Leveraged carry trade portfolios

Studying all possible pairs of 11 major currencies and 11 portfolios in 1976–2008 we show that, when there is no leverage, carry trade is significantly profitable for most currency pairs and portfolios. Positive returns do not diminish in time providing a strong case against the hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity. We explain these findings with the leveraged nature of carry trade: leverage may increase profitability but it materially increases downside risk. We argue that market inefficiency is related to the level of leverage.     

On the stability of portfolio selection models

One of the main issues in portfolio selection models consists in assessing the effect of the estimation errors of the parameters required by the models on the quality of the selected portfolios. Several studies have been devoted to this topic for the minimum variance and for several other minimum risk models. However, no sensitivity analysis seems to have been reported for the recent popular Risk Parity diversification approach, nor for other portfolio selection models requiring maximum gain–risk ratios.Based on artificial and real-world data, we provide here empirical evidence showing that the Risk Parity model is always the most stable one in all the cases analyzed with respect to the portfolio composition. Furthermore, the minimum risk models are typically more stable than the maximum gain–risk models, with the minimum variance model often being the preferable one. The Risk Parity model seems to be the most stable one also with respect to profitability when measured by the Sharpe ratio. However, the maximum gain–risk models, although quite sensitive to the input data, generally appear to attain better profitability results.     

Firm profitability and expected stock returns: Evidence from Latin America

Despite their higher valuation ratios, larger size, and higher investment needs, profitable firms outperform, in both raw and risk-adjusted returns, unprofitable firms in Latin America. The positive effect of firm profitability on stock returns is pervasive in univariate and bivariate sorts, panel regressions, across sub-regional markets, and among small and large stocks. A five-factor model that includes market, size, distress, profitability, and investment factors prices profitability portfolios better than other popular factor models. Five-factor alphas of profitability portfolios tend to be lower and less statistically significant, both individually and collectively, than alphas from other three widely-used pricing models.     

The Impact of Supervision on Bank Performance

We explore the impact of supervision on the riskiness, profitability, and growth of U.S. banks. Using data on supervisors' time use, we demonstrate that the top-ranked banks by size within a supervisory district receive more attention from supervisors, even after controlling for size, complexity, risk, and other characteristics. Using a matched sample approach, we find that these top-ranked banks that receive more supervisory attention hold less risky loan portfolios, are less volatile, and are less sensitive to industry downturns, but do not have lower growth or profitability. Our results underscore the distinct role of supervision in mitigating banking sector risk.     

Abnormal Returns from Takeover Prediction Modelling: Challenges and Suggested Investment Strategies

While takeover targets earn significant abnormal returns, studies tend to find no abnormal returns from investing in predicted takeover targets. In this study, we show that the difficulty of correctly identifying targets ex ante does not fully explain the below‐expected returns to target portfolios. Target prediction models’ inability to optimally time impending takeovers, by taking account of pre‐bid target underperformance and the anticipation of potential targets by other market participants, diminishes but does not eliminate the potential profitability of investing in predicted targets. Importantly, we find that target portfolios are predisposed to underperform, as targets and distressed firms share common firm characteristics, resulting in the misclassification of a disproportionately high number of distressed firms as potential targets. We show that this problem can be mitigated, and significant risk‐adjusted returns can be earned, by screening firms in target portfolios for size, leverage and liquidity.     

Volatility timing,sentiment, and the short-term profitability of VIX-based cross-sectional trading strategies

This paper explores the profitability of simple short-term cross-sectional trading strategies based on the implied volatility index (VIX), often referred to as an “investor fear gauge” in the stock market. These strategies involve holding sentiment-prone stocks when VIX is low and sentiment-immune stocks when VIX is high and generate significantly higher excess returns than the benchmark long–short portfolios that do not condition on VIX. We show that the profitability of our trading strategies is not subsumed by the well-known risk factors or transaction cost adjustments. Our findings are consistent with the theory of delayed arbitrage and the synchronization problem of Abreu and Brunnermeier (2002).     

THE ROBUSTNESS OF ABNORMAL RETURNS FROM THE EARNINGS YIELD CONTRARIAN INVESTMENT STRATEGY

We examine the sensitivity of the abnormal profitability of the earnings' yield (E/P)‐based contrarian investment strategy to the following two risk measurement issues: (a) return‐measurement interval over which systematic risk is estimated and (b) time variation in systematic risk. We conduct our analysis using the capital asset pricing model to parameterize risk. We find that the estimates of systematic risk of E/P‐ranked portfolios are not sensitive to the return‐measurement interval. Consequently the abnormal profits to the E/P‐based contrarian investment strategy observed in prior studies are not artifacts of the return‐measurement interval. Furthermore, although both the raw and abnormal returns to E/P‐ranked portfolios exhibit mean reversion, time variation in systematic risk ensuing from this mean‐reverting behavior does not substantially affect abnormal profits to E/P‐ranked portfolios. JEL classification: G11, G12, G14     

A test of risk arbitrage profitability

We explore the performance of risk arbitrage involving three types of merger offers: cash tender, stock swap, and collar offers for the period between 1990 and 2000. Our result reveals that risk arbitrage for a successful stock offer generates higher returns than a successful cash offer. This finding implies that the profitability of risk arbitrage depends on the level of asymmetric information associated with the payment method. We also find that the beta of typical risk arbitrage positions/portfolios is heavily influenced by the payment method and market conditions.     

A Dynamic Model of Characteristic‐Based Return Predictability

We present a dynamic model that links characteristic‐based return predictability to systematic factors that determine the evolution of firm fundamentals. In the model, an economy‐wide disruption process reallocates profits from existing businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of systematic risk for portfolios of firms sorted on value, profitability, and asset growth. If investors are overconfident about their ability to evaluate the disruption climate, these characteristic‐sorted portfolios exhibit persistent mispricing. The model generates predictions about the conditional predictability of characteristic‐sorted portfolio returns and illustrates how return persistence increases the likelihood of observing characteristic‐based anomalies.     

Anomalies,risk adjustment and seasonality: Australian evidence

On the basis of raw return analysis, economically significant anomalies appear to exist in relation to the size, momentum, book-to-market and profitability of Australian firms. However, characteristic-sorted portfolios are shown to load in very particular ways on multiple risk factors. After adjusting for exposure to risk, convincing evidence only remains for the size premium. An analysis of seasonality shows that, rather than being consistent throughout the year, anomaly returns are concentrated in a handful of months. We provide and test preliminary explanations of the observed seasonality in these well-known anomalies.     

The efficiency of the buy-write strategy: Evidence from Australia

We examine the performance of the buy-write option strategy (BWS) on the Australian Stock Exchange and analyse whether such an investment opportunity violates the efficient market hypothesis on the basis of its risk and returns. This study investigates the relationship between buy-write portfolios returns and past trading volume and other fundamental financial factors including dividend yield, firm size, book to market ratio, earnings per share (EPS), price earnings ratio and value stocks within these portfolios. We also test the profitability of the buy-write strategy during bull and bear markets. Consistent with the literature, it is observed that BWS offers superior risk adjusted returns for low levels of out-of-moneyness and contrary evidence is observed for deeper out-of-money portfolios. Consistent with a preference for options with a maturity of around 3 months in Australia, this research shows that quarterly rebalancing periods offer better returns for the BWS.     

Market Interest Rates and Commercial Bank Profitability: An Empirical Investigation

The widespread notion that commercial banks “borrow short and lend long” implies that sharp market interest rate increases may induce a significant number of banking failures. This paper develops a method for estimating average asset and liability maturities for a sample of large money center banks. Regression models are tested to determine if market rate fluctuations have a significant impact on bank profitability. The conclusion is negative: large banks have effectively hedged themselves against market rate risk by assembling asset and liability portfolios with similar average maturities.     

Volatility‐Managed Portfolios

Managed portfolios that take less risk when volatility is high produce large alphas, increase Sharpe ratios, and produce large utility gains for mean‐variance investors. We document this for the market, value, momentum, profitability, return on equity, investment, and betting‐against‐beta factors, as well as the currency carry trade. Volatility timing increases Sharpe ratios because changes in volatility are not offset by proportional changes in expected returns. Our strategy is contrary to conventional wisdom because it takes relatively less risk in recessions. This rules out typical risk‐based explanations and is a challenge to structural models of time‐varying expected returns.     

Mean-variance versus utility maximization revisited: The case of constant relative risk aversion

We examine if mean-variance (M-V) is a good proxy for portfolios based on the Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) utility function. M-V portfolios are considered good proxies for portfolios from several utility functions which is why they are routinely used in the portfolio theory literature as the benchmark. Our results clearly show this is not the case. Low risk CRRA portfolios are in many cases very different to M-V portfolios, especially with respect to downside risk. If a risk-free asset is available, in many cases, no M-V portfolio is an adequate proxy for CRRA portfolios. The implications of our findings are that: i) M-V portfolios are a poor proxy for investors with CRRA preferences, ii) CRRA portfolios are more suited to investors who care about downside risk than M-V portfolios, and iii) the efficacy of M-V to proxy for utility maximization should be examined more thoroughly.     

Which Credit Unions are Acquired?

Recent years have witnessed a wave of consolidation amongst US credit unions. Through hazard function estimations, this paper identifies the determinants of acquisition for credit unions during the period 2001-06. The hazard of acquisition is inversely related to both asset size and profitability, and positively related to liquidity. Growth-constrained credit unions are less attractive acquisition targets. Institutions with low capitalization and those with small loans portfolios relative to total assets are susceptible to acquisition. The investigation presents unique empirical evidence of a link between technological capability and the hazard of acquisition. During the period 2001-06, when there was sustained growth in the use of internet technology, credit unions with no website were at the highest risk of acquisition.     

ARE PAIRS TRADING PROFITS ROBUST TO TRADING COSTS?

We examine the impact of trading costs on pairs trading profitability in the U.S. equity market, 1963 to 2009. After controlling for commissions, market impact, and short selling fees, pairs trading remains profitable, albeit at much more modest levels. Specifically, we document a risk‐adjusted return of about 30 basis points per month among portfolios of well‐matched pairs that are formed within refined industry groups. Pairs trading exhibits a lower risk and lower return profile than a short‐term reversal strategy that sorts stocks relative to their industry peers. Notably, both these types of contrarian investing are largely unprofitable after 2002.     

Short-term market timing using the bond–equity yield ratio

This paper takes a new look at the market-timing ability of the bond–equity yield ratio (BEYR). We compare the short-term profitability of a naive strategy based on the extreme values of the BEYR to the short-term profitability of a sophisticated strategy relying on regime switches. In contrast to previous studies, we do not document any major international evidence that these dynamic strategies deliver significantly higher risk-adjusted returns than the buy-and-hold portfolios. Moreover, the profitability of these active strategies is not improved when the equity yield, instead of the BEYR, is used as a criterion to time the market.     

Pairs trading in the UK equity market: risk and return

In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive UK evidence on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Evidence suggests that the strategy performs well in crisis periods, so we control for both risk and liquidity to assess performance. To evaluate the effect of market frictions on the strategy, we use several estimates of transaction costs. We also present evidence on the performance of the strategy in different economic and market states. Our results show that pairs trading portfolios typically have little exposure to known equity risk factors such as market, size, value, momentum and reversal. However, a model controlling for risk and liquidity explains a far larger proportion of returns. Incorporating different assumptions about bid-ask spreads leads to reductions in performance estimates. When we allow for time-varying risk exposures, conditioned on the contemporaneous equity market return, risk-adjusted returns are generally not significantly different from zero.     

Is idiosyncratic volatility priced in commodity futures markets?

This article investigates the relationship between expected returns and past idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads to the puzzling finding that idiosyncratic volatility is significantly negatively priced cross-sectionally. However, idiosyncratic volatility is not priced when the phases of backwardation and contango are suitably factored in the pricing model. A time-series portfolio analysis similarly suggests that failing to recognize the fundamental risk associated with the inexorable phases of backwardation and contango leads to overstated profitability of the idiosyncratic volatility mimicking portfolios.     

A note on the performance of foreign exchange forecasters in a portfolio framework

This note investigates the ability of 22 currency forecasters to predict movements in three major exchange rates. In particular, it examines the profitability of portfolios of forward market positions constructed on the basis of the predictions of each forecaster. The key findings of the paper are that just one panel member proves significantly profitable to follow, and that investing on the basis of the naive alternative prediction of ‘no change’ produces high, though volatile, profits. We conclude that the majority of currency analysts have little ability to predict the future.