Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income*

Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is the changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region‐specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating crime equations with the two separate income components as explanatory variables. The results indicate that it is important to separate the two effects; while an increase in the inequality in permanent income yields a positive and significant effect on total crimes and three different property crimes, an increase in the inequality in transitory income has no significant effect. Using a traditional, aggregate, measure of income yields insignificant effects on crime.     

Correlated income shocks and excess smoothness of consumption

In the literature, econometricians typically assume that household income is the sum of a random walk permanent component and a transitory component, with uncorrelated permanent and transitory shocks. Using data on realized individual incomes and individual expectations of future incomes from the Survey of Italian Households׳ Income and Wealth, I find that permanent and transitory shocks are negatively correlated. Relaxing the assumption of no correlation between the shocks, I explore the effects of correlated income shocks on the estimated consumption insurance against permanent and transitory shocks, and consumption smoothness using a life-cycle model with self-insurance calibrated to U.S. data. Negatively correlated income shocks result in smoother consumption, and upward-biased estimates of the insurance against transitory (and permanent when borrowing constraints are not tight) income shocks. While the life-cycle model with negatively correlated shocks fits well the sensitivity of consumption to current income shocks observed in U.S. data, it falls short of explaining the sensitivity of consumption to income shocks cumulated over a longer horizon.     

Workgroup Climates and Employees’ Counterproductive Work Behaviours: A Social‐Cognitive Perspective

This research examines employees' anticipation of social and self‐sanctions as a self‐regulatory mechanism linking workgroup climates and counterproductive work behaviours (CWBs) and personality as a limit to these effects. A cross‐level study with 158 employees from 26 workgroups demonstrated that in groups with a high compliance climate – a climate emphasizing the importance of complying with organizational rules – employees anticipate more social and self‐sanctions, leading those low in conscientiousness and low in agreeableness to engage less frequently in CWBs. In contrast, a high relational climate – a climate emphasizing the importance of positive social relations over self‐interest – indirectly unbridles the CWBs of these employees by alleviating the social and self‐sanctions they anticipate for CWBs. Climates did not have indirect effects for employees high in agreeableness and high in conscientiousness. These findings elucidate why workgroup climates do not affect the CWBs of all members in the same way.     

Evaluating the prevalence and distribution of dependent self‐employment: some lessons from the European Working Conditions Survey

This article advances understanding of the prevalence and distribution of dependent self‐employment. Analysing the 2015 European Working Conditions Survey of 35,765 employees in 28 European countries, the dependent self‐employed are found to comprise 4.3% (1 in 23) of the EU workforce, 47% of all those reporting themselves as self‐employed without employees and 31% of all self‐employed. The prevalence of dependent self‐employment, however, is found to have decreased since the previous 2010 survey, is not found to be concentrated among marginalised population groups and is significantly more likely in agriculture, forestry and fishing, arts, entertainment, recreation and other service activities, and the household services sector. The implications for theorising and tackling dependent self‐employment are discussed.     

Entrepreneurship: Cause and Consequence of Financial Optimism

Extant evidence that the self‐employed overestimate their returns by a greater margin than employees is consistent with two mutually inclusive possibilities. Self‐employment may foster optimism or intrinsic optimists may be drawn to self‐employment. Previous research is generally unable to disentangle these effects because of reliance on cross‐sectional data. Using longitudinal data, this paper finds that employees who will be self‐employed in the future overestimate their short‐term financial wellbeing by more than those who never become self‐employed. Optimism is higher still when self‐employed. These results suggest that the greater optimism of the self‐employed reflects both psychological disposition and environmental factors. By providing greater scope for optimism, self‐employment entices the intrinsically optimistic.     

Estimation of a model containing unobservable variables using grouped observations: An application to the permanent income hypothesis

The method of estimating relationships in a model containing unobservable variables is combined with the technique of estimation from a sample of grouped observations to analyse the permanent income hypothesis. From a sample of group means the paper measures the relative importance of such factors as wealth, occupation, age and family-size as determinants of permanent income in the United Kingdom, and also considers the mechanism by which transitory receipts influence total consumption expenditure.     

INEQUALITY AND HAPPINESS

In recent years there has been an accumulation of empirical evidence suggesting that individuals dislike inequality. The literature has built upon estimating the degree of this dislike as well as its causes. The use of self‐reported measures of satisfaction or well‐being as a proxy for utility has been one of the empirical strategies used to this end. In this survey, we review the papers that estimate or examine the relationship between inequality and self‐reported happiness to conclude that inequality correlates negatively with happiness in Western societies. Some of the surveyed papers identify particular sources of heterogeneity on preferences over inequality. The evidence for non‐Western societies is more mixed and less reliable. Notwithstanding that, trust in the institutions seems to play an important role in shaping the relationship between income inequality and subjective well‐being. We conclude with suggestions for further research.     

Permanent income,hedonic prices,and demand for housing: New evidence

Housing demand is examined by looking quite specifically at the income and price variables based on individual household data. Permanent and transitory incomes are computed through instrumental variables related to human and nonhuman wealth. A price is constructed by spatially varying hedonic techniques. Separation of measured income into permanent and transitory components substantially improves the predictive power of the housing demand estimation and leads to demand elasticities of +1 and ?1 with respect to permanent income and price. The permanent income elasticity is roughly twice the measured income elasticity.     

De ontwikkeling van de inkomensongelijkheid gemeten volgens informatietheoretische maatstaven

Summary Some years ago Theil introduced new inequality measures, originating from information theory. He applied them 8.0. to income distributions in the United States. This inequality coefficient is - in contrast to Pareto's constant - based on the whole income distribution. Moreover, the inequality can be disaggregated into inequalities for groups of population. The numerical value of the inequality depends on the chosen class intervals; this may be inconvenient when making comparisons between countries, between different periods and the like. Hence we suggest an appropriate standardizing procedure. The inequality of income distributions has been calculated for the period 1950–1964 and a cornparison is made with Pmm's constant. The investigation relates to three groups of population: wage earners, self employed and others. A remark is made about between-province inequalities.     

The Effects of Household Income Volatility on Divorce

We extend the literature on the effects of earnings shocks on divorce by identifying separately the effects of transitory and permanent household income shocks and by allowing the shocks to have asymmetric effects across education and racial groups. The econometric evidence suggests negative (positive) transitory household income shocks increase (decrease) the probability of divorce, while there is only weak evidence that positive (negative) permanent household income shocks raise (lower) the probability of divorce. Some differences in the effects of household income shocks on divorce propensities arise for subsamples selected by education and race.     

WAGE INEQUALITY IN TURKEY: DECOMPOSITION BY STATISTICAL REGIONS, 1980–2001

This paper analyzes wage inequality in the Turkish manufacturing sector annually from 1980 to 2001, and also provides some evidence for inequality in the post‐2001 period. Using the between‐groups component of Theil's T statistic, the paper provides more information on wage inequality. It decomposes the evolution of inequality by statistical regions – The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics – (i.e. NUTS‐1 and NUTS‐2). The decompositions show that inequality has increased since the late 1980s in the private sector both between regions of NUTS‐1 and NUTS‐2.     

The Impact of Short‐ and Long‐run Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Investment: A Panel Study of Industrial Countries*

We examine the relationship between aggregate investment and exchange rate uncertainty in the G7, using panel estimation and decomposition of volatility derived from the components generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. Our dynamic panel approach takes account of potential cross‐sectional heterogeneity, which can lead to bias in estimation. We find that for a poolable subsample of European countries, it is the transitory and not the permanent component of volatility which adversely affects investment. To the extent that short‐run uncertainty in the CGARCH model characterizes higher frequency shocks generated by volatile short‐term capital flows, these are most deleterious for investment.     

Accounting for Changes in Income Inequality: Decomposition Analyses for the UK, 1978–2008

We analyse income inequality in the UK from 1978 to 2009 in order to understand why income inequality rose very rapidly from 1978 to 1991 but then remained broadly unchanged. We find that inequality in earnings among employees has risen fairly steadily since 1978, but other factors that caused income inequality to rise before 1991 have since gone into reverse. Inequality in investment and pension income has fallen since 1991, as has inequality between those with and without employment. Furthermore, certain household types – notably the elderly and those with young children – which had relatively low incomes in the period to 1991 have seen their incomes converge with others.     

A Micro‐Decomposition Analysis of Aggregate Human Development Outcomes*

We show how differences in aggregate human development outcomes over time and space can be additively decomposed into a pure mean income (growth) component, a component attributed to differences in the distribution of income, and components attributed to ‘non‐income’ factors and differences in the model linking outcomes to income and non‐income characteristics. The income effect at the micro level is modelled non‐parametrically, so as to flexibly reflect potentially complex distributional changes. Our proposed method is illustrated using data for Morocco and Vietnam, and the results offer some surprising insights into the observed aggregate gains in schooling attainments.     

The permanent income hypothesis in five major industrial countries: a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition test

This paper presents a new test of the permanent income hypothesis in five major industrial countries. The test first decomposes consumption and income into their long run trend (permanent) and short run cyclical (transitory) components, using the recently developed multivariate stochastic detrending approach developed by Vahid and Engle (1997), among others. This approach exploits the presence of possible common stochastic trends and cycles among the variables in the system to arrive at a more efficient decomposition of these variables. Using the decomposition results, and in contrast to many articles in the literature, the paper finds support for the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, the paper finds that, while permanent consumption is related to permanent income, transitory consumption is related to neither permanent nor transitory income.

Turning Unemployment into Self‐Employment: Effectiveness of Two Start‐Up Programmes*

Turning unemployment into self‐employment has become a major focus of German active labour market policy (ALMP) in recent years. If effective, this would not only reduce Germany's persistently high unemployment rate, but also increase its notoriously low self‐employment rate. Empirical evidence on the effectiveness of such programmes is scarce. We evaluate the effectiveness of two start‐up programmes for the unemployed, where we include the probability of being employed, the probability of being unemployed and personal income as outcome variables. Our results show that at the end of the observation period, both programmes are effective. The considerable positive effects present a stark contrast to findings from evaluations of other German ALMP programmes in recent years. Hence, ALMP programmes aimed at moving the unemployed into self‐employment may prove to be among the most effective, both in Germany and elsewhere.     

Life-cycle variations in the association between current and lifetime earnings: Evidence for German natives and guest workers

In many economic models a central variable of interest is lifetime or permanent income which is not observed in survey data sets and typically proxied by annual income information. To assess the quality of such approximations, we use a unique source of lifetime earnings — the German pension system — and focus on two important issues that have been largely ignored in the existing literature. The first is how to deal with zero income observations in the analysis of women. The second is whether these approximations differ between natives and guest workers. For female earners, we find that estimates of the associations between current and lifetime income are highly sensitive to the treatment of zero earnings. The reason turns out to be the highly cyclical nature of the labor supply behavior of mothers. Furthermore, immigrants' income proxies are prone to significantly larger attenuation biases over the entire life-cycle. This result is explained by the larger share of annual income variance attributable to the transitory income component for immigrants. Averaging income over up to 15 years alleviates the attenuation bias as well as the difference in biases between natives and guest workers.     

Thriving of employees with disabilities: The roles of job self‐efficacy,inclusion, and team‐learning climate

With the growing global emphasis on welfare‐to‐work policies, an increasing number of people with disabilities (PWD) have entered the workforce. However, studies on PWD have focused primarily on company practices to accommodate PWD, with a limited understanding of factors affecting psychological integration of PWD into the workplace. This scarcity in research makes it difficult for managers to utilize the full work potential of PWD. To fill this research gap, the current study focuses on the job self‐efficacy of PWD and investigates how employee disability interacts with inclusion and team‐learning climate to affect job self‐efficacy, and in turn thriving at work. Using a sample of 485 employees in 114 teams, surveys found job self‐efficacy was a key intervening mechanism linking employee disability to thriving at work. These results suggest high workplace inclusion can buffer potential negative effects of disability at the individual level, strengthened further by a high team‐learning climate. The data supported a three‐way cross‐level interaction effect of disability, inclusion, and team‐learning climate on the thriving of employees with disabilities, through job self‐efficacy. Our results demonstrate the importance of inclusion and team‐learning climate to foster employee thriving in a diverse workforce.     

Estimating a Parsimonious Model of Inequality Aversion in Stackelberg Duopoly Experiments*

In the Stackelberg duopoly experiments in Huck et al. (2001) , nearly half of the followers’ behaviours are inconsistent with conventional prediction. We use a test in which the conventional self‐interested model is nested as a special case of an inequality aversion model. Maximum likelihood methods applied to the Huck et al. (2001) data set reject the self‐interested model. We find that almost 40% of the players have disadvantageous inequality aversion that is statistically different from zero and economically significant, but advantageous inequality aversion is relatively unimportant. These estimates provide support for a more parsimonious model with no advantageous inequality aversion.     

Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market

We analyze dynamics of the permanent and transitory components of the US economic activity and the stock market obtained by multivariate dynamic factor modeling. We capture asymmetries over the phases of economic and stock market trends and cycles using independent Markov‐switching processes. We show that both output and stock prices contain significant transitory components, while consumption and dividends are useful to identify their respective permanent components. The extracted economic trend perfectly predicts all post‐war recessions. Our results shed light on the nature of the bilateral predictability of the economy and the stock market. The transitory stock market component signals recessions with an average lead of one quarter, whereas the market trend is correlated with the economic trend with varying lead/lag times. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.