Marriage equality and interstate migration

This study examines the impact of state imposed, marriage equality laws on interstate migration prior to the 26 June 2015 U.S. Supreme Court ruling to legalize same-sex marriage in all states. Results of the estimation of a series of probit models suggest that all head of households are more likely to leave states without marriage equality. This estimated impact is significantly larger for household heads in same-sex relationships. When examining the migration choices separately by both sex and relationship type, this result remains significant for female heads of households in different-sex relationships and male heads of households in same-sex relationships. Simulations, using the results of the probit estimations, the analysis of regional trends, and recent rebellions against the Supreme Court ruling indicate that state level, marriage equality laws may be aggravating the imbalanced distribution of same- and different-sex couple households across the country.     

Marriage, Divorce and Reciprocity-based Cooperation

This paper considers partnership formation, partnership dissolution and reciprocity‐based cooperation by couples in the form of voluntary transfers to smooth consumption. While risk sharing is one benefit of having a partner, it is also limited by the (endogenous) risk of separation. The equilibrium formation and dissolution of partnerships are determined simultaneously with cooperative behavior. Publicly provided earnings insurance is shown to increase the “turnover” rate in the marriage market as well as to reduce the steady‐state marriage rate and the implicit financial cooperation between partners.     

人口流动推动了企业异地并购吗

本文以中国企业异地并购事件为研究对象,采用全国人口普查的微观数据,考察人口流动对企业并购的影响。结果表明,地级市之间流动人口的增加可以显著提高人口迁入地企业在迁出地进行并购投资的规模,且这一推动作用在高学历流动人口和从事金融行业的流动人口中更为明显。进一步研究发现,当目标公司所在地（人口迁出地）投资者保护程度越差、市场化程度越低、传统儒家文化越浓厚或当代文化包容度越低时,流动人口对企业异地并购的推动作用越强。本文揭示出流动人口可帮助企业在异地并购中消除投资壁垒,为户籍政策调整和促进企业跨区域投资提供了重要的政策启示。     

CROSS‐BORDER MARRIAGE COSTS AND MARRIAGE BEHAVIOR: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This article analyzes cross‐border marriages between mainland China and Hong Kong (HK). We examine the effects of a reduction in cross‐border marriage costs following an increase in marriage‐migration quotas and the handover of HK to China. We find that cross‐border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the HK attribute distribution. We also find that HK women's position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross‐border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior. These outcomes are consistent with our matching model.     

中国未来婚姻挤压研究

中国的男孩偏好和对女孩的歧视导致了男性婚姻挤压。在潜在初婚比模型的基础上,使用标准化初婚频率和去进度效应方法设计了两种新的模型,并与现有模型结合,研究中国婚姻挤压状况。在潜在初婚比基础上开发的模型所得到的结论基本相同。2016年到2046年的30年时间里,婚姻市场上男性和女性的潜在初婚比都在1.15以上;2060年之后保持在1.05-1.08水平。从2000年开始,中国会面临严重的男性婚姻挤压,2016年至2046年平均每年过剩男性在120-150万之间,2060年之后每年在50万之下。如果出生性别比得不到有效控制,则未来男性婚姻挤压情况将严重得多。     

Migration,social security,and economic growth

This paper studies the effect of population aging and international migration on economic performance. Fertility is endogenized so that immigrants and natives can have different fertility rates, which provides a more realistic view of policy effects. Fertility is an important determinant to the tax burden of social security since it affects the quantity and quality of future tax payers. We find that introducing immigrants into the economy can reduce the tax burden of social security. If the survival probability of young agents to old age (or the replacement ratio) is high enough, the growth rate of GDP per worker for an economy with international migration will be higher than for a closed economy. Regarding migration policies, our numerical results indicate that economic growth rate of GDP per worker will first decrease then increase as the flow of immigrants increases. Attracting more skilled immigrants will enhance economic growth.     

The Effect of Education on the Timing of Marriage and First Birth in Pakistan

A rapid rise in women’s education levels, an increase in the age at marriage and an increase in the age at which they have their first child are key features of demographic transition in any country. Education is considered to be an essential component in this process because increases in educational attainment are likely to significantly affect both age at marriage and the duration between marriage and first birth - in particular increasing both the age at marriage and the time to first child. This paper uses individual level unit record data from Pakistan to examine the effect of education on the age at marriage and on the duration between marriage and first birth. We jointly estimate educational attainment, age at marriage and duration between marriage and first birth allowing for household level unobserved heterogeneity. We find that educational attainment increases the age at marriage but does not have a statistically significant effect on the duration between marriage and first birth. However, there is a threshold level of education that must be attained before educational attainment starts having an effect on the hazard of marriage.

     

The role of social networks in determining migration and labour market outcomes

This paper empirically examines social network explanations for migration decisions in the context of German reunification. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel, we first show that the presence of a family in West Germany is an important predictor for the migration hazard rate of East Germans. We then explore whether pre‐migration networks have a discernible impact on the economic and social assimilation of East German immigrants in West Germany. We find that East German immigrants are more likely to be employed and to hold higher paying jobs when socially connected to the West prior to emigrating.     

Forecasting Australian Marriage Rates*

The paper discusses the problem of modelling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting. Two empirical model selection procedures are applied to suggest final form forecasting equations for Australian marriage rates. The suggested models are then assessed by comparing their post-sample forecast performance with that of univariate ARMA-type models of marriage rates which are regarded as approximations to marriage rate final equation models. In this instance the ARM A models are preferred for forecasting purposes. The properties of the ARM A model forecasts are then examined and the modelling strategy is contrasted with the regression method used by Withers.     

The effect of public financial aid on dropout from and completion of university education: evidence from a student grant reform

There is limited and uncertain evidence on how financial aid affects dropout from or the completion of higher education. A large-scale reform of the Danish student grant and loan system that among others increased student grants by up to $3,000 per year (57 %) was used to identify causal effects of financial aid on outcomes for university students. Estimates were obtained from year-of-study specific models for students observed just before and after the reform, controlling for student, parental and labour-market characteristics. The estimates indicate that the reform lowered dropout rates, but had no overall effect on completion rates, although with substantial variation across population subgroups. The impact on dropout rates was found to be higher for students from a lower socio-economic background and the impact on completion rates was found to be higher three years after the designated study time to completion. The reform seems to have performed as intended by increasing the take-up of student grants and lowering work hours while studying.     

科技人才组织领地行为如何影响其离职意向

基于资源保存理论视角,以科技人才为研究对象,关注其组织领地行为对离职意向的影响机制,并探究心理所有权的中介作用、婚姻的调节作用以及婚姻与心理所有权共同产生的被调节的中介作用。建立基于科技人才婚姻情况与心理所有权的被调节的中介作用模型,运用问卷调查方法收集全国各地高新技术企业、高等院校、科研院所等科技人才共411份有效问卷,展开实证分析。结果表明：不考虑婚姻的调节作用时,科技人才组织领地行为对离职意向的直接影响不显著,心理所有权对这种直接影响也无中介作用;考虑到婚姻的调节作用,未婚群体的组织领地行为越强,离职意向越强烈;在被调节的中介作用模型中,婚姻状况在心理所有权对组织领地行为与离职意向间的中介作用起到了调节作用,具体表现为未婚群体组织领地行为通过组织心理所有权的部分中介作用负向影响离职意向,通过直接影响机制正向影响离职意向。     

Women's Employment in Japan and the Timing of Marriage and Childbirth

This paper uses Japanese panel data to examine empirically the effect of changes in labour market conditions and income in the timing of marriage, childbirth and employment. The main findings are that a high unemployment rate at the time of graduation tends to speed up the timing of marriage and childbirth, whereas an increase in the unemployment rate in the years after graduation delays the timing of marriage and childbirth. These results suggest that in Japan decisions are more likely to be based upon major changes such as those in employment opportunities than on fluctuations in the wage rate.
JEL Classification Numbers: J1, J2.     

A life-cycle model of outmigration and economic assimilation of immigrants in Germany

This paper estimates a forward-looking life-cycle model of outmigration and labor force participation. The estimated model is used to evaluate the impact of enforcing a maximum stay duration for newly admitted immigrants on labor force participation and outmigration. Restricting the migration duration is found to have little effect on the labor force participation of skilled immigrants, and a negative effect on that of unskilled immigrants. Restricting the migration duration is also found to encourage the departure of unskilled and unsuccessful immigrants before the maximum duration is reached. These results are obtained by estimating the model with data that contain no information on outmigration decisions. It is shown that the assumption of a continuous state variable affecting attrition only through outmigration allows the probability of outmigration to be identified from the panel attrition. This probability can then be estimated using standard dynamic programming techniques. The migration durations so estimated are found to differ substantially from those estimated under the assumption that immigrants are myopic decision makers.     

理想家庭、婚姻制度与司法程序——对我国婚姻家庭制度与生活实践相关性的反思

婚姻家庭本身具有建构性。改革开放以来,面对我国婚姻家庭生活的急剧变化,婚姻家庭制度的规范力和塑造力弱化,制度变革体现为对生活实践变化的被动接受,继而加剧了婚姻解体的趋势。当下极有必要反思婚姻家庭制度与生活实践的相关性问题,这涉及婚姻家庭理想模式建构、制度规范重构以及婚姻家庭纠纷审理的司法程序设计等内容。     

Marriage Settlements

French couples may choose between two types of marriage settlements governing asset ownership after a divorce or inheritance: common property or separate property. A cooperative model considers the marriage contract as a means of providing for widowhood of the less endowed spouse. A second model addresses the probability of divorce and the production of a marriage good. The common property contract then becomes a means of inducing the wife to invest in the marriage good. Choice of contract, labor supply and fertility are simultaneous. Empirically we find that characteristics of the spouses such as relative age or differences in endowments influence the choice. So do the expected number of children and the wife's labor supply decision. This last decision is also shown to be influenced by the chosen settlement, while fertility is not.
JEL classification : J 12; J 4; K 12     

Return Versus onward Migration: Go Back or Move On?

This paper examines the impact of unemployment on out-migration by distinguishing between return and onward migration and controlling for total earnings. We use Timing-of-Events models and control for the endogeneity of total earnings, unemployment and out-migration using administrative data from the Netherlands. Our findings suggest that unemployment triggers return migration more than onward migration. When total earnings are low unemployment increases the hazard of return migration. When total earnings are high the hazard rate of onward migration for unemployed immigrants increases. Thus, these findings highlight that out-migration is affected both by unemployment and by total earnings as well as by the interaction between the two.     

Conservative Politicians and Voting on Same‐sex Marriage

We examine whether conservative politicians are less likely to support same‐sex marriage when they run for office in safe rather than in contested districts using new data based on a roll‐call vote in the national German parliament. The results show that the margin of the majority for the incumbent in the previous election was a strong predictor for supporting same‐sex marriage. When the majority increased by a 1 percentage point, the likelihood of voting in favour of same‐sex marriage decreased by around 1.3 percentage points. We conjecture that politicians are election‐motivated – even when submitting roll‐call votes on a matter of conscience.     

Lost in translation? The relative wages of immigrants in the Portuguese labour market

This article examines the wage gaps between immigrant and Portuguese workers using matched employer–employee data for the 2002–2008 period. We found that most of the wage gap is not due to the worst endowments of the immigrants but to differences in the returns to those characteristics and to the immigrant status effect. In particular, immigrants’ education and foreign experience are significantly less valued in the Portuguese labour market. Overall, the wages of immigrants do not fully converge to those of comparable natives as domestic experience increases. The assimilation rates tend to be stronger in the first years after migration and for immigrants with higher levels of foreign experience. Total immigrants are a heterogeneous group of different nationalities, with immigrants from the EU15 and China starring as the two extreme cases.     

论可撤销婚姻制度的完善

现行《婚姻法》及有关婚姻家庭方面的法律法规关于可撤销婚姻的规定仅仅是一种粗线条的“勾画”,我们应在可撤销婚姻的事由、行使和确认主体、限制、终审及法律后果等方面充实和完善可撤销婚姻制度。     

Occupational transition and country-of-origin effects in the early stage occupational assimilation of immigrants: some evidence from Australia

We examine the occupational attainment of recent immigrants at 2 years post migration in order to study their early stage assimilation into the labour market in Australia. Human capital endowments and country-of-origin effects are examined for six occupational groups. We also study transitions across occupations from source to host country. The empirical approach utilizes the Ordered Generalized Extreme Value (OGEV) model which embodies differing utility functions across occupational outcomes, as well as accounting for any ordering in these outcomes. The results suggest that the transferability of knowledge and skills is affected by cultural and social backgrounds, and that non-Western immigrants are disproportionately channelled into inferior jobs post migration. The investigation of the country-of-origin effect on the skilled migrants’ occupational transition process is especially apt in the context of skill shortages in many host countries.