A multiple criteria methodology for priority based portfolio selection

This paper presents a new methodology combining multiple criteria sorting or ranking methods with a project portfolio selection procedure. The multicriteria method permits the comparison of projects in terms of their priority based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. Then, a feasible set of projects, i.e. a portfolio, is selected according to the priority defined by the multiple criteria method and satisfying a set of resources and logical constraints. The proposed portfolio selection methodology is called Priority Based Portfolio Selection (PBPS) and can be applied in different contexts. We present an application in the urban planning domain where our approach allows us to select a set of urban projects based on their priority, budgetary constraints, and urban policy requirements. Given the increasing interest of historical cities to reuse their cultural heritage, we applied and tested our methodology in this context. In particular, we show how the methodology can support the prioritization of the interventions on buildings with some historical value in the historic city center of Naples (Italy), taking into account several points of view.     

Selecting balanced portfolios of R&D projects with interdependencies: A Cross-Entropy based methodology

The intensive growth of technology makes firms rely on research and development (R&D) activities in order to adapt to technology changes in an ever-changing and uncertain environment. Due to R&D budget constraints and limited resources, firms are often forced to select a subset of all candidate projects by means of project portfolio selection techniques mitigating the corresponding risks and enhancing the overall value of portfolio. Projects' interdependencies and types were rarely considered in existing models of R&D portfolio selection that may result in selecting wrong projects. This flaw hinders the projects alignment with corporate objectives and strategy and leads to excessive risk and missing the promised values. In this paper, a balanced set of R&D project evaluation criteria was proposed. Next, to construct R&D project portfolio, a 0–1 nonlinear mathematical programming method for balancing portfolio values and risks was proposed, in which research projects' interdependencies, types and other constraints were all considered. Finally, a Cross-Entropy algorithm was developed to solve the proposed model and results were reported. The algorithm proved to be very effective in terms of solution quality and computational time. The proposed algorithm especially suits large scale instances while exact approaches are doomed to fail.     

Hybrid decision model for information project selection

Information project selection is an important and recurring activity in many organizations. Establishing a systematic project selection model thus is important for organizations. However, information system project selection is made difficult by the need to consider numerous quantitative and qualitative factors, such as business goals, benefits, project risks and limitations in available resources. This study proposes a hybrid measurement model for evaluating the overall effects of information projects. The selection model generates critical, quantitative and qualitative indicators to help managers realize the advantages/disadvantages of operational conditions. This hybrid selection model not only accelerates project evaluation and selection, but also helps organizations optimize project selection and thus achieve sustainable development.     

Impact assessment based sectoral balancing in public R&D project portfolio selection

Government funding agencies spend significant amounts of R&D funds through funding programs. While allocating funds among sectors or scientific disciplines, the Decision Maker (DM) wants to maximize the total impact by supporting R&D activities in those sectors with higher scientific, social and economic return. On the other hand, the DM wants to balance the funding budget over sectors or disciplines. In this study, we incorporate the results of “sectoral impact assessments” into the public R&D project portfolio selection (RDPPS) problem. We develop a two-stage model. In the first stage, we make sectoral budget allocation decisions to maximize the total impact of the budget while ensuring a relative balance among sectors. In the second stage, we maximize the total score of supported projects under allocated sectoral budgets. We illustrate the proposed approach on an example problem. We show the value of the proposed approach by comparing our results with alternative policy options.     

Application and project portfolio valuation using enterprise architecture and business requirements modelling

This article describes an architecture-based approach to IT valuation. This approach offers organisations an instrument to valuate their application and project portfolios and to make well-balanced decisions about IT investments. The value of a software application is assessed in terms of its contribution to a selection of business goals. Based on such assessments, the value of different applications can be compared, and requirements for innovation, development, maintenance and phasing out can be identified. IT projects are proposed to realise the requirements. The value of each project is assessed in terms of the value it adds to one or more applications. This value can be obtained by relating the ‘as-is’ application portfolio to the ‘to-be’ portfolio that is being proposed by the project portfolio. In this way, projects can be ranked according to their added value, given a certain selection of business goals. The approach uses ArchiMate to model the relationship between software applications, business processes, services and products. In addition, two language extensions are used to model the relationship of these elements to business goals and requirements and to projects and project portfolios. The approach is illustrated using the portfolio method of Bedell and has been implemented in BiZZdesign Architect.     

高速公路补充预算定额原始数据异常值的改进格拉布斯法应用研究

编制高速公路补充预算定额需要大量的观察测量,这些观测数据是预算定额定量及定性的记录,是科学研究预算定额的重要基础,因此其质量的好坏直接关系到定额最终成果的正确性和科学性。国际上常推荐采用格拉布斯(Grubbs)准则法,本文在高速公路补充预算定额的研究中采用改进型格拉布斯准则法,主要探讨改进型格拉布斯准则法以及如何借助于excel工具简化计算该法。     

The number of securities giving the maximum return in the presence of transaction costs

An essential element of any realistic investment portfolio selection is the consideration of transaction costs. Our purpose, in this paper, is to determine the maximum return and the corresponding number of securities to buy giving such return, whenever practical constraints features related to budget, buy-in thresholds, and transaction costs are taken into consideration. Dealing with the portfolio selection and optimization problem in the point of view of individual investors, we will arrive to get an analytic result, leading to a new and simple alternative solution to heuristic algorithms. Moreover, this result can be considered as another approach to integer optimization.     

A Comprehensive Framework for Sustainable Project Portfolio Selection Based on Structural Equation Modeling

Project selection problems are inherently complex problems with multiple and often conflicting objectives. The complexity of project selection problems is due to the high number of projects from which a subset (portfolio) has to be chosen. Various analytical methods, ranging from the simple weighted sum to complex mathematical programming have been proposed to solving these problems. We propose an integrated approach for strategic and sustainable project portfolio selection, which is composed of two distinct but interrelated modules. In the first module, we use the strategic planning and sustainability concepts to select a set of promising projects. In the second module, we use a project portfolio selection procedure to choose among the promising projects identified in the first module. A structural equation model is used to analyze and explain the relationships among different factors in the proposed framework. More specifically, we investigate the effects of: (1) strategic level performance on sustainability, post‐implementation, and overall performance; (2) implementation performance on post‐implementation and overall performance; (3) portfolio selection performance on implementation and overall performance; and (4) post‐implementation performance on overall performance. A case study in investment banking is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms.     

Project portfolio control and portfolio management performance in different contexts

This article investigates the nature and relationship of project portfolio control techniques and portfolio management performance, and how this relationship is moderated by situational idiosyncrasies of internal and external dynamics, industries, governance types, and geographic location. A worldwide questionnaire with 242 responses was used, of which 136 high‐performing responses were filtered out for quantitative analysis of best practices. Three portfolio control factors were identified: portfolio selection, portfolio reporting, and decision‐making style. Two measures for portfolio management performance were identified: achievement of desired portfolio results and achievement of project and program purpose. The results indicate that different portfolio control mechanisms are associated with different performance measures. A contingency model was developed, including moderating effects by contextual variables.     

A novel LASSO – TLBO – SVR hybrid model for an efficient portfolio construction

In this study a LASSO – TLBO – SVR hybrid model is used for portfolio construction. Relevant economic parameters are determined and used for stock selection. Along with stock selection, weights for the stocks are obtained by solving a portfolio optimization problem using three methods: GRG Nonlinear, Evolutionary method based on Genetic Algorithm, and Equal weight method. The portfolio return in the proposed model is compared with the return of the Indian market portfolio (NSE and BSE). It is observed that the proposed model outperforms the market portfolio.     

Fractal statistical measure and portfolio model optimization under power-law distribution

An effective portfolio selection model is constructed on the premise of measuring accurately the risk and return on assets. According to the reality that the tail of returns on assets obey power-law distribution, this paper firstly builds two fractal statistical measures, fractal expectation and fractal variance, to measure the asset returns and risks, inspired by the method of measuring curve length in the fractal theory. Then, by incorporating the fractal statistical measure into the return-risk criterion, a portfolio selection model based on fractal statistical measure is established, namely the fractal portfolio selection model, and the closed-form solution of the model is given. Finally, through empirical analysis we find that the fractal portfolio selection model is effective and can improve investment performance.     

关于工程项目预算审查方法研究

工程项目预算审查是合理确定工程造价的必要程序及重要手段。本文阐述了工程项目预算审查的意义,论述了工程项目预算审查的内容和步骤,列举了工程项目预算审查的方法,最后提出了提高工程项目预算审查质量的措施。通过对工程项目预算审查方法的研究,使工程造价得到合理的确定、得到有效的控制,最终使工程项目管理目标得以实现。     

高速公路项目PPP模式的物有所值决策研究

为大力发展PPP模式在高速公路项目领域的应用,采用物有所值评价方法分析PPP模式在该类项目中是否适用是决策阶段不可或缺的部分。通过实地项目调研及文献研究,归纳总结高速公路PPP项目的政府与社会资本合作模式,确立相应的物有所值定性评价指标体系,采用模糊综合评价法进行定性评价,结合定性评价和定量评价论证高速公路PPP项目的可行性,选取ZN高速公路PPP项目为案例论证该项目的物有所值,为我国PPP项目建设的物有所值评价提供一定借鉴意义。     

基于云模型的动态物流过程知识表示

以提高物流过程管理实时优化调度的智能性和科学性为突破口,引入云模型和知识工程的知识表示理论,提出一种基于云模型的物流过程的知识表示法。通过云模型的期望值、熵和超熵三个数字特征有效地表达定性概念,并实现定性和定量的不确定转换,从而描述具有动态特点和一定非确定性的物流过程知识。     

基于实物期权的项目投资决策方法

由于受不确定性的影响,传统的项目投资决策方法已不能全面衡量一个项目的价值,实物期权方法是一种能定性和定量考察这些不确定性因素的方法。本文采用实物期权理论对项目的灵活性价值定量计算,并结合EXCEL对项目各项指标进行敏感性分析,确定对期权价值的影响较大的因素,以便于在实际应用时尤其要关注敏感性因素值的确定与变化,以帮助决策者抓住重点,做出科学的决策。     

Bayesian data augmentation methods for the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research findings

The possible utility of Bayesian methods for the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research has been repeatedly suggested but insufficiently investigated. In this project, we developed and used a Bayesian method for synthesis, with the goal of identifying factors that influence adherence to HIV medication regimens. We investigated the effect of 10 factors on adherence. Recognizing that not all factors were examined in all studies, we considered standard methods for dealing with missing data and chose a Bayesian data augmentation method. We were able to summarize, rank, and compare the effects of each of the 10 factors on medication adherence. This is a promising methodological development in the synthesis of qualitative and quantitative research.     

基于层次分析法的风险投资项目评价与决策

层次分析法应用多目标评价决策，是一种十分有效的定性分析与定量分析有机结合的方法，对于风险投资项目而言，其评价决策也是一个多目标，多层次，结构复杂，因素众多的大系统，因而运用层次分析法进行此类项目的评价与决策是合适的，文中对如何应用层次分析法分析风险投资项目的评价决策进行了说明与探讨。     

The selection of supply chain management projects: A case study approach

Organizations undertake strategic supply chain initiatives through project implementation. However, selecting the right supply chain projects can be difficult due to high levels of organizational risk and technical complexity. Although the literature is rich in quantitative and qualitative methods for project management, prior research into best management practices specific to supply chain management (SCM) project selection is limited. This paper examines the methods used in evaluating and selecting SCM projects used by the management at three publically held multi-national organizations. The primary objective of this research is to identify a set of generalizable good practices in the selection and evaluation of SCM projects. Nine useful business practices in SCM project selection have been identified based on cross-case comparisons and a close examination of the literature. Eight practices had been previously identified, but were scattered throughout the literature on ERP, IT management, and R&D management. A new practice calls for the consideration of supply chain partners’ return-on-investment (ROI) in the project selection process. Highest preference should be given to win-win projects for the organization and its partner(s). The practices identified here sho`uld provide the foundation of practical guidelines that can be used during the planning stage of SCM projects. This paper reduces the knowledge gap in SCM project management by analyzing organizations with significant supply chain experience and synthesizing these results with the current related literature.     

建筑工程造价预结算审核工作要点研究

建筑工程造价的预结算审核主要包括工程量的审核、套用单价的审核和计取费用的审核,常见的工程造价预结算审核方法有:全面审核法、重点审核法、对比审核法、分组计算审核法和筛选法,但是无论采用哪种审核方法,都必须做到:严格按照合同进行审核;重视工程变更的审核;积极运用计算机系统辅助建筑工程造价的预结算审核和努力提高建筑工程造价预结算审核人员的素质。     

基于多粒度二元语义的供应商选择方法

供应商选择是一个多属性决策问题,既包括定性的因素也包括定量的因素。把成本、质量、服务水平、供应商的能力和外部因素作为供应商选择的标准,并将基于多粒度二元语义信息处理的群决策方法应用于供应商的选择,给出了基于二元语义信息处理的群决策的步骤,最后给出了一个算例。