中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量的影响因素研究

管理层盈余预测是中小板上市公司对未来展望的信息，在信息披露中占据着越来越重要的地位。本文选取2013-2015 年中小板上市公司相关数据，运用广义多分类无序logit 模型对影响中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量的因素进行探究，以期提高管理层盈余预测的质量。经研究结果表明，公司的独立董事占比、年度召开董事会次数、股权集中度、净资产收益率、管理层持股比例等因素越高，对提高中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量越有益，除此之外，中小板上市公司董事长和总经理兼任情况，与公司合作的审计机构专业程度均对管理层盈余预测的质量有一定影响。     

管理层盈余预测对会计稳健性的影响研究

为了研究管理层盈余预测与会计稳健性之间的关系,在梳理现有国内外有关管理层盈余预测与会计稳健性相关文献的基础上,通过分析归纳,提出了披露、自愿披露和披露"好消息"管理层盈余预测与会计稳健性关系的假设,细化了管理层盈余预测对会计稳健性影响研究。为验证上述假设,以Basu模型为基础,构建了多元回归模型,使用2013—2017年沪、深两市A股上市公司数据,实证检验了管理层盈余预测对会计稳健性的影响。结果表明:披露管理层盈余预测公司的会计稳健性显著降低;自愿披露管理层盈余预测比强制披露管理层盈余预测更能显著降低会计稳健性;"好消息"管理层盈余预测比"坏消息"管理层盈余预测更能降低会计稳健性。研究结果对完善中国管理层盈余预测制度、加强"坏消息"管理层盈余预测披露管理具有借鉴意义。     

MD&A创新描述与公司未来创新绩效——基于文本分析的经验证据北大核心

“管理层讨论与分析”(Management’s Discussion and Analysis,MD&A)直接关系到投资者的决策准确性。MD&A中的创新描述与创新投入是否“言行一致”,能否预测企业未来创新绩效,仍是影响投资者决策的重要问题。本研究以2007~2020年沪深两市A股上市公司14年间16422个非平衡面板数据为样本,首先实证分析MD&A中创新描述与公司创新投入关系,进而检验创新描述对公司未来创新绩效的预测作用。研究发现:(1)创新描述与企业当期创新投入显著正相关,能如实反映企业的创新投入;(2)创新描述能正向预测企业下一年度的专利申请数,但难以预测下一年度的专利授权数,其对企业未来创新绩效的预测作用存在局限。研究结论从文本信息的角度丰富了企业创新绩效的预测方式,有效减轻上市公司内外信息不对称的问题,同时也进一步验证加强“管理层讨论与分析”信息披露内容监管的必要性。     

盈余管理与国有公司高管晋升效率

本文主要考察盈余管理是否以及如何影响国有公司高管晋升对业绩的敏感性。以2000—2009年中国A股国有上市公司的高管晋升数据为样本,从操纵性应计利润与非经常性损益两个角度度量盈余管理,我们检验发现,盈余管理会降低国有公司高管晋升对业绩的敏感性,并且当信息不对称程度较低、第一大股东持股比例较高或市场化程度较高时,盈余管理的这种负向影响更大。本文实证结果表明,如果政府无法识别国有公司的盈余管理行为,其高管晋升效率将受到损害,而股权集中度及地区市场化程度的提高有助于增强政府的识别能力,改进高管晋升效率。     

上市公司治理结构对信息性盈余管理的影响研究

为了有效监督公司内部利害关系各方的行为,有效降低基于各种委托代理关系的代理成本,在阐述国内外盈余管理文献的基础上,假设拥有健全公司治理结构的上市公司管理者更愿意进行信息性盈余管理,通过构建合理的并可度量的信息性盈余管理衡量方法,使用沪、深两市全部A股上市公司2014—2016年公司季度财务数据,实证研究了信息性盈余管理视角下公司治理对盈余管理的影响。结果表明,市场监管者和投资者需要关注两种不同的盈余管理行为,投机性盈余管理更倾向于误导投资者,信息性盈余管理则是通过盈余管理的手段向投资者传递有用的内部信息。股权制衡对上市公司的信息性盈余管理行为具有明显促进作用,促使管理层进行信息性盈余管理,就要优化股权结构,形成产权多样化的股东制衡机制,实现股权结构的合理优化。拥有健全公司治理结构的上市公司管理者更愿意进行信息性盈余管理,公司治理结构对管理者进行信息性盈余管理具有积极的影响,健全的公司治理结构能够提高财务报告透明度和盈余信息含量。因此,保障财务报告的真实性和可靠性,以信息性盈余管理为动机探究公司治理对盈余管理的影响具有现实意义。     

上市公司MD&A信息披露有效性评价与分析

管理层讨论与分析(Management's Discussion&Anslysis,以下简称MD&A),是指上市公司管理层在定期报告中对公司以前的经营管理状况的评价、分析以及管理层对公司未来发展趋势的判断与预测。本文通过分别抽样深交所和上交所50家上市公司年度报告,对上市公司MD&A信息披露的有效性进行评价与分析,并进一步探讨了完善MD&A信息披露的措施,从而使得MD&A能够为上市公司及外部使用者提供更有价值的信息。     

关于盈余管理与外部审计的文献综述

盈余管理是把双刃剑,适当的盈余管理能够在一定程度上起到稳定股价、平衡资本市场的作用,但过度的盈余管理会改变原有财务信息的真正含义,误导信息使用者进行投资决策。而注册会计师凭借自身专业能力和独立性可以极大程度的降低信息不对称的程度,能够对被审计单位起到有效的监督。本文将分别对应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理的计量模型进行归纳,并对两类盈余管理与外部审计关系的相关文献进行梳理和评述。     

上市公司股权激励盈余管理及影响因素研究

自股权激励办法施行以来,股权激励作为一种降低代理成本的激励方式,被越来越多的上市公司所采用。然而实证发现,盈余管理会伴随股权激励发生,实行股权激励公司在业绩考核第一年存在显著的盈余管理现象,而业绩考核前一年并不存在。在影响盈余管理的因素上,公司选用考核范围更广的业绩指标能减少管理层进行盈余管理的动机,行权时长的增加会给管理层盈余管理造成一些困难,从而抑制管理层在后阶段盈余管理的行为。     

融资需求、盈余管理与公司资本配置效率

本文以我国 2011~2015 年的 A 股上市公司为考察对象，实证检验了融资需求与盈余管理的关系，及在融资需求驱动下,不同盈余管理方式对资本配置效率的影响。研究发现：融资需求与盈余管理呈显著正相关，即企业融资需求越强烈，发生盈余管理活动的可能性越大，盈余管理程度也越高；盈余管理行为会影响会计信息质量，提高信息不对称程度，进而容易引发非效率投资问题，但盈余管理并不总是会降低资本投资效率，基于融资需求的盈余管理对缓解非效率投资有一定的积极作用。     

九牧王股权激励企业骨干

龙年伊始,九牧王董事会即向管理层和业务骨干派发大红包。该公司2月7日发布股权激励计划,涉及公司股票数量共1300万股,占公司总股本的2.27%。根据方案设计,本期股权激励的行权条件为,以公司2010年年度净利润为基数,2012年起,未来3年公司净利润增长率不低于     

The impact of earnings pressure on exploratory innovation

While earnings expectation has been shown to determine a firm’s investment decisions, the knowledge about how such expectation influences a firm’s investment horizon for innovation is still blurred. This study therefore addresses this research issue by examining the relationship between earnings pressure and exploratory innovation while investigating the moderating effects of cross‐rival effect and resource availability. By examining high‐tech industrial firms in S&P 1500 from 2000 to 2012, the results indicate that stock analysts, as information intermediaries between innovation firms and the capital market, impose pressure through earnings forecasts on firms’ exploratory innovation. Our findings also reveal that the earnings pressure‐exploratory innovation relationship can be mitigated when its competitors encounter a higher level of earnings pressure. However, a firm’s financial slack shows less significant association to moderate the earnings pressure‐exploratory innovation relationship. Possible explanations for the results in regard to their theoretical and practical implications are discussed in this study.     

Making the same mistake all over again: CEO overconfidence and corporate resistance to corrective feedback

Firms often make mistakes, from simple manufacturing overruns all the way to catastrophic blunders. However, there is considerable heterogeneity in the nature of corporate responses when faced with evidence that an error has taken place, and, therefore, in the likelihood that such errors will reoccur in the future. In this paper, we explore an important but understudied influence on firms' responses to corrective feedback—a CEO's level of overconfidence. Using multiple distinct measures of overconfidence and the empirical context of voluntary corporate earnings forecasts, we find strong, robust evidence that firms led by overconfident CEOs are less responsive to corrective feedback in improving management forecast accuracy. We further show that this relationship is moderated by prior forecast error valence, time horizon, and managerial discretion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Consensus analysts' earnings forecasts and security returns

This study examines the information content and informational efficiency of consensus analysts' forecasts in an Australian setting. Consistent with Lys and Sohn (1990) and Abarbanell (1991), analysts' forecasts were found to possess information content but did not incorporate all publicly available information. The empirical analysis in this paper suggests that negative security returns are associated with higher forecast errors. This contrasts with the results of Lys and Sohn (1990) and is consistent with a positive bias in forecasts. However, this did not preclude analysts' forecasts from being viable proxies for the market's expectations of future earnings.Michael Aitken, Alex Frino and Roland Winn are Professor, Senior Lecturer and Associate Lecturer, respectively, at the University of Sydney. The authors thank McIntosh Securities for the use of the McBARCEP database. However, the views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not intended to represent those of McIntosh Securities Ltd. The authors also thank two anonymous referees, Wai-Ming Fong and other participants at the Second Annual Asia-Pacific Finance Conference. The corresponding author for this paper is Roland Winn, Department of Finance H03, University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.     

国际油价冲击与中国的经济增长——基于非对称关系视角的分析

本文基于季度数据，引入非对称协整模型，考察国际油价与中国经济增长的动态关系，并鉴于油价波动对不发达经济体可能的冲击，还测度了油价的不确定性并探析其对经济增长的影响，结果表明：（1）从短期来看，国际油价变化是国内经济增长的单向Granger原因，“中国因素”对全球油价变化的影响尚不明显；（2）从长期来看，国际油价和经济增长具有非对称协整关系，油价上涨对经济的影响明显大于油价下跌所产生的效应；（3）国际石油市场存在正反馈交易行为，导致油价波动在油价上涨时表现更加明显。油价不确定性在短期内对经济增长存在负面影响，长期中则不会显著影响经济增长。以上结果意味着必须高度重视石油安全问题，加强油价波动预警与风险管理系统。     

Do analysts add value when they most can? Evidence from corporate spin‐offs

This article investigates how securities analysts help investors understand the value of diversification. By studying the research that analysts produce about companies that have announced corporate spin‐offs, we gain unique insights into how analysts portray diversified firms to the investment community. We find that while analysts' research about these companies is associated with improved forecast accuracy, the value of their research about the spun‐off subsidiaries is more limited. For both diversified firms and their spun‐off subsidiaries, analysts' research is more valuable when information asymmetry between the management of these entities and investors is higher. These findings contribute to the corporate strategy literature by shedding light on the roots of the diversification discount and by showing how analysts' research enables investors to overcome asymmetric information. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of forecasting on companies’ performance: Analysis in a multivariate setting

Over the years, practitioners and researchers have devoted their attention to forecasting techniques and methods that can be adopted to improve companies’ performance. However, forecasting techniques alone are not enough since companies should also consider several other issues associated with forecasting process management, e.g. how companies collect and use information on the market, or how the forecast is used in different decision-making processes. It is also important to understand the existence of interaction effects between these different forecasting variables, as they could determine a positive additional synergistic effect on companies’ performance. This paper aims to investigate what relevant forecasting variables should be considered to improve companies’ performance, and whether some forecasting variables can interact and influence performance with a synergistic effect. Analyses are conducted by means of data collected by the Global Manufacturing Research Group (GMRG). Data from a sample of 343 manufacturing companies in 6 different countries demonstrate that when companies intend to improve cost and delivery performances, they should devote their attention to all the different forecasting variables. In addition, the results found reveal the existence of positive interaction effects between the collection and use of information on the market and the other forecasting variables, as well as the existence of a negative interaction effect between the adoption of forecasting techniques and the use of forecasts in several decision-making processes. These results have important implications for managers as they provide guidance on how to lever on the different forecasting variables to maximize companies’ performance.     

Business groups and corporate transparency in emerging markets: Empirical evidence from India

This study examines the difference in corporate transparency of firms affiliated with business groups and unaffiliated firms in India. Based on previous studies we measured corporate transparency using equity analysts’ forecast error and dispersion. We find that firms affiliated with business groups are less transparent than unaffiliated firms. Lack of transparency leads to higher analyst forecast error and dispersion. This study also finds that business group-affiliated firms with more intra-group capital transactions have higher forecast error and dispersion. The findings of this study suggest that firms affiliated with business groups are less transparent due to their reliance on internal capital markets, and therefore lack incentives to disclose information to market participants. As a result, the information asymmetry between business groups and the capital market is higher, restricting the activities of information intermediaries such as equity analysts, who play an important role in the external capital market.