基于蒙特卡罗法的生态住宅全生命周期成本模拟研究

根据全生命周期成本理论和上海市统计数据,分析维修成本、运营成本等指标的变化趋势和概率分布,在估计生态住宅节能率分布的基础上,模拟计算生态住宅和非生态住宅全生命周期成本,得到成本的期望和置信区间。最后,计算生态住宅的平均建筑节能投资回收期,并从经济角度分析生态住宅是否真的节约成本,带来效益,为购房者及开发商提供选择与判断的依据。     

沥青路面平整度控制措施研究

路面平整度是衡量高等级公路使用性能的一项重要指标。通过控制路基施工质量和基层平整度、处理好施工接缝和桥梁伸缩缝、改善摊铺和碾压等施工工艺、控制施工材料质量等措施来提高沥青路面的初始平整度;开放交通后在道路管理方面,通过加强超载车辆的控制、提高道路养护水平等,来减缓沥青路面平整度的衰减。以此来提高沥青路面的平整度,解决行车颠簸问题、提高行车的速度。     

A new energy model to capture the behavior of energy price processes

Owing to the vague fluctuation of energy prices from time to time, a new energy model, which considers both the mean-reverting behavior and the long memory property, is proposed in this paper. Since the problem of estimating parameters, in discrete time for this model, plays a central role in forecast inference, the problem of estimating the unknown parameters has been dealt with for the fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process observed discretely. The asymptotic properties of these estimates are also provided. The numerical simulation results confirm the theoretical analysis and show that our method is effective. To show how to apply our approach in realistic contexts, an empirical study of energy in China, namely Daqing crude oil, is presented. The empirical results seem reasonable when compared to the real data.