The global bond sell‐off – why and where next?

• The rise in global bond yields since mid‐April has taken markets by surprise. Our analysis suggests that, on balance, some upward correction in yields was justified – especially in the Eurozone. For the US, the evidence is more mixed.
• A variety of explanations have been advanced to explain the bond sell‐off including Eurozone reflation/inflation, looming US rate hikes and associated uncertainty, liquidity and other technical factors, Chinese reflation and a simple reversal of yields overshooting to the downside.
• Some of these explanations are more convincing than others: in our view there is some modest evidence for increased uncertainty and liquidity effects but we also think bonds have corrected from overbought levels, especially in the Eurozone.
• Using some econometric models of bond yields suggests that the recent upward correction of German yields was probably justified; markets had pushed yields too low earlier in 2015. Indeed, the model implies a further ‘corrective’ rise in yields is possible.
• For the US, different models give slightly different results – a variant of the well‐known Shiller‐Modigliani model suggests yields should still be below 2%. However, a broader error‐correction model including factors such as fiscal variables and foreign flows into US bonds suggests the recent rise in yields was broadly justified.

     

‘Eco’ For Whom? Envisioning Eco‐urbanism in the Sino‐Singapore Tianjin Eco‐city,China

Eco‐cities have attracted international attention from governments, corporations, academics and other actors seeking to use sustainable urban planning to reduce urban environmental impacts. China has devoted significant political will and economic resources to the development of new‐build eco‐city projects, reflecting the Chinese government's goals to build a ‘harmonious society' in which environmental sustainability and social stability are mutually reinforcing. We critically analyse the case of the Sino‐Singapore Tianjin eco‐city to demonstrate that the eco‐city's ecologically modernizing visions of eco‐urbanism construct a protective environment for its residents that constrains broader consideration of social sustainability. Through analysis of the marketing and presentation of specific domestic and other spaces of the eco‐city, we examine the application of ecologically modernizing construction and technology to the design of the city. We argue that the eco‐city is discursively constructed as ecologically beneficial for its inhabitants rather than for the broader socio‐environmental landscape. Our analysis of residential spaces in Tianjin eco‐city introduces the question of what ‘eco’ means when considering the construction of eco‐urban environments for the city's residents.     

Sudden Unintended Used‐Price Deceleration? The 2009–2010 Toyota Recalls

Using data from the vehicle resale market, I test consumer responsiveness to large‐scale product recalls that are caused by safety problems. The used‐vehicle prices of Toyotas are compared to the used‐vehicle prices of the other major domestic and foreign manufacturers. The results quantify the losses suffered by Toyota vehicle owners in secondary markets due to the 2009–2010 safety recalls of more than 9 million Toyota Motors vehicles. The treatment effect of a recall is measured using panel data with a difference‐in‐differences estimation approach that allows for time‐varying treatment effects and serial correlation. I find that this recall episode had negative effects in the resale market for automobiles that were quantitatively small (less than 2% of the vehicle’s resale value), statistically indistinguishable from zero, and short lived (did not persist beyond December 2009). A comparison with Audi’s recalls in the 1980s of vehicles with sudden unintended acceleration suggests that the extent to which a company’s reputation is established is more important than whether or not a company has a reputation for producing high‐quality products.     

‘My Brilliant Career’? New Organizational Forms and Changing Managerial Careers in Japan,the UK,and USA

The end of the traditional management career has been heralded with supporting, albeit largely anecdotal, data. The ‘old’ career was set within internal labour markets in large organizations and characterized by long‐term stability. The ‘new’ arrangements have apparently shifted responsibility from employer to employee, with careers being developed across organizations. Such change is premised on new organizational forms and is often associated with a growing sense of employee insecurity. We explore the reality of this ‘new’ scenario through interpretation of in‐depth semi‐structured interviews conducted with middle and senior human resources managers in large firms in Japan, the UK, and USA. The data indicate that most of our case study organizations had downsized and delayered, with hybrid structural forms emerging. Career prospects were diminished, with fewer vertical promotions and a greater emphasis on lateral ‘development’; middle managers were generally resentful of such factors and forces. Although not directly reflective of ‘Anglo‐American’ business practice, similar changes to career trajectories were witnessed in Japan as in the UK and USA.     

Varieties of capitalism,neoliberalism and the economic crisis of 2008–?

This article examines the responses of national governments to the economic crisis that commenced in 2008. We argue that the current search for new bases for accumulation is leading to reforms designed to weaken the position of labour. Moreover, the tendency towards a weakening of labour's position was already evident across different ‘varieties of capitalism’ before the crisis erupted. We discuss the implications for comparative institutional analysis and stress the need for a renewed focus on the underlying dynamics of capitalist economies.     

Preventing the “Abuses” of Democracy: Hayek,the “Military Usurper” and Transitional Dictatorship in Chile?

Hayek famously claimed that he would prefer a “liberal” dictator to “democratic government lacking in liberalism.” While Hayek's views of the Pinochet regime have generated much controversy, surprisingly little has been written about Hayek's defense of transitional dictatorship. Making use of previously un‐translated foreign language archival material, this paper helps shed light on Hayek's views of authoritarianism, totalitarianism, transitional dictatorship, and the Pinochet regime as well as helping to separate Hayekian ‘fact’ from Hayekian ‘fiction’.     

‘What problems you got?’: managerialisation and union organising in the voluntary sector

This article explores how government public service modernisation policies have impacted on management practices and employment conditions in voluntary sector welfare organisations and the problems unions have encountered in responding to such impacts in the context of public service modernisation. The study finds that employees encounter problems developing workplace union organisation and unions face problems developing a coherent strategy on support for the sector and for resisting public sector reform, which hinders trade union resistance. The implications of this may be important in strengthening managerial control over the public service labour process.     

‘Tuning Out' or ‘Tuning in'? Mobile Music Listening and Intensified Encounters with the City

Mobile music listening has become an increasingly pervasive part of urban life. Yet it represents an area of enquiry with which urban studies scholars have yet to engage meaningfully. This essay considers the role of mobile music devices in creating new sonic, emotional and social interactions with and within the city. While academic work in this area has emphasized the use of these devices as a ‘tuning out' of the physicality of the city, we suggest that they might also be used as part of a ‘tuning in' that enhances the meaning and intensity of engagements with the city. In making this case, the essay considers two areas of academic enquiry that highlight the use of mobile music devices in intensified engagements with the city: first, recent writing on the sonic ecologies of the city that emphasize ‘city sounds' as part of the urban experience; and secondly, recent advances in the field of urban computing that provide technologies for location‐aware music exchanges and mediated social interactions. The essay emphasizes mobile music listening as one area of critical enquiry that can help develop our understanding of the ways in which the pervasiveness of mobile devices is recalibrating the experience of urban spatiality.     

Secular stagnation ‐ are we stuck in Summers' long winter?

• Stunningly low global long‐term bond yields provide some credence to a secular stagnation view of the world. We present an analytical framework – culminating in a simple scorecard – for assessing the extent to which purported drivers and manifestations of secular stagnation match global economic and financial developments and we compare with a complementary narrative focusing on balance sheet boom and bust. We find some support for each, but think global rates will not stay as low for as long as markets price in.
• Larry Summers has used the term to refer to a situation where demand and supply for savings deliver very low equilibrium real interest rates. The bulge in middle‐aged savers, falling prices of investment goods, and flows of savings ‘uphill’ from emerging markets may have all led to real rates trending much lower in recent decades.
• Another version of the story is that slow technical progress depresses demand for borrowing, and pushes down on real rates. This is less compelling, and based more on anecdote than anything else. There are as many reasons to be optimistic, as pessimistic, about the supply side.
• There are holes in the secular stagnation narrative. Until very recently, G7 savings rates have trended down rather than up, partly because of another decades‐long trend of financial innovation. Furthermore, few economists, nor the Fed or the BoE, expect policy rates in the US or UK to stay low for as long as is priced in to markets.
• A complementary narrative would stress the role of the credit‐fuelled mega‐boom and subsequent balance sheet blow out and Great Recession, and then the long road to financial repair. This is more consistent with the path of savings rates over recent decades, and the policy response – including QE – can explain much of the rest.
• We see the two explanations as complementary and reinforcing. In global terms, they appear no better or worse than each other. Comparing across countries, Japan comes closest to resembling secular stagnation, followed by EZ, US and UK, according to our scorecard.
• We think ultra‐low long rates will not be borne out by the future path of short rates, but acknowledge a significant risk they might, for example, if monetary policy remains too tight on average because of zero bound effects on interest rates and limited scope for fiscal accommodation.

     

‘Who Knows What?’ in New Venture Teams: Transactive Memory Systems as a Micro‐Foundation of Entrepreneurial Orientation

The increasing importance of entrepreneurial behaviour has led scholars to embrace the idea that an entrepreneurial orientation (EO) is an important predictor of firm performance. While EO occupies a central position in strategic entrepreneurship research, scholars have yet to explore its origins in new ventures. Drawing on the knowledge‐based and cognitive views, we theorize that a new venture team's transactive memory system is a cognitive mechanism that spurs the development of an EO. In a field study of high‐tech new ventures in China, we examined the relationship between venture teams’ transactive memory systems (representing the distribution, integration, and utilization of the teams’ knowledge) and EO and the moderating influence of team‐, firm‐, and environment‐level factors. We found that the transactive memory system of a new venture team enhanced their EO and that this relationship was positively influenced by intra‐team trust, the structural organicity of a venture, and environmental dynamism. Our findings provide novel insights into the micro‐foundations of TMS in developing an EO in new ventures.     

‘What Happens when the Phone goes Wild?’: Staff,Stress and Spaces for Escape in a BPR Telephone Banking Work Regime

This paper explores the experiences of staff working under a business process re-engineering (BPR) work regime. We examine the nature of work within a team-based, multi-skilled and empowered environment within financial services. Despite mixed responses our case study indicates that for those employees who remain in employment after ‘re-engineering’, working conditions may become more stressful and intensive. Although some staff may welcome those elements of a BPR work regime that facilitate a more varied work experience, the possibilities for satisfaction are often curtailed due to management$apos; preoccupation with productivity and ‘bottom line’ results. In practice BPR is neither as simple to implement nor as ‘rational’ in its content as the gurus would have us believe. Partly for these reasons it is also not as coercive in its control over labour as some critics fear. While managers may only want to encourage employee autonomy that is productive to its ends, we identify a number of occasions where autonomy is disruptive of corporate goals. The paper seeks to add to our understanding of ‘stress’, ‘resistance’ and management ‘control’ by considering the ways in which staff engage in the operation of BPR so as to maintain and reproduce these conditions. This dynamic cannot be understood, however, outside of the relations of power and inequality that characterize society and employment.     

Brexit and world growth – what are the risks?

• The initial global market reaction to the UK Brexit vote was very negative and in our view overdone. Nevertheless, we expect the uncertainty to linger for a while, with the vote having refocused investors on existing vulnerabilities in the world economy. Our new forecasts see the main negative impacts on growth being in the UK, the Eurozone and Japan. Risks to our new forecasts remain skewed to the downside, with a significant danger of world growth dropping below 2% this year.
• Our new forecasts see UK growth dropping to 1.4% a year in 2017–18, down from 2.2–2.3% a year before. In the Eurozone, growth will be around 0.2% a year weaker in 2017–18 and Japan is also a loser as a result of the risk aversion‐driven stronger yen, with growth at just 0.3% in 2017 from 0.5%.
• The size of the initial global market sell‐off makes no sense in the context of the likely impact from a weaker UK. In part, it seems to have reflected the pricing in of very negative scenarios in the Eurozone. But investors may also be worrying about other global problems glossed over in recent months.
• One risk to our forecast is that confidence effects on businesses and consumers are larger than we expect – but such effects are often overstated. Another danger is that more of the recent financial market weakness will ‘stick’ than our new baseline forecasts assume.
• Our world recession indicator is already at elevated levels and suggests a significant danger of world growth slipping below 2% this year; not a recession, but it might feel like one. Global policymakers need to act quickly to head off the risks.

     

“Why did I do this?”: Understanding leadership behavior through a dynamic five‐factor model of leadership

Leadership theories referring to complex adaptive system theory (CAS) describe leadership as a dynamic process of interdependent, cooperating agents. However, research on leadership behavior focuses mainly on the leader as an influencing, active agent. This article offers a different perspective by focusing on factors that influence leadership behavior. A dynamic five‐factor model of leadership is introduced, which identifies (1) the leader's individual competence, (2) the group, (3) the organization, (4) the context, and (5) the immediate situation as all influencing factors on leadership behavior. To address the problem of the procedural nature of leadership behavior, the dynamic five‐factor model is combined with a scenario‐based approach. The scenario approach focuses on situational developments in a given context, whereby a previous situation influences a leader's behavior in the subsequent situation. By integrating the dynamic five‐factor model into a scenario approach, one can understand a leader's behavior in its procedural nature. The practical usability of the dynamic five‐factor model and the scenario approach was assessed in a leadership development program with 81 military officers. Structured feedback from participants indicated that the model and the approach were perceived as helpful and relevant for understanding leadership behavior.     

What are ‘unpopular causes’ and how can they achieve fundraising success?

• Recent efforts to grow and strengthen the culture of philanthropy in the UK have largely focused on two dimensions: the total amount of money donated and the effectiveness of philanthropic spending. This paper explores a third dimension: the destination and distribution of donations. A defining characteristic of charitable giving is that it is voluntary rather than coerced, and the resulting respect for donor autonomy makes people wary of promoting one cause above another or implying that any beneficiary group is more or less ‘worthy’ of support. However, the absence of much comment on, or significant research into, the destination of donations does not alter the fact that some groups succeed in attracting significant philanthropic funds whilst others struggle to secure many—or any—donations. This paper explores the concept of ‘unpopularity’ in the charity sector, especially in relation to its impact on fundraising. We unpack what this loaded phrase means, identify good practice by those seeking support and present case studies of charities that have overcome perceived unpopularity to achieve success in raising voluntary income. We suggest that by investing organisational resources and effort in fundraising, by framing the cause to maximise the arousal of sympathy and minimise concerns about beneficiary culpability and by avoiding the unintended negative consequences of self‐labelling as ‘unpopular’ no charity need assume it is their destiny to languish at the bottom of the fundraising league tables.

Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Labour under the law: a new law of combination,and master and servant,in 21st‐century Britain?

It is valuable to evaluate contemporary employment law on industrial action and trade unions, and employment protection, in relation to the 19th‐century law of combination, and master and servant. Such a historical comparison, despite differing language and legal sanctions, focuses attention on the goal of legal ‘reform’—the drive to control workers' collective organisations and enhance the managerial prerogative in order to consolidate employers' capacity to determine the terms of the contract of employment or for services, and the content of the pay–effort bargain, that is, the real subordination of labour. It is a form of class struggle from above.     

Who Will We Recruit? Targeting Deep‐ and Surface‐Level Diversity with Human Resource Policy Advertising

Research on targeted recruitment has focused on targeting applicants with surface‐level attributes such as underrepresented demographic groups. The present study extends targeted recruitment research by examining how advertising human resource policies might be useful for targeting both surface‐ and deep‐level attributes. Specifically, the current study uses an experimental design to examine the impact of work‐family, diversity, and employee development policies on the job‐pursuit intentions of working adults in the United States. We examined surface‐ (demographic characteristics; e.g., race) and deep‐level differences (attitudes or values; e.g., diversity values) as predictors of whether participants intend to pursue jobs with firms advertising these human resource (HR) policies. Deep‐level differences consistently predicted job‐pursuit intentions for all three HR policies, but only marginal support was obtained for surface‐level variables as predictors. Findings suggest that targeted recruitment based on deep‐level attributes may be more successful than targeted recruitment based on surface‐level factors.     

Private equity, ‘union recognition’ and value extraction at the Automobile Association: The GMB as an emergency service?

This article evaluates union recognition and ‘value extraction’ in a private equity buy‐out. The article reviews private equity, investor value and ownership interests, details union recognition at the Automobile Association (AA) before and after its acquisition by private equity, and reviews the GMB's wider campaign of opposition to private equity ownership.