The main determinants of banking crises in OECD countries

Banks’ stability can be affected by economic fluctuations, banks’ risk-taking behavior, connections among banks and countries’ financial system structure. At the same time, banking regulation and supervision were designed to protect banks from failure, but a large number of banking crises were not prevented recently. Using binary response models for panel data and focusing on OECD countries, this paper studies the main determinants of banking crises over a period of 21 years. Results suggest a bank’s high debt and a country’s low GDP growth rate as the major determinants of banking crises. There is also evidence of contagion across countries from the same geographical region and from G7 to other countries, and that bank-based financial systems are less prone to borderline banking crises. Regulatory and supervision practices are found not to have been relevant in bankruptcy prevention.     

资本监管、市场约束与政府监督——银行监管政策组合与权衡的实证研究

本文利用世界银行金融监管数据库及44个国家243家银行的数据,对新巴赛尔协议的三大监管支柱——市场约束、监管审查与资本金约束的交互作用对银行风险行为的影响进行了实证分析。研究表明,政府监管与市场约束、资本充足率监管对银行的风险控制效果相互加强,即互补,而资本金监管与市场信息披露、外部审计等监管方式则存在替代关系。研究证实了宏观政府监管力度与微观层面对于银行的市场约束和资本金监管等措施起到互补作用,而基于单个金融机构的微观监管方式之间则存在一定的相互替代关系。     

我国的金融监管模式与现状分析

近年来的全球金融危机使得金融监管的体制的问题再度成为关注热点,金融监管体制在决定监管效率上发挥着基础作用,对于整个的金融监管来说至关重要。监管当局监管不力该为此次金融危机的发生以及蔓延负上重要责任,本文通过对不同监管模式的比较,结合我国的具体情况,对我国的金融监管问题进行了分析。     

县域银行业监管体系优化研究

县域金融业的发展对我国高速发展的县域经济具有不可替代的支撑作用,但县域银行监管体系的不健全使区域性金融风险增大。文章分析县域银行业监管体系发展历史,结合当前县域银行监管体系发展实际,探讨优化县域银行监管体系的路径,提出了科学整合监管资源、健全组织结构设计、完善外联机制等优化县域银行监管体系的建议。     

论经济全球化背景下的外资银行金融监管

我国正加快融入金融一体化和全球化,传统的金融监管模式已不能适应中国加入世贸后的新形势。在金融全球化、经济一体化背景下,机遇与挑战并存,只有通过监管理论创新进而达到监管制度创新,积极学习借鉴国际金融监管先进经验,在发展中加强监管,以监管促开放,促引进,促发展,我们就一定能够迎头赶上金融监管的国际水平,为我国更加积极主动参与国际竞争提供良好的金融支持。     

跨国银行监管理论的新进展

金融市场的统一趋势及其监管范围的不断扩展,引发了银行监管的国际协调问题。跨国银行主要以分行或子行的形式开展国际业务,组织结构的差异同时带来了银行监管方面的差异。本文探讨了跨国银行监管与组织结构的关系,并对国际上关于跨国银行监管理论的最新研究成果进行了综述。随着我国银行业的全面对外开放,跨国银行监管会越来越凸显其重要的现实意义。     

Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression†

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

银行业监管机构的行政法考察

改革开放以来,我国银行业监管机构随着金融体制改革而不断调整,在抵御金融风险等方面发挥了重要作用,但也存在定位不合理、职责不明确、协调不顺畅、制约不到位等问题。深入研究并积极推进银行业监管机构相关制度的完善,是当前金融体制改革和行政管理体制改革的重要内容。     

Financial Deregulation and the Bank Lending Channel in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia

The dominant role of commercial banks as a source of finance and the considerable asymmetry of information in financial markets in developing countries have raised an argument that the bank lending channel of monetary transmission mechanism would be very important in such countries. This study addresses the issue by investigating empirically whether there are differential effects of monetary policy on banks' balance sheets, and its implications to the existence of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially since the early 1980s when the government adopted a policy of financial deveculation. We find significant differences of balance sheet behaviour across bank classes in response to a change in monetary policy, consistent with the predictions of the bank lending view. We also found that because of access to foreign funds and the existence of bank loan commitment, the monetary policy was unable to constrain loan supply by the large (state) banks, indicating that the bank lending channel operates through smaller (non-state) banks.     

农村中小金融机构差别监管的内在机理:由村镇银行生发

以村镇银行为代表的我国新型农村中小金融机构,其发展至今的运营效果与政策设立的初衷存在着背离。从银行监管理论框架、银行监管成本收益分析以及银行经营利润最大化这三个维度对实施差别监管进行分析后认为,应通过调整村镇银行的资产负债结构以及股权结构,加大对村镇银行的财政政策支持,调整农村地区的监管机构数量,制定差异化的经营策略、进入以及退出准则等有别于传统商业银行的监管规则,以实现村镇银行的可持续发展。     

Not All Financial Crises Are Alike!

The United States has experienced many financial crises, but the Great Depression, the prolonged thrift crisis of the 1980s, and the most recent Great Recession stand out. In this paper, the focus is on the differences the three crises exhibited in terms of the economic environment leading up to each crisis, the effects on financial institutions and financial markets, and the policy responses and how those responses evolved. The post-World War I macro environment leading up to the Great Depression was radically different than either the inflation environment of the 1970s and early 1980s or the housing collapse and role that subprime lending played in the Great Recession. Additionally, the financial institution failure experience was different in all three crises, as were the regulatory and legislative responses that followed. Perhaps most striking are two important differences. In the Great Depression, many very small rural banks failed. In the 1980s, the first round of failures hit mainly thrifts followed by largely smaller regional and community banks. In the Great Recession, the nation’s largest institutions were the main ones affected. Second, the runs on the institutions were also significantly different.     

External balance sheets as countercyclical crisis buffers

The external balance sheets of many emerging market countries are distinguished by their holdings of assets primarily in the form of foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves, while their liabilities are predominantly equity, either foreign direct investment or portfolio equity. We investigate the claim that this composition served as a buffer for the emerging markets during the global financial crisis of 2008–09. We use data from a sample of 67 emerging market and advanced economies, and several indicators of the crisis are utilized: GDP growth rates in 2008–09, the occurrence of bank crises and the use of IMF credit. Our results show that those countries that issued FDI liabilities had higher growth rates, fewer bank crises and were less likely to borrow from the IMF. Countries with debt liabilities, on the other hand, had more bank crises and were more likely to use IMF credit. We conclude that the “long debt, short equity” (hold debt assets, issue equity liabilities) strategy of emerging markets did mitigate the effects of the global financial crisis.     

Notes And Communications

This communication sketches in headlines long term developments in American and European banking. Contrary to the expectation of both practitioners and theorists in the nineties, has the role of banks in the economy not diminished but increased. This is demonstrated by the long term increase of bank credit as a percentage of GDP (resulting in a stronger growth of M2 and 3 than GDP), a growing contribution of bank sector income to GDP, growing employment (until recently) and a growing share of bank shares in total market capitalisation over the past three decades until 2004–2006. This growing share may have been induced by a comparatively superior performance, supported by a relatively high dividend yield, despite a lower-than-average price-earning ratio. Banks counteracted increased competition and disintermediation tendencies in their traditional lending business by a progressive involvement in capital markets. They developed themselves, in several functions, these markets. For this reason the often used distinction between bank-based and market-based financial systems is less meaningful. Capital markets function thanks to banks. Even more because a rapidly growing volume of new, unlisted investment instruments are constructed by banks and traded over their counter. By this development the risk absorbing and intermediating function of banks – being their basic function in the financial system – is also accentuated. The professional capability of leading banks to fulfil this basic function has in the current “sub prime” crisis come under severe criticism.     

银行分项监管对银行风险的影响——基于发展中国家数据的实证分析

基于43 个发展中国家357 家银行数据,运用系统GMM 方法,研究银行分项监管对银行风险的影响。其中,银行监管包括12 类分项监管,银行风险包括总体风险、信用评级风险和破产风险。回归结果显示：资本监管、内部管理监管、存款保险监管、信息披露监管和监管效率5 类分项监管均能降低3 类银行风险。其他分项监管能降低1 到2 类银行风险,即准入监管能够降低总体风险,增加信用评级风险;所有权监管会增加信用评级风险,降低破产风险;外部审计监管增加银行总体风险和破产风险,降低信用评级风险;流动性监管降低银行破产风险,对总体风险、信用评级风险不显著;资产分类和处置监管降低总体风险、信用评级风险,但增加破产风险;退出监管增加银行总体风险、信用评级风险,降低银行破产风险。本文的研究对我国加强银行监管,降低银行风险有很强的现实参考意义。     

系统性风险传染的波动性研究——基于金融网络动态关联的视角

在市场流动性不足的前提下,建立资金融通的金融网络结构可以降低个体机构的破产概率,但转移的风险会通过网络节点之间的关联度和正反馈效应实现交叉传染,从而增加整个市场奔溃的概率。文章通过DCC-MGARCH模型和无向有权型网络阐释了包括银行、证券、保险和多元金融机构在内的金融市场系统性风险的时变机制。实证结果表明金融机构的动态关联能够较好解释系统性风险的波动性,且我国的金融市场符合无标度网络的风险传染特征。其中,银行部门的市场中介地位不断强化,银行与非银行金融机构的联系日益紧密,新型金融机构的发展潜力巨大。因此在系统性风险的监管中应强调关联度指标的重要性和金融机构的网络属性,构建具有风险包容性的金融体系。     

我国商业银行操作风险的度量方法刍议

随着我国金融市场的全面开放,商业银行三大风险之中的操作风险越来越受到人们的重视。正确识别、度量操作风险,不仅是加强银行监管和内部管理的迫切需要,更是我国商业银行适应国际金融环境变化和风险管理趋势的必然选择。另外,面对频频发生的银行要案,我国商业银行在急需加强对操作风险度量模型研究的同时,有必要基于危机管理的角度对不可预知的操作风险采取相应的防范措施。     

The causes of the recent financial crisis and the role of central banks in avoiding the next one

The recent financial crisis revealed that in a world of large asymmetries of information, of complex financial innovations and incomplete regulatory frameworks “self regulation” obviously does not work. But we have also seen that the governmental stabilisation policies have not worked well either. This paper argues that there have been, at least, two main contributors to the recent financial crisis. The one is supervision and regulation policy, the other is monetary policy. Easy monetary policy designed to ward off perceived risks of deflation in 2002–04 contributed to the boom in the housing market in 2004 and 2005 by keeping interest rates too low for too long. Particularly the US-Fed has played a crucial role by fuelling the asset-price, boom-bust cycle that led to the sub-prime crisis and the following global financial crisis. Moreover, this paper analyses what central banks can do to help avoid a next financial crisis. In particular, the role and limits of supplementary macro-prudential instruments are discussed.     

Norwegian seter-farming

Abstract

This article compares financial groups in Japan and Sweden in order to examine functional and structural changes and continuities since the 1980s. The main question is to what extent controlling blocks and symbiotic relationships to banks have faded away in favor of arm's length distance between actors and a more market-oriented system reminiscent of those in the United Kingdom and the United States. The article gives an insight into how the industrial finance system in Japan and Sweden have responded to the deregulation of the credit market in the 1980s, the financial and industrial crises in the early 1990s and early twenty-first century, and the globalization of markets and businesses. The choice of Japan and Sweden is motivated by the fact that these countries by tradition have been two of the strongest representatives of a control-oriented industrial finance system in the world. In this article, a diachronic and synchronic comparative analysis is used, with focus on four distinctive parameters of the industrial finance system: ownership and control, bank relationships, crisis management and personal networks. The article draws on empirical findings from a variety of sources, including archives.     

银行监督提高了债务人的经营绩效吗?——来自房地产上市公司面板数据的实证检验

中国房地产企业的银行信贷依赖特征为探索银行监督与企业绩效之间的关系提供了良好的现实背景。论文以企业绩效作为公司治理效率的替代,基于银行监督与企业绩效的研究主线,深入分析了银行监督与企业绩效的关系。研究发现:银行监督对企业绩效产生了负面影响,国有房地产企业和银行的产权同源性特征是导致银行负债的杠杆治理效应被扭曲的重要原因;虽然银行负债的杠杆治理效应被扭曲,但是银行监督作为一种外部治理机制,其与内部治理机制之间存在交互效应,要么表现为替代关系,要么表现为互补关系。在中国当前的制度背景下,要发挥银行监督的功能,提高企业绩效,而且要解决中国银行出现的呆账和坏账问题,其根本出路就是要发挥杠杆治理的作用。