The International Implications of the United States Telecommunications Act

This paper revisits the premises and promises of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010. It argues that it was based on flawed premises and for that reason failed to lay the foundation for substantive reform. By design, and at the behest of the banks, it lacks the explicit rules and bright lines that are critical to lasting and effective financial regulation. Also missing is a plausible end to "Too Big To Fail" financial institutions, over-leverage, and irresponsible (including fraudulent) risk-taking. The article closes with several concrete suggestions for strengthening regulatory agencies and improving financial regulation.     

Settling the Smoke: Public Policy and Shareholder Wealth in the Cigarette Industry

This article uses daily data on stock returns of five U.S. publicly traded cigarette producers to document the wealth effects of antismoking policies initiated in the period 1964 to 1971. The authors find significant abnormal returns across 23 dates corresponding to important regulatory events. The second-stage estimation shows that wealth effects are also influenced by firm characteristics, such as market share, advertising intensity, percentage of sales of filter-tip cigarettes, percentage of advertising expenditures devoted to TV and radio, and tobacco leaf inventories. Overall, the article estimates that industry losses from antismoking policies amounted to approximately $1.5 billion. (JEL L66 , G14 , I18 )     

United States Immigration Policy: The 1965 Act and its Consequences

The United States Immigration Act of 1965 was followed by a steep upward trend in total immigration, and by a dramatic shift in the source‐country composition away from Europe and towards Asia and Latin America. In this paper I ask if and how the 1965 Act generated these unanticipated consequences. The result was partly because of the pre‐existing legislation and partly because of the admission of immigrants outside the terms of the Act. However, much of it was a result of the Act itself, and specifically because of family reunification effects that were larger, the poorer the source country.     

国际多市场寡头条件下的贸易政策和产业政策

国际多市场寡头是Bulow( 1 985)提出的多市场寡头概念在国际贸易领域的自然延伸。在本文中 ,市场之间联系的纽带是本国企业具有规模收益递减的生产技术。本文的主要结论是 ,第一 ,如果本国企业与外国企业在外国市场进行价格竞争 ,那么 ,最优干预组合包括国内生产补贴与出口税 ,它们对本国福利的作用是一致的。第二 ,如果本国企业与外国企业在外国市场进行数量竞争 ,那么 ,最优干预政策组合包括国内生产补贴与出口补贴 ,它们作用于本国福利的方向是不一致的 ,这时 ,本国政府用国内生产补贴执行反托拉斯职能 ,用出口补贴执行利润转移职能。第三 ,作为模型的一个应用 ,本文论证了出口退税政策会加剧国内市场的扭曲 ;而且它不一定能够提高本国福利。     

The Ancillary Benefits from Climate Policy in the United States

This study investigates the benefits to human health that would occur in the United States (US) due to reductions in local air pollutant emissions stemming from a federal policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In order to measure the impacts of reduced emissions of local pollutants, this study considers the Warner-Lieberman bill (S.2191) of 2007 and the paper considers the impacts of reduced emissions in the transport and electric power sectors. This analysis provides strong evidence that climate change policy in the US will generate significant returns to society in excess of the benefits due to climate stabilization. The total health-related co-benefits associated with a representative climate policy over the years 2010–2030 range between 103 billion and103 billion and 1.2 trillion in present value terms. Much of the co-benefit stems from between 32,000 and 189,000 avoided premature mortalities associated with exposure to PM_2.5 and O₃. Most of the co-benefits are due to reduced emissions of SO₂ from coal-fired power plants since these are an important contribution to ambient concentrations of PM_2.5. Among the most important determinants of co-benefits is the relationship between climate policy and existing policies governing SO₂ discharges from coal-fired power generation capacity. If SO₂ emissions are permitted to remain at current levels, total co-benefits are cut by 65%. We find that the co-benefit per ton of CO₂ emissions ranges between 1 and1 and 77 depending on modeling assumptions and year.     

The Political Economy of Tax-Based Incomes Policy: Wealth Effects of Post Keynesian TIP

This paper explores the economics of electoral democracy, an almost entirely neglected subject. Running for office necessitates resources. But students of democracy have had almost nothing to say about how much money should be spent by candidates or where that money should come from. As a result, there is a gaping void in the theory of democracy. Joseph A. Schumpeter used a market analogy in his discussion of the electoral process, but even he did not discuss how electoral campaigns are to be paid for. In fact, the few citizens who largely fund campaigns for office in the United States purchase non-rivalrous influence. They obtain the ability to shape the policies that affect all citizens. In this way, political equality is undermined. The paper concludes that achieving a more representative political system can best be attained by treating political campaigns as a public good.     

A Head-to-Head Comparison of Augmented Wealth in Germany and the United States*

We examine the composition of augmented household wealth (i.e., the sum of net worth and pension wealth) in the United States and Germany. Pension wealth makes up a considerable portion of household wealth, of about 48 percent in the United States and 61 percent in Germany. When pension wealth is included in household wealth, the Gini coefficient falls from 0.889 to 0.700 in the United States, and from 0.755 to 0.508 in Germany. If the wealth shares in Germany were the same as in the United States, this would lead to a 12.6 percent increase in the Gini coefficient in the augmented wealth distribution in Germany.     

Minimum Wage Policy and Poverty in the United States

Recent studies have found that increasing the minimum wage is a useful antipoverty tool. In this analysis, we examine the influence of minimum wages and other important variables on US family poverty rates using state data over the years 1984-98 by estimating both a fixed effect and random coefficients regression model. Taking into account labor market influences, demographic factors, and differences in poverty rates across states, we find that expanding the minimum wage coverage and increasing labor force participation both have larger effects on poverty rates as compared to equivalent changes in the level of the minimum wage. It is further implied from the empirical results that the most effective means of lifting families out of poverty are policies that are directed toward increasing minimum wage coverage, encouraging increased labor force participation, raising the minimum wage, and subsidizing higher education, respectively.     

Vintage Effects In Human Capital: Europe Versus The United States

The standard assumption in growth accounting is that an hour worked by a worker of given type delivers a constant quantity of labor services over time. This assumption may be violated due to vintage effects, which were shown to be important in the United States since the early 1980s, leading to an underestimation of the growth of labor input (Bowlus anA1d Robinson, 2012). We apply their method for identifying vintage effects to a comparison between the United States and six European countries. We find that vintage effects led to increases of labor services per hour worked by high-skilled workers in the United States and United Kingdom and decreases in Continental European countries between 1995 and 2005. Rather than a productivity growth advantage of the US and UK, the primary difference with Continental European countries was human capital vintage effects instead.     

Saving,Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States*

Under the life‐cycle saving model, population aging leads to an increased demand for life‐cycle wealth. Changes in transfer systems create or destroy one component of life‐cycle wealth—transfer wealth. The decline in the familial transfer system in Taiwan and reform of the US Social Security system are two examples of ways that transfer wealth is reduced. The combined effects of aging and changes in transfer systems are analyzed using simulation analysis. Rapid aging and radical decline in transfer systems lead to a large but transitory surge in aggregate saving. Capital per worker increases rapidly and remains at a high level.     

美国量化宽松货币政策影响及中国对策

随着金融危机的不断蔓延和影响的逐渐深化,美国在采取第一轮和第二轮量化宽松货币政策失效后,还可能采取第三轮量化宽松货币政策来稳定和刺激经济。此种极端货币政策引发多米诺骨牌效应,并将对中国经济产生深远影响。对此,文章从量化宽松货币政策产生的机理出发,在着重分析美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济可能造成影响的基础上,提出中国所应采取的应对策略,以减缓量化宽松货币政策对中国经济可能产生的不利影响。     

In the Shadow of the United States: The International Transmission Effect of Asset Returns

We examine how fluctuations in financial and housing markets in the United States affect asset returns and GDP in Hong Kong. In contrast to studies using linear specifications, which find that the United States and Hong Kong are virtually delinked in terms of the asset markets, our regime‐switching models indicate that an unexpected change in US stock returns, followed by the TED spread, has the most significant effect on Hong Kong asset returns and GDP, typically in a regime of high return and low volatility. For in‐sample one‐step‐ahead forecasting, the US term spread is the best predictor.     

Regulating the United States Railroads: The Effects of Sunk Costs and Asymmetric Risk

The Surface Transportation Board (STB) applies the theory of contestable markets to regulate dominant railroad freight movements. The STB bases its determination whether railroad revenues are excessive if they would be more than sufficient to support investment in a hypothetical stand-alone railroad designed to handle the at-issue traffic efficiently. The STB regulatory approach does not take correct account of the importance of sunk costs and irreversible investments in the railroad industry. We estimate how large the mistakes can be by applying a real options approach that takes into account the effect of sunk costs, irreversible investment, and asymmetric returns.     

Competition Policy towards Vertical Restraints in Europe and the United States

Following a brief review of the economic analysis of vertical restraints, we discuss current policy standards in both Europe and the United States. Since 1981, U.S. policy towards these restraints has been lax, and no restraints were challenged during the 12-year period between January 1981 and January 1993. More recently, the pendulum has shifted back somewhat and there is renewed interest by enforcement officials in this area. In contrast, European policy standards have been more stringent, and have paid particular attention to vertically imposed restraints that can limit trade among member countries. To a large part, their different treatment may primarily reflect the lack of consensus as to their long-run economic consequences. Consistent policy standards across jurisdictions are not likely to arise until there is general consensus as to the economic implications of these restraints.     

美国应对气候变化政策新动向及其影响

奥巴马第二任期开始以来,美国政府在应对气候变化方面有一系列新动向,包括发布美国国家气候评估报告(草案)、力促相关行政措施出台、推动中美签署《中美应对气候变化联合声明》、针对德班平台谈判提出“轴辐式协议”全球气候治理框架等。一方面,由于国内政治因素的影响,美国的气候变化政策不会发生大的变化;另一方面,由于美国在全球经济、政治和外交中具有强大的综合实力,这些最新动向仍将对国际气候制度走向和全球低碳发展产生一定影响。我国在推动建立公平合理有效的国际气候制度和新型中美大国关系过程中,需谨慎权衡利弊,同时,从立法、财税、金融、标准、低碳技术研发与推广应用方面切实推进我国低碳发展。