SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN DETERMINANTS OF THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN MEXICO

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination, which includes the relative GDP per capita, the real interest rates, and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate vector autoregressive (VAR) model.     

COLONIALISM AND LONG‐RUN GROWTH IN AUSTRALIA: AN EXAMINATION OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IN VICTORIA'S WATER SECTOR DURING THE NINETEENTH CENTURY

Institutional change in water rights in the nineteenth century Australian colony of Victoria raised institutional efficiency, which contributed to long‐run economic growth. High‐quality human capital and the extension of voting rights (franchise) were crucial for efficient institutional change in the water sector. Quality human capital (literacy) appeared to increase the rural population's awareness of the economic impact of the existing structure of water rights that may have constrained growth in the agricultural sector and reduced investment incentives. Extension of the franchise allowed the rural population to exert political pressure for enactment of change in water rights, which resulted in efficiency‐enhancing policies and efficient institutions. The findings show these two factors were more important than Victoria's British colonial heritage in determining whether growth‐enhancing institutional change took place.     

STATE-LEVEL BASIC WAGES IN AUSTRALIA DURING THE DEPRESSION, 1929–35: INSTITUTIONS AND POLITICS OVER MARKETS

State wage-fixation tribunals developed quite particular patterns of basic wage fixation during the Depression. They declined to follow the Commonwealth Court's 10 per cent wage cut, thereby confining its effect to about half the workforce and creating distinctly different State and Commonwealth basic wage patterns in each capital city. Further, tribunals' uneven patterns of basic wage adjustment to deflation meant that in some states, the real State basic wage increased. Patterns of state institutional behaviour and state politics therefore help explain the stickiness of real average wage levels during the Depression.     

DISPARITIES IN THE BENEFITS FROM DEMOCRATIC REFORM IN NIGERIA: A GENDER PERSPECTIVE

There is data evidence that welfare has improved post–democratic reform in Nigeria. However, the distribution or concentration of the benefits in subgroups of the population is unknown. In this paper, the question of differential welfare impacts across and within gender following democratic reform in Nigeria is explored. Two related hypotheses are investigated. First, there is no disparity in the income and returns-to-education benefits of democratic reform across genders in Nigeria. Second, there are no within-gender disparities in the impact of democratic reform on income and returns to education in Nigeria. From the results, both hypotheses are rejected. Though men and women both benefitted from democratic reforms, economically significant within- and between-gender differences exist.     

THE ECONOMICS AND ORGANISATION OF CHINESE MINING IN COLONIAL AUSTRALIA

This article describes Chinese mining in colonial Australia using the examples of gold mining in southern New South Wales (NSW) and the Northern Territory as well as tin mining in northern NSW. Chinese miners were often more successful than their European counterparts. One reason for this success was the effective use that the Chinese made of large cooperative groups, a particularly efficient way to work a mining claim. Earlier studies of Chinese mining in Australia chiefly chronicled the racism and violence experienced by the Chinese and underestimated their significant economic contribution. Reasserting their economic importance challenges an exclusive focus on race.     

THE EVOLUTION OF GENDER EARNINGS GAPS AND DISCRIMINATION IN URBAN CHINA, 1988–95

This paper analyzes the impact of market liberalization on gender earnings differentials and discrimination against women in urban China at the beginning of the 1990s. The observed stability in the overall gender earnings gap between 1988 and 1995 is shown to result from a complex set of evolutions across enterprises, earnings distributions, and time. Our results highlight the interplay of opposing forces, with economic reforms contributing to changes in managers’ behaviors in different dimensions. On the one hand, by bringing more competition, liberalization favored a reduction in discriminating behaviors in both urban collectives and foreign‐invested enterprises; on the other hand, by relaxing institutional rules, it led to a loosening of the government's egalitarian wage‐setting policies, leaving more space for discrimination in state‐owned enterprises.     

BASKET PEGS AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIME CHANGE: AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND IN THE MID‐SEVENTIES*

The adoption of a basket peg by China in July 2005 raised interest in this form of exchange rate regime. This paper explores the emergence of the basket peg in the early 1970s, using New Zealand and Australia as case studies to examine why it was adopted, how it operated, and their policy‐makers' use of it to influence various goals. We highlight the complexity of regime choice following the collapse of Bretton Woods. For Australia and New Zealand, the basket peg was a plausible (although interim) solution when they were reluctant either to peg to a single currency or float.     

A HISTORY OF THE PAN‐PACIFIC COAL TRADE FROM THE 1950S TO 2011: EXPLORING THE LONG‐TERM EFFECTS OF A BUYING CARTEL

Since the early 1960s, the Pan‐Pacific coal trade has underpinned East Asia's industrial development. While the genesis of this trade lay in investment decisions by United States‐based companies that pioneered exports from Australian and western Canadian mines, its development was largely shaped by the strategies of the Japanese steel mills who acted as a buying cartel. By the early 1980s, this cartel had engineered an oversupplied market characterised by constantly falling prices. By 2001, however, this strategy proved counterproductive, as exports of coking coal in particular were concentrated in the hands of an oligopoly of super‐efficient producers that drove up prices.     

A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON INDIGENOUS SOCIOECONOMIC OUTCOMES IN AUSTRALIA, 1971–2001

Current debate in Indigenous affairs in Australia often involves the assertion that the last 30 years has been a period of policy failure. This article examines trends across a number of socioeconomic outcomes for Indigenous Australians from the 1967 referendum to the present, using census data. Overall, there has been steady, although not spectacular improvement in outcomes over time. These improvements are especially marked for education, which was coming from an exceptionally low base. This finding is somewhat at odds with the common perception of the 'failure' of Indigenous policy.     

THE IMPACT OF HIV/AIDS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA1

This study investigates the hypothesis that HIV/AIDS epidemic slows down the pace of economic growth. We examine 41 Sub‐Saharan African countries by using the empirical growth equation in an augmented Solow model in which health capital serves as a determinant of human capital. Econometric analysis is based on panel data and covers the period 1997‐2005. We control for a variety of factors possibly correlated with HIV prevalence that might also influence economic growth. As a key result we prove that the epidemic has a significant negative effect on the growth rate of per capita GDP in Sub‐Saharan Africa.     

INTRODUCTION TO A STUDY OF INTRAHOUSEHOLD RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND GENDER DISCRIMINATION IN RURAL ANDHRA PRADESH,INDIA

In this special issue, we use unique household data which was collected exclusively for our study in Andhra Pradesh, India, with the help of an NGO. We estimate and test the intrahousehold resource allocation rules, incidence of child labor, and the effects of credit constraints on time allocation among household members. Three empirical papers of this issue indicate the overall support for the collective model against the unitary model of households, clarified the role of household structure, and show the nature of mother‐child labor substitution under a binding credit constraint. In addition, a survey paper discussing the recent trends on educational attainment and the empirical strategies in identifyng the policy effects are included.     

A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES IN AUSTRALIA: 1883–84 TO 2003–04

This paper describes changes in the number of residents and admissions to public psychiatric hospitals in Australia, and in the state of Queensland in particular, from 1883 to 2003. It identifies when the deinstitutionalisation of dedicated psychiatric institutions began in Queensland and finds that the policy described as 'opening the back door' (discharging residents) began around 1952–53, while the policy of 'closing the front door' (reducing admissions) began in 1962–63. Deinstitutionalisation in Queensland thus began earlier than most contemporary writers suggest.     

TARIFFS,SUBSIDIES, AND PROFITS: A RE‐ASSESSMENT OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN AUSTRALIA 1901–39

We re‐interpret the drivers of structural change in Australia from Federation to World War II. Manufacturing increased its relative share of output and employment, the farm sector and mining contracted. Conventional wisdom contends these shifts largely resulted from government policy, particularly increases in trade barriers. We contend that the connection between tariffs and increased profitability is conceptually weak and not supported by extant evidence. We argue that exogenous shifts in consumer preferences, the adoption of new technologies, changing factor proportions, and greater specialisation in manufacturing and services were responsible for manufacturing increasing its share of the economy's resources and output.     

THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE EMPLOYMENT OF PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA, 1998‐2006

This paper shows that there has been a significant decline in the employment and labour force participation of persons with disabilities in South Africa over the 1998 through 2006 period. Disability is defined based on activity limitations. Data are from the October and the General Household Surveys. The paper also deals with the possible causes of the decline. While several causes can be invoked, preliminary evidence suggests that the rise of the Disability Grant programme might be responsible for a part of the decline. Recommendations are made for future research and data collection on disability and employment.     

Human Capital and Economic Growth in Asia 1890–2000: A Time‐series Analysis*

There is a general consensus that human capital is a major factor behind long‐run economic growth. Yet, on a macro level, the empirical results do not always seem to concur with this view. To explain this gap between theory and empirics, more focus has been laid on measurement error and data quality. Using an alternative estimate of the stock of human capital, based on Judson (2002), we find evidence that the two major views on the role of human capital in economic development by Lucas (1988) and Romer (1990) coexist and are by no means mutually exclusive. Using a Johansen cointegration test, we find that in India and Indonesia the level of human capital is cointegrated with the level of aggregate income during the whole 20th century, which confirms the theory of Lucas (1988). In Japan, however, the Lucasian approach can be verified only for the first half of the century, while after 1950 there is cointegration between the growth rate of aggregate income and the level of human capital, which is in line with Romer's view.     

The late emergence of socioeconomic mortality differentials: A micro-level study of adult mortality in southern Sweden 1815–1968

This paper deals with socioeconomic differences in adult mortality in southern Sweden 1815–1968, a period of transformation from an agricultural to a modern industrial society and increasing life expectancy. We use longitudinal micro-level data with information on demographic events, household structure and socioeconomic status. The main finding is that the socioeconomic gradient is a very recent phenomenon. While mortality fell in all socioeconomic groups it was not until the 1950s that a socioeconomic gradient appeared, and then only among adults in working ages. For the elderly, we find no significant mortality differentials between various social groups at any time. These results are consistent with the divergence hypothesis, although this process started much later than previously thought, and was not an immediate consequence of industrialization.     

TRADE‐OFFS AND RIP‐OFFS: IMITATION‐LED INDUSTRIALISATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF TRADEMARK LAW IN HONG KONG*

Hong Kong's development as an industrial exporter was advantaged by a flexible institutional regime, which generated gains from imitation‐led industrialisation and which allowed the mobilisation of public and private resources to enable a transition to a more stringent enforcement regime for intellectual property. Fragmentary industrial structures raised monitoring costs for trademark proprietors and gave opportunities for infringers to exploit information asymmetries. However, colonial state building, the formation of specialist markets in knowledge, and collective actions by business groups caused the law to evolve. These overlapping processes of formal and informal institutional change were mutually reinforcing.     

FIRM AND GOVERNMENT AS ACTORS IN PENROSE'S PROCESS THEORY OF INTERNATIONAL GROWTH: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RESOURCE-BASED VIEW AND OWNERSHIP–LOCATION– INTERNATIONALISATION PARADIGM

Edith Penrose's The Theory of the Growth of the Firm proposed a process theory of growth based on the pursuit of knowledge by the firm and unconstrained by government. In her subsequent studies of foreign direct investment by large firms in developing countries, Penrose considers the firm and government as actors in the same growth process. This paper explores the development of Penrose's expanded process theory of growth from 1955 to 1973 in which she assumes that neither dual actors nor foreign expansion requires a new or special theory. This finding has implications for the resource-based view and the eclectic ownership–location–internationalisation paradigm interpretations of international business.     

THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN CHINA'S TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: A CROSS‐PROVINCE ANALYSIS

This paper studies the role of human capital in China's provincial total factor productivity (TFP) growth over 1985–2004. The stochastic frontier approach is employed to measure the productivity growth of Chinese provinces. Human capital is measured both qualitatively and quantitatively. In particular, enrolment rates at various levels of schooling are used to represent human capital composition. After controlling for endogeneity, we find that human capital has significant and positive effects on the TFP growth of Chinese provinces. However, when education quality is incorporated, productivity growth appears to be significantly enhanced by quality improvements in primary education only. Regional impacts of human capital are found to differ at various levels of schooling. In the eastern region of China, productivity growth is significantly associated with secondary education. TFP growth in the central region is mainly promoted by primary and university education. Yet in the western region, primary education plays the most prominent role.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING COHORT ANALYSIS, 1994‐20041

We analyse trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation by simple graphical techniques, using all the October Household Surveys and the September Labour Force Surveys. We show that African male employment in 1995 seems high, when compared to all the other surveys. Furthermore much of the increase in African female labour force participation is concentrated in the period 1998 to 2000, which suggests that measurement and sampling changes may be partially responsible for the trend. We track cohorts of individuals over the eleven years for which we have data. We show that young people are leaving school earlier, while being better educated than their elders. They are not, however, being absorbed into employment at a faster rate. This has led to a spike in youth unemployment.