Exploring outward FDI and the choice of destination: evidence from Swedish firm-level data

Using Swedish firm-level data on all firms and their affiliates abroad, we investigate what observable firm and country characteristics affect the size of an affiliate in a particular destination. We employ the richness of the data to investigate the importance of destination country factors in explaining firm outward FDI activities and distinguish between the factors that affect such activities in manufacturing versus services firms as well as vertical versus horizontal investments. Our results lend support to existing theories of multinational activity of manufacturing but not services firms. We also find observable differences between vertical and horizontal manufacturing firms that are not always explained by theory.     

Finance constraints and technology spillovers from foreign to domestic firms

Scholars have suggested that externalities such as technology spillovers to domestic firms from the entry and presence of foreign firms – i.e., Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) spillovers – arise only when domestic firms possess adequate absorptive capacity. But they have also maintained a predominantly technological focus in their conceptualization of absorptive capacity, treating it mostly as a function of domestic firms' technological investments. Yet, several anecdotes point to finance constraints being equally important hurdles to absorbing technology. Given the comparatively scant attention to finance constraints in the FDI spillover literature, we present theoretical arguments and a counterfactual simulation for how finance constraints influence firms' realization of FDI spillovers. In the process, we identify two mechanisms underlying why firms facing high finance constraints experience lower FDI spillovers. (125 words).     

Analyzing the effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on FDI in a CGE framework with firm heterogeneity

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement (FTA) that is currently under negotiation among China and 15 other Asian countries. It is one of several potential mega-regional FTAs in the Asia-Pacific region. In this paper we investigate the potential effect of RCEP on foreign direct investment (FDI) with a focus on China using an innovative computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model is built on the theory of firm heterogeneity extended to FDI. The framework is able to capture FDI increases along both the intensive and extensive margins. Liberalization under RCEP is simulated as impacting on FDI both directly through FDI liberalization and indirectly through trade liberalization. Our simulation results suggest that RCEP would encourage significant increases in FDI to China through both these pathways. While competition from imports drives out the least productive foreign owned firms, export expansion of firms using FDI will lead to an overall increase in foreign investment. In addition, the facilitation of trade in intermediate goods tends to promote vertical FDI. The direct FDI effect from investment liberalization will evidently promote FDI from partners. Projected economic gains to China from RCEP are in the range of US$103–214 billion, or 1.1–2.2% of GDP.     

Determinants of Chinese direct investments in the European Union

This article analyses the determinants of Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) activities in the European Union (EU). Evidence is based on panel Poisson models drawing on two investment monitors at the individual project level. Greenfield investments (GI) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are distinguished. The findings indicate that market size and bilateral trade are the main factors for Chinese investment in the EU. In contrast, business-friendly institutions do not foster FDI. Probably, Chinese investors are risk averse, and prefer regions with less competitive markets. The striking difference between GIs and M&As is related to unit labour costs. Higher costs make the host country less attractive for the establishment of new firms, but do not affect the involvement in existing firms. The sectoral dispersion of Chinese FDI in the EU did not change much since the global financial crisis. Most relevant shifts have occurred in research and development (R&D), where low-income EU countries have become increasingly attractive.     

Export Spillovers of FDI on China's Domestic Firms

This paper examines the horizontal and vertical export spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) on China's manufacturing domestic firms by using firm‐level census data over the period of 2000–03. Based on a Heckman two‐step procedure combining first differencing and instrumental variable regression techniques, it is found that FDI has had a positive impact on the export value of domestic firms mainly through backward technology spillovers and a positive impact on the export‐to‐sales ratio of domestic firms through horizontal export‐related information spillovers. After decomposing FDI by different market orientation and domestic firms by different ownership, the paper finds that the positive impact on domestic firms' export values is mainly from the nonexporting and the exporting foreign‐invested enterprises while the positive impact on domestic firms' export‐to‐sales ratios is mainly from the high‐exporting foreign‐invested enterprises. Both types of export spillovers are mainly diffused to domestic non‐state‐owned enterprises.     

Does FDI Facilitate Domestic Entry? Evidence from the Czech Republic

This paper analyzes the impact of FDI on domestic firm entry and firm size distributions in the Czech Republic during 1994–2000. We find that larger foreign presence stimulates the entry of domestic firms within the same industry, indicating the existence of positive horizontal spillovers from FDI. We also find evidence of significant vertical entry spillovers—FDI in downstream (upstream) industries initiates entry in upstream (downstream) sectors. Our results also show that entry spillovers through vertical linkages are stronger than horizontal spillovers and that while service industries benefit from both horizontal and vertical spillovers, manufacturing industries do not experience significant positive entry spillovers of any kind. We also find that country of origin of FDI matters—horizontal spillovers are driven by FDI from the EU countries. The right skewness of the firm size distributions in industries without FDI further emphasizes an important role of FDI presence for overall industry dynamics.     

Foreign investment regulation and firm productivity: Granular evidence from Indonesia

When regulating foreign direct investment (FDI), countries often face a trade-off between pursuing national policy interests and suffering efficiency losses due to FDI restrictions. We demonstrate the presence of this trade-off in the case of a protectionist FDI policy in Indonesia. Using a yearly census of Indonesian manufacturing firms from 2000 to 2015, we link product-level changes in binding FDI regulation due to major regulatory tightening to changes in firm-level productivity. Controlling for an extensive set of fixed effects as well as potential political economy drivers of regulation, we show that a tightening of the regulatory environment was successful in reducing foreign capital reliance among regulated firms, and led to increases in FDI among non-regulated firms producing the same product. Despite compensating increases in domestic capital, regulated firms experienced relative productivity losses. This points towards either a less efficient allocation of domestic capital or a general inferiority of domestic capital as compared to foreign investments.     

TARIFF JUMPING FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DECISION IN A QUALITY‐DIFFERENTIATED MARKET

Using a product differentiation model, this paper discusses the issue of transnational firms evading tariffs and investing directly in a host country (through foreign direct investment (FDI)). Where product quality is differentiated between foreign and host country firms and assuming a firm's quality requirement is a long‐term strategy and is not affected by a foreign firm's trade decision, we obtain the following findings. First, whether or not a host country firm produces high or low quality products, raising the quality requirement for foreign products will increase the possibility of a foreign firm choosing FDI instead of exporting a product to the host country. Second, raising the quality requirement for domestic products will lower the possibility of foreign firms choosing FDI without regard to the product's quality. Finally, given a competitor in the host country, in FDI, a foreign high‐quality product‐producing firm has an advantage over a low‐quality product‐producing firm. We also find that even when firms' quality decisions are affected by a foreign firm's trade decision, most of the above results will still hold.     

Trade costs and foreign direct investment

This paper focuses on an apparent conflict between the theory of foreign direct investment (FDI) and recent trends in the globalized world. The bulk of FDI is horizontal rather than vertical, and standard theory predicts that horizontal FDI is discouraged when trade costs fall. This seems to conflict with the experience of the 1990s, when trade liberalisation and technological change led to dramatic reductions in trade costs yet FDI grew much faster than trade. Two possible resolutions to this paradox are explored. First, horizontal FDI in trading blocs is encouraged by intra-bloc trade liberalisation, because foreign firms establish plants in one country as export platforms to serve the bloc as a whole. Second, cross-border mergers, quantitatively more important than greenfield FDI, are encouraged rather than discouraged by falling trade costs.     

DOES FOREIGN INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS PROTECTION AFFECT US EXPORTS AND FDI?

Several previous studies have examined the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPR) protection, exports, and FDI independently. However, very few prior analyses jointly examined the linkages between IPR protection and multiple modes of international transactions. This paper investigates how foreign IPR protection affects how US firms jointly serve overseas markets through exports and FDI. Using both static pooled regressions and a dynamic panel GMM estimator on a panel data of 53 countries, we examine whether stronger foreign IPR protection stimulates US international transactions. The empirical results suggest that foreign countries that strengthen their IPR protection, especially those with strong imitative ability, can attract more international transactions from the USA.     

Discriminating Among Alternative Theories of the Multinational Enterprise

Recent theoretical developments have incorporated endogenous multinational firms into the general–equilibrium model of trade. One simple taxonomy separates the theory into "vertical" models, in which firms geographically separate activities by stages of production, and "horizontal" models, in which multiplant firms duplicate roughly the same activities in many countries. The authors nest a horizontal and a vertical model within a hybrid (unrestricted) "knowledge–capital model" and estimate the specifications with data on US foreign direct investment activity. In the nested econometric tests, the data sample cannot distinguish statistically between the unrestricted model and the restricted horizontal model, indicating that the latter captures virtually all of the determinants of FDI. The tests overwhelmingly reject the vertical model.     

Impact of firm heterogeneity on direct and spillover effects of FDI: Micro-evidence from ten transition countries

This paper presents a comparative study of the importance of direct technology transfer and spillovers through FDI on a set of 10 transition countries, using a common methodology and appropriate methods to account for selection and simultaneity correction. This paper considers by far the largest firm level dataset (more than 90,000 firms) used by any study on the spillover effects of FDI. The main novelty of the paper is the explicit control for various sources of firm heterogeneity when accounting for different effects of FDI on firm performance. This work shows that the heterogeneity of firms in terms of absorptive capacity, size, productivity and technology levels affect the results. Controlling for these variables leads to some interesting results, which contrast with the previous empirical work in the field. We find that horizontal spillovers have become increasingly important over the last decade, and they may even become more important than vertical spillovers. Positive horizontal spillovers are equally distributed across size classes of firms, while negative horizontal spillovers seem to be more likely to accrue to smaller firms. Moreover, positive horizontal spillovers seem more likely to be present in medium or high productivity firms with higher absorptive capacities, while negative horizontal spillovers are more likely to affect low to medium productivity firms. These findings suggest that both direct effects from foreign ownership as well as the spillovers from foreign firms substantially depend on the absorptive capacity and productivity level of individual firms. In addition, these results show that foreign presence may also affect smaller firms to a larger extent than larger firms, but this impact may be in either direction.     

FDI的水平与垂直溢出效应——以长三角二省一市为例

利用2000—2007年长三角地区两省一市27个制造业细分行业的面板数据,实证检验了FDI对内资企业的水平溢出、后向溢出和前向溢出效应,分别就FDI对长三角地区整体和江苏、浙江和上海不同地理单元的27个制造业整体及不同类型组(高、中、低技术产业组)的溢出效应进行实证检验。结果显示,长三角地区、江苏、浙江和上海的FDI都对内资企业具有正的后向溢出效应和负的前向溢出效应,江苏和浙江的FDI的水平溢出效应为正,上海的FDI的水平溢出效应为负。     

DECISION TO INVEST ABROAD: THE CASE OF SOUTH KOREAN MULTINATIONALS

Recent firm‐based empirical studies examine whether firms serving foreign markets either through exports or foreign direct investment (FDI) are more efficient than their domestically‐oriented counterparts. The purpose of the present paper is to study the link between performance of multinational firms and the choice to participate in foreign investment. In so doing, this paper explicitly differentiates exports and FDI decisions. Using firm‐level data for large South Korean manufacturing firms, I provide evidence that the premium for FDI is huge compared to exports, and that good firms undertake FDI. Studying performance across firms, I find that firms that engage in FDI outperform other firms in the future in all possible dimensions; they are larger, pay higher wages, and are also more productive. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that good firms self‐select to engage in FDI. I also find clear evidence that past FDI experience has a strong positive effect on the probability of current investment abroad. This implies that the sunk cost involved in FDI plays a role in current decisions to undertake FDI.     

中国FDI区位分布的空间效应研究

目前关于我国FDI区位选择因素的大部分实证研究都是建立在双边框架内,考虑第三方效应并从城市角度进行的研究还少有涉及。本文在新近发展起来的"第三国效应"理论基础上,运用空间面板计量方法,对1985—2005年期间我国30个省市区的154个地级及以上城市的FDI区位分布的空间效应进行检验。发现全样本154个城市的FDI之间存在显著的空间效应,周边城市的FDI增量可以增加某城市的FDI流入量,周边城市的市场规模越大某城市的FDI流入越多,各城市的FDI流入也受到周边城市FDI不可测因素的影响。对三大地区内部、三大地区之间及长、珠三角与三大地区之间等不同子样本的FDI空间效应的检验,发现东、中、西部地区FDI的主导类型分别为集聚垂直复合型、受限的集聚垂直复合型和水平型。     

论国内金融市场在“外商直接投资和经济增长”中的传导渠道

21世纪以来有关外商直接投资(FDI)文献着重论述了国内金融市场在“FDI和经济增长”中的作用,弥补了以往FDI文献的空白。在此基础上,文章认为,国内金融市场是通过资本形成、就业增加、技术实现和投资效率提高等渠道诱使FDI促进经济增长的。     

Regional foreign direct investment and technology spillover: evidence across different clusters in India

This paper examines whether there exist productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) to domestic firms at the regional level, using firm-level panel dataset covering 22 manufacturing industries in India from 2000 to 2012. In order to estimate the productivity spillovers from FDI at the regional level, we select 10 industrial clusters across 4 regions in India. In estimating productivity, we control for a possible simultaneity bias by using semi-parametric estimation techniques. We find that local firms benefit from horizontal and vertical FDI, but the benefits from the latter are found to be substantially stronger. The absorptive capacity of domestic firms is highly relevant to harvest the spilled technology from foreign-owned firms. Furthermore, we find that domestic firms belonging to high-technology industries benefit more from FDI at the regional level. We also find that market concentration is a crucial conduit for firm innovation, technological upgradation, and having a direct effect on local firm total factor productivity.     

对中国国际贸易与FDI相互关系的重新检验

This paper studies the long-term relationship between FDI and imports and exports through evidence from China by using cointegration technology, and the Granger causality test shows that FDI had an obvious effect on imports and exports activities of foreign firms, and in the meantime, the imports and exports of foreign firms greatly promoted FDI. However, there is not a stable equilibrium between FDI and international trade in the long run for all firms in China. This paper provides some explanations for the possible reasons that cause the above difference in estimation results from the perspectives of both location and industry factors.      

Foreign Capital,Spillovers and Export Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Indian IT Firms

The role of foreign capital inflow, foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI), on export behavior of both recipients and non‐recipient competing firms in the same sector often guides economic development policy. By using panel data of Indian IT firms over 2000–2006, we show that FDI reduces the sunk costs of entering foreign markets and therefore positively effects both the decision to export and the export propensity of recipient firms. Foreign portfolio investment has no effect on the decision to export, but it does marginally increase the volume of exports. Further, these positive FDI and FPI recipient effects do not spill‐over to non‐recipients.     

INTERNATIONALIZATION STRATEGIES IN OLIGOPOLY WITH HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS

This paper examines the foreign direct investment (FDI) versus exports decision of foreign oligopolistic firms under cost heterogeneity. An additional motivation for firms to invest abroad is the technological sourcing via spillovers, which flow from the host more efficient firm to foreign less advantaged firms. For intermediate values of the set‐up costs associated with FDI entry, it is shown that foreign firms choose opposite entry strategies. An equilibrium where the less efficient foreign firm exports whereas the more efficient invests is more likely to happen when foreign firms become more heterogeneous, the larger the trade costs and not too big oligopolistic profitability. Interestingly, the opposite may also be an equilibrium thus finding that the more efficient firm does not choose to invest, a result that emphasizes the relevance of the strategic setting under consideration. The latter result identifies a market failure since welfare in the host market is higher when both firms undertake FDI; a finding that calls attention to how appropriate are host government policies towards internationalization strategies.