湖南省粮食生产时空格局演变及影响因素分析

新时代背景下,粮食生产稳定愈发关系到国家安全。以湖南省为对象,采用泰尔指数、标准差椭圆等方法从多个尺度对湖南省2009-2018年粮食生产时空格局进行了分析,并在此基础上探讨了影响其空间格局的驱动机制。得到以下结论：①近10年湖南省粮食产量总体呈下降的趋势,对国家粮食安全的贡献在下降;洞庭湖板块的粮食产量占比一直处于领先地位;②湖南省粮食生产区域差异总水平呈缓慢上升的趋势,其组内差异贡献度较高;③粮食生产的重心变化不大,粮食生产呈现“东南－西北”的空间分布格局;④耕地资源是影响粮食生产格局的最基本因素,而城市化等社会经济因子是其格局变化的重要扰动因素。并就结论提出相关建议,以期为湖南省粮食生产安全提供参考。     

财政支持粮食主产区农业发展现存问题与对策思考

<正>粮食主产区是确保我国粮食安全的核心和支撑,加入WTO 后,我国粮食主产区的农业发展面临巨大压力,由于种粮比较效益低机会成本高,农民种粮增产不增收,粮食生产连年滑坡,严重影响我国粮食安全。要想解决粮食主产区农民增收问题,确保国家粮食安全,必须各项影响因素通力配合、共同作用,其中,积极     

抓基地 保安全 抑通胀 切实推进国家大型商品粮基地建设

粮食是人类生存与发展的基础,粮食安全事关我国经济社会发展战略全局。我省是农业大省,是全国重要的粮食主产区,把粮食生产摆在更加突出的位置,抓好国家大型商品粮基地建设,对于增强粮食综合生产能力,保障国家粮食安全具有举足轻重的作用。     

中国农业科技创新效率及区域差异比较——基于粮食功能区视角

基于不同的粮食功能区,分别运用超效率DEA模型和Malmquist指数法对2001—2019年中国三大粮食功能区的农业科技创新效率及其变化进行测度和比较.结果表明:2001—2019年3个区域的农业科技创新效率均呈现波动上升的趋势;各粮食功能区之间农业科技创新效率差异明显,由低到高依次为主产区、产销平衡区和主销区;粮食主产区规模效率优势明显,主销区技术进步优势较强,而产销平衡区各分解因素的波动幅度最大.最后,从宏观统筹和优化各粮食功能区农业科技创新要素配置、合理推进各粮食功能区农业科技创新、提高农业科技创新效率的视角提出了对策建议.     

粮食主产区利益补偿机制创新研究——基于粮食安全问题的战略思考

党的二十大报告将全方位夯实粮食安全根基作为全面推进乡村振兴的重要任务和目标。当前我国粮食产量遭遇“天花板”制约，国际粮食市场的不稳定性倒逼国内必须提高粮食综合生产能力。然而，种粮成本上升和比较效益下降、纵向种粮补贴力度不足和横向产粮利益补偿缺位、主产区经济社会发展和粮食安全贡献失衡问题，导致种粮积极性下降。针对当前粮食安全蕴含的新风险，应当明确产销区粮食生产政治责任，完善粮食生产利益补偿体系，设立“粮食安全发展基金”，探索新型产销协作关系，在提高主产区粮食生产能力的基础上，实现种粮农户增收和主产区抓粮积极性提升的有机统一，有效确保国家粮食安全。     

中国粮食主产区空间格局变迁及影响因素探析

本文利用面板数据对影响中国粮食主产区空间格局变迁的因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:人均耕地面积、非农收入比重、经济效益比、粮食单产、复种指数、肉类产量所反映的自然资源禀赋、种粮比较效益、农业科技进步、社会需求变化都是影响中国粮食主产区空间格局变化的因素。其中人均耕地面积和非农收入比重的影响尤为突出。     

以最优手段促粮食稳定发展 粮食主产县基本都是农业大县、经济小县、财政穷县

正近几年实施的最低收购价和临时收储政策,对调动农民种粮积极性,促进粮食稳定发展发挥了重要作用。但是,也产生了严重的问题。如使粮食价格形成机制扭曲严重,政府粮食调控陷入"国家收储—进口增加—国家增储"的不利局面,财政负担不断加重。今后立足国内保障国家粮食安全,关键要靠粮食主产区,核心任务是保障粮食主产区粮食生产稳定发展。但是,粮食主产县基本都是农业大县、经济小县、财政穷县,工业化相对迟缓,城镇化更加滞后。在目前经济减速期、转型期,粮食主产区面临的矛盾和困难将更加     

“草蓦一水稻”两熟制高产高效种植技术

1、背景技术近几年,由于粮食生产比较效益低,许多地方尤其是粮食主产区,盲目缩粮扩经,来提高单位面积附加值,挤占粮食种植面积现象越来越普遍。这种放弃粮食生产而一味追求经济价值的做法,极有可能对国家粮食安全的造成严重威胁。确保国家粮食安全是我国农业、农村工作的首要任务。只有粮食的基础牢固了,才可能促进高效农业的发展,反过来,农业高效了又反过来为粮食安全夯实更坚固的     

2008年政府工作报告"三农"工作部署

三件事大力发展粮食生产,保障农产品供给粮食安全,关系经济社会发展全局,关系人民群众切身利益,丝毫不能放松粮食生产。要切实稳定粮食种植面积,提高单产水平。加大对粮食主产区和种粮农民的扶持力度,实施粮食战略     

新时期黑龙江省农民种粮增收困境之探析

粮食是一种具有战略意义的特殊商品,是国家安全战略的重要组成部分。当前,持续稳定提高粮食主产区种粮农民的收入水平是发展粮食生产、保障国家粮食安全的关键。文章以黑龙江省为例,分析了粮食主产区农民收入的增长特点,从成本和收入角度指出了主产区农民增收面临的困境,并提出了增加农民收入的对策。     

Do Poor Rural Households Produce Less Grain than Non-poor Rural Households

China＇s poor rural households produce substantially less grain compared with non-poor rural households. The present paper applies a decomposition approach and uses China＇s rural household survey data to investigate the causes of this grain output gap The paper first compares the grain output gap between poor and non-poor rural households, and then decomposes the gap into differences in yield and area sown, The results indicate that the gap in grain output mainly results from differences in the amount of inputs used in production. Differences in the number of labor days and the level of intermediate inputs account for 13.6 and 47.S percent of the gap, respectively. Poor rural households are also less efficient in their use of intermediate inputs, which contributes to 13.2percent of the gap. However, the efficiency of poor households＂ labor days reduces the gap by 7.2 percent, while agricultural physical capital, househoM head education and agricultural training have no substantial impact on the household grain output gap.     

黄渤海地区影响农业产出因素的分析——基于Panel Data 模型

通过对黄渤海地区两市五省2002年—2012年农业产出进行描述性分析,并选取农业总产值作为代表农业产出水平的指标,将各省农业在经济中的地位、联合收获机的年末拥有量、化肥施用量、播种面积、受灾面积以及农村劳动力文化水平作为影响农业总产值的因素,利用2002年—2012年的省际面板数据,采用stata进行计量分析,对影响黄渤海地区各省农业总产值的因素进行测度。研究结果表明,我国黄渤海地区农业总产值受生产条件的影响较大;第一产增加值占GDP的比重对农业总产值也有较显著的影响,而劳动力文化水平程度的影响并不是很显著。     

产业结构优化对碳排放的影响——基于空间计量经济模型

基于2003—2017年中国各省份面板数据,首先,运用空间固定效应杜宾模型,研究了产业结构优化对碳排放的影响。结果表明:产业结构优化降低了本省碳排放水平,但是通过分解产结构优化对碳排放的效应可知,虽然本省通过产业结构优化降低了本省碳排放,但却增加了邻近省份的碳排放量。其次,运用地理加权回归模型研究产业结构优化存在空间异质性对碳排放的影响。通过模型回归结果发现:发达省份的直接效应较小,而间接效应则较大,对于相对不发达的省份则相反。     

Land use change and environmental stress of wheat, rice and corn production in China

Grain self-sufficiency is one of the most important agricultural policy goals in China. With only modest imports, China has succeeded in feeding 22% of the world's population on only 7% of its land. However, a high price has been paid for this enormous achievement. Increase in grain yields, in particular in rice, as the main source of production growth, relied heavily on intensive use of physical inputs and increasing intensity of farming systems. Soil degradation, water scarcity, and severe pollution were among the consequences as well as declining efficiency of fertilizer application. Using county-level panel data from 1980 to 2003 and graphical (GIS-based) analysis, this paper first looks at the spatial change of the major grain production across regions over the past two decades, towards the northern and northeastern provinces. The analysis is complemented by using a random panel data model, which underscores the significant influence of land availability, degree of urbanization, and government policy on grain production. Finally, this analysis addresses environmental stress which includes both soil degradation and water shortage. The latter is already severe in many of the traditional grain producing areas, but will now become a bigger problem in the “new” grain producing areas, as these have traditionally much less water resources. Hence, while the economic rational of the “grain shift” towards the northern and northeastern regions is understandable, its sustainability is not guaranteed.     

Distortions at the Border; Integration Inland: Assessing the Effect of WTO Accession on China's Agriculture

The main goal of the paper is to address the impact of the WTO on China's agricultural sector. To accomplish this goal we address two sets of issues. First, we seek to provide measures of the distortions in China's agricultural sector at a time prior to the nation's accession to WTO. This is accomplished by estimating the nominal rates of protection (NPRs) of the agricultural sector's major commodities using a new methodology to account for grain quality differences within China and between China and the world market. Second, we seek to assess how well integrated China's markets are in order to understand which areas of the country and which segments of the farming population will likely be isolated from, or affected by, the changes that WTO will bring. We find that NPRs differ among commodities. Some of China's agricultural commodities are well above and others are well below world market prices. We also find that if increased imports or exports affect China's domestic price at the border, its own domestic markets are mostly integrated so that price shifts in one area will affect prices in most of the rest of China. Our analysis finds, however, that a number of policy and structural factors limit the overall size of the shock.     

小农的种粮逻辑——40年来中国农业种植结构的转变与未来策略

基于已有文献对中国粮食安全问题的质疑与担忧,作者回顾了改革开放40年以来我国农业种植结构调整从"去粮化"到"趋粮化"的历史性转变。文章认为,2003年以来中国粮食长期且连续的增长,并非由外生的经济因素直接激发,亦非农业税减免和农业补贴政策的直接诱导,而是由农户在要素流动与卷入农业分工的过程中所内生的自我执行机制来决定的。理论与实证研究表明,中国小农的种粮逻辑是通过要素配置、地权预期、分工深化三个方面来共同表达的。小规模分散化的农业家庭经营格局并不构成中国粮食安全的阻碍,相反,却内含着重要的组织优势与可动员潜力。文章进一步讨论了保障中国粮食安全的基本策略与政策选择。     

Does Security of Land Operational Rights Matter for the Improvement of Agricultural Production Efficiency under the Collective Ownership in China?

Under the “separation of three rights” policy, the impact of security of land operational rights on agricultural production efficiency has attracted much attention in recent years. Data envelopment analysis and mediation effect analysis were applied to 888 family farms run by new‐type agricultural operators from Songjiang to identify the mechanism of the effect of land operational rights security on agricultural production efficiency through long‐term investment. The results show that greater security of land operational rights generally increased agricultural production efficiency. Approximately 37.94 percent of the impact could be explained by long‐term investment. The results also indicate that significant heterogeneity exists in the effect of land operational rights security on agricultural production efficiency at various levels of the family farms’ efficiency distributions. It is suggested that government should legalize land operational rights and give them a status equal to those of households’ contractual rights and land ownership rights in China's future land tenure reform.     

Understanding China's grain procurement policy from a perspective of optimization

This paper develops an optimization model to analyze the policy formulation under China's dual-track grain procurement system. By capturing the redistribution objective and the urban food security objective in a political preference function, we provide some rigorous explanations of three important aspects of China's grain policies: the choice of the dual-track procurement system over the lump-sum tax scheme as a means of extracting economic surpluses from the grain sector; the suppression of the procurement price to its minimum until the mid-1990s; and the switch from taxing to subsidizing grain production at end-1996. Our findings underscore the paramount importance of the urban food security objective behind the evolution of China's grain procurement policy, including the liberalization of the system in the 2000s.     

产业关联视角下农产品加工业集聚对农业现代化的影响分析

农产品加工业的集聚是推动农业现代化重要动力来源。基于2012 年—2020 年中国各省份的面板数据,利用空间杜宾模型检验农产品加工业集聚对农业现代化水平的影响。研究表明：总体上,农产品加工业集聚对农业现代化具有显著的正向影响,但存在区域异质性;本地区农产品加工业集聚能显著带动邻近省份的农业现代化水平,具有正向空间溢出效应;并且,当农产品加工业与本地农业强产业关联时,农产品加工业集聚才能显著促进农业现代化水平提升。