Hedonic price and depreciation indexes for residential housing: A longitudinal approach

An equilibrium price relation is derived for price changes in durable goods capable of generating a hedonic, or quality-corrected, price index, and an index of depreciation. The structure proposed is applicable particularly to housing markets, where longitudinal, or repeat-sale data are readily available from assessment or real estate sources. The separation permits not only the construction of a true price index, but also allows tests of various functional forms for depreciation, notably the geometric function. As an application of the proposed structure, estimates are presented for single-family dwellings in surburban London, Ontario, 1967–1975.     

Depreciation, Maintenance, and Housing Prices

This paper investigates the effect of homeowner maintenance and improvements on the depreciation rate for housing and on house price indexes. We examine three specifications of a hedonic house price model: one that includes a variable for age, as a proxy for depreciation, and an age–maintenance interaction variable; one that considers depreciation but ignores maintenance; and one that ignores both depreciation and maintenance. The remarks of the listing agent as to the property's condition is our proxy for the level of maintenance characterizing the home. In our sample, we find that poorly maintained homes depreciate at a much faster rate than do homes with average maintenance, and that well-maintained homes depreciate somewhat more slowly. Omitting maintenance from the variable specification has little impact on hedonic house price indexes constructed with our data, but failing to consider dwelling age imparts a significant and growing downward bias to the indexes. Monte Carlo simulations investigating various data specifications support our empirical findings.     

House price depreciation rates and level of maintenance

My objective in this paper is to estimate different depreciation rates of house prices depending on the level of maintenance of the property and the location of the property. I do this by supplementing transaction price data with owner information about level of maintenance. The result indicates that the level of maintenance has a substantial impact on the price level. Since maintenance offsets some of the physical deterioration of the property, the depreciation rate will be lowered by maintenance, ceteris paribus. To be able to estimate maintenance effects on depreciation rates, I isolated the interaction effect between the level of maintenance and the age of the property to allow for the fact that maintenance has an impact on the effective age of the property. In this study, I separate maintenance into indoor and outdoor maintenance levels (or absence of maintenance).My results show that the depreciation rates are significantly different for a maintained property and for a property that is not maintained. The price difference between a 40-year-old property (built in 1960) and maintained both indoors and outdoors and a property of the same age that is not maintained is about 13% (−10% compared to −23% in total age effect). The absence of outdoor maintenance has more impact on price depreciation rates.     

易逝品价值衰减对动态定价影响研究

消费者对部分易逝品感知风险会随时间提高,感知价值也随之衰减。本文基于消费者感知价值衰减建立连续和离散时间的动态定价模型以研究消费者感知价值衰减对动态定价和厂商期望收益的影响,并以连续时间模型为基准评价离散定价次数对期望收益的影响。数值算例表明,消费者感知价值衰减时,即使采取相应的最优策略,厂商期望收益下降幅度仍然可能达到30％,而如果厂商忽略消费者感知价值衰减,其损失可能高达60％。     

Estimation of a continuous-time dynamic demand system

A continuous-time dynamic model of consumers' demand, explicitly taking account of the roles of depreciation, interest rates, habits, and stocks, is estimated using recently developed techniques from discrete quarterly UK data on three broad commodity groupings. The results suggest that, whilst being a significant determinant of demand, the actual magnitude of the influence of changes in interest rates may be relatively small in the long run. The cross-price effects of durable goods are also found to be statistically significant, and symmetry of long-run compensated price responses is not rejected.     

Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries

There are two major findings from our time-series estimations. First, we find that there is no long-run significant relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in the G-7 countries. This result interfaces with Bahmani-Oskooee and Sohrabian’s (1992) finding, but contrasts with the studies that suggest there be a significant relationship between these two financial variables. Our second finding is that the short-run significant relationship has only been found for one day in certain G-7 countries. For instance, currency depreciation often drags down stock returns in the German financial market, but it stimulates the Canadian and UK markets on the following day. However, an increase in stock price often causes currency depreciation the next day in Italy and Japan. In addition, we also find that the record of stock price and the value of the dollar cannot be depended on when predicting the future in the US, either in the short-run or long-run.     

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEXES AND THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

This paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts (SNA). Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input components of a commercial property are required in the Production Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the SNA. The paper reviews existing methods for constructing an overall Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and concludes that most methods are biased (due to their neglect of depreciation) and more importantly, not able to provide separate land and structure subindexes. A class of hedonic regression models that is not subject to these problems is discussed.     

Residential Hedonic Models: A Rational Expectations Approach to Age Effects

This paper develops a rational expectations framework for interpreting the coefficient on age in a standard hedonic model. The model demonstrates that there are two components to the age coefficient: a pure cross-sectional depreciation component and a demand-side component that changes over time. We also show that a constant quality price index with age constant can be estimated by using any repeat sales database that contains the year of construction (or property age). When Fairfax County data are fitted to the model, the time series of age coefficients is non-stationary: they change from negative in the early 1980s to positive in the late 1980s; we infer that the demand-side component dominated in the latter period.     

Real Balances, the Price Level and the Unit of Account

A bstract It is argued that Patinkin's introduction in his 1956 book of the stability analysis of the price level resulted in great measure from his reading of Wicksell's 1898 Interest and Prices. Both Patinkin and Wicksell based their treatments of the stability of the price level on what Patinkin used to call the "real balance effect." That effect, however, does not operate under Wicksell's assumption of a competitive "pure credit economy", where all transactions are carried out by bookkeeping transfers, and the unit of account is the same unit in which the accounts of banks are kept. In that case, Patinkin showed in the second (1965) edition of his book that the real balance effect–and, by that, the stability of the price level–would still be a feature of the system if profit maximizer banks held reserves, created by the central bank to settle temporary imbalances at the clearinghouse. According to Wicksell, on the other hand, a pure credit economy should consist of a central bank that attracts and remunerates deposits at the same interest rate charged for its loans, plus profit maximizer financial intermediaries that lend money for risky projects. The basic rate of interest set by the central bank decides, accordingly, the price level in such an economy. Wicksell's and Patinkin's approaches differ from the view put forward in the 1980s by the so-called "new monetary economics" that the key to price level stabilization is the separation of the function of money as the unit of account from its function as the medium of exchange in pure accounting systems of exchange.     

Learning and stability of the Bayesian–Walrasian equilibrium

Under the Bayesian–Walrasian Equilibrium (BWE) (see Balder and Yannelis, 2009), agents form price estimates based on their own private information, and in terms of those prices they can formulate estimated budget sets. Then, based on his/her own private information, each agent maximizes interim expected utility subject to his/her own estimated budget set. From the imprecision due to the price estimation it follows that the resulting equilibrium allocation may not clear the markets for every state of nature, i.e., exact feasibility of allocations may not occur. This paper shows that if the economy is repeated from period to period and agents refine their private information by observing the past BWE, then in the limit all agents will obtain the same information and market clearing will be reached. The converse is also true. The analysis provides a new way of looking at the asymmetric equilibrium which has a statistical foundation.     

Large traders and illiquid options: Hedging vs. manipulation

In this article, we study the effects on derivative pricing arising from price impacts by large traders. When a large trader issues a derivative and (partially) hedges his risk by trading in the underlying, he influences both his hedge portfolio and the derivative's payoff. In a Black–Scholes model with a price impact on the drift, we analyze the resulting trade-off by explicitly solving the utility maximization problem of a large investor endowed with an illiquid contingent claim. We find several interesting phenomena which cannot occur in frictionless markets. First, the indifference price is a convex function of the contingent claim – and not concave as in frictionless markets – implying that for any claim the buyer's indifference price is larger than the seller's indifference price. Second, the seller's indifference prices of large positions in derivatives are smaller than the Black–Scholes replication costs. Therefore, a large trader might have an incentive to issue options if they are traded at Black–Scholes prices. Furthermore, he hedges option positions only partly if he has a negative price impact and thus exploits his ability to manipulate the option's payoff. For a positive price impact he overhedges the option position leading to an extra profit from the stock position exceeding a perfect hedge. Finally, we also study a model where the large shareholder has a price impact on both drift and volatility.     

Exchange rate sensitivity of US bilateral trade flows

The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices. To this end, most previous studies used aggregate trade data. To avoid aggregation biases potentially hidden in aggregate data, recent studies have relied on bilateral trade data. Since import and export price data is not available on bilateral level, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation on bilateral trade flows. The models are applied between the US and her 19 industrial trading partners using recent advances in time-series modeling.     

Housing appreciation (depreciation) and owners’ welfare

This paper extends Frank’s (2006) very simple model to analyze the welfare effects of appreciation and depreciation in a world with borrowing, property taxes, and moving costs. It is shown that appreciation can make homeowners worse off but that even when there is a property tax depreciation can not make homeowners who intend to stay in their house worse off. Our model provides a simple framework that can be used discuss the rationale for alternative policies to aid homeowners during periods of both appreciation and depreciation.     

Capitalization of Costs and Expected Earnings Growth

Abstract

This paper offers a model that shows how the capitalization of costs affects contemporaneous earnings and the growth path of expected earnings. It makes three points. First, reported earnings under successful efforts are more price relevant than earnings under full costing or full expensing. Second, whether conditional or unconditional, conservatism always enhances the growth rate of expected earnings. Third, independent of capitalization policy, the long-run expected earnings growth rate converges either to the long-run expected free cash flow growth rate or to the depreciation rate. Therefore, while capitalization policy affects the price relevance of earnings and short-run expected earnings growth, it does not affect long-run expected earnings growth.     

The Return on Women''s Human Capital and the Role of Male Attitudes Toward Working Wives

A BSTRACT . This study empirically investigates women's work interruption behavior in Taiwan and this behavior's influence on women's earnings. The most striking finding from our analysis of women's work history patterns is that a husband's negative attitude toward a working wife will more greatly discourage his wife from attaching to the labor market than will the presence of young children in the family. Thus, it is critical to educate men to give up their traditional attitudes toward gender roles in order to raise the female labor force participation rate in Taiwan. As to the effect of work interruption on earnings, a depreciation rate of 2.8% is found for women with at least a high-school level of education, while no penalty of foregone experience is shown for less-educated women. Since this depreciation effect may discourage women from re-entering the labor market, government programs encouraging self-employment should be helpful, as self-employed women find it easier to overcome the conflict between family obligations and work needs.     

The estimation of net depreciation rates on housing

The net depreciation of a house exclusive of maintenance is derived in the context of an intertemporal model. Estimates are presented for aggregation in depreciation and other restrictions. On the evidence, geometric net depreciation on houses-cum-land at 1% per annum appears to obtain.     

Capital maintenance and depreciation over the business cycle

This paper develops and estimates a stochastic general equilibrium model with capital maintenance, which affects endogenously the depreciation rate of capital. The estimate of maintenance series is found to track survey-based measures for Canada quite closely and to generate the procyclical pattern of maintenance observed in the data. We use our model estimates to infer the time profile of equipment capital depreciation in Canadian and US manufacturing. The depreciation rate is estimated to be volatile and highly procyclical in both countries.     

Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle

Standard housing price indexes rely on strong constant-quality assumptions and often conflict. Hedonic price indexes overcome limitations of median price and repeat-sales indexes but their implementation has been limited by a lack of data. This paper constructs hedonic indexes at the zip code level for the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas using considerably more detailed data than previously available. Our sample was collected by a mortgage technology firm, and consists of almost 1.1 million transactions during the boom-bust cycle since 2000. Our hedonic regressions include new spatial models that capture correlations within submarkets (using zip codes as proxies) and allow temporal asymmetry. Compared to a repeat-sales price index constructed from the same data, the hedonic indexes indicate that the market peaked about 11 months later in Los Angeles and about 2 months earlier in San Diego, show less pre-peak appreciation and post-peak depreciation in low-tier housing and more pre-peak appreciation in high-tier housing. We also find that the intensity of the cycle varies greatly across zip codes and price-tiers in a pattern consistent with foreclosure activity.     

A Linear Programming Model of the Consumer Price Index Food Component

A bstract A linear programming model is used to measure the rate of inflation in the food component of the consumer price index A diet model to minimize the cost of a diet subject to constraints on nutritive requirements, variety, pal-atabihty, and menu-function is constructed and the rates of increase in a strict minimum cost model and an expanded constraint model are measured for the period 1980-87 Consistent with the consumer utility literature, it is found that the current Laspeyres index approach to measuring the cost of living in fact provides an upper limit on true cost of living increases Results also show that the cost of maintaining a minimum level of subsistence increases more rapidly than the cost of a more palatable diet Finally, the results show that in fact there is very little room for substitution among food items within a reasonable diet model     

Bilateral trade flows and exchange rate sensitivity: Evidence from likelihood-based panel cointegration

This paper estimates price and income elasticities for bilateral trade equations between Sweden and her eight major trading partners for the period 1960–2001. The methodology used here is the likelihood-based panel cointegration recently developed in the literature. Evidence is found that depreciation of the SEK is expected to improve the Swedish export sector towards six of her eight major trading partners. Regarding Swedish imports, only in four of the eight cases, the price elasticity indicates that depreciation of the SEK decreases Swedish imports. Considering the Marshall–Lerner condition, this is fulfilled for two of the eight countries in the sample. The income elasticities are found to be positive for all countries in the sample. The policy implications of our results are discussed.