基于技术创新扩散环境的Bass扩散模型修正研究

对技术创新扩散环境进行了界定和分类,并就环境因素对技术创新扩散的影响进行了分析,得出由于环境的不确定性决定了技术创新扩散轨迹的不稳定性的结论。在此基础上,从环境因素的影响入手,分别对基本的Bass模型和扩展的Bass模型进行了修正,并对新模型的性质进行了分析。     

Technology adoption and accumulation in a vintage-capital model

We present a model of capital accumulation and technology adoption in a vintage-capital framework. The model is an infinite-horizon/infinite-dimensional optimal control model: the firm employs a continuum of technologies (a continuum of heterogeneous capital goods). Capital goods are technology specific, their technology is related to vintage and technology progress. The entrepreneur maximizes the profits obtained by employing a continuum of technologies under the assumption of constant returns to scale and bearing adjustment costs for gross investments. The diffusion of a new technology is established by allowing the entrepreneur to invest in vintage capital goods.     

Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation–Diffusion Model

The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector. We derive a simultaneous model of wind power innovation and diffusion, which combines a rational choice model of technological diffusion and a learning curve model of dynamic cost reductions. These models are estimated using pooled annual time series data for four European countries (Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) over the time period 1986–2000. The empirical results indicate that reductions in investment costs have been important determinants of increased diffusion of wind power, and these cost reductions can in turn be explained by learning activities and public R&D support. Feed-in tariffs also play an important role in the innovation and diffusion processes. The higher is the feed-in price the higher is, ceteris paribus, the rate of diffusion, and we present some preliminary empirical support for the notion that the impact on diffusion of a marginal increase in the feed-in tariff will differ depending on the support system used. High feed-in tariffs, though, also have a negative effect on cost reductions as they induce wind generators to choose high-cost sites and provide fewer incentives for cost cuts. This illustrates the importance of designing an efficient wind energy support system, which not only promotes diffusion but also provides continuous incentives for cost-reducing innovations.      

中国经济增长模型的设定:1952—1998

现代经济增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长吗 ?如果能 ,那么哪类经济增长理论能比较好地刻画我国的经济增长呢 ?围绕这些问题 ,本文从实证和理论两个方面展开讨论。在实证上 ,本文采用Jones( 1 995)实证检验新增长理论的方法 ,针对各类经济增长理论的核心特征 ,实证分析了 1 952— 1 998年间我国经济增长的典型事实 ,结果发现这些典型事实明显地拒绝了新古典增长理论和R&D类型增长理论 ,相对而言 ,比较支持AK类型增长理论。另外 ,我们还发现以综合要素生产率测量的技术进步 ,不是我国1 952—1 998年间经济增长的引擎。在理论上 ,本文从“边干边学”的角度 ,把“探索适合我国国情的经济建设道路”纳入经济增长模型 ,证明了其本身可以作为我国经济增长的引擎 ;同时回答了为什么AK类型增长理论能够刻画我国的经济增长。     

Demand forecasting for multigenerational products combining discrete choice and dynamics of diffusion under technological trajectories

The discrete choice model generally captures consumers' valuation of the product's quality within the framework of a cross-sectional analysis, while the diffusion model captures the dynamics of demand within the framework of a time-series analysis. We propose an adjusted discrete choice model that incorporates the choice behavior of the consumer into the dynamics of product diffusion. In addition, a new estimation structure is proposed, within the framework of the time-series analysis, which enables the estimation of the discrete choice model on market-level data to be performed in such a way as to avoid the problem of price endogeneity and to obtain greater flexibility in forecasting demand. As an empirical application, the suggested model is applied to the case of the worldwide DRAM (dynamic random access memory) market. In forecasting future demand of DRAM generations, we integrate Moore's law and learning by doing to reflect the future technological trajectories of DRAM innovations, as well as consumers' consumption trends to reflect the dynamics of demand environments. As a result, the suggested model shows better performance in explaining the diffusion of new-generation product with limited number of data observations.     

WTO规则与大国开放竞争的后发优势战略

尽管我们无法从国外引进尖端核心技术,但是可以引进中间技术,较快地提升我国的技术水平。自主创新能力是在技术引进和模仿的过程中通过边干边学逐渐培育起来的。受WTO规则的约束,韩国式保护主义的发展已无可能,只能实施开放竞争的发展战略。大国优势的存在,使得开放竞争不会导致依附性的发展。给民营企业公平竞争的待遇,创造一个激烈竞争的市场环境,是自主创新战略成功的关键。     

技术选择、技术扩散与经济收敛

Lin(1994,1996a,b,1999,2001)的技术选择假说认为一个国家的经济结构是由其要素禀赋结构内生决定的.一个发展中国家政府所采取的发展战略如背离了最优的技术选择将影响该国的经济增长速度及是否能够向发达国家的收入水平收敛.本文构建了一个增长函数,除技术选择外,还同时考虑地理位置、政府质量等因素在长期内对各国全要素生产率(TFP)的影响.我们用跨国数据对该模型进行估计,检验影响长期TFP差异的各种假说,结果支持Lin的技术选择假说、Sachs et al.(1995,1999)的地理位置假说,但结果未支持政府质量假说.     

Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth

We construct a model that combines elements of endogenousgrowth with the convergence implications of the neoclassicalgrowth model. In the long run, the world growth rate is drivenby discoveries in the technologically leading economies. Followersconverge toward the leaders because copying is cheaper than innovationover some range. A tendency for copying costs to increase reducesfollowers growth rates and thereby generates a pattern of conditionalconvergence. We discuss how countries are selected to be technologicalleaders, and we assess welfare implications. Poorly defined intellectualproperty rights imply that leaders have insufficient incentiveto invent and followers have excessive incentive to copy.     

农作物新品种技术扩散机理与模式研究

农作物新品种的技术扩散不仅仅是新技术的推广过程,更关系到农业的可持续发展,关乎国计民生,因此必须重视农作物新品种在技术扩散过程中存在的问题并加以有效解决。通过研究农作物新品种技术的扩散机理与新品种扩散的几种常见模式,并针对现行的几种模式提出建议,为新品种的技术扩散提供借鉴。     

产业集群技术扩散机制存在的问题及对策

有效的技术扩散方式和机制是激发我国产业集群发展活力和竞争力的重要因素。以浙江为例,对我国产业集群背景下的技术创新扩散机制进行了分析,指出了当前产业集群在技术创新扩散机制方面存在的问题,提出了促进我国产业集群内技术创新扩散的对策建议。     

The Diffusion of Biological Waste-Water Treatment Plants in the Dutch Food and Beverage Industry

This article develops an economic model of environmental technology adoption decisions. The model is applied econometrically to the diffusion of biological waste-water treatment plants in the Dutch food and beverage industry. It shows that it is possible to explain the overall diffusion pattern of biological waste-water treatment plants in terms of a rational choice model in which prospective adopters trade off the costs of effluent treatment against the savings on effluent tax payments. Effluent charges are shown to be a significant positive factor in the timing of adoption of biological effluent treatment plants. This result is brought out by both the rational choice and the epidemic models. None of the models however can explain year-to-year changes in the ownership of biological waste-water treatment plants during the 1974–91 period, which suggests that there are other factors, not included in the model, that affect the timing of adoption.     

试论韩非的技术价值思想

韩非重视技术,认为技术具有重要的经济价值、政治价值和军事价值,持工具主义的技术价值观。韩非认为,"缘道理以从事"是技术实践的根据,"以功用为之的彀"是技术实践的目的,"参伍之验"是技术实践的标准,"以规矩为度"技术实践的规范。     

基于垂直产品差异的技术扩散分析

针对网络外部性和产品差异程度在新产品技术扩散中的作用,采用垂直产品差异分析框架和动态分析方法,分析了在双寡头垄断环境中新技术在不同条件下的扩散路径。研究结果表明:当产品差异-外部性系数(即网络外部性强度和产品差异程度之比)较小时,新技术总能够在市场中成功生存,特别是当消费者偏好差异不是很大时,新技术最终能够垄断整个市场;当该系数较大时,只有当新技术期初的网络规模超越了一定阀值后,它才能在市场中成功扩散。厂商可根据产品差异-外部性系数、期初网络规模铺设成本及新技术在市场中生存的期限等因素选择最佳的新技术扩散路径。     

技术扩散过程中农民经营行为转变的实证分析

新型农业技术的开发和应用是农业长期发展的核心条件,而转变农民接受和使用农业技术的行为则成为农业技术扩散的核心工作。笔者在管理心理学及技术接受模型的基础上构建了农业技术接受和使用的整合理论(UTAUAT)模型,并采用因子分析对模型进行修正,提取了绩效期望、风险预测、信息因子及条件因子四个决定农民行为意愿的公共因子。另外,笔者用Delphi法和AHP分析法分析了模型中各公共因子受农民年龄、性别和学历等人口特征的影响程度和影响方向。模型解释了在技术扩散中农民经营行为的转变困境,并依此提出了相应政策建议,以期为促进中国农业发展提供理论基础。     

高职高专“数字电子技术”课程教学改革探讨

数字电子技术是高职电子类专业中一门重要的职业基础课程,应用性很强,对于学生电子技术基本素质和基本技能的培养至关重要。结合高职高专教育的特点和要求,从课程设计、教学模式的实施等方面进行数字电子技术课程教学改革方法的详细介绍。通过近几年的教学实践,取得了良好的教学效果。     

珠三角产业集群发展中技术创新与扩散

特色产业集群蕴含着一个经济区域的核心竞争力.珠三角各主要城市的核心竞争力,来自于根植性极强的专业镇和产业集群.不断地进行技术创新是提升区域核心竞争力的有效途径,但技术的公地悲剧难题使产业集群的创新动力弱化.为此,有必要加强政府主导下的技术创新与扩散.