Analysis of U.S. savings bonds

U.S. savings bonds are complex contracts. Financial planners have traditionally paid little attention to savings bonds, in part because they often offer below-market interest rates. However, they sometimes offer above-market interest rates, especially when one learns how to view and value their option features. All savings bonds contain put options that protect the investor against a rise in interest rates. Thus, they can be viewed as short-term, intermediate-term, or long-term bonds. The EE bonds also offer several tax options. We show how savings bonds can be used to beat the kiddie tax, to finance postsecondary education, and in retirement planning.     

A Note on the Public Interest and Ethical Behaviour

The Joint Code of Professional Conduct of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia has made the protection of the public interest the primary responsibility of chartered accountants. We argue that the traditional accounting practices to safeguard the interests of clients and employers are likely to be contrary to the public interest and represent unethical behaviour in terms of the code. We also argue that although there may be breaches of the code they are unlikely to result in disciplinary action as there is a low probability of complaints against members of the Institute.     

A Note on the Public Interest and Ethical Behaviour

The Joint Code of Professional Conduct of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia has made the protection of the public interest the primary responsibility of chartered accountants. We argue that the traditional accounting practices to safeguard the interests of clients and employers are likely to be contrary to the public interest and represent unethical behaviour in terms of the code. We also argue that although there may be breaches of the code they are unlikely to result in disciplinary action as there is a low probability of complaints against members of the Institute.     

Are early stage investors biased against women?

We study whether early stage investors have gender biases using a proprietary data set from AngelList that allows us to observe private interactions between investors and fundraising startups. We find that male investors express less interest in female entrepreneurs compared to observably similar male entrepreneurs. In contrast, female investors express more interest in female entrepreneurs. These findings do not appear to be driven by within-gender screening/monitoring advantages or gender differences in risk preferences. Moreover, the male-led startups that male investors express interest in do not outperform the female-led startups they express interest in—they underperform. Overall, the evidence is consistent with gender biases.     

Early Exercise of Put Options on Stocks

U.S. exchange‐traded stock options are exercisable before expiration. While put options should frequently be exercised early to earn interest, they are not. In this paper, we derive an early exercise decision rule and then examine actual exercise behavior during the period January 1996 through September 2008. We find that more than 3.96 million puts that should have been exercised early remain unexercised, representing over 3.7% of all outstanding puts. We also find that failure to exercise cost put option holders $1.9 billion in forgone interest income and that this interest is systematically captured by market makers and proprietary firms.     

Interest Rate Futures Options and Interest Rate Options

This paper derives pricing models of interest rate options and interest rate futures options. The models utilize the arbitrage-free interest rate movements model of Ho and Lee. In their model, they take the initial term structure as given, and for the subsequent periods, they only require that the bond prices move relative to each other in an arbitrage-free manner. Viewing the interest rate options as contingent claims to the underlying bonds, we derive the closed-form solutions to the options. Since these models are sufficiently simple, they can be used to investigate empirically the pricing of bond options. We also empirically examine the pricing of Eurodollar futures options. The results show that the model has significant explanatory power and, on average, has smaller estimation errors than Black's model. The results suggest that the model can be used to price options relative to each other, even though they may have different expiration dates and strike prices.     

An evaluation of the professional forecasts of U.S. long-term interest rates

This paper evaluates the multiperiod forecasts of Moody's Aaa corporate and the 10-year Treasury bond rates from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). We show that the SPF forecasts are not rational since they fail to be unbiased and, in some cases, do not fully incorporate the information in the past actual rates. These forecasts, however, are useful, since they are able to accurately predict the direction of change in the actual series. We also formulate a model that utilizes the information in the SPF forecasts of the unemployment rate. Comparable four-quarter-ahead forecasts of the two interest rates from this model are shown to be significantly more accurate than the corresponding SPF forecasts for 2001.1-2004.4.     

Determinants of Consumption and Savings Behavior in Developing Countries

The determinants of savings generally and the specific effectsof government policies on savings and consumption are pivotalforces in investment and economic growth. The Hall hypothesisstates that consumption is a function of lifetime ("permanent")income, rather than income in each period independently. Changesin interest and tax rates, money supply, or government expenditurewill affect permanent income and hence consumption and savingsonly if they are unexpected and thus not already incorporatedin the estimation of permanent income. We are unable to rejectthe Hall hypothesis in tests for developing countries when weallow for varying interest rates. We do find evidence of a negativeeffect of inflation on consumption, and a positive relationshipbetween the real interest rate and consumption. The evidencefor the Hall hypothesis also suggests that Ricardian equivalencemay be valid—this is Barro's hypothesis that the effecton savings is the same whether government deficits are financedthrough taxation or debt. Our preliminary testing, however,does not support Ricardian equivalence.     

Barriers to depository uses of derivatives: an empirical analysis

We examine the relationship between derivatives use of US savings associations during 1993–1997. The advantage of examining thrifts is that they are only end-users of derivatives. We find that: (1) firm size positively correlated with derivatives use generally and to OTC derivatives use in particular; (2) the dominant underlying reason for the effect of firm size upon derivatives usage appears to be transactions cost, not the cost of acquiring the expertise to manage portfolio interest rate risk; and (3) the use of derivatives, especially OTC derivatives, is a least cost method of controlling interest rate risk. The lack of usage by smaller institutions, while consistent with profit-maximization, suggests that a significant segment of the industry is limited in its ability to manage interest rate risk.     

Is universal banking justified? Evidence from bank underwriting of corporate bonds in Japan

We examine the extent to which universal banking in Japan creates conflicts of interest. We find that as banks enter the securities business, they discount the price of the corporate bonds they underwrite significantly in an effort to attract investors, thereby generating conflicts of interest that are harmful to issuers. Further, we find that close prior lending relationships between banks and their client issuers is the driving force behind such conflicts and that competition from investment houses limits but does not eliminate these conflicts. Our results contrast sharply with the evidence for the US, which largely shows a certification role for banks.     

利率市场化背景下商业银行利率风险管理

随着利率市场化的推进,我国商业银行面临的利率风险日益凸显。本文分析提出商业银行应进一步加强对利率风险的识别、度量和管理。还同时分析利率风险和信用风险之间的关系,并指出利率风险和信用风险都影响着银行的经营,应纳入银行的全面风险管理之中。     

The effect of affiliated analysts on stock recommendations: Evidence from share pledges in China

We use the share pledge context in China to examine how affiliated analysts whose securities companies are pledgees of share pledge firms issue stock recommendations on these listed firms. We find that their recommendations are more optimistic than those of non-affiliated analysts, and they are more likely to issue Buy and Add recommendations, suggesting that they issue optimistic rating reports for share pledge firms due to their conflicts of interest. We also find a dynamic adjustment in the stock recommendation behavior of these analysts, and their probability after issuing optimistic stock recommendations is significantly reduced before and after the years that the affiliation relationship between them and share pledge firms both began and ended. These affiliated analysts continue to issue optimistic stock recommendations after visiting the share pledge firms if they work in the same location as the firms, or if they are star analysts among New Fortune’s “top five analysts,” and when the information transparency of the share pledge firms is higher. In addition, the optimistic stock recommendation behavior of affiliated analysts is more significant in our sample of firms with high share pledge ratios and downward stock price pressure. The earnings forecast quality of affiliated analysts is also found to be lower, and they are less inclined to downgrade stock recommendations for these share pledge firms. Buy recommendations issued by both non-affiliated and affiliated analysts can bring cumulative excess returns in the short event window, but those issued by affiliated analysts are significantly negative in the long-term event window, and significantly lower than those issued by non-affiliated analysts. Overall, our study shows that affiliated analysts issue optimistic rating reports on share pledge firms due to conflicts of interest, which leads to decision-making bias in investors and thus decreases the stock price crash risk of the firms. Our findings further reveal the economic consequences of share pledging and extend our understanding of the behavior of analysts in a conflict of interest situation from the share pledge perspective.     

Hedge commitments and agency costs of debt: evidence from interest rate protection covenants and accounting conservatism

We provide large sample evidence that credible hedge commitments reduce the agency costs of debt and that accounting conservatism enhances hedge commitments. We examine 2,338 bank loans entered into by 263 mandatory derivative users that are contractually obligated by interest rate protection covenants, 709 voluntary derivative users, and 1,366 non-users. We show that loan contracts are more likely to include interest rate protection covenants when borrowers are less likely to maintain the hedge position once the financing is completed. We find that borrowers who credibly commit to hedge using these covenants significantly reduce their interest rates. While we do not find an average interest savings for voluntary derivative users, we do find a reduction in their loan rates when they practice conservative financial reporting. Our results suggest that accounting conservatism helps borrowers resolve shareholder-creditor conflicts by committing to maintain their hedge positions after completing debt financing.     

The Role of Interest Rates in Influencing Long-Run Homeownership Rates

As a stated policy objective, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) seeks to boost the national homeownership rate to 70 percent by 2006. To accomplish this goal, they estimate that 3.8 million additional families be added to the ranks of U.S. homeowners. Furthermore, HUD estimates that the homeownership gap between minority and nonminority families must be reduced by a full 15 percent. Many policy instruments—both targeted and otherwise—have been suggested to increase homeownership. These range from low downpayment loans, greater access to credit in underserved areas, and interest rates subsidies. However, little is know about the efficacy of these measures to raise long-term homeownership rates. In this analysis, we focus on the role of interest rates on homeownership rates and the housing stock. In particular, we provide a critical review of the literature on the relationship between housing and interest rates in contrast to other determinants of homeownership and changes in housing supply. We then present our own estimates of the influence of interest rates on homeownership and housing starts. We find that interest rates play little direct role in changing homeownership rates. While changes in interest rates may affect the timing of changes in tenure status from renter to owner, the long-run ownership rate appears independent of interest rates. We find housing starts are, however, sensitive to changes in the interest rate. This implies that housing supply, or at least the timing of changes in housing supply, is sensitive to interest rates. It is though this mechanism that the stock of owner-occupied housing expands, though household formation and immigration may leave the ownership rate unchanged. We conclude by discussing whether other instruments, such as low down payment loans and improved technology for assessment of credit risk, may potentially be better suited to increasing long-term homeownership rates.     

Optimal monetary policy in a ‘sudden stop’

In the wake of the 1997-98 financial crises, interest rates in Asia were raised immediately, and then reduced sharply. We describe an environment in which this is the optimal monetary policy. The optimality of the immediate rise in the interest rate is an example of the theory of the second best: although high interest rates introduce an inefficiency wedge into the labor market, they are nevertheless welfare improving because they mitigate distortions due to binding collateral constraints. Over time, as the collateral constraint is less binding, the familiar Friedman forces dominate, and interest rates are optimally set as low as possible.     

The competitive implications of multimarket bank branching

Retail banking markets have traditionally been viewed as locally limited. However, recent studies have found evidence that large multimarket banking organizations tend to offer uniform interest rates for retail deposit accounts throughout the area that they serve, at least within a given state. This uniform pricing phenomenon raises questions about the continued relevance of the concept of local banking markets for both research and antitrust purposes.We address this issue by employing a model designed to explain the pricing behavior of single-market banks that face competition from multimarket banks. Empirical results are found to be consistent with the many implications of the model. We find that even with multimarket banks present in the market, local market concentration influences the pricing behavior of single-market banks; however, this relationship weakens as the market share of multimarket banks grows. We also find that, on average, multimarket banks offer lower deposit interest rates than do single-market banks operating in the same market, and, in most cases, greater multimarket bank presence is associated with lower deposit interest rates offered by single-market banks.     

Unspanned Stochastic Volatility: Evidence from Hedging Interest Rate Derivatives

Most existing dynamic term structure models assume that interest rate derivatives are redundant securities and can be perfectly hedged using solely bonds. We find that the quadratic term structure models have serious difficulties in hedging caps and cap straddles, even though they capture bond yields well. Furthermore, at‐the‐money straddle hedging errors are highly correlated with cap‐implied volatilities and can explain a large fraction of hedging errors of all caps and straddles across moneyness and maturities. Our results strongly suggest the existence of systematic unspanned factors related to stochastic volatility in interest rate derivatives markets.     

Analyst firm parent–subsidiary relationship and conflict of interest: evidence from IPO recommendations

We uncover a new source for the conflict of interest in analyst coverage existed before the Regulation FD period by examining whether recommendations within the parent–subsidiary (PS) relationship are more optimistic and whether they have better investment value than non‐PS recommendations. We find evidence consistent with the conflict of interest: PS analysts on average issue more optimistic recommendations, but their recommendations have worse or no better investment value in the calendar‐time portfolio analysis. Analyst firm PS relationship is another source for the conflict of interest in analyst coverage that has not been identified before.     

Precautionary Balances and the Velocity of Circulation of Money

The low velocity of circulation of money implies that households hold more money than they normally spend. This behavior is explained if households face uncertain expenditure needs, so that they have a precautionary motive for holding money. We investigate this motive in a search model where households are subject to preference shocks. The model predicts that velocity is not only low but also interest elastic. The model closely fits U.S. data on velocity and interest rates (1892–2004). The empirical analysis reveals a dramatic reduction in precautionary balances toward the end of our sample, which is important for policy issues.