Discursive Contestation on Technological Innovation and the Institutional Design of the UNFCCC in the New Climate Change Regime

ABSTRACT

Under the new climate change regime ushered in by the 2015 Paris Agreement, technology development and transfer have emerged as essential means of global action for climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, technological innovation has appeared as a leading component to be accelerated, encouraged, and enabled under the Paris Agreement. However, while making the rule book to implement the Paris Agreement, a clash has occurred between developed and developing countries over the meaning of technological innovation and the intervening policies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to support innovation in developing countries. By exploring rule-making processes and expert-meetings under the UNFCCC, this paper examines how this discursive contestation has progressed in relation to the meaning of technological innovation and the creation of an appropriate institutional design to support developing countries’ achievement of technological innovation. The analysis is based on the theoretical framework of discursive contestation between the two discourses of de-regulatory ecological modernisation and green governmentality with right-to-development. This research concludes by positing some policy implications.     

Political Economy of International Policy on the Transfer of Environmentally Sound Technologies in Global Climate Change Regime

Global governance on climate change has embraced the transfer of environmentally sound technologies as a crucial means of implementation to meet mitigation and adaptation. During the negotiation toward the Paris Agreement that replaced the Kyoto Protocol under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the negotiation on technology development and transfer experienced contestation between developed and developing countries over policy direction and options. Under this context, why, in which policy options, and how developed and developing countries have clashed have not been fully explored yet in the issue area of climate change. This paper attempts to unpack the negotiations over technology development and transfer as a part of the Paris Agreement by three dimensions of marketisation, privatisation, and de-regulatory approach on the theoretical ground of discursive contestation between neo-liberalism and structuralism. This research, revealing the ground and the range of stretched contestant policy options, will provide a means to discern whether policies and modalities to be adopted to implement the Paris Agreement are skewed toward developed countries or developing countries.     

Sukuk vs. conventional bonds: A stock market perspective

The last decade witnessed a wide expansion of Islamic finance in Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian countries. Sukuk issues, which are Islamic financial instruments structured to replicate the cash flows of conventional bonds, have notably proliferated, fuelling the debate on the similarity between Islamic and conventional finance. Using an event study methodology on a sample of Malaysian listed companies, we investigate whether stock market investors react differently to the announcements of sukuk and conventional bond issues. We find that the stock market is neutral to announcements of conventional bond issues, but it reacts negatively to announcements of sukuk issues. We attribute this finding to the excess demand for Islamic investment certificates and to an adverse selection mechanism that favors sukuk issuance by lower-quality debtor companies.     

The effect of Airbnb announcements on hotel stock prices

The sharing economy model that was developed in the last decade has a major effect on a different aspect of life. The purpose of this research is to test the effect of a sharing economy product on its competitors. Specifically, this study used the event study approach to examine how Airbnb announcements affected hotel stock prices. To accomplish this goal, we used 180 Airbnb announcements to investigate the general effect of Airbnb, and the effects according to the type of announcement and the type of audience. The findings indicate that general Airbnb announcements have a negative effect on the hotel stock prices. In addition, investors respond negatively to positive announcements but not to neutral ones. Finally, announcements targeting young people have no effect on the stock prices of hotel companies, while the effect of announcements targeting families lasts the longest. We also explored investment strategies for general investors and those with inside information. We suggest that general investors short sell the stock on the day of the news announcement. Investors with inside information should short sell the stock a few days before the day of the news announcement. In both cases, investors should close their positions a few days later depending on the type of announcement.     

金融系统气候风险的评估、定价与政策应对:基于文献的评述

减缓和适应气候变化是人类社会21世纪面临的最重要议题。气候变化不仅对人身和社会财富安全构成威胁,而且影响金融系统的稳定性。气候变化通过物理风险和转型风险渠道影响金融部门,前者主要表现为直接物理损失,后者则与高碳行业的资产搁浅有关。通过金融市场的传染,转型风险有可能引发新一轮的金融系统性风险。气候金融风险具有高度不确定性以及厚尾分布的特点,对现有建模和评估方法提出挑战。央行以及金融监管机构作为维护价格和金融稳定的执行机构,应考虑将气候金融风险纳入监管之中,推动各方金融参与者披露相关气候风险,完善数据平台建设,并应进一步采取适当的货币政策和宏观审慎政策,激励资金向低碳部门流动。     

Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability

Previous studies of the short-run response of daily stock prices to announcements of macroeconomic news could be biased when responses in different scenarios cancel each other out. In our analysis of inflation news in the Spanish stock market, we consider market direction arguments and implement our study based on the sector of activity to control for the ‘flow-through’ ability of the firms in each industry. In general, our results are quite consistent with the ‘market direction’ and the ‘flow-through’ hypotheses. Unanticipated inflation news implies abnormal returns depending on the direction of the news, the state of the economy and the flow-through ability of the sector. The impact of positive surprises affects the abnormal returns of many more sectors than does the impact of negative surprises, especially in the low states of economy. These significant effects are mainly observed in industries that are characterised by low flow-through ability.     

Information advantage,short sales,and stock returns: Evidence from short selling reform in China

We study short selling around earnings announcements and examine the potential sources of their information. Using unique daily aggregate short selling transactions in China, we find that short sellers significantly increase (decrease) their short positions before negative (positive) earnings surprise. In addition, abnormal high short selling is significantly associated with negative post-earnings announcement stock returns. The findings suggest that short sellers, on average, are informed and sophisticated traders and they can exploit profitable opportunities contained in earnings announcements. Finally, we find that stocks with poor governance or more insiders have higher (lower) abnormal short selling in negative (positive) earnings surprise, indicating private information leakage from firms with weak governance; which is consistent with the tipping argument. Our findings have important policy implications for capital market regulation in China.     

Open technology innovation activity and firm value: evidence from Korean firms

Despite the importance of Open Technology Innovation Activity (OTIA) for firm value, the literature investigating effects of OTIA announcements of developing country firms is not known in international academic circles. Our study using an event study approach examines the effects of OTIA (technology import and joint R&D) announcements of firms in Korea, one of the leading developing and highly innovative countries. We find that the announcements of OTIA produce positive average abnormal returns. Interestingly, unlike the prior studies on developed country firms, OTIA with firms in the homogenous industry leads to greater firm value than that involving firms in heterogenic industries. This implies an importance of a technological fusion with external firms in different industries for value of developing country firms. In addition, this article finds no home bias that a nationality of partner firms is not essential for the relation between OTIA and value of firms.     

An empirical analysis of stock returns around dividend changes

This paper documents significant drift in stock returns following announcements of changes in cash dividends. The magnitude is (i) smaller for increases than for decreases, (ii) inversely related to firm size and positively to dividend yield change, and (iii) concentrated in the first quarter. Beta changes do not explain the drift and it is robust in various subperiods. Next it is shown that dividend increases are positively autocorrelated especially every fourth quarter. The prices keep reacting to future announcements as if the market ignores these autocorrelations. Dividend decreases exhibit weak autocorrelation and the returns are negative for the following three announcements.     

Stock market reaction to dividend announcements: Evidence from the Greek stock market

This study investigates the market reaction to cash dividend announcements for the period 2000–2004 employing data from the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). In particular, the paper examines both the stock price and trading volume response to dividend distribution announcements. Dividend distributions in Greece demonstrate noticeable differences to those of the US, the UK and other developed markets. First, dividends in Greece are paid annually rather than quarterly or semi-annually. Second, the Greek corporate laws 2190/1920 and 148/1967 specifically designate the minimum amount for distribution from the taxed corporate profits. Third, neither tax on dividends nor on capital gains was imposed during the period under examination. Fourth, Greek listed firms are characterized by high ownership concentration where major owners are usually involved in management and therefore have less need for dividend announcements as an information source. Despite this neutralized information and tax environment, we document significant market reaction to dividend change announcements, lending support to the “information content of dividends hypothesis”.     

Unexpected Share Repurchase Announcements

Abstract

Open-market stock repurchase announcements are generally perceived by the stock market as a signal of firm undervaluation. Our study shows that repurchase announcements that were preceded by SEOs of other firms in the same industry within the prior six months (namely SEO-RPs) are more likely the result of lacking investment opportunities than signaling undervaluation, especially in concentrated industries. Specifically, we find investors response negatively to SEO-RP announcements while react positively to regular repurchase announcements. The higher the intensity of SEO activities in the industry, the more negative market reaction to SEO-RP announcements. We argue that the market doesn’t expect a repurchase announcement when other rival firms are raising more capital via SEOs. These SEO-RPs represent a negative surprise to the market and lead to a downward adjustment in value of the repurchasing firms in the announcement window. In the three-year post-announcement periods, the SEO-RP firms underperform regular repurchasing firms in both stock return and operating performance. Moreover, while regular repurchasing firms gradually increase their capital expenditures, SEO-RP firms significantly reduce their capital expenditures. These findings support our arguments that repurchase announcements that immediately follow SEOs of rival firms (SEO-RPs) more likely indicate the announcing firms entering a slower growth rate with fewer investment opportunities than signal the undervaluation problem. The underperformance in stock return and operation combined with a significant reduction in capital expenditures in the post-announcement periods are consistent with this logic and also explain why the market reacts negatively to SEO-RP announcements.     

Pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating changes on stock returns: a fact or factoid?

This article examines the effect of changes in sovereign credit ratings and their outlook on the stock market returns of European countries at different phases of business cycle. Using standard four-factor model, it records a significant average marginal effect of credit rating announcements on stock market returns. Both magnitude and significance of the effect vary with business cycle and across announcement types. However, we do not find evidence of pro-cyclical effect of sovereign rating and outlook changes on stock returns. Our results show that stock markets react more negatively to rating downgrades in recovery phases and more positively to rating upgrades in contractionary period. Both results are statistically significant and robust to various sensitivity tests.     

Managerial Expectations of Synergy and the Performance of Acquiring Firms: The Contribution of Soft Data

This study examines whether the “soft” information present in merger and acquisition (M&A) announcement press releases contains incrementally valuable news relative to traditional “hard” data. Using the methodology of Loughran and McDonald [2011], we construct measures of synergy expectations and managerial optimism for more than 1,200 M&A announcements over the period 1995–2007. We find that synergy expectations are positively related to announcement period returns, longer-run performance, and the market's reaction to quarterly earnings announcements. Managerial optimism is insignificant for explaining a merger's subsequent performance. We conclude that the soft information contained in M&A announcements concerning synergy expectations can provide useful information to investors.     

Overflow effect of credit rating announcements on stock exchange based on event study

This study is aimed to identify the impact of credit rating announcements on the stock returns in stock markets and for this purpose, four different sectors of Pakistan stock exchange were selected and from each of these four sectors, different business organizations were selected, i.e. total 32 business organizations were selected. The credit rating announcement data were collected for these 32 business organizations belonging to four different sectors. Totally 101 credit rating announcements were selected and the time period for which the credit rating warnings were selected include last three years period, i.e. from 2014 to 2016. The collected data were analysed by calculating abnormal returns for each of the selected security and average abnormal returns, and cumulative average abnormal returns were calculated for four different sectors. Event study methodology was applied, and t-test and t-stats value were calculated and results were analysed on the basis of t-statistics. The results of analysis identified that credit rating announcements have a significant impact on stock prices and investors and other market participants are earning abnormal returns during two-day period after the announcements are made. In addition, these abnormal returns were either negative or positive, depending upon the nature of credit ratings announced. If the credit rating announced was upgraded, investors enjoyed positive abnormal returns while in case when credit rating announcements were downgraded, then investors bear negative abnormal returns. Finally, the findings of the study identified the applicability of random walk hypothesis on the Pakistan Stock Exchange and Pakistan Stock Exchange confirms the efficient market hypothesis with its semi-strong form of efficiency.     

R&D, patents and stock return volatility

Recent finance literature highlights the role of technological change in increasing firm specific (idiosyncratic) and aggregate stock return volatility, yet innovation data is not used in these analyses, leaving the direct relationship between innovation and stock return volatility untested. The paper investigates the relationship between volatility and innovation using firm level patent data. The analysis builds on the empirical work by Mazzucato (Rev Econ Dyn 5:318–345, 2002; J Evol Econ 13(5):491–512, 2003) where it is found that stock return volatility is highest during periods in the industry life-cycle when innovation is the most ‘radical’. In this paper we ask whether firms which invest more in innovation (more R&D and more patents) and/or which have more important innovations (patents with more citations) experience more volatility in their returns. Given that returns should in theory be higher, on average, for higher risk stocks, we also look at the effect of innovation on the level of returns. To take into account the competition between firms within industries, firm returns and volatility are measured relative to the industry average. We focus the analysis on firms in the pharmaceutical industry between 1974 and 1999. Results suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between volatility, R&D intensity and the various patent related measures—especially when the innovation measures are filtered to distinguish the very innovative firms from the less innovate ones.     

Clean Energy Trade Governance: Reconciling Trade Liberalism and Climate Interventionism?

Scaling-up clean energy is vital to global efforts to address climate change. Promoting international trade in clean energy products (e.g. wind turbines, solar panels) can make an important contribution to this end through business and market expansion effects. If ratified, the landmark Paris COP21 Agreement will commit states to firmer climate actions, this necessarily requiring them to strengthen their promotion of clean energy technologies. Well over a hundred countries already have active policies in this area, many including industrial policy measures that impact on the international competitiveness of their clean energy sector. At the same time, governments have gradually liberalised their clean energy trade regimes, and large producers are negotiating an Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA). Clean energy trade is expanding and disputes among nations in this sector are growing. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) still has limited ‘policy space’ for climate action. Meanwhile, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) still had narrow and infrequent connections with trade matters. Moreover, WTO-UNFCCC engagement on trade-climate issues overall has been largely confined to information sharing and secretariat-level dialogue. This paper explores the extent to which clean energy trade is currently governed, where certain governance gaps and deficiencies exists, and argues why addressing them could help expand trade in clean energy products. It also contends that the most fundamental challenge for the future governance of clean energy trade concerns how to reconcile ramped-up interventionist climate action with an essentially liberal trade order.     

Monetary announcements and stock prices in Israel

Responses of stock prices to monetary announcements in Israel are examined. Only the unexpected part of monetary injection announcements are found to have a significant impact on stock prices. Unlike findings for the U.S., this impact is positive.     

The financial consequences of abolishing a carbon trading system

We investigate the impact of 61 announcements of environmental regulations on the equities listed on the Australian Stock Exchange over the period 2009–2015. In particular, our study focuses on how the stock market reacts to announcements of the abolishment of carbon trading/pricing system. Using event study methodology, we assess whether these announcements create or destroy wealth of equity investors. Furthermore, we estimate changes in systematic risk following the announcements. In general, we find that the abolishment of the carbon pricing system has a positive effect on 18 sectors and the process of removing the carbon pricing system appears to affect the systematic risk of businesses leading to diamond risk structures. We also document negative reactions of polluting sectors to the announcements of green policies.     

Evaluating the risk premium in the U.S.A. natural gas market: evidence from low-price regime

In recent years, the U.S.A. natural gas market has seen enormous changes. The expectations of abundant supply of shale gas and the slow U.S.A. economic recovery have pushed gas prices below US$ 4 MMBtu. Although shale gas is a new promising source of unconventional energy, investors face uncertain investment plans. In this study, we investigate the risk premium by comparing behaviour before and after the change point in agents risk perception. Unlike traditional empirical research on risk premium, we use the parametric, two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000) to evaluate the implied risk premium term structure from futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). We compare our findings with other empirical results and find that the change point lies at the beginning of the low-price regime. When we compare periods before and after the change point, we observe that the risk premium changed, not only in sign, but also in magnitude.     

How stock markets react to regulatory sanctions? Evidence from France

Our study of how the stock market reacts to sanction announcements by the French financial regulator from 2004 to 2017 finds that the market reacts negatively when a sanction is announced in the press. Cross-sectional regression models show that the penalties are too low to influence market reactions. Our results suggest that after the financial crisis of 2008, a plethora of news on financial wrongdoings has desensitized markets to announcements of sanctions against large companies.