Foot‐and‐mouth disease and the Mexican cattle industry

The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of FMD outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to FMD range from a positive net gain of $0.89 to $1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario.     

Domestic and trade impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease on the Australian beef industry

Australia is the sixth largest producer of beef and the second largest exporter of beef. Average beef exports from Australia are approximately 65 per cent of the total amount of beef produced, about 1.3 million tonnes. Australia is particularly vulnerable to diseases that are not endemic to the country and could close or disrupt its export markets for beef. In this study, we construct a bioeconomic optimisation model of the Australian beef industry that captures production and consumption decisions, domestically and internationally, and the impacts on the beef industry of a potentially catastrophic disease, foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD). This study analyses localised to large‐scale outbreaks and suggests that changes in economic surplus because of FMD range from a positive net gain of $57 million to a net loss of $1.7 billion, with impacts on producers and consumers varying depending on the location of the outbreak, control levels and the nature of any trade ban.     

Demand for a labor‐based drought insurance scheme in Ethiopia: a stated choice experiment approach

Index‐based weather insurance is increasingly used to manage weather‐related risks in smallholder agriculture. However, cash‐constrained smallholders often lack the resources to pay an insurance premium, which may undermine its wider adoption. This article investigates alternative insurance payment methods that may help to enhance the adoption of index‐based weather insurance. We use a choice experiment to elicit smallholders’ willingness to pay in cash or labor for index‐based weather insurance in four districts in the south‐central highlands of Ethiopia. The insurance schemes were created using a fractional factorial design with three factors: work, cash, and payout rate. We analyze the choice data using a random parameter mixed logit model. We find that the average participants need a subsidy to pay cash for insurance because their willingness to pay is less than the expected cost of the insurance. On average, they are willing to pay only 0.81 ETB (Ethiopian currency) to get an expected yearly payout of 1 ETB. However, most are willing to participate in work‐for‐insurance programs at lower daily wage rates than is common for other work programs in Ethiopia.     

Short‐ and Long‐Run Policy Evaluation: Support for Grassland‐Based Milk Production in Switzerland

Following the abolition of the milk quota in 2008, farmers in Switzerland strongly increased the use of concentrate feed in milk production. Against this background, the Swiss government introduced the voluntary grassland‐based milk and meat (GMF) programme in 2014, which combines economic incentives with feeding restrictions to reduce the reliance on concentrate feed and increase the use of grass feed. We analyse the economic and ecological impacts of the GMF programme at the farm and at the sector level in the short‐ and long‐run. We use a difference‐in‐differences approach (ex‐post) and an agent‐based simulation model SWISSland (ex‐ante) to construct counterfactual states to evaluate the programme's impacts. We find that the GMF programme reduces the use of concentrate feed and increases the use of grass feed in Swiss milk production. Whereas the programme has a positive effect on economic indicators such as the farm income, we find no effect on ecological indicators such as the N surplus. Our analysis suggests that feeding restrictions on concentrate feed are not enough to achieve a reduction in the N surplus. Additional feeding restrictions on grassland are necessary. Furthermore, the GMF programme has a dampening effect on sectoral milk supply, and leads to a higher milk price.     

Price Premiums for Providing Eco‐labelled Seafood: Evidence from MSC‐certified Cod in Sweden

Eco‐labelled seafood is an important tool to promote sustainable development in fisheries. A price premium on eco‐labelled seafood signals a return on investment in sustainable fishing methods, providing an incentive for fishers to adopt such methods. This paper investigates whether Swedish fishermen gained a price premium from participating in the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC)‐certified Swedish Eastern Baltic cod fishery in the period 2011–2012. Using a detailed dataset of landing tickets and log books, we apply a panel data methodology to estimate the MSC price premium. We cannot find reliable evidence that the consumer level premium for MCS cod is actually passed back to the producers in this case.     

Using an economic experiment to estimate willingness‐to‐pay for a new maternal nutrient supplement in Ghana

Scaling up access to supplements designed to prevent undernutrition, such as new small‐quantity lipid‐based nutrient supplements (SQ‐LNS), may require distribution via both public channels and retail markets. The viability of SQ‐LNS retail markets will hinge on household‐level demand. We use an economic experiment to characterize initial willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for a maternal SQ‐LNS product in Ghana. WTP is positive for most participants, though below the estimated cost of production for many. WTP varies depending on income, assets, and parity status. These findings have implications for the design of public health policy and hybrid public–private delivery mechanisms.     

The impact of deal‐proneness on WTP estimates in incentive‐aligned value elicitation methods

Even after controlling for hypothetical biases, some incentive‐aligned value elicitation methods still produce different willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) estimates. In this study, we compare WTP estimates from three incentive‐aligned value elicitation methods: real choice experiment (RCE), real double‐bounded dichotomous contingent valuation (RCVM), and Becker–DeGroot–Marschak auction (BDM). We find that participants’ aggressiveness in obtaining low prices (i.e., “deal‐proneness”) influences WTP estimates in the BDM auction, but not those elicited from the RCE and RCVM. The participants with higher levels of deal‐proneness tend to submit lower bids in the BDM auction. The discrepancies in WTP estimates between different incentive‐aligned procedures are narrower for participants with lower levels of deal‐proneness. Our results indicate that the bids in BDM auctions may be understated and the auction mechanism may induce the “gambling behavior” of people who are deal‐prone. That is, whether the BDM auction is truly incentive‐aligned is again called into question. We also discuss the practical implications for food retailers.     

Design Factors Influencing Willingness‐to‐Pay Estimates in the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak (BDM) Mechanism and the Non‐hypothetical Choice Experiment: A Case of Biofortified Maize in Zambia

Two of the experimental methods used to estimate willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for a non‐market good, the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak (BDM) mechanism and the non‐hypothetical choice experiment (nHCE) often lead to significantly different WTP estimates, complicating the choice between the methods. In Zambia the same group of researchers used both techniques to evaluate WTP for orange maize, which provides more vitamin A than other varieties. This provided an opportunity to analyse the sources of the difference. In the BDM experiment, one group of respondents was provided with more training opportunities than the other, and made higher bids. Accounting for lexicographic behaviour in the nHCE reduced the estimated WTP. These two design factors together resulted in a decrease in the WTP difference for orange maize (1,279–632 ZMK) although the difference remains statistically significant. More training was also shown to eliminate the effects of different orders in which maize varieties were presented.     

The impact of index‐insured loans on credit market participation and risk‐taking

Index‐insured loans offer considerable advantages over standalone insurance policies for improving farmers’ access to agricultural credit. However, research on demand for such products and their impact on profitable investment decisions has been limited and conflicting. In this article, we investigate the impact of index insurance on demand for credit and investment decisions using a lab‐in‐the‐field experiment conducted in rural Tanzania. We find that index insurance increases demand for credit and high‐risk high‐return investments.     

Spatial Econometric Issues for Bio‐Economic and Land‐Use Modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio‐economic and land‐use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site‐specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.     

Pricing‐To‐Market Analysis: The Case of EU Wheat Exports

The EU is a major player in the global wheat market. This paper examines the pricing behaviour of EU wheat exporters using a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) analysis. Wheat is an exemplary product for testing PTM theories as it is widely and frequently traded, and largely unbranded. We estimate the relationship between export unit values and exchange rates using quarterly panel data for 11 EU export destinations for 2000–2013. Results show that there is a meaningful long‐run relationship between export unit values and exchange rates, but there is little evidence of differential mark‐ups between EU export markets. Belarus and Iceland are exceptions where exporters from the EU appear to exercise local currency price stabilisation.     

EU Food Safety Standards,Pesticide Use and Farm‐level Productivity: The Case of High‐value Crops in Kenya

This article provides an empirical analysis of the impact of European Union (EU) private food safety standards on pesticide use and farm‐level productivity among small‐scale vegetable producers in Kenya. We apply an extended three‐stage damage control production framework, accounting for multiple endogeneity problems, to farm‐level data collected from a random cross‐sectional sample of 539 small‐scale producers. Estimation results show that farmers producing vegetables for the domestic market use significantly lower quantities of pesticides than do export farmers. However, contrary to findings elsewhere, the econometric evidence here shows that both domestic and export‐oriented vegetable farmers in Kenya use pesticides at levels below the economic optimum. The results also show that the adoption of standards by export farmers does not have any significant impact on total pesticide use. However, adopter categories are distinguishable in terms of types of pesticide used, i.e. adopters use safer pesticides based on World Health Organization (WHO) classification. The third‐stage structural revenue model results demonstrate that adoption of standards has a positive and significant impact on revenue raised in vegetable production. Nevertheless, farmers producing for the export market are indistinguishable from those producing for the domestic farmers in terms of the total revenue earned from producing vegetables during the rainy season, on a ‘per acre’ basis. Although standards can potentially prevent resource‐poor smallholders from maintaining their position in the lucrative export markets, they can also result in positive changes in the production systems of those small‐scale farmers who adopt it, as shown by these results.     

A Parametric Approach to Estimating Eco‐Efficiency

The concept of eco‐efficiency is becoming increasingly popular as a tool to capture economic and environmental aspects of agricultural production. The literature to date has exclusively used the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach to measure producers’ eco‐efficiency. We show that it can also be estimated using a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) approach. Our approach not only allows controlling for random noise in the data but also permits an analysis of the potential substitutability between environmental pressures. We provide an empirical application of our model to data on a sample of Spanish dairy farms.     

A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Treatment of the Ban on UK Beef Exports: A Note

Hubbard and Philippidis Journal of Agricultural Economics (2001) Vol. 52, pp. 87–95] employ the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the impact of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)‐induced ban on exports of UK beef. This note extends that study in four ways: (i) the dynamic GTAP model is employed to characterise long‐run savings–investment behaviour more correctly; (ii) the effect of the foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreak of 2001 is included; (iii) an allowance is made for different levels of recovery in consumer confidence; and (iv) the impact analysis is now compared through time with a ‘no‐ban’ baseline. Long‐run comparisons after removal of the ban suggest that its legacy may continue for some time. However, because of the remedial safeguards and assurances offered in the wake of the BSE and FMD crises, there is a possibility that exports and outputs increase. Nevertheless, the economy‐wide impacts are negligible in both the short and the long run.     

Drinking water and off‐farm labour supply: between‐gender and within‐gender bias

In this paper, we use the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) panel data to analyse the impact of drinking water on off‐farm labour supply. A two‐stage least squares (2SLS) multivariate Tobit regression model with random effects was applied. We find that impacts of drinking water conditions on off‐farm labour supply may be greater for women than men but depends on the specific family role or family structure. A strong within‐gender effect exists in households. For example, daughters are not sensitive to water access nor water quality, but householder's spouses are sensitive to water access, and daughters‐in‐law are sensitive to water quality. Our findings suggest that infrastructure development in improved access to safe water has contributed positively to reductions in traditional gender biases, evening the playing field between daughters, daughters‐in‐law, mothers and mothers‐in‐law. We also find that water the infrastructure program may actually encourage off‐farm labour mobility, reducing the supply of agricultural labour and the share of household labour on the farm. Thus, a broader approach to water policy should also include public investment in achieving greater labour efficiency and productivity.     

Moral Hazard,Targeting and Contract Duration in Agri‐Environmental Policy

This article extends the multi‐period agri‐environmental contract model of Fraser (Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 55 , (2004) pp. 525–540) to include a more realistic specification of the inter‐temporal penalties for non‐compliance, and therefore of the inter‐temporal moral hazard problem in agri‐environmental policy design. It is shown that a farmer has an unambiguous preference for cheating early over cheating late in the contract period based on differences in the expected cost of compliance. It is then shown how the principal can make use of this unambiguous preference to target monitoring resources intertemporally, and in so doing, to encourage full contract duration compliance.     

Stocks‐to‐use ratios and prices as indicators of vulnerability to spikes in global cereal markets

We identify critical stocks‐to‐use ratios (SURs) for major grains and for an index of total calories from these grains. The latter appears to be a promising indicator of vulnerability to large price spikes when the current price shows no cause for concern. More generally, our results suggest that stocks data, though no doubt unreliable, can be valuable complements to price data as indicators of vulnerability to shortages and price spikes.     

Impacts of the End of the Coffee Export Quota System on International‐to‐Retail Price Transmission

We examine the impact of the end of the coffee export quota system (EQS) on international‐to‐retail price transmission in France, Germany and the United States. We take account of the existence of long‐run threshold effects and short‐run price transmission asymmetries (PTAs). We find evidence of threshold effects in both periods (EQS and post‐EQS) in all three countries and the presence of short‐run PTAs during the post‐EQS period in all countries, but not during the EQS period. Our results indicate that the threshold values are smaller in the post‐EQS period, suggesting that retail prices became more responsive to changes in international prices. However, the speed of adjustment towards the long‐run equilibrium decreases during the post‐EQS period in the three countries. In the short run, non‐linear impulse response analyses indicate that a shock in international prices was more persistent during the EQS period than in the post‐EQS period. Moreover, we find evidence of short‐run PTAs in the post‐EQS period, with differences across countries. We find support for the ‘rockets and feathers’ principle in the United States; in contrast, retail prices respond faster when international prices are falling in Germany and France. We explain these differences in terms of market structures.     

Does Market Structure Influence Price Transmission in the Agro‐food Sector? A Meta‐analysis Perspective

There exists a large literature on price transmission in agro‐food sectors. However, a great majority of empirical studies focus on the existence of asymmetry and, by and large, do not investigate the reason for its presence or absence. This is in sharp contrast to the theoretical literature that provides a number of explanations of why we should expect (a)symmetry. In response, this paper investigates the reasons for asymmetric price transmission in the agro‐food chain, using meta‐analysis of existing studies. Our focus is on the organizational and institutional characteristics of the agro‐food supply chain. Our findings suggest that asymmetric price transmission in farm–retail relationships is more likely to occur in sectors/countries with more fragmented farm structure, higher governmental support and more restrictive regulations on price controls in the retail sector. On the other hand, more restrictive regulations on entry barriers in the retail sector and the relative importance of the sector tend to promote symmetric farm–retail price transmission. The latter is also more likely in the presence of a strong processing industry.     

Adoption of farm‐based irrigation water‐saving techniques in the Guanzhong Plain,China

This article analyses adoption of farm‐based irrigation water saving techniques, based on a cross‐sectional data set of 357 farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, China. Approximately 83% of the farmers use at least one farm‐based water‐saving technique. However, the traditional, inefficient techniques border and furrow irrigation are still prevalent whereas the use of advanced, more efficient techniques is still rather rare. We develop and estimate an adoption model consisting of two stages: awareness of water scarcity and intensity of adoption. We find that awareness of water scarcity and financial status enhance adoption of more advanced techniques whereas access to better community‐based irrigation infrastructure discourages it. We furthermore find both community‐based irrigation infrastructure and farm‐based irrigation water‐saving techniques have mitigating effects on production risk. From the results it follows that adoption can be stimulated via financial support and via extension aimed at enhancing awareness of water scarcity.