The analysis of consumer demand in Greece. Model selection and dynamic specification

The paper analyses the pattern of consumer demand in Greece exploring systematically the questions of the functional form of demand that best fits the data, the appropriate dynamic structure and the empirical validity of the constraints of demand theory. A general dynamic Almost Ideal demand model for four categories of consumer non-durables for the period 1958–1994 is estimated. The maintained specification rejects the static AI, its counterparts implied by the partial adjustment and autoregressive disturbances models and, upon applying a non-nested test, the Rotterdam specification. However, it cannot reject homogeneity and symmetry nor the hypothesis of structural stability.     

The demand for home-produced and imported alcoholic beverages in Cyprus: the AIDS approach

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the demand and its composition between home-produced and imported for alcoholic beverages in Cyprus. The methodological approach used is the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), both in static and dynamic terms. Empirically, the AIDS, both in its static and dynamic version, was estimated using time-series (1970-1992) for three sets of data which include: (1) alcoholic beverages (wine-beer-other brandies) broken down between home-produced and imported (model A); (2) alcoholic beverages only without disaggregation between home-produced and imported (model B), and (3) aggregate alcoholic beverages (wine-beer-other brandies) and food (model C). Zellner's iterative estimation procedure was used for estimating the model. The empirical findings: (1) strongly support the dynamic version of the AIDS over its static alternative; and (2) provide certain guidelines concerning economic policies relating to an increase in government revenues and changing the composition between home-produced and imported consumption of alcoholic beverages. These basic findings could be considered relevant to the policy makers in the light of Cyprus' accession to the EU.     

Advertising and US alcoholic beverage demand: system-wide estimates

The effects of advertising on consumption of alcoholic beverages in the US are analysed. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of advertising at the level of beverage demand(beer, wine, spirits) and for total consumption of alcohol (per capita gallons of ethanol). A three-equation conditional demand system is estimated that includes own- and cros-beverage advertising as explanatory variables. Four models of the differential demand system are estimated, including the Rotterdam, AID, CBS, and NBR models, using annual US data for the period 1964-90 on beverage consumption, prices, expednitures, and real advertising. Estimates are obtained of the complete matrix of own- and cross-elascities for each beverage’ price and advertising. At the beverage level, the results indicate a positive butr very small effect of advertising on beverage consumption, with most of the impact due to wine advertising and non due to beer advertising. There is no efect of advertising in the composite demand function for alcohol. Hence, the results from system-wide modelling suggest that alcohol advertising serves to reallocate brand sales, with no effect on total ethanol consumption and very small effects on beverage consumption.     

Re-examining the economic determinants of alcohol consumption in Canada: controlling for the presence of common correlated effects

Alcoholic beverages represent both an important source of revenue and a driver of expenditure for provincial governments in Canada. As a result, the pricing of alcoholic beverages has substantial public policy implications. In this context, we re-examine existing work estimating the demand for three classes of alcoholic beverage (beer, wine, and spirits) by controlling for common correlated effects. The results reveal that any conclusions regarding the government’s ability to influence alcohol consumption is sensitive to the assumption that the relationship between the demand for alcoholic beverages and economic variables is identical across provinces.     

Economic and demographic factors in U.S. alcohol demand: A growth-accounting analysis

During the 1980s, per capita consumption of absolute ethanol in the U.S. declined by 14 percent. In 1979, consumption was 2.94 gallons per capita compared to 2.52 gallons in 1989. The objective of this paper is to explain the decline in consumption, both for total ethanol and by beverage. The historical growth of ethanol demand is decomposed into several components, with emphasis on the role of relative prices, real income, and demographic factors. Using the Rotterdam model of a demand system, I first estimate the conditional demand for ethanol for each of the three beverages (beer, wine, distilled spirits). Second, I estimate the composite demand for total ethanol. Both sets of estimates are obtained using quarterly data for the period 1974–90. The estimates are tested for conformity with the theoretical restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry, and negativity. The decomposition analysis indicates a positive net effect for the combined impact of autonomous trend, real income growth, and relative price changes, both for total ethanol and each of the three beverages. The negative growth of per capita ethanol consumption is attributable to an increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over and a simultaneous decline in the proportion of the population aged 18–29.     

Alcohol content and demand for alcoholic beverages: A system approach

This paper examines how alcohol content affects the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Finland. Three different quality hypotheses are studied and compared: Fisher and Shell, Theil, and an additive one. The comparison of the hypotheses is based on quality elasticities implied by the hypotheses. The results show that, under all hypotheses, alcohol content positively affects the demand for alcoholic beverages, and this effect depends negatively on income. The results of the comparison of the hypotheses show that the additive fits the data best. However, the other hypotheses are almost as good: Fisher and Shell's hypothesis better than Theil's.I would like to thank K. Koskela, A. Nyberg, M. Salo, M. Stenius, and I. Suoniemi for their useful comments and suggestions. The author bears sole responsibility for any remaining errors.     

Cross-country alcohol consumption comparison: an application of the Rotterdam demand system

This paper analyses the consumption patterns of the three beverages beer, wine and spirits in nine countries, Australia, Canada, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US, using the Rotterdam demand system. A cross-country comparison of the results shows that in most countries (i)wine consumption has grown at a fasteer rate than beer and spirits; (ii) the proportion of consumers' expenditure on alcohol is declining; (iii)beer is a necessity and spirits is a luxury; (iv)the demand for the three beverages is price inelastic; and (iv)all three beverages are pair-wise substitutes. We also investigated the hypothesis of identical parameters for all countries by pooling the data across countries and found that the data do not support the hypothesis.     

Forecasting the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Finland: A box-Jenkins approach

In this report the results of identifying, estimating and diagnostically checking short-term rational distributed lag (transfer function) models for forecasting the consumption of alcoholic beverages other than beer in Finland are reviewed and compared with some other Scandinavian studies. The output of models is the logarithm of the monthly consumption of alcoholic beverages while the only specified input is the logarithm of the price index of alcoholic beverages. Other explanatory variables are included in the ARIMA noise. The importance of the price variable is demonstrated by comparing ex post predictions obtained using different methods.     

Expenditure elasticities of the demand for leisure services

Although some research has already focused on the analysis of expenditure elasticities of leisure demand, some shortcomings with regard to the content and the underlying theoretical model as well as the applied methods exist. This article aims at avoiding these problems to provide consistent derivatives of leisure service expenditure elasticities. Therefore, a regular demand system is derived from microeconomic duality theory. To implement leisure specific demand factors (i.e. demand- and supply-based sports and recreational opportunities as well as sports and recreational preferences) while still being consistent with neoclassical demand theory, the basic model is extended by applying the demographic translation framework. Data of the continuous household budget survey (n?=?7724) from Germany is used for the estimation of the derived demand system. It is shown how sensitive the results are depending on the applied (censored) regression model: 16 out of 18 analysed services are indicated as luxury goods based on the findings of the Tobit model type I but as necessities based on the findings of the Tobit model type II. Possible implications are presented and discussed.     

Understanding alcohol consumption across countries

ABSTRACT

With unpublished data from the International Comparison Program that cover the consumption of three alcoholic beverages in over 150 countries, we analyse drinking patterns around the world with an index-number approach, by estimating a demand system, and by studying the interaction among beverages in generating utility. We consider a separate demand system for each income quartile and find that tastes are not too different across quartiles. Broadly speaking, the results are robust to rolling sub-samples of countries, an alternative demand model and sample selectivity issues. The differences in the cost of alcohol across countries are also investigated, as is its role in affecting the degree of price-sensitivity of consumption.     

Economic determinants of the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Canada: a panel data analysis

In this article, the economic determinants of the demand for three alcoholic beverages (wine, spirits, and beer) are investigated with a focus on the price, income and unemployment effects. The investigation is conducted within the fixed effects panel regression framework using a balanced panel for ten Canadian provinces spanning the years 1981–2004. The estimated own price elasticities indicate that increased government taxation is an effective tool for curtailing the consumption of spirits (at the expense of lower government tax revenue), but it is less effective for curtailing the consumption of wine or beer. The cross-price elasticity estimates reveal that taxing beer or spirits may not be an effective tool for encouraging consumption switch from these alcoholic beverages to wine in light of wine’s greater health benefits. Income emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of both wine and spirits but not of beer, whereas unemployment emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of beer but not of wine or spirits. With respect to unemployment, we find no support for the addiction hypothesis in the case of wine and spirits and strong support for the severe budget constraint hypothesis in the case of beer.     

On the flexibility of the Rotterdam model

The Rotterdam model is a discrete approximation to a continuous time model and the approximation errors are known to be small. Unlike other approximations, with fixed parameters at the point of approximation, the Rotterdam model's coefficients differ at each observation, but are treated as constants during estimation. This procedure introduces relatively large approximation errors which are a potential source of bias. In this paper the performance of the Rotterdam model in reproducing the characteristics of four integrable demand systems is assessed. As anticipated, the model's performance is directly related to the variability of the underlying coefficients and the bias in the parameter estimates is minimal if the coefficients are relatively constant. The model can also discriminate well against an invalid alternative hypothesis. However, in the absence of a computationally feasible varying parameter methodology the conclusion has to be that tests of parameter stability are essential when using the Rotterdam model.     

Consumer allocation models: Choice of functional form

The functional form of consumer allocation models should be able to satisfy theoretical properties derived from the theory of consumer demand. The paper sketches four approaches that meet this condition. Of course, also empirical performance matters. Next to naive goodness-of-fit comparison, non-nested hypothesis testing can be employed. The latter technique is applied to a comparison of four versions of differential demand systems: the Rotterdam system, a version of the Almost Ideal Demand (AID) system, the CBS system and the NBR system. These systems are artificially nested in a more general model using scalar weights in contrast to Barten and McAleer (1991) who use matrix weights for this purpose. Annual data over the period 1921–1981 for The Netherlands for four major groups of consumer expenditure have been used for the empirical application. The CBS system dominates the others.     

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

The role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.     

An almost ideal demand system for alcoholic beverages in British Columbia

An almost ideal demand system for alcoholic beverages in British Columbia is estimated based on five beverage categories. Estimates of the model unrestricted and restricted to satisfy homogeneity and symmetry are presented. The restrictions are tested: as is common in applied demand analysis a number of rejections are encountered, although within-equation tests tend to support homogeneity. The rejections which are encountered are not mitigated by the inclusion of dynamic elements. The Slutsky matrix is used to examine the concavity of the expenditure function, which is found to be mildly violated. Marshallian and Hicksian own-, cross-price, and income elasticities are calculated and are found to be largely consistent with previous findings, although some noteworthy results are obtained.     

An even simpler differential demand system

Keller (1984) proposed three simple variants of the well-known Rotterdam demand model. This paper proposes an even simpler differential demand system which has some attractive properties and is easy to estimate. The new model is estimated with Dutch and British data.     

Nominal vs real adjustment in demand for money functions

Recently, Fair (1987) has addressd an interesting question in the areas of demand for money, namely, whether the adjustment of actual to desired demand for money is in nominal or real terms. His conclusion, based on time-seies analysis for twenty-seven countries, including a few developing countries, was that the evidence was overwhelmingly in favour of the nominal hypothesis.

The aim of this paper is to address the same issue for eleven Asian countries. In the process, a reformulation of the test procedure used by Fair is suggested. In addition, the question is also examined within the framework of the error correction model. The models are also tested for structural stability.

The scheme of the paper is as follows. The models and the tests are specified in Section I. The data and the estimation issues are dealt with in Section II. Section III presents the results. The paper is concluded with a brief summary of the major findings.     

The theory of rational random behavior and its application to demand analysis

The author's theory of rational random behavior is developed, which distinguishes between the planning and the implementation stage of the decision-maker. Under the assumption of a quadratic loss function and decision variables with an unrestricted range, that theory implies normally distributed disturbances of behavioral equations with a covariance matrix that is known up to a scalar multiple. Those results have to be extended asymptotically by Barbosa for restricted decision variables and a more general loss function. The approach is applied to both the Rotterdam and the linear expenditure demand models: using U.S. postwar data for the former, the author finds that a likelihood ratio test accepts the theory at the 10 percent significance level.     

SIMULATED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION BASED ON FIRST‐ORDER CONDITIONS*

I describe a strategy for structural estimation that uses simulated maximum likelihood (SML) to estimate the structural parameters appearing in a model's first‐order conditions (FOCs). Generalized method of moments (GMM) is often the preferred method for estimation of FOCs, as it avoids distributional assumptions on stochastic terms, provided all structural errors enter the FOCs additively, giving a single composite additive error. But SML has advantages over GMM in models where multiple structural errors enter the FOCs nonadditively. I develop new simulation algorithms required to implement SML based on FOCs, and I illustrate the method using a model of U.S. multinational corporations.