基于简化利润函数的伯川德博弈模型的技术创新扩散讨论

通过在伯川德模型利润函数中引入学习影响、溢出因子等,实现了该模型的改进和简化.结合简化后的支付矩阵对企业创新采用策略进行了分析,得出了在学习能力强、溢出度高的环境下,延迟采用策略可以减低企业的采用成本.     

基于技术创新扩散环境的Bass扩散模型修正研究

对技术创新扩散环境进行了界定和分类,并就环境因素对技术创新扩散的影响进行了分析,得出由于环境的不确定性决定了技术创新扩散轨迹的不稳定性的结论。在此基础上,从环境因素的影响入手,分别对基本的Bass模型和扩展的Bass模型进行了修正,并对新模型的性质进行了分析。     

Technology adoption and accumulation in a vintage-capital model

We present a model of capital accumulation and technology adoption in a vintage-capital framework. The model is an infinite-horizon/infinite-dimensional optimal control model: the firm employs a continuum of technologies (a continuum of heterogeneous capital goods). Capital goods are technology specific, their technology is related to vintage and technology progress. The entrepreneur maximizes the profits obtained by employing a continuum of technologies under the assumption of constant returns to scale and bearing adjustment costs for gross investments. The diffusion of a new technology is established by allowing the entrepreneur to invest in vintage capital goods.     

技术创新扩散的学习论

从个体和组织两个方面对学习问题进行了阐述,认为技术创新扩散的S型曲线完全可以用学习理论加以解释,其中模仿学习和干中学是技术创新扩散学习理论两种主要形式,提出掌握学习理论,研究这些学习形式对技术创新的有效扩散很有意义。     

Learning by doing,organizational forgetting,and the business cycle

This paper supplements a learning-by-doing real business cycle model with endogenous organizational forgetting. Empirical evidence shows that the accumulated experience decay rate is not constant over the business cycle, but that forgetting is a function of economic activity. Learning reinforces the effects of productivity shocks, and organizational forgetting exacerbates their impact and increases their persistence. This is of particular interest when a negative productivity shock hits the economy, as the increasing speed of forgetting aggravates the negative shock and delays recovery.     

Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation–Diffusion Model

The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector. We derive a simultaneous model of wind power innovation and diffusion, which combines a rational choice model of technological diffusion and a learning curve model of dynamic cost reductions. These models are estimated using pooled annual time series data for four European countries (Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) over the time period 1986–2000. The empirical results indicate that reductions in investment costs have been important determinants of increased diffusion of wind power, and these cost reductions can in turn be explained by learning activities and public R&D support. Feed-in tariffs also play an important role in the innovation and diffusion processes. The higher is the feed-in price the higher is, ceteris paribus, the rate of diffusion, and we present some preliminary empirical support for the notion that the impact on diffusion of a marginal increase in the feed-in tariff will differ depending on the support system used. High feed-in tariffs, though, also have a negative effect on cost reductions as they induce wind generators to choose high-cost sites and provide fewer incentives for cost cuts. This illustrates the importance of designing an efficient wind energy support system, which not only promotes diffusion but also provides continuous incentives for cost-reducing innovations.      

中国经济增长模型的设定:1952—1998

现代经济增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长吗 ?如果能 ,那么哪类经济增长理论能比较好地刻画我国的经济增长呢 ?围绕这些问题 ,本文从实证和理论两个方面展开讨论。在实证上 ,本文采用Jones( 1 995)实证检验新增长理论的方法 ,针对各类经济增长理论的核心特征 ,实证分析了 1 952— 1 998年间我国经济增长的典型事实 ,结果发现这些典型事实明显地拒绝了新古典增长理论和R&D类型增长理论 ,相对而言 ,比较支持AK类型增长理论。另外 ,我们还发现以综合要素生产率测量的技术进步 ,不是我国1 952—1 998年间经济增长的引擎。在理论上 ,本文从“边干边学”的角度 ,把“探索适合我国国情的经济建设道路”纳入经济增长模型 ,证明了其本身可以作为我国经济增长的引擎 ;同时回答了为什么AK类型增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长。     

WTO规则与大国开放竞争的后发优势战略

尽管我们无法从国外引进尖端核心技术,但是可以引进中间技术,较快地提升我国的技术水平。自主创新能力是在技术引进和模仿的过程中通过边干边学逐渐培育起来的。受WTO规则的约束,韩国式保护主义的发展已无可能,只能实施开放竞争的发展战略。大国优势的存在,使得开放竞争不会导致依附性的发展。给民营企业公平竞争的待遇,创造一个激烈竞争的市场环境,是自主创新战略成功的关键。     

Demand forecasting for multigenerational products combining discrete choice and dynamics of diffusion under technological trajectories

The discrete choice model generally captures consumers' valuation of the product's quality within the framework of a cross-sectional analysis, while the diffusion model captures the dynamics of demand within the framework of a time-series analysis. We propose an adjusted discrete choice model that incorporates the choice behavior of the consumer into the dynamics of product diffusion. In addition, a new estimation structure is proposed, within the framework of the time-series analysis, which enables the estimation of the discrete choice model on market-level data to be performed in such a way as to avoid the problem of price endogeneity and to obtain greater flexibility in forecasting demand. As an empirical application, the suggested model is applied to the case of the worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) market. In forecasting future demand of DRAM generations, we integrate Moore's law and learning by doing to reflect the future technological trajectories of DRAM innovations, as well as consumers' consumption trends to reflect the dynamics of demand environments. As a result, the suggested model shows better performance in explaining the diffusion of new-generation product with limited number of data observations.     

再论创新特征对技术扩散的影响

根据协调博弈模型,通过技术创新特征(产品性能、消费者异质性)刻画出技术创新扩散阈值函数,并根据技术创新扩散阈值概率分布的分析结论,来讨论产品性能和消费者异质性对技术创新扩散的影响,其目的是为处于不同市场位置的企业制度创新产品市场进入策略提供指导。     

技术扩散对高新技术企业布局的影响

借助全球技术转移资料,特别是张江高科技园区实地调查资料,通过分析技术在空间上的移动过程,指出,只有同时具备较高的技术势能、与技术合作伙伴之间较短的距离、便捷的通道3方面的条件,技术扩散才能顺利进行。并以上海市张江高科技园区为例,分析了高新技术企业宏观和微观的技术区位要求,为了解我国高新技术园区技术扩散现状,提出优化高新技术企业技术区位的方案提供有力的理论支撑。     

The Production Life Cycle

Tasks in production have different dynamics from individuals products. We build a general equilibrium model where three forces (i.e., offshoring, learning, and wage) interact to determine how production fragmentation evolves over time. We show that the production process follows a life cycle: its fragmentation emerges, deepens, and converges. Our model is stylized and versatile, and it can be used to tractably characterize the loci of global output, productivity, welfare, and value‐added distribution as production fragmentation progresses.     

技术选择、技术扩散与经济收敛

Lin(1994,1996a,b,1999,2001)的技术选择假说认为一个国家的经济结构是由其要素禀赋结构内生决定的.一个发展中国家政府所采取的发展战略如背离了最优的技术选择将影响该国的经济增长速度及是否能够向发达国家的收入水平收敛.本文构建了一个增长函数,除技术选择外,还同时考虑地理位置、政府质量等因素在长期内对各国全要素生产率(TFP)的影响.我们用跨国数据对该模型进行估计,检验影响长期TFP差异的各种假说,结果支持Lin的技术选择假说、Sachs et al.(1995,1999)的地理位置假说,但结果未支持政府质量假说.     

Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth

We construct a model that combines elements of endogenousgrowth with the convergence implications of the neoclassicalgrowth model. In the long run, the world growth rate is drivenby discoveries in the technologically leading economies. Followersconverge toward the leaders because copying is cheaper than innovationover some range. A tendency for copying costs to increase reducesfollowers growth rates and thereby generates a pattern of conditionalconvergence. We discuss how countries are selected to be technologicalleaders, and we assess welfare implications. Poorly defined intellectualproperty rights imply that leaders have insufficient incentiveto invent and followers have excessive incentive to copy.     

农作物新品种技术扩散机理与模式研究

农作物新品种的技术扩散不仅仅是新技术的推广过程,更关系到农业的可持续发展,关乎国计民生,因此必须重视农作物新品种在技术扩散过程中存在的问题并加以有效解决。通过研究农作物新品种技术的扩散机理与新品种扩散的几种常见模式,并针对现行的几种模式提出建议,为新品种的技术扩散提供借鉴。     

Diffusion of steam-powered firefighting equipment in the United States: innovation adoption at the municipal level

To date, econometrics-based diffusion studies have focused almost exclusively on the timing of adoption of new technology by firms and individuals. While there are detailed case studies on the evolution of firefighting for some of the largest U.S. cities in the nineteenth century, ours is the first formal econometric diffusion study of the timing of adoption of steam-powered, firefighting engines, whose first adoption was an important initial step in the evolution from independent volunteer fire departments to centralized control at the municipal level. We find evidence that the amount of manufacturing capital at risk of fire loss played a crucial role in influencing the timing of initial adoptions of this technology. This is consistent with the argument that increased industrialization in large cities was conducive to the growth in capital-intensive firefighting and centralized control of fire departments in urban America during this period.     

跨国公司发展的新特征及其对技术扩散的影响

跨国公司全球生产经营活动中的技术扩散对东道国尤其是发展中国家的技术进步具有重要的意义；20世纪90年代以来，跨国公司产生了一系列新的发展变化，这些新的发展变化对其技术扩散也产生了一定的影响；研究了当前跨国公司发展的新特征，分析了其对技术扩散所产生的影响，并提出了促进技术扩散和提高我国企业技术水平的一些对策。     

产业集群技术扩散机制存在的问题及对策

有效的技术扩散方式和机制是激发我国产业集群发展活力和竞争力的重要因素。以浙江为例,对我国产业集群背景下的技术创新扩散机制进行了分析,指出了当前产业集群在技术创新扩散机制方面存在的问题,提出了促进我国产业集群内技术创新扩散的对策建议。     

The Diffusion of Biological Waste-Water Treatment Plants in the Dutch Food and Beverage Industry

This article develops an economic model of environmental technology adoption decisions. The model is applied econometrically to the diffusion of biological waste-water treatment plants in the Dutch food and beverage industry. It shows that it is possible to explain the overall diffusion pattern of biological waste-water treatment plants in terms of a rational choice model in which prospective adopters trade off the costs of effluent treatment against the savings on effluent tax payments. Effluent charges are shown to be a significant positive factor in the timing of adoption of biological effluent treatment plants. This result is brought out by both the rational choice and the epidemic models. None of the models however can explain year-to-year changes in the ownership of biological waste-water treatment plants during the 1974–91 period, which suggests that there are other factors, not included in the model, that affect the timing of adoption.