THE INTEGRATION OF MACRO AND MICRO DATA FOR THE HOUSEHOLD SECTOR1

National accounts in their present form do not serve very well as a framework for microdata, largely because of differing concepts and coverage in the macro and micro data. This article identifies the differences in sectoring and the handling of imputations and attributions between macro and micro data, and then proposes a form of presentation of the macro accounts that will facilitate their integration. Data for the United States in 1980 are used as an illustrative example. The final section explores the consequences of the proposed alterations in the macro accounts for the analysis of saving and investment and the accumulation and distribution of wealth, using U.S. data for the period since 1947. The article concludes that the proposed alterations do lead to new analytical insights, and further, that in their present form the national accounts are both misleading and inadequate.     

Bookkeeping conventions and the micro-macro link

The formal accounting logic of the national accounts and other macroeconomic statistics is not always well understood. In addition, the relation between macro statistics and micro accounting data often is not clear. This paper starts out by summarizing the main bookkeeping conventions at the macro level. A distinction is made between vertical and horizontal double-entry bookkeeping, which, if applied simultaneously, result in quadruple-entry bookkeeping. Vertical bookkeeping refers to the double-entry bookkeeping used in business practice. Horizontal bookkeeping requires that the transactions and other economic relationships between agents answer strict consistency rules regarding valuation, timing, and classification. At the micro level, this consistency is not guaranteed. The article reviews three options to reinforce the micro-macro link (proposals by Nancy and Richard Ruggles, proposals by Harry Postner, and the intermediate accounts in France), and concludes with a few suggestions that could be used in the upcoming revisions of the international statistical manuals.     

Heterogeneity in price setting behavior,spatial disparities and sectoral diversity: Evidence from a panel of Italian firms

In this paper, we analyze firms' pricing behavior using a full informative micro dataset that accounts for a large part of Italian firms. In our view, “the black boxes” to examine are the relations between price setting, market structure and spatial disparities. The paper aims to extend the empirical literature in several directions. A first goal of the research is to investigate the link between heterogeneity in price changes and spatial dependence. Besides, we compare the price dynamics among sectors, namely manufacturing vs. service. It is irrefutable that prices stickiness is linked to good market rigidities. Consequently, these issues have extremely important policy implications; for instance, the Monetary Authority considers the macro price indexes in order to determine the right policy to stabilize the economy and to improve social welfare. However, the Central Bank does not distinguish the likely aggregation bias source from the cross sector–region–country heterogeneities.     

RELIABILITY OF THE QUARTERLY NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1947–1971*

The reliability of the quarterly national income and product (NIP) accounts of the United States is examined from several standpoints. First, possible sources of error in the quarterly NIP accounts are explored, the most important being the lack of appropriate data, seasonal adjustment errors, sampling errors and biases, and the nature of the U.S. statistical system. Next, four ways of assessing the reliability of the accounts are considered. The most weight is given to measures of revisions in early estimates of the quarterly NIP aggregates. Results of previous studies of revisions are reviewed, and a summary of a major study of revisions for the period 1947–71 is given. The other ways of assessing reliability which are examined are the effect of errors on economic policy making, analysis of the statistical discrepancy, and expert judgment on sources and methodology. The degree of accuracy is judged to be generally sufficient for the policy decisions for which the NIP estimates are used. The early estimates of a quarter's change in GNP almost always distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be large or small and will usually distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be larger or smaller than the preceding quarter. While the accuracy of the estimates has generally been sufficient, the accuracy for 1965 was judged insufficient by policymakers. There is some evidence that errors have been reduced over time.     

双支柱调控的金融稳定效应研究

本文基于全球42个主要经济体1991—2016年的面板数据,系统考察了双支柱政策框架的金融稳定效应。实证结果表明：（1）货币政策和宏观审慎政策在抑制家庭信贷增长上具有显著作用,双支柱政策在缓解金融风险顺周期性上具有显著的金融稳定效应;（2）盯住贷款的宏观审慎工具和针对借款人、贷款人的宏观审慎组合具有更为显著的金融稳定效应;（3）新兴经济体的货币政策在抑制家庭信贷扩张上的作用不显著,但其宏观审慎政策的金融稳定效应相较发达经济体更为显著,发达经济体双支柱政策的金融稳定效应总体显著,其中货币政策效应更为突出;（4）发达经济体的货币政策效应在下行周期优于上行周期,宏观审慎政策及其与货币政策的交互效应在上行周期优于下行周期;（5）只有个别宏观审慎工具会对失业率、消费和物价产生微弱的负效应。     

美联储量化宽松政策对全球资产价格的非平衡溢出效应

本文采用全局向量自回归模型分析了美联储QE对采用不同货币政策框架、汇率制度和资本流动管理制度国家和地区的不同影响。“货币政策钉住货币供应量+宽松钉住汇率制度+资本账户可兑换”的国家其货币政策应兼顾本国物价水平稳定，同时加强宏观审慎政策对资产价格的逆周期调节，避免出现实体经济紧缩而金融繁荣的现象。“货币政策钉住通货膨胀+浮动汇率+资本账户可兑换”的国家应强化宏观审慎政策对资产价格的调节以应对金融资产泡沫。     

How Information Quality of Macro Aggregates Affects Sovereign Risk: An Empirical Investigation

This paper looks at the relationship between data quality of macro aggregates and the repayment ratio for debt payments due in a given year after a country defaults. We find empirical evidence that good information of macro aggregates reduces sovereign risk by enhancing the repayment ratio conditional on default, while having an insignificant effect on the default probability. The estimation accounts for selection bias by using a cross-country panel data of 69 developing countries for 1989–2002. Careful consideration is taken to establish information quality of macro aggregates as an exogenous institutional variable. Results are robust to controlling for various governance factors, income levels, and regional factors, etc. Linking information quality to creditors' bargaining power is more consistent with our findings than linking poor information quality to information asymmetry.     

SPINOFFS AND THE MARKET FOR IDEAS*

We present a theory of entry through spinoffs where workers generate ideas and possess private information concerning their quality. Because quality is privately observed, adverse selection implies that the market can only offer a price that reflects the average quality of ideas sold. Only workers with good ideas decide to spin off, whereas workers with mediocre ideas sell them. Existing firms pay a price for ideas sold in the market that implies zero expected profits. Hence, firms’ project selection is independent of firm size, which can lead to scale‐independent growth. This mechanism results in invariant firm‐size distributions that resemble the data.     

LINKAGES BETWEEN MACRO AND MICRO BUSINESS ACCOUNTS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT

The paper shows the relationship between microbusiness accounting based on double-entry bookkeeping and macroeconomic accounting based on quadruple-entry bookkeeping. In order for microaccounts to successfully aggregate into macroaccounts (i.e. preserve macro/micro linkages), quadruple-entry bookkeeping requires that the traditional double entries, recorded by transacting microbusiness units, be "consistent" with each other. In fact national economic accounting implicitly assumes that such consistency is maintained when national "aggregates" are uniquely extracted from national accounts and when national "identities" are claimed to hold true.
The main purpose of the paper is to show important examples where quadruple-entry consistency is not satisfied. These examples typically involve "complex" economic transactions between business units in which the legal form of the transactions do not necessarily represent their economic substance. When this occurs, different business units have genuinely divergent conceptions and perceptions with respect to their mutual economic transactions. Therefore, microbusiness accounts cannot be successfully aggregated into macroeconomic accounts without violating the integrity of microdecision making records.
The conclusion of the paper introduces a new theory called Perpetual Imbalanced Accounting. The theory shows that inconsistent (or imbalanced) economic accounting does tend to become consistent (or balanced) over sufficiently long time periods. Therefore, we must adopt a more dynamic view of national accounting if we desire to preserve successful macro/micro linkages. However, the problems of imbalanced macroaccounting and its statistical consequences cannot be entirely avoided no matter how long the accounting time period is taken. All of the above have important implications for the revision of the United Nations System of National Accounts.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

THE ROLE OF MICRODATA IN THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ACCOUNTS*

Microdata sets—samples of data relating to individual reporting units—can provide a valuable extension of the national economic accounts as they presently exist, making it possible to meet many of the criticisms being leveled at the accounts over their failure to include much nontransactions information that is essential to the evaluation of economic and social performance. To serve this purpose, however, the microdata sets must be integrated with the aggregate accounts, and with one another. A microdata sets relating to any given sector should add up (with appropriate weighting) to the economic constructs for that sector in the national accounts, and the microdata set for one sector should be articulated as appropriate with those of other sectors. This paper discusses techniques for constructing such microdata sets, including necessary adjustments of the macro accounts, techniques of alignment of microdata with the macro accounts and the creation and development of synthetic microdata sets. Synthetic matching and other techniques of merging data sets are discussed. The paper concludes with a consideration of the methodological implication of the integration of microdata and national accounts.     

宏观审慎政策、经济周期与银行风险承担*

本文基于中国227家商业银行2005－2016年非平衡面板数据，实证检验中国宏观审慎政策实施对于银行风险承担的影响。结果表明：宏观审慎政策增强会在一定程度上抑制银行风险承担，而且这种显著的负向关系并不随着银行风险代理变量、经营辐射范围以及是否有外资入股等条件的改变而发生变化。经济周期会对宏观审慎政策的有效性产生非对称性影响，即相比在经济上行时期，在经济下行时期的宏观审慎政策对银行风险承担的抑制作用更强且更为显著。就可能的影响机制而言，本文发现宏观审慎政策通过提高银行盈利能力，从而降低银行风险承担。       

BUSINESS FAILURES AND MACROECONOMIC FACTORS IN THE UK

We examine the interactions between business failures and macroeconomic aggregates, and specifically the accounts of policy-induced changes in the macroeconomy for the observed fluctuations of UK business failures in the period 1966–2003 using the vector error-correction model (VECM). The results demonstrate that macroeconomic aggregates, i.e., interest rate, credit, profits, inflation and business births, exert differential impacts on business failures both in the short run and in the long run. The study reveals that structural changes in the financial and real sectors during the examined period have made an impact on the way in which the macroeconomy affects business failures. In particular, business failures are increasingly reacting to monetary policy changes in the post-1980 period. Furthermore, the shocks to business failures can generate large fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates, suggesting the importance of corporate balance sheets in financial stability and economic growth. The paper's findings carry policy implications that are related to the survival of firms in distress and finance-driven business cycles.     

STICKY PRICES AND COSTLY CREDIT

We develop a theory of money and credit as competing payment instruments, then put it to work in applications. Agents use cash and credit because the former (latter) is subject to the inflation tax (transaction costs). Frictions that make the choice of payment method interesting also imply equilibrium price dispersion. We derive closed-form solutions for money demand, and show how to simultaneously account for the price-change facts, cash–credit shares in micro data, and money-interest correlations in macro data. The effects of inflation on welfare, price dispersion and markups are discussed, as are nonstationary equilibria with dynamics in the price distribution.     

TAKING THE ENVIRONMENT INTO ACCOUNT: THE NAMEA APPROACH

The National Accounting Matrix including Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) shows environmental burdens that are consistent with the economic figures in the national accounts. In the NAMEA, the existing national accounts matrix has been extended with accounts in physical units. On the basis of the expected contribution of each polluting substance to a particular environmental problem, emissions are converted to theme equivalents. This results in six summary environmental indicators that are directly comparable to the conventional economic aggregates. In addition, this meso-level information system can be used as the core data framework for integrated analyses and forecasts of economic and environmental changes.     

PRICES IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS FRAMEWORK: A CASE FOR COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS*

There are serious questions about the social costs and benefits of extending the role of prices in the national accounts. The costs may be greater, and the benefits smaller, than is commonly supposed. Many important uses of price (and other) data do not require that these data be organized within an elaborate—or even any—framework of national accounts. Also, the basic price (and other) data are still too often very scanty and rough. Would it not be better to devote available resources to improving these data rather than trying to force them, prematurely, into an elaborated set of national accounts?     

THE TREND IN RETIREMENT*

A model with leisure production and endogenous retirement is used to explain declining labor force participation rates of elderly males. The model is calibrated to cross‐sectional data on labor force participation rates of U.S. males by age, their drop in consumption, and leisure good expenditure share in 2000. Running the calibrated model for the period 1850–2000, a prediction of the evolution of the cross‐section is obtained. The model accounts for more than 87% of the increase in retirement of men over 65. The increase in retirement is driven by rising wages and falling prices of leisure goods.     

Choosing between Time and State Dependence: Micro Evidence on Firms' Price‐Reviewing Strategies

Because of recent findings based on survey data, it is now well known that firms differ from each other with respect to their price‐reviewing strategies. While some firms review their prices at fixed intervals of time, others prefer to perform price revisions in response to changes in economic conditions. Some theories have been suggested to explain this. However, empirical evidence on the relative importance of the factors that determine the different strategies of firms is virtually non‐existent. In this paper, we help to fill this gap by investigating the factors that explain why firms follow time‐dependent, state‐dependent, or both time‐ and state‐dependent price‐reviewing rules. We find that the strategies of firms vary with firm characteristics that have a bearing on the importance of information costs, with the variability of the optimal price, and with the sensitivity of profits to non‐optimal prices.     

房地产价格波动与投机行为--对中国14城市的实证研究

本文首先构建了适合中国的房地产投机理论模型,然后利用该模型对中国14个城市房地产价格波动与投机行为的关系进行实证研究.对14城市的时间序列数据研究结果表明各城市房地产投机水平都很高,个别城市更加突出.通过对14城市的截面数据分析,可以看出可支配收入对房地产价格没有显著影响,这些城市房地产价格的上升,主要是由投机来推动的,而且整体投机度非常高,说明房地产价格极大的偏离长期均衡值,市场出现了非理性繁荣,政府和产业部门应该采取适当的措施,积极引导消费者和投资者,为建立均衡的房地产市场提供良好的宏观和微观环境.