The Underlying Link between Fiscal Policy Patterns and International Reserves

This paper extends the model in Aizenman and Marion (2004 ) to study the underlying link and interaction between fiscal policy patterns and international reserves in developing countries. It shows that because of conditional access to international credit markets, the immediate impact of an adverse shock on an emerging economy is a lower level of international reserves and a procyclical fiscal policy. However, facing the uncertainty of future shocks, the authorities in this economy then have a strong incentive to hoard more precautionary reserves if possible. If the economy successfully accumulates more reserves, it can have a lower tax rate in the second period and its fiscal policy would be more countercyclical. The model's predictions are consistent with new empirical findings.     

发展中国家国际技术转移政策研究

不同的经济理论对技术及技术变迁问题有不同的认识,并且这些观点深刻地影响着发展中国家国际技术转移的过程。通过对当前比较有代表性的两种技术变迁理论——主流经济学技术变迁理论与演化经济学技术变迁理论的分析,指出它们对发展中国家制定国际技术转移政策的影响,并从中得出对我国制定国际技术转移政策的启示。     

政府间财政转移支付对发展中国家的启示

本文考察了在设计政府间财政转移支付制度中出现的一些核心问题，总结了许多国家采取的做法，并侧重于发展中国家的做法。由于国与国之间的情况和目标有差别，所以并不存在单一的、普遍适用的转移支付模式。但世界范围的经验表明，如果要提供更有效率的服务，转移支付必须这样设计：即接受转移支付的政府必须拥有清晰的授权、足够的资源以及充分的决策灵活性，并且要对结果负责。     

Is Fiscal Policy Sustainable in Developing Economies?

This paper investigates fiscal policy sustainability in Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Thailand, and Venezuela using competing methodologies. Standard unit roots and cointegration analyses do not endorse the validity of the intertemporal budget constraint. In contrast, to varying degrees across countries, alternative testing employing a fiscal policy reaction function indicates sustainability defined as surplus adjustments in response to higher debt‐to‐income ratios. Corresponding debt‐dynamics analyses show that corrective measures were put in place to revert non‐sustainable trends in government debt. However, ancillary variables in the debt modeling produce statistically weak evidence of procyclical fiscal behavior in the Latin American countries.     

Profit-Sharing and International Capital Mobility in Developing Countries

This paper uses a general equilibrium model incorporating rural–urban migration to analyze and contrast the short- and long-run effects of profit-sharing. Specifically examined are the effects of profit-sharing on rural–urban migration, the degree of competition among urban firms, and international mobility of capital. It is found that although profit-sharing may raise urban employment in the short run, the scheme reduces urban employment and lowers the inflow of foreign capital in the long run.     

Aid, Economic Reform, and Public Sector Fiscal Behavior in Developing Countries

This paper looks at interactions between foreign development aid, economic reform, and public sector fiscal behavior. It proposes a model of the public sector fiscal response to aid inflows, which allows for changes in structural relationships due to an exogenously imposed program of economic reform. This model is applied to 1960–99 time series data for the Philippines, which embarked on an IMF- and World Bank-funded structural adjustment program in 1980. Estimates of structural and reduced-form equations paint a dismal picture of the effectiveness of foreign aid to, and the structural adjustment program in, the Philippines so far as fiscal impacts are concerned. Both bilateral and multilateral aid inflows, and the presence of an economic reform program, are associated with decreases in public fixed capital expenditure, decreases in taxation and other recurrent revenue, and decreases in public sector saving. Multilateral aid also appears to be highly fungible.     

发展中国家非自愿移民政策比较研究

工程移民问题是制约中国工程建设的一个重要难题,特别是水利水电工程移民由于其数量庞大更是成为制约工程进度的瓶颈,本文通过对世界上主要发展中国家移民政策的考察和比较,从法律框架、行动计划、组织机构、补偿安置、后期支持和文化保护等方面研究了它们政策的利弊得失,从而将Scudder-Colson的"四步法移民模型"扩展到六个方面.     

Environmental Policy in Developing Countries: A Dynamic Analysis

A dynamic model is constructed of the environmental policy formulation process in a stylized developing country (DC). The paper analyzes the employment and output effects of three pollution control policies. These policies embody different assumptions about the DC government's ability to commit to its announced course of action. The timepath of the government's policy variable is characterized. Optimality calls for an activist policy, irrespective of the length of time to which the government can commit to its announced policy. However, the effects of this activist policy depend fundamentally on the government's period of commitment.     

出口导向贸易政策与发展中国家间FDI竞争——基于寡占竞争模型的理论分析

文章建立了一个两国竞争模型,重点分析了进口关税与出口补贴等战略贸易政策对发展中国家吸引FDI竞争的影响。研究发现:(1)当两国都采取出口补贴的外资激励政策时,工资水平和进口关税对发展中国家间FDI竞争并没有直接影响;(2)对全要素生产率较高的国家来说,当两国的关税水平都较高时,出口补贴政策增加流向本国的FDI,而当两国关税水平大幅下降后,出口补贴政策反而不利于本国FDI竞争。文章的结论对当前我国战略引资和出口退税等政策的调整具有重大的指导意义。     

发展中国家国际技术转移模式的分类及评价

技术转移模式的选择对发展中国家国际技术转移的成效有重要影响.以是否以市场为媒介,是否将技术作为直接的转移目标作为分类标准,发展中国家的技术转移模式可以分为以市场为媒介的正式的技术转移模式和非市场媒介的非正式的技术转移模式.不同的技术转移模式适用于不同技术的转移,包含着不同的技术学习方式.随着技术的发展,非市场媒介的非正式的技术转移模式正表现出优势.     

战略贸易政策新进展与发展中国家贸易政策

通过对战略贸易政策在贸易的政治经济学、不确定性、不完全承诺和不完全信息等四个方面的新进展进行讨论,得出结论:新贸易理论的新进展使得脱胎于发达国家的战略贸易政策更加接近发展中国家市场经常失灵的现实,从而对发展中国家的贸易政策有重要的指导意义。     

比较优势原则的发展与发展中国家贸易政策的选择

国际贸易理论的发展,就其本质而言,是对比较优势原则由“肯定”到“否定”,再到“否定之否定”的辩证发展 过程,是比较优势原则由静态到动态、由短期到长期的过程;而国际贸易政策围绕“最优贸易政策”的选择,也相应经历了 “自由贸易”到“保护贸易”再到“新保护贸易”（或“战略贸易”、“管理贸易”）的螺旋上升过程。发展中国家应从本国国情出 发,依据贸易理论发展的内在逻辑,制定出相应的切合本国实际的贸易政策。     

发展中国家高等教育财政的国际比较

随着综合国力的增强和经济水平的提高,广大发展中国家的高等教育事业也有了突飞猛进的发展.部分发展中国家的教育财政在其高等教育发展中起着至关重要的作用.特别是印度、智利和巴西等高等教育比较发达的发展中国家,在高等教育财政拨款体制、经费筹措、成本回收、财政管理等方面各具特色.相较美、日、英等发达国家而言,这些发展中国家在高等教育财政发展与改革问题上的经验与教训对同样是发展中国家的中国更有参照和借鉴意义.本文通过这种国际间的经验比较,拓宽中国高等教育财政改革的思路,以期对中国高等教育事业的发展带来有益的启示.     

International Integration and Growth: A Further Investigation on Developing Countries

The paper examines empirically the linkages between international integration and economic growth in a panel of 47 developing countries and 18 trade blocs over the period 1970–1989. Specifically, it attempts to identify through which channel(s) – notably, specialization according to comparative advantage and increased efficiency, exploitation of increasing returns from larger market, and technology spillovers through investment and trade–trade blocs can affect the economic growth of their member countries. The results suggest that (1) intra-bloc trade does not affect growth significantly; (2) income diversion among member countries contributes positively and significantly to growth; and (3) the size of the trade bloc does matter in the sense that the bigger is not always the better for the welfare of the member countries.     

实施积极财政政策向可持续财政政策转型的构想

积极财政政策虽然在扩大内需上已经有所作为，但由于其负面作用的存在而不具有可持续性。为实现我国可持续发展的长期战略要求，我们应当适时实施由积极财政政策向可持续财政政策的转变。因此，应当对现行的财政支出政策进行调整，防范直接与间接财政风险的扩大化，完善现行税制，运用财政政策促进人力资本可持续发展。     

我国财政改革和政策实践研究

本文回顾了我国财政改革、财政政策演进历程,揭示了财政政策演进规律,探讨了财政政策宏观调控实践经验。研究发现:首先,与一般市场经济国家不同,我国财政政策从概念认识、实践启动、到运用技术日臻成熟,走出了一条缓解经济危机实现经济稳定、调节经济结构转变经济增长方式、化解民生难题促进社会和谐的独特之路。在这一过程中,财政政策更加注重供给管理。其次,在当前体制转轨背景下,我国财政政策突显出公共性和体制转型双重特征。最后,面对未来,我们需要在财政政策如何更好遵循市场经济规律;财政政策目标如何更聚焦于未来发展战略,如何推进财政改革以确保财政政策调控更具效力等方面总结更多的经验。     

Fiscal Policy in Oil‐exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality

Oil‐exporting countries face challenges in the conduct of fiscal policy owing to volatile oil revenues, especially in countries with weak institutions. Many oil exporters have established oil funds to delink government expenditure from oil revenues; however, their effectiveness remains unresolved. This paper examines the roles of oil funds and institutional quality in reducing fiscal procyclicality and macroeconomic volatility in 42 oil‐exporting countries from 1960 to 2014 using panel vector autoregression techniques. The results show that oil funds are effective in reducing fiscal procyclicality in countries with high institutional quality. There is also a reduction in the procyclical bias in those with low institutional quality but the statistical evidence is weak. Nevertheless, oil funds are associated with reduced volatility of government consumption and the real exchange rate in countries with low institutional quality. These findings give credence to the macroeconomic stabilization role of oil funds but also reinforce the importance of good institutions.