary policy has a significant impact on output growth during recessions. We also show that financial deepening plays an important role by dampening the effects of monetary policy shocks in recessions. The results are robust to the use of alternative financial depth and monetary policy shock measures as well as to two different sample periods.     

Globalisation and monetary policy—A FAVAR analysis for the G7 and the eurozone

We assess the significance of global shocks for the world economy and national central banks and governments. More specifically, we investigate whether monetary policy has become less effective in the wake of financial globalization. We also analyze whether there is increasing uncertainty for central banks due to globalization-driven changes in the national economic structure. A FAVAR framework is applied to identify structural shocks on a world level and their effect on other global and national variables. To estimate our macroeconomic model, we employ quarterly data from Q1 1984 to Q4 2007 for the G7 countries and the euro area. According to our results, global liquidity shocks significantly influence the world economy and also various national economies. But common shocks driven by real estate prices and GDP also turn out to be significant at a global scale. These results prove to be robust across different specifications.     

The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: Stronger than thought

Standard macroeconomic theory predicts rapid responses of asset prices to monetary policy shocks. Small‐scale vector autoregressions (VARs), however, often find sluggish and insignificant impact effects. Using the same high‐frequency instrument to identify monetary policy shocks, we show that a large‐scale dynamic factor model finds overall stronger and quicker asset price reactions compared to a benchmark VAR, both on euro area and US data. Our results suggest that incorporating a sufficiently large information set is crucial to estimate monetary policy effects.     

The Relative Importance of Symmetric and Asymmetric Shocks: The Case of United Kingdom and Euro Area*

We show how a simple model with sign restrictions can be used to identify symmetric and asymmetric supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in an estimated two‐country structural VAR for the UK and Euro area. The results can be used to deal with several issues that are relevant in the optimal currency area literature. We find an important role for symmetric shocks in explaining the variability of the business cycle in both economies. However, the relative importance of asymmetric shocks, being around 20% in the long run, cannot be ignored. Moreover, when we estimate the model for the UK and US, the degree of business cycle synchronization seems to be higher. Finally, we confirm existing evidence of the exchange rate being an independent source of shocks in the economy.     

How better monetary statistics could have signaled the financial crisis

This paper explores the disconnect of Federal Reserve data from index number theory. A consequence could have been the decreased-systemic-risk misperceptions that contributed to excess risk-taking prior to the housing bust. We find that most recessions in the past 50 years were preceded by more contractionary monetary policy than indicated by simple-sum monetary data. Divisia monetary aggregate growth rates were generally lower than simple-sum aggregate growth rates in the period preceding the Great Moderation, and higher since the mid 1980s. Monetary policy was more contractionary than likely intended before the 2001 recession and more expansionary than likely intended during the subsequent recovery.     

Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis

This study compares a central bank’s leaning against the wind approach with a mix of monetary and macroprudential policies under parameter uncertainty in an estimated DSGE model with two financial frictions. We show that uncertainty of the economic environment is an essential constituent in properly designing macroprudential policy. Although coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies minimizes the policymakers’ Bayesian risk, coordination and non-coordination risks threaten the goals of both authorities. The former describes the situation where the authorities partly resign from implementing the monetary policy objectives to stabilize macroprudential risk. The latter is when conducting a non-coordinated macroprudential policy induces higher total Bayesian risk than when only the central bank minimizes the expected total welfare loss. The robust Bayesian macroeconomic rules show that when financial shocks shrink the banks’ or entrepreneurial net worth, a contractionary macroprudential policy should be combined with an expansionary monetary policy. However, if capital adequacy ratio or risk shocks strike the economy, such a conflict in macroeconomics policy instruments disappears, thus synchronizing both policies.     

Leaning into the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy*

This paper adapts Uhlig's [Journal of Monetary Economics (2005) forthcoming] sign restriction identification methodology to investigate the effects of UK monetary policy using a structural vector autoregression (VAR). It shows that shocks which can reasonably be described as monetary policy shocks have played only a small role in the total variation of UK monetary and macroeconomic variables. Most of the variation in UK monetary variables has been due to their systematic reaction to other macroeconomic shocks, namely non‐monetary aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and oil price shocks. We also find, without imposing any long run identifying restrictions, that aggregate supply shocks have permanent effects on output.     

Economic policy uncertainty and stock market sector time-varying spillover effect: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the volatility spillover effect among the Chinese economic policy uncertainty index, stock markets, gold and oil by employing the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. Three main results are obtained. Firstly, the optional consumption, industry, public utility and financial sectors are systemically important during the sample period. Secondly, among the four policy uncertainties, the uncertainty of fiscal policy and trade policy contributes more to the spillover effect, while the uncertainty of monetary policy and exchange rate policy contributes less to the spillover effect. Thirdly, during COVID-19, oil spillovers from other sources dropped rapidly to a very low point, it also had a significant impact on the net volatility spillover of the stock market. This paper can provide policy implication for decision-makers and reasonable risk aversion methods for investors.     

The Barnett critique after three decades: A New Keynesian analysis

This paper extends a New Keynesian model to include roles for currency and deposits as competing sources of liquidity services demanded by households. It shows that, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the Barnett critique applies: while a Divisia aggregate of monetary services tracks the true monetary aggregate almost perfectly, a simple-sum measure often behaves quite differently. The model also shows that movements in both quantity and price indexes for monetary services correlate strongly with movements in output following a variety of shocks. Finally, the analysis characterizes the optimal monetary policy response to disturbances that originate in the financial sector.     

Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity

Recently introduced measures for economic policy uncertainty (EPU), included in the data from 1997 to 2016, have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for future real economic activity for both the euro area and UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU information is important in times of normal business cycles, but might contain similar information components to financial market return variables during turbulent crisis periods in the financial markets and in the real economy.