中国全要素生产率的估算:1979—2004

本文在分析比较了全要素生产率四种估算方法的基础上,估算出我国1979—2004年间的全要素生产率增长率,并对我国全要素生产率增长和经济增长源泉做了简要分析。分析表明(1)1993年以前,我国的全要素生产率增长率总体呈现出涨跌互现的波动情形且波动较为剧烈频繁,1993年以来,则呈现出逐年下降趋势,直到2000年才得以缓解,此后全要素生产率增长率总体呈现出逐年攀升势头;(2)1979—2004年间我国全要素生产率增长率及其对经济增长的贡献率较低,表明我国经济增长主要依赖于要素投入增长,是一种较为典型的投入型增长方式;(3)我国全要素生产率增长率较低的原因在于技术进步率偏低、生产能力没有得到充分利用、技术效率低下和资源配置不尽合理。     

我国双目标基础货币规则的设定

通过VEC模型研究发现,我国基础货币增长率、实际GDP增长率、CPI、货币流通速度之间具有趋势特征,存在显著相关性,基础货币的可控性与可测性良好且流通速度较为稳定;基础货币对实际GDP增长率偏差的反应程度要高于通货膨胀率偏差,需在规则设定中赋予更大的权重;能实现经济增长和物价稳定双重目标的基础货币规则,其目标值的设定可以是点或是区间,而区间目标既能体现规则的严肃性又能实现操作的灵活性,还能满足货币政策逆风向调节的本质特征。     

中国通货膨胀和经济增长的关联性分析

通货膨胀和经济增长是两个非常重要的宏观经济现象,通货膨胀率是反映一国宏观经济整体是否稳定的重要经济指标,而经济增长率更是反映一个国家经济实力的重要标志。实现较低的通货膨胀率,同时保持较高的经济增长率是许多国家和政府进行宏观调控的重要目标。为此,应用单位根检验方法、协整理论以及向量自回归(VAR)三种经济计量模型与方法,对中国的通货膨胀率与经济增长率之间的关系进行研究。     

消费波动小于产出波动吗?

我们发现东亚主要经济体普遍存在消费波动大于产出波动的现象,初步分析表明这与各经济体的经济转型有关,我国转型期以来比较剧烈的总消费波动应主要归于居民消费行为的转型:(1)以1990年为界,我国居民总消费自经济转型以来的前一个时间段中波动比较剧烈,之后则趋于平稳。进一步地,由于我国的经济改革先从农村开始,而后推进到城镇,相应地农村和城镇居民消费在两个时间段中的波动幅度也出现了明显差异;(2)消费的剧烈波动往往出现在转型早期,在转型后期大部分东亚经济体的消费序列开始变得平稳;(3)耐用品不能解释我国消费的大部分波动性。     

公共支出转型及其经济发展效应研究

笔者基于政府职能转变视角,考察了公共支出转型中的规模与结构变化,并对其经济发展效应进行了实证分析。研究发现:(1)中国公共支出已经由经济建设型转向公共服务型;(2)公共支出规模与经济增长率和社会不公平指数正相关;(3)经济建设性支出占总支出比重与经济增长率负相关,与社会不公平指数正相关;(4)公共服务性支出占总支出比重与经济增长率正相关,与社会不公平指数负相关。     

汇率波动、货币政策传导渠道及有效性——兼论"不可能三角"在我国的适用性

本文尝试把人民币汇率波动纳入货币政策中介目标监控体系,采用1996年1季度至2008年2季度的季度数据进行实证检验。研究表明:(1)我国货币政策是通过货币渠道来影响实际经济总量的,并且狭义货币供应量更能实现对实际产出目标的传导和调控;(2)人民币汇率波动的扩大会减少货币供应量;(3)不可能三角在我国是成立的;(4)将人民币汇率波动纳入货币政策中介目标监控体系能提高货币政策的有效性。     

近年来我国宏观货币政策力度剖析

在2008-2009年我国发生经济收缩的阶段,中央银行大规模增加货币供给和降低利率,有力地抵御了经济收缩,但也导致资产价格上升并在一定程度上助长了2010年的通货膨胀。在2010-2011年我国发生通货膨胀的阶段,中央银行大规模收缩货币供给和提高利率,虽然在一定程度上压抑了通货膨胀,但没有解决成本因素导致的通货膨胀,同时还造成了信贷紧缺和经济收缩的压力。近年宏观货币政策的实践表明,我国宏观货币政策存在力度过大的问题。因此,我国需要建立新的宏观货币政策规则,即稳定货币供给的增长率和利率水平,使货币供给和利率随着实际国内生产总值增长率与国内生产总值目标增长率的差额,以及实际通货膨胀率与目标通货膨胀率的差额进行适度调整。     

我国农村剩余劳动力转移与通货膨胀关系的实证研究

本文在我国货币超发的背景下,从实证方面研究农村剩余劳动力转移速度对通货膨胀率的影响。结果发现通货膨胀率、剩余劳动力转移速度、货币供给量增长率三者之间存在长期均衡关系,剩余劳动力转移速度正向促进通货膨胀,三个变量之间存在着短期波动调节机制,当期短期波动偏离长期均衡的程度中0.96倍在下一期会被调整。另外,本文运用面板数据模型研究了八大综合经济区剩余劳动力转移对通货膨胀率的影响程度的地区差异。     

财政波动风险影响财政收支的动态研究

作为宏观调控的重要手段,财政收支变动及其风险是政府调控经济时关心的重要问题。利用月度财政收支的时间序列数据,本文建立了财政收支增长率和波动率的均值条件异方差(GARCH-in-Mean)模型,考察了财政收支波动风险对财政收支的影响。研究发现:(1)在增长率之间的关系上,财政支出增长推动财政收入增长,而财政收入的增长没有显著地促进财政支出的增长;(2)财政收支的风险对财政收支增长率的交叉影响是不对称的,财政支出风险促进财政收入增长,但财政收入风险抑制财政支出增长;(3)随机冲击对财政收支的影响持续时间较长,大约在9个月之后开始平复,并在27—40个月后才衰减完毕,而财政收支的波动率对随机冲击的反应很快,大约4个月时间就充分吸收了冲击的影响。     

多重货币政策目标下的双目标制

货币政策目标是选择多重目标还是单一目标，决定于一国政治，经济与金融体制，根据我国政策，经济与金融体制及当前面临的经济形势与任务，我国货币政策目标应该是多重目标，其中主要是仙值稳定与经济增长。为了保证货币政策目标的实现，应该对币值稳定，经济增长两大目标加以量化，实施通货膨胀率，经济增长率双目标制。     

Threshold Effects on the Relationship Between Inflation Rate and Economic Growth in Tunisia

Using an econometric technique suggested by Hansen [(2001). The new econometrics of structural change: Dating breaks in U.S. Labor productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15, 117–128], this paper studies the inflation–economic growth nexus in the case of Tunisia for the 1993-01–2012-11 period. The results show that there is one inflation threshold value that does exist for Tunisia. This evidence strongly sustains the view that the relationship between inflation rate and economic growth is non-linear. The estimated threshold regression model suggests that a threshold value of inflation rate below 3.48% fosters economic growth. In addition, above this threshold level, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation rate and economic growth. These results have important implications to policy-makers who should pay attention to the inflation phenomena. Therefore, a new policy that takes into account such a threshold should be set up.     

An empirical evaluation of China’s monetary policies

This paper investigates the responsiveness of the Chinese government’s monetary policies in terms of the money supply and interest rates to economic conditions and the effectiveness of these policies in achieving the goals of stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation. We analyze the responsiveness and effectiveness by estimating the Taylor rule, the McCallum rule, and a vector autoregressive model using quarterly data in the period of 1992-2009. The results show that, overall, the monetary policy variables respond to economic growth and the inflation rate, but the magnitudes of the responses are much weaker than those observed in market economies. Money supply responded actively to both the inflation rate and the real output and had certain effects on the future inflation rates and real output. The official interest rates, on the other hand, responded passively to the inflation rate and did not respond to the real output. They do not have any effect on future inflation rates and real output either.     

Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach

This paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%.     

Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed

We propose an alternative way of estimating Taylor reaction functions if the zero‐lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. This approach relies on tackling the real rather than the nominal interest rate. So if the nominal rate is (close to) zero central banks can influence the inflation expectations via quantitative easing. The unobservable inflation expectations are estimated with a state‐space model that additionally generates a time varying series for the equilibrium real interest rate and the potential output — both needed for estimations of Taylor reaction functions. We test our approach for the ECB and the Fed within the recent crisis. We add other explanatory variables to this modified Taylor reaction function and show that there are substantial differences between the estimated reaction coefficients in the pre‐ and crisis era for both central banks. While the central banks on both sides of the Atlantic act less inertially, put a smaller weight on the inflation gap, money growth and the risk spread, the response to asset price inflation becomes more pronounced during the crisis. However, the central banks diverge in their response to the output gap and credit growth.     

中国货币供应、通货膨胀及经济增长关系实证研究

采用协整与方差分解的方法时中国货币供应、通货膨胀与经济增长的关系进行实证研究发现，通货膨胀与经济增长在短期和长期中作用关系相反，但都具有回归自然水平趋势，货币供应时通货膨胀和经济增长的影响具有滞后效应，长期内货币非中性。而通货膨胀和经济增长并不影响货币供应。一方面。应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率：另一方面，偏紧货币政策的滞后效应可能导致经济紧缩应当采取措施降低货币供应增长率，因此应谨慎调控宏观经济政策，以避免金融风险。     

我国M1货币政策中介目标的 一个合理选择

本文定义了货币M1的一个新增长率,以其值作为与实际经济增长率相适应的中介目标值;定义了货币M1的一个超额增长率,以其负值作为与通货膨胀率相适应的中介目标值;在此基础上,重新确定M1货币增长率的值作为中介目标值。实证表明在中国这样确定的货币政策中介目标值与经济增长和通货膨胀最终目标一致。     

Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach

The main objective of central banks around the world is the achievement and maintenance of price stability, which actually creates an environment conducive for faster economic growth. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth in order to make sound policies. If inflation is detrimental to economic growth, then policy makers should aim for low rates of inflation. This leads to a question; how low should the inflation rate be? Previous research in the non-linearities of the inflation–growth relationship has found that a positive relationship exists when the inflation rate is low and a negative relationship when the inflation rate is high. This implies the existence of a threshold level of inflation at which the sign switches. In this paper we use panel data for the period 1980–2008 to examine the inflation–growth nexus in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and to endogenously determine the threshold level of inflation. To deal with problems of endogeneity and heterogeneity, the paper uses the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method developed by González et al. (2005) to examine the non-linearities in the inflation–growth nexus. This technique further estimates the smoothness of the transition from a low inflation to a high inflation regime. The findings reveal a threshold level of 18.9%, above which inflation is detrimental to economic growth in the SADC region.     

中国通货膨胀率及其波动关系分析

有关通货膨胀率和通货膨胀率波动影响关系,存在F riedm an-B a ll和Cuk ierm an-M e ltzer两种假说,即存在通货膨胀率及其波动的相互影响关系。使用GARCH和TGARCH模型,选择中国1993~2004年月度通货膨胀率数据,检验结果表明F riedm an-B a ll假说成立,稳健的货币政策对经济发展有积极作用。     

基于VECM的治理通胀与经济发展协调性研究

笔者基于VECM模型对利率、汇率、货币供给、经济增长与通货膨胀之间的关系进行研究,发现它们之间存在协整关系,利率、汇率、货币供给增长率与通货膨胀具有双向影响关系,而经济增长率单向影响通货膨胀,利率不是经济增长率的格兰杰因,汇率、货币供应量增长率与经济增长率之间都不存在格兰杰因果关系,五个变量互相之间的作用都有较长滞后效应。通过深化改革、完善市场机制、转变经济增长方式可以保增长防通胀。     

影响人民币汇率变动长期因素的实证分析

随着中国经济的高速增长以及贸易顺差的逐年扩大,加之金融危机的余波尚未结束,人民币汇率问题成为世界关注的焦点。首先阐述了影响人民币汇率变动的长期因素,包括中国经济发展状况、国际收支及通货膨胀率,并分析了它们与汇率变动的关系。然后运用多元回归方法对这些影响因素与人民币汇率的相关性加以验证分析。